4 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

I guess stats can tell a story.  But a key fact is we have about 2,000 active cases and nearly 1,000 cases for which they don't know the source, NSW have a handful.  Even at 1:1 that is still thousands of new cases in Victoria.

And Vic are struggling (poorly resourced/poor management) to do the contact tracing so how many more are out there spreading it around.  I may have been hasty saying it is out of control but it sure as hell ain't in control.

I'm pretty sure it's a binary situation. If it's not under control it must be out of control! But I know what you're saying.

And like I said, I don't know what's being measured let alone exactly what it means. Does Demonland have a resident epidemiologist lurking under a euphemism who can explain more?

The R factor is a little illusory but in simple terms it's  a measure of infection progression. If Victoria had a R factor of 1.5 we would be in big trouble in a short while.

At an R rate of 1.1 a thousand cases becomes 25000 cases in 60 days

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/05/covid-19-what-is-the-r-number/

By lockdowns you depress the R rate simply by limiting the exposure each infected person has to others.

Without lockdowns the R rate of this virus is estimated to be between 2-2.5 and by some as high as 6.(enormous numbers)

BTW measles has a R rate much higher than this virus but vaccines prevent infection.

Stay safe all.

Ablett going home to Geelong for 2 weeks due to injury.

Not sure how that works when he tries to return to a hub.

Being in Geelong may make it easier but Greater Geelong could easily be added to Melbourne in this lockdown. Given the degree of commuting between Geelong and the CBD I was surprised they weren't included in some form.

2 hours ago, Diamond_Jim said:

Ablett going home to Geelong for 2 weeks due to injury.

Not sure how that works when he tries to return to a hub.

Being in Geelong may make it easier but Greater Geelong could easily be added to Melbourne in this lockdown. Given the degree of commuting between Geelong and the CBD I was surprised they weren't included in some form.

Sadly, his little boy is very seriously ill.  Taken to RCH last night.

Ablett will probably miss a month.

Edited July 18, 20204 yr by Lucifer's Hero

1 hour ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Sadly, his little boy is very seriously ill.  Taken to RCH last night.

Ablett will probably miss a month.

Thanks LH

there is nothing sadder than a sick child... I am sure everyone wishes him well soon

By comparison football is irrelevant

Hoping for : 

Rd 9  Kangas v Dees at Gabba (Sunday afternoon 3/35)

Rd 10  Dees v Bulldogs at Metricon (Sunday early 12/35) 

Rd 11 Dees v Pies at Gabba (Friday night 7/50) 

Rd 3 catchup Bombers v Dees (Wed night 7/35) at Gabba

Rd 12 Saints v Dees at Metricon ( Tuesday night 7/35) 

Rd 13 Dees v Dockers at Alice Springs (Sunday twilight 4/35)

Rd 14 Swans v Dees at SCG (Saturday twilight 5pm)

Rd 15 Dees v Giants at Gabba (Saturday early 2pm) 

Rd 16 Crows v Dees at AO (Saturday early 2pm) 

Rd 17 Dees v Power at Gabba (  A Friday night top 4 clash - after Dees win last 7 games to go 11-5 leading into the final round) ????

 

thanks be to the Gillon mcburger !! 

Wangaratta anyone?

 

34 minutes ago, Demonland said:

Wangaratta anyone?

 

Better than Geelong!

If the State Government had been a little more pro-active we could have based some teams in country Victoria. The biggest problem would have been air connectivity but with the boost that it would have given to the regions the State gov't could have picked up that tab.

Instead we have allowed Anna to declaim Qld as the "safe haven".

Mildura, Wang and Albury would have made great hubs along with Wagga and perhaps Renmark.

I can smell some Friday night games coming our way if we keep yesterday's watchable footy going.

On 7/19/2020 at 2:42 PM, Diamond_Jim said:

If the State Government had been a little more pro-active we could have based some teams in country Victoria. The biggest problem would have been air connectivity but with the boost that it would have given to the regions the State gov't could have picked up that tab.

Instead we have allowed Anna to declaim Qld as the "safe haven".

Mildura, Wang and Albury would have made great hubs along with Wagga and perhaps Renmark.

How would teams based outside Victoria get to country Victorian towns? I assume the moment they fly into Melbourne airport they're in the lockdown area which automatically means bans or 14 day quarantines when they return to wherever their home base might be. Is Avalon airport inside the locked down Greater Melbourne area? If not, perhaps they could fly in there, although if it's not in Greater Melbourne, it's probably in Greater Geelong which could be added to lockdown at any moment.   

I like your parochial thinking, but I doubt it was ever possible irrespective of any State Government pro-activity. Also, to be fair to the State Government, it's probably got a few other priorities to concentrate on right now than the AFL competition.

On 7/16/2020 at 6:59 PM, Nasher said:

@Skuitwill be happy!

The public declaration that I would attend three games a week was one of those grand statements you make when you think there's no actual chance you'll ever actually have to follow through on the commitment. 

'Baby. Leave your husband and we'll run away to a tropical island"

"Oh. You actually left your husband?"

The above is a joke. Attending a Fremantle vs. St Kilda match is not. 

 

i have a real question though. As it stands the MFC and Essendon are on a minor crash-course for a spot in the eight. There was talk at some stage of slotting us in if necessary the week before the finals, if needed. Clearly not fair - compared to other teams which have already qualified and played the one less 'elimination' match. With all the provisos in place, what is a fair outcome? 

14 minutes ago, Skuit said:

i have a real question though. As it stands the MFC and Essendon are on a minor crash-course for a spot in the eight. There was talk at some stage of slotting us in if necessary the week before the finals, if needed. Clearly not fair - compared to other teams which have already qualified and played the one less 'elimination' match. With all the provisos in place, what is a fair outcome? 

