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deelusions from afar

What happens to the draft in 2020

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This is not a thread about season 2020 being over therefore looking at who we might get in the next draft but more regarding what do people think is likely to happen.

This year is going to be more compromised than ever before.  We are told that the upcoming draft is one of the strongest ever (I know they regularly say that) - especially with many father-son and academy picks.

- there is a chance that the draft hopefuls will not be playing this year and if they do play they will play far less than previous years - so much of the intelligence on the draft hopefuls will be based on how they were going last year.  And we all know of players that dominated  as a 17 year old but fall away in their draft year.

- there's talk of the lists likely to be smaller as a result of covid 19 - which means there will be a surplus of free agents floating around

- Melbourne has traded its first pick to North Melbourne - either thinking that we were going to perform far better this year and/or figured that the draft pick is less value this year due to all the father/sons and academy picks.

 

How will this play out at the end of the season?

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As far as the first round in the 2020 draft goes, I'm taking the approach that we have already made that selection when we picked up Pickett in last years draft.  I'm happy with what Kosi has shown thus far to think that he has the makings of a good player and a worthy first round selection. 

 

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1 hour ago, deelusions from afar said:

We are told that the upcoming draft is one of the strongest ever

I thought it was meant to be a weak draft because so many of the better prospects are either father-sons or Academy selections.

This was apparently the logic behind trading our first pick to North for the chance to draft Pickett.

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Yes agree. Effectively Kosi Pickett is our 2020 1st rounder. Our trade “got him a year early” so happy with the shift. 
 

There are so many academy, multicultural zone and father-son kids this year that are good so it’s definitely compromised.  Our 1st pick could be in the late 20s again.  We might only have 2-3 picks this year and we should aim for a young key forward.  

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I think it's strong in terms of talent but heavily diluted due to the academy and FS picks.

It's probably not a bad year to go for a few speculative picks as it will be even more of a lottery than other years.

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i heard something recently where they said this draft isn't particularly good and is completely diluted due to all the academy and nga selections

they also said that next year and the year after are REALLY low in quality - the u/16s national championships last year was apparently bereft of quality

it's funny; it used to be that every year the experts would talk the drafts up about the quality coming through...but that hasn't happened for the last couple of years

i'm fine with trading out of this year's draft to secure pickett fwiw

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I hate the idea of drafting future picks and I'm still not convinced that giving up our 2020 draft pick was a smart move. I'm not saying that we have to use a high draft pick each year, but you have so much more flexibility to orchestrate trades when you have a full complement of picks available.

Yes, it is a highly compromised draft, but there are still quality players likely to be available at the top end and there is a reasonable chance that our (North's) first selection is going to be quite early indeed. 

I'm not sold on Jackson and, if we were so desperate to get Pickett, I would have preferred us to split pick 3 into two later first round picks. That would have given us Pickett plus one more last year, and let us keep our pick for this year.

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Given we have used 2 first rounders last year meeting the necessary quota for however long (4/5 years?), i'm more than happy to trade out next years first rounder too to try and bring in a half decent KPF.

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6 hours ago, spirit of norm smith said:

Yes agree. Effectively Kosi Pickett is our 2020 1st rounder. Our trade “got him a year early” so happy with the shift. 
 

There are so many academy, multicultural zone and father-son kids this year that are good so it’s definitely compromised.  Our 1st pick could be in the late 20s again.  We might only have 2-3 picks this year and we should aim for a young key forward.  

How strong is the quality and depth of this years kids,  'sons';   going on the past 2 seasons of their development.?

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My draft priorities would be a Quick running midfielder with elite disposal skills.

And an athletic 193-4cm highly skilled mobile running back.   A Qtr back style.

 

Between TMc,  Weide,  Brown, Petty,  & Jackson,  I think we are OK,  as far as young forward draftees are concerned.

However if trading in a known forward,  that is a different proposition...  eg:  Wright or Fogarty.?

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Kind of off topic... Has it been officially confirmed that AFL lists will be reduced?? If so given we have so many players come out of contract we may be one of the only teams with cap room to offer J Cameron a deal he cannot refuse 

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4 hours ago, MyFavouriteMartian said:

How strong is the quality and depth of this years kids,  'sons';   going on the past 2 seasons of their development.?

There is probably 15 kids out of the top 30 who are aligned already. I think two kids the Dees could look at are Ollie Lord, a key forward from Sandringham Dragons who trained with the Dees over the summer.  Likely to be around in the late 20s range.  Josh Clarke did well in the Futures game last year at the G as a fast wingman with skilled delivery of the footy. Needs a good year in the gym and on the pasta diet to bulk up. But should be in the 30-40 range. 
 

Unfortunately Will Phillips will go top 10 so the Dees would miss him. He is the type of elite skilled midfielder who would be a handy addition. 

