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MFCSS and Drafting

buck_nekkid
buck_nekkid
in Melbourne Demons

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Can you see it already?  The problem with having a high draft pick?  Lets call it the Jack Watts effect, or the Jimmy Toumpas Syndrome, or the Voldemort quandry, or the Hogan homesick hiccup....

No matter who we select at #3 they will be compared to every player we could have selected after that point.  If someone turns out to be brilliant at #7, MFC will be seen as negligent for picking our guy.  Even if they only have one good game, the ‘we should have chosen Nic Nat over Watts’ etc will start up with fury.

#10 gets a bit more grace, and by #28, if we get any upside we will be happy.

My hope is that we will select some superstars, but it is a lottery.  

Just calling it early, and hope that the kids that we select get a chance to play to their potential and help deliver us a flag, no matter what number they were drafted at.

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    Our drafting has been largely woeful (with a few obvious exceptions) for more than a decade, so people are right to be concerned. The criticisms are generally not of the players, but of highly paid recruiting staff who make poor decisions on draft night.

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    Most people on here keep confusing drafting/recruiting with player development. I honestly don’t think it was our drafting that was the problem during the last decade, because most of the players we drafted were highly rated in their draft years, so they would have been drafted at a similar pick by other clubs if we didn’t take them (e.g. watts, trengove, Morton etc). It’s just that the MFC’s development of these players was horrible  (due to very poor senior management) to the point where every player went backwards before Roos came onboard. I refuse to believe that we missed that many picks, because that would surely be impossible. 

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    We’ve averaged 6.67 wins a year since 2007.

    I think every supporter is entitled to a little MFCSS in relation to Wednesday.

    Hawthorn and Collingwood built their flag on the back of one solitary draft.

    We spent 7 top 20 picks on Scully, Trengove, Tappscott, Gysberts, Blease, Watts and Strauss over a 2 year period.

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    I foresee only 2 possible scenarios:

    1 - Pass on Jackson and Pickett, watch them become the next Grundy and Betts, while the players we select make Cale Morton look elite. Demonland melts.

    2 - Draft Jackson and Pickett, watch them spud it up until they get traded/ de-listed. Then watch Green, Young and Kemp go on to win multiple brownlows, premierships, norm smiths and Nobel Prizes, all while regularly rushing into burning orphanages to save small children. Demonland melts.

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    I think we are all quietly aware that if we skip Pickett he'll be a Byron Pickett / Cyril Rioli mashup and if we take him he will be basically Chris Yarran only smaller.

    Similarly, if we somehow get Brodie Kemp it will be because all other clubs let him slide after looking at medical information that confirms he'll never play a full season. On the other hand if we have the chance but don't take him, he's basically Bontempelli and never plays less than 20 games in a season.

    Luke Jackson is currently in a state of probabalistic flux between being a modern update on Jim Styles or basically a dual-position Lucas Cook.

    Hayden Young? Pass and he's a more accountable, better-kicking Dyson Heppel.  Take? James Strauss II.

    Is Tom Green the next Patrick Cripps or the next Matthew Bate? Only GWS decision to bid-match will tell.

     

    Right. I feel a little better with that out of my system.

    (oops, as would 'Accepting Mediocrity' who posted the same theme just before me)

    Edited by Little Goffy

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    1 hour ago, Accepting Mediocrity said:

    I foresee only 2 possible scenarios:

    1 - Pass on Jackson and Pickett, watch them become the next Grundy and Betts, while the players we select make Cale Morton look elite. Demonland melts.

    2 - Draft Jackson and Pickett, watch them spud it up until they get traded/ de-listed. Then watch Green, Young and Kemp go on to win multiple brownlows, premierships, norm smiths and Nobel Prizes, all while regularly rushing into burning orphanages to save small children. Demonland melts.More

    Luke 'Jolly' Jackson understudy until he gets traded and wins 2 flags :laugh:

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    18 hours ago, poita said:

    Our drafting has been largely woeful (with a few obvious exceptions) for more than a decade, so people are right to be concerned. The criticisms are generally not of the players, but of highly paid recruiting staff who make poor decisions on draft night.

