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AFL Braces for Nightmare 2021 Scenario

Demonland
Demonland
in Melbourne Demons

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IMO best case scenario....

Stage 3 vaccine results are due just before Christmas. (let's say 1 December)

Assuming success the vaccines need FDA etc approval... let's say Jan 1

Allowing for production and rollout realistically we are looking May to August before mass vaccinations completed.

So unfortunately 2021 will be a lot like 2020 with at best limited crowds at least for the first half of the season

When will intra Australia borders open up.... who knows

(And then there is the big debate over to what extent vaccinations will be mandatory for mixing in large groups,flying etc)

Edited by Diamond_Jim

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    18 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

    IMO best case scenario....

    Stage 3 vaccine results are due just before Christmas.

    Assuming success the vaccines need FDA etc approval... let's say Jan 1

    Allowing for production and rollout realistically we are looking May to August before mass vaccinations completed.

    So unfortunately 2021 will be a lot like 2020 with at best limited crowds at least for the first half of the season

    When will intra Australia borders open up.... who knows

    (And then there is the big debate over to what extent vaccinations will be mandatory for mixing in large groups,flying etc)

    In Australia it's the TGA

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    It's a bit like the South Asian farmer.  One failed monsoon, you just barely get barely.  Two failed monsoons, you go into debt just to eat and have to borrow for seed stock for the next season.  Three failed monsoons, your children die.

    Personally I'm an optimist about vaccines by 2021, and so long as a reasonable effort is made to not balls everything up until then, first-tranche vaccine targeting can do a lot to contain risk by innoculating major vulnerable and vector populations like transport, retail, crowded facility/factory workers, educators and the all-important health and personal service sectors.

    For what it is worth, I monitor vaccine news very closely and the progress is legitimate.  Don't know what the borsch is going on in Russia though.

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    5 minutes ago, Little Goffy said:

    It's a bit like the South Asian farmer.  One failed monsoon, you just barely get barely.  Two failed monsoons, you go into debt just to eat and have to borrow for seed stock for the next season.  Three failed monsoons, your children die.

    Personally I'm an optimist about vaccines by 2021, and so long as a reasonable effort is made to not balls everything up until then, first-tranche vaccine targeting can do a lot to contain risk by innoculating major vulnerable and vector populations like transport, retail, crowded facility/factory workers, educators and the all-important health and personal service sectors.

    For what it is worth, I monitor vaccine news very closely and the progress is legitimate.  Don't know what the borsch is going on in Russia though.

    Just PM the ticker code of whoever gets the patented vaccine and I'll buy the AFL and run the sh!tshow myself.

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    The optimistic outlook says that, not only do we get reasonable vaccine progress, but we continue to learn from new outbreaks and get better at suppressing outbreaks where needed.

    If we can get 20,000 people into Optus Stadium by July 2020, I'm optimistic we can get a similar amount, if not more, into the MCG by March 2021.

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    1 minute ago, Little Goffy said:

    For what it is worth, I monitor vaccine news very closely and the progress is legitimate.  Don't know what the borsch is going on in Russia though.

    3 possible scenarios in order of likelihood:

    1.  They've developed/stolen an effective vaccine that may result in catastrophic unintended consequences ie. it makes COVID worse.

    2.  They've developed a placebo vaccine that actually does very little, but has little unintended consequences.

    3.  They've developed/stolen an effective vaccine that has few unintended consequences.

    FWIW I'm a glass half empty kind of guy - and considering we've never discovered a vaccine for any other corona virus i'm betting the most likely scenarios in order of likelihood are:

    1.  There will be no vaccine

    2. The vaccine will only have a limited shelf-life in terms of immunisation 6-12 months.

    3.  The vaccine will be effective and offer immunity for longer than 12 months.

    I won't even go into how you immunise 7.8 billion people. 

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    2 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

    If we can get 20,000 people into Optus Stadium by July 2020, I'm optimistic we can get a similar amount, if not more, into the MCG by March 2021.