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Posted (edited)

The state of play is reasonably summed up here:

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2020-afl-draft-2020-afl-draft-top-prospects-draft-order-geelong-north-melbourne/news-story/be1c9373cdef2c24790960f0af72fbbf

As SONS points out, one of the best mids in the crop, Will Phillips, is unlikely to last long enough.  Top of the tree is Ugle-Hagan, who is already attached to the Dogs as NGA. Best case scenario, Dogs finish low without finishing bottom. Grainger-Barras will rival JUH for top spot, a seriously high quality key defender. 

With the number of academy selections, the opportunity may be there to bundle up picks if we want to move up the order.

Edited by ChaserJ

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21 minutes ago, spirit of norm smith said:

There is probably 15 kids out of the top 30 who are aligned already. I think two kids the Dees could look at are Ollie Lord, a key forward from Sandringham Dragons who trained with the Dees over the summer.  Likely to be around in the late 20s range.  Josh Clarke did well in the Futures game last year at the G as a fast wingman with skilled delivery of the footy. Needs a good year in the gym and on the pasta diet to bulk up. But should be in the 30-40 range. 
 

Unfortunately Will Phillips will go top 10 so the Dees would miss him. He is the type of elite skilled midfielder who would be a handy addition. 

Will Phillips also trained with the dees at the start of the year. Going to be a gun that kid.

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9 hours ago, GCDee said:

Kind of off topic... Has it been officially confirmed that AFL lists will be reduced?? 

I think this is the key point.

It's also been suggested that given the lack of junior development league competitions this year to evaluate players, it would be a good oppertunity to raise the draft age, along the lines of what Roos has been saying for years.

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Recruiting is going to be even more of a guessing game this year and scouts will need a lot of luck on their side to really nail their picks.

It is extremely rare for the top underage players list to hold steady through the U18 season.  Players drop off or shoot up in the rankings very quickly in their final underage year, and even then there's still a lot of luck/guesswork involved.

There will be plenty of players who would have ordinarily gone in the first round available in the 20s+.

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13 hours ago, spirit of norm smith said:

There is probably 15 kids out of the top 30 who are aligned already. I think two kids the Dees could look at are Ollie Lord, a key forward from Sandringham Dragons who trained with the Dees over the summer.  Likely to be around in the late 20s range.  Josh Clarke did well in the Futures game last year at the G as a fast wingman with skilled delivery of the footy. Needs a good year in the gym and on the pasta diet to bulk up. But should be in the 30-40 range. 
 

Unfortunately Will Phillips will go top 10 so the Dees would miss him. He is the type of elite skilled midfielder who would be a handy addition. 

What do we have to elevate our pick into Rnd 1.?

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1 hour ago, MyFavouriteMartian said:

What do we have to elevate our pick into Rnd 1.?

Have to trade a top 15 player
or package Round 2 and a player.  

I’d sit it out right now. Difficult year to gauge talent plus we have nucleus of team. I didn’t think we’d be active but players may seek trade or return home or better contract $$ elsewhere. You never know 

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9 minutes ago, spirit of norm smith said:

Have to trade a top 15 player
or package Round 2 and a player.  

I’d sit it out right now. Difficult year to gauge talent plus we have nucleus of team. I didn’t think we’d be active but players may seek trade or return home or better contract $$ elsewhere. You never know 

In a compromised hit and miss draft like this, what would an improving ANB get do you think, from a SA club.?  Now we have Langdon and Tomlinson,  and Bedford coming thru,  we have more gut runners on our list.

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Yes agree that ANB is most likely trade option. May seek better $ and contract and game opportunities elsewhere (Crows??). They’d offer a pick 35-40 likely. 

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31 minutes ago, spirit of norm smith said:

Yes agree that ANB is most likely trade option. May seek better $ and contract and game opportunities elsewhere (Crows??). They’d offer a pick 35-40 likely. 

I would be surpised if he got us a pick 35-40. Maybe its just me as I dont rate him highly for ability.  I think petty will be targeted by Crows if we do not sign him.

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I know some people won't like it but pragmatically I think we should trade one of Viney or Brayshaw at the end of the year if this helps us get a decent key forward (better than what we already have) and/or a skilled pacy midfielder.  In terms of maximising value we probably should have done this at the end of last year. 

We have a surplus of inside mids - there's no room for Jones in there (though admittedly he's not the player he once was) and Harmes has been forced to play HBF because Viney and Brayshaw can't play anywhere else.  Plus we have the likes of Jordan and Sparrow who have shown enough promise to warrant games.  Although recruited as a potential HBF it looks like Jordan will be another inside mid from what he did in the VFL last year.

Would be sad to see either Viney or Brayshaw go - but how do they realistically fit into the structure going forward.  At trade time, you have to give something to get something.

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Other clubs can survive with 6/7 mids. I’d hold onto both Brayshaw and Viney. There is no targets imo worth giving up club culture to get. 

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One young 18yo who might be a 25-35 range is Zac Dumesny.  Tall mid-utility with good skills. Andrew Mackie like. Played senior footy with South Adelaide in round 1 and looked comfortable.  One for JT to watch. 

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