    I suggest you revise your opinion. The draft failures are largely a thing of the past. Since Taylor has been there we have drafted well. Amazing successes from low draft pick choices

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    3 minutes ago, Farmer said:

    I suggest you revise your opinion. The draft failures are largely a thing of the past. Since Taylor has been there we have drafted well. Amazing successes from low draft pick choices

    In 2019  - We’re 17th! ‘It’s woeful!’

    In 2018 - we’ve made a prelim! ‘The acquisition of Oliver was a master stroke, our recruiting has been ‘bang on’  And with the usual attrition of players not coming on as per all other clubs’ 

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    The challenge isn't even picking the right bloke.

    It's keeping both Jackson and Pickett happy, and keeping them in Melbourne. 

     

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    2 hours ago, praha said:

    The challenge isn't even picking the right bloke.

    It's keeping both Jackson and Pickett happy, and keeping them in Melbourne. 

     

    Most players stick around for a flag or two. If Jackson wants to go to Freo after he has won a couple of flags with us then  I'll take the 2 1st rounders and rights to all Fyfe's kids trade.

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    20 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

    We’ve averaged 6.67 wins a year since 2007.

    I think every supporter is entitled to a little MFCSS in relation to Wednesday.

    Hawthorn and Collingwood built their flag on the back of one solitary draft.

    We spent 7 top 20 picks on Scully, Trengove, Tappscott, Gysberts, Blease, Watts and Strauss over a 2 year period.

    Do you suggest Scully was a bad pick? Starred in Y1, from recollection about 20 disposals in the final quarter v Footscray. Then taken from us by the biggest bid ever from Suns, after year 2.  Was becoming a seriously good player with them when he smashed his leg quite horribly 

    and Trengove was a great first year player, and his career was ruined by his foot injury.

    But in any event, more recently, I believe the drafting of Oliver, Viney, Petracca, Salem, Gawn ,Tom McD,  Fritsch, Hannan, on top of recruitment of Vince, Lewis, Hibberd and  Melksham, lay the foundation for the next few successful years

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    3 hours ago, Engorged Onion said:

    In 2019  - We’re 17th! ‘It’s woeful!’

    In 2018 - we’ve made a prelim! ‘The acquisition of Oliver was a master stroke, our recruiting has been ‘bang on’  And with the usual attrition of players not coming on as per all other clubs’ 

    I'm not arguing about player development. For example, we destroyed Trengove and Grimes by making them captain far too early. I also think that in other hands early on the Jack Watts history would have been very different.

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    The way I see it we shouldn't even be talking about pick 3. 12 months ago we'd be happy to have gotten a first round pick of 15-18 because we made top 4 again right? The anomaly that was 2019 may just be that, an anomaly and not a true reflection of who MFC are as a squad.

    Hence pick 3 is not even really deserved, as its meant for a truly crap side that needs the talent. We don't need the talent that badly. So it should be seen as a complete bonus/free hit. So we should take a risk and not care if it comes off or not really, he aint gonna be our saviour nor do we deserve him to be.

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    14 minutes ago, Farmer said:

    I'm not arguing about player development. For example, we destroyed Trengove and Grimes by making them captain far too early. I also think that in other hands early on the Jack Watts history would have been very different.

    I was agreeing with you... :) xo - peoples view is often contingent of where 'we' sit on the ladder from a drafting perspective, and you my friend were teasing out the nuance of drafting vs development.

    Edited by Engorged Onion

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    2 hours ago, Farmer said:

    Do you suggest Scully was a bad pick? Starred in Y1, from recollection about 20 disposals in the final quarter v Footscray. Then taken from us by the biggest bid ever from Suns, after year 2.  Was becoming a seriously good player with them when he smashed his leg quite horribly 

    and Trengove was a great first year player, and his career was ruined by his foot injury.

     

    Not necessarily, but it seemed like anything we did in that period turned to dust. Whether it be bad luck or bad management.

    The selections of Gysberts, Blease and Strauss were absolutely disastrous. Very hard to stomach considering Shuey was taken after Strauss.

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