    The problem is that's way below break even point

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    1 minute ago, Diamond_Jim said:

    The problem is that's way below break even point

    Possibly, where costs were allocated at normal capacity levels.

    Maybe not, if we can reduce costs given we know only a limited number of people can attend.

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    18 minutes ago, Little Goffy said:

    For what it is worth, I monitor vaccine news very closely and the progress is legitimate.  Don't know what the borsch is going on in Russia though.

    I follow it closely and Russia is just doing a slightly looser stage 3. Mass production if done would still be in the new year. Putin just loves playing mind games and he does it very well.

    The real question is even if successful how in the hell do you roll these vaccines out across the world. Usually that would be a five plus year process.

    I still hope for rapid cheap and accurate self testing. That would be a game changer

     

    Edited by Diamond_Jim

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    7 minutes ago, grazman said:

    3 possible scenarios in order of likelihood:

    1.  They've developed/stolen an effective vaccine that may result in catastrophic unintended consequences ie. it makes COVID worse.

    2.  They've developed a placebo vaccine that actually does very little, but has little unintended consequences.

    3.  They've developed/stolen an effective vaccine that has few unintended consequences.

    FWIW I'm a glass half empty kind of guy - and considering we've never discovered a vaccine for any other corona virus i'm betting the most likely scenarios in order of likelihood are:

    1.  There will be no vaccine

    2. The vaccine will only have a limited shelf-life in terms of immunisation 6-12 months.

    3.  The vaccine will be effective and offer immunity for longer than 12 months.

    I won't even go into how you immunise 7.8 billion people. 

    There is no "WE " in misanthrope.

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    13 minutes ago, Biffen said:

    Just PM the ticker code of whoever gets the patented vaccine and I'll buy the AFL and run the sh!tshow myself.

    this is one instance in which I hope the world screws big Pharma and reverse engineers it immediately.

    Cost recovery only and a Nobel prize should be enough.

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    19 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

    The optimistic outlook says that, not only do we get reasonable vaccine progress, but we continue to learn from new outbreaks and get better at suppressing outbreaks where needed.

    If we can get 20,000 people into Optus Stadium by July 2020, I'm optimistic we can get a similar amount, if not more, into the MCG by March 2021.

    Agreed, though I'm sure they're going to have to tell them in the next 3 months or so. So I reckon they'll have to be conservative in who they keep on.

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    3 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

    this is one instance in which I hope the world screws big Pharma and reverse engineers it immediately.

    Cost recovery only and a Nobel prize should be enough.

    Guess who will do that-the same robots that spread the plague .

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    What the world haven't got its head around yet . . . slow training coming . . . 

    The virus has exposed a deeply flawed economic and social model that prioritises excessive opportunism and profiteering at the expense of the peoples' welfare and wellbeing. The fetishisation of money over people is the allegory of the emperor's new clothes for the 21st century. We are all naked now. 

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    1 hour ago, Diamond_Jim said:

    IMO best case scenario....

    Stage 3 vaccine results are due just before Christmas. (let's say 1 December)

    Assuming success the vaccines need FDA etc approval... let's say Jan 1

    Allowing for production and rollout realistically we are looking May to August before mass vaccinations completed.

    So unfortunately 2021 will be a lot like 2020 with at best limited crowds at least for the first half of the season

    When will intra Australia borders open up.... who knows

    (And then there is the big debate over to what extent vaccinations will be mandatory for mixing in large groups,flying etc)

    There are 8 candidates in phase 3

    i don’t know enough about this to speak to the likely outcome of these

    however, one must turn ones mind to the logistics and prioritisation of vaccine delivery to this worlds souls

    assuming CSL/ csiro have a part to play it’s probably fair to assume the vulnerable are prioritised

    i suspect fit 20-30 year olds who need one to facilitate delivery of a football season won’t be top of list but I could be wrong 

     

    as always follow the money

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    32 minutes ago, Queanbeyan Demon said:

    What the world haven't got its head around yet . . . slow training coming . . . 