Clubs might be getting a mid-season bye at some stage so I'd imagine we'll play Essendon on a stand alone weekend.

19 minutes ago, Skuit said:

i have a real question though. As it stands the MFC and Essendon are on a minor crash-course for a spot in the eight. There was talk at some stage of slotting us in if necessary the week before the finals, if needed. Clearly not fair - compared to other teams which have already qualified and played the one less 'elimination' match. With all the provisos in place, what is a fair outcome? 

If you asked Slobbo the answer would be one that clearly benefits the bombers

27 minutes ago, Skuit said:

i have a real question though. As it stands the MFC and Essendon are on a minor crash-course for a spot in the eight. There was talk at some stage of slotting us in if necessary the week before the finals, if needed. Clearly not fair - compared to other teams which have already qualified and played the one less 'elimination' match. With all the provisos in place, what is a fair outcome? 

Reading between the lines, I'm expecting to see the traditional 'Round-by-Round' fixture replaced, at least for a while, with a more, dare I say, "flexible and agile" format where some clubs will play more games than others over a 3-4 week period. It will make the ladder a little less relevant during that time with some clubs perhaps having played 10 games while others might only have played 7 or 8. This might make it easier for schdeduling but play merry havoc with footy tipping competitions. If it happens like this, the Melbourne v Essendon game will be just like any other game and played when a suitable date becomes available.  

On 7/19/2020 at 1:55 PM, Demonland said:

Wangaratta anyone?

 

In deference to the new world order and the movement to change place names to something more appropriate to the current time, may I suggest “Wankaratta”?

On 7/19/2020 at 12:07 PM, spirit of norm smith said:

Hoping for : 

Rd 9  Kangas v Dees at Gabba (Sunday afternoon 3/35)

Rd 10  Dees v Bulldogs at Metricon (Sunday early 12/35) 

Rd 11 Dees v Pies at Gabba (Friday night 7/50) 

Rd 3 catchup Bombers v Dees (Wed night 7/35) at Gabba

Rd 12 Saints v Dees at Metricon ( Tuesday night 7/35) 

Rd 13 Dees v Dockers at Alice Springs (Sunday twilight 4/35)

Rd 14 Swans v Dees at SCG (Saturday twilight 5pm)

Rd 15 Dees v Giants at Gabba (Saturday early 2pm) 

Rd 16 Crows v Dees at AO (Saturday early 2pm) 

Rd 17 Dees v Power at Gabba (  A Friday night top 4 clash - after Dees win last 7 games to go 11-5 leading into the final round) ????

 

thanks be to the Gillon mcburger !! 

Odds on, we play North in Tassie.

10 minutes ago, Demonland said:

In deference to the new world order and the movement to change place names to something more appropriate to the current time, may I suggest “Wankaratta”?

Which is marginally better than Wancorona.

 

Sorry, everyone.

On 7/19/2020 at 12:07 PM, spirit of norm smith said:

Hoping for : 

Rd 9  Kangas v Dees at Gabba (Sunday afternoon 3/35)

Rd 10  Dees v Bulldogs at Metricon (Sunday early 12/35) 

Rd 11 Dees v Pies at Gabba (Friday night 7/50) 

Rd 3 catchup Bombers v Dees (Wed night 7/35) at Gabba

Rd 12 Saints v Dees at Metricon ( Tuesday night 7/35) 

Rd 13 Dees v Dockers at Alice Springs (Sunday twilight 4/35)

Rd 14 Swans v Dees at SCG (Saturday twilight 5pm)

Rd 15 Dees v Giants at Gabba (Saturday early 2pm) 

Rd 16 Crows v Dees at AO (Saturday early 2pm) 

Rd 17 Dees v Power at Gabba (  A Friday night top 4 clash - after Dees win last 7 games to go 11-5 leading into the final round) ????

 

thanks be to the Gillon mcburger !! 

 

So we still have 4 games to come vs the clear worst 4 teams in the league.  (Sydney, Freo, NM, Adelaide).

We are well set up to finish strongly.

1 minute ago, Pickett2Jackson said:

 

So we still have 4 games to come vs the clear worst 4 teams in the league.  (Sydney, Freo, NM, Adelaide).

We are well set up to finish strongly.

Most think 9 wins needed to play finals. That would get us to 7.

Essendon haven't really beaten anyone of note. That'd be 8. Pinch one more and we're just about there.

12 minutes ago, Pickett2Jackson said:

 

So we still have 4 games to come vs the clear worst 4 teams in the league.  (Sydney, Freo, NM, Adelaide).

We are well set up to finish strongly.

Things change, 2 weeks ago we were clearly (rated as) one of the worst teams. Not saying it’s completely flipped but teams rise and fall through the year. 

Still getting the likes of Richmond, WC, Geelong, and Brisbane away early could open up our draw. Even more so if we somehow get the W against the Lions. 

Any news in when rounds 9-12 are being announced.  Hopefully soon. Get on board Dees for finals. ?

AFL must have the actuarial service working overtime on the draw to work on algorithms and scenarios.  

7 minutes ago, Pates said:

Things change, 2 weeks ago we were clearly (rated as) one of the worst teams. Not saying it’s completely flipped but teams rise and fall through the year. 

 

Yup, we could easily lose all 4.

6 minutes ago, spirit of norm smith said:

Any news in when rounds 9-12 are being announced.  Hopefully soon. Get on board Dees for finals. ?

AFL must have the actuarial service working overtime on the draw to work on algorithms and scenarios.  

They're flat out! 

Either that or this is the FoxFooty newsroom...Jon Ralph, Tom Morris etc.