    The virus has exposed a deeply flawed economic and social model that prioritises excessive opportunism and profiteering at the expense of the peoples' welfare and wellbeing. The fetishisation of money over people is the allegory of the emperor's new clothes for the 21st century. We are all naked now. 

    Ugh, go on, tell us how a winning version of socialism is the way to go.

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    1 hour ago, Little Goffy said:

    It's a bit like the South Asian farmer.  One failed monsoon, you just barely get barely.  Two failed monsoons, you go into debt just to eat and have to borrow for seed stock for the next season.  Three failed monsoons, your children die.

    Personally I'm an optimist about vaccines by 2021, and so long as a reasonable effort is made to not balls everything up until then, first-tranche vaccine targeting can do a lot to contain risk by innoculating major vulnerable and vector populations like transport, retail, crowded facility/factory workers, educators and the all-important health and personal service sectors.

    For what it is worth, I monitor vaccine news very closely and the progress is legitimate.  Don't know what the borsch is going on in Russia though.

    It will be interesting to see the modelling on what the threshold is for herd immunity. E.g. if 70% of the population has antibodies either through recovering from the virus or being vaccinated is this enough to isolate any community transmission.

    Also, is there any medical reason why the movement of those who have recovered from Covid-19 should be limited if they lose no risk of transmission? Personally I'd rather not contract the desease, but it will be fascinating to see how countries that adopt an elimination v suppression v herd immunity strategy fare.

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    50 minutes ago, Queanbeyan Demon said:

    What the world haven't got its head around yet . . . slow training coming . . . 

    The virus has exposed a deeply flawed economic and social model that prioritises excessive opportunism and profiteering at the expense of the peoples' welfare and wellbeing. The fetishisation of money over people is the allegory of the emperor's new clothes for the 21st century. We are all naked now. 

    People will jump on straw men arguments against this (like ‘tell us how socialism will fix this’) but you are correct. This is nothing to do with political agenda but the kind of historically observable transition that happens in societies when our understandings and functions of labour, resources and economy change. This is exactly what is happening now. Change is the only guaranteed thing and to immediately reject alternative ideas is to worsen the shock of the change for yourself.

    Fetishisation of money is a great way to see it. And just like fetishes, not everybody has it. I’d wager that most of us want all of us to be able to live happy lives, and constantly striving for growth and profit has proven itself inept at achieving this.

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    52 minutes ago, Queanbeyan Demon said:

    What the world haven't got its head around yet . . . slow training coming . . . 

    The virus has exposed a deeply flawed economic and social model that prioritises excessive opportunism and profiteering at the expense of the peoples' welfare and wellbeing. The fetishisation of money over people is the allegory of the emperor's new clothes for the 21st century. We are all naked now. 

    If only we could eat and shelter with homilies and glib phrases.

    Come up with a better economic solution or spare me the eulogy .

     

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    5 minutes ago, Biffen said:

    If only we could eat and shelter with homilies and glib phrases.

    Come up with a better economic solution or spare me the eulogy .

     

    Haha, mate ideas don’t come about unless we talk about stuff. Very weak response IMO.

    without derailing further, look at AFL. It is bigger business, flashier and more profit driven than ever. Do we enjoy it more than our forebears in the 50s or 80s did? I doubt it. What matters and what we love is footy, but we are sold the flashiness and     spectacle and we lap it up without it really adding much more to our passion for our teams.

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    1 hour ago, Diamond_Jim said:

     

    I still hope for rapid cheap and accurate self testing. That would be a game changer

     

    Saw an interview about a week ago (cant remember what channel it was on but its on Youtube) with the CEO of an Aussie Pharma company who has 10 minutes at home tests ready to roll out... he contacted the Vic government and was told he would get a response in 8-10 weeks.

    Its almost as if they don't want a solution.  

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