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The Oracle

Beware of Pick 6!!!

By The Oracle, in Trade/Draft: What to do with Pick 3

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The Oracle    67

The Oracle
Posted

There’s a lot of talk round here that Melbourne should split its pick 3 with the GWS Giants and take pick 6 and something else but I’m suspicious of this because in car dealing language, the pick is a lemon 🍋!

Check out the chart from the AFL Draft Guru site

Historically, players who have been selected at 3 have played an average of 132 games compared with 57 for pick 6. At pick 7, the average is almost more than double at 133 games. 

Pick 6 is jinxed - we tell GWS no to that pick. 

https://www.draftguru.com.au/

6E343E09-7CA6-45A2-B461-680909177FF7.jpeg

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Deeman    876

Deeman
Posted
3 minutes ago, The Oracle said:

There’s a lot of talk round here that Melbourne should split its pick 3 with the GWS Giants and take pick 6 and something else but I’m suspicious of this because in car dealing language, the pick is a lemon 🍋!

Check out the chart from the AFL Draft Guru site

Historically, players who have been selected at 3 have played an average of 132 games compared with 57 for pick 6. At pick 7, the average is almost more than double at 133 games. 

Pick 6 is jinxed - we tell GWS no to that pick. 

https://www.draftguru.com.au/

6E343E09-7CA6-45A2-B461-680909177FF7.jpeg

Now that changes everything.

Thanks for this invaluable information.

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ben russell    387

ben russell
Posted

Pick 6 will become pick 7 when GWS swoop on Green though.

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DeeSpencer    10,992

DeeSpencer
Posted
9 minutes ago, ben russell said:

Pick 6 will become pick 7 when GWS swoop on Green though.

This. And pick 7 is a great pick!

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BAMF    1,856

BAMF
Posted

 I noticed that Pick 4 has been a bit of a dud.

The average is most likely influenced by us picking Morton and Toumpas at pick 4 and completely [censored] the average up.

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Sorry kids    634

Sorry kids
Posted

Pretty low averages for all the top tens.

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A F    10,337

A F
Posted
18 minutes ago, BAMF said:

 I noticed that Pick 4 has been a bit of a dud.

The average is most likely influenced by us picking Morton and Toumpas at pick 4 and completely [censored] the average up.

Clarry will be alright.

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DubDee    4,256

DubDee
Posted

So you’re saying pick 6 is due to be a superstar?!?

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Little Goffy    4,965

Little Goffy
Posted

 

It has been a long hard road for pick 6 which, after being truly awful through the nineties, has improved over time and even had a couple of good seasons more recently. But clearly we're talking about one of those picks that only ever shows glimpses of their talent and is forever 'one good preseason away' from being a real performer.

1998 Murray Vance

1999 Damian Cupido

2000 Dylan Smith

2001 Ashley Sampi

2002 Steven Salopek

2003 Kepler Bradley

2004 Tom Williams

2005  Beau Dowler

2006 Mitch Thorp

2007 David Myers 

2008 Chris Yarran

2009 Gary Roahn

2010 Reece Conca

2011 Chad Wingard

2012 Jackson Macrae

2013 Matthew Sharenberg

2014 Caleb Marchbank

2015  Aaron Francis

2016 Sam Petrevski-Seton

2017 Jaidyn Stephenson

2018 Ben King

 

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Pink Freud    217

Pink Freud
Posted
On 10/19/2019 at 6:21 PM, Little Goffy said:

 

It has been a long hard road for pick 6 which, after being truly awful through the nineties, has improved over time and even had a couple of good seasons more recently. But clearly we're talking about one of those picks that only ever shows glimpses of their talent and is forever 'one good preseason away' from being a real performer.

1998 Murray Vance

1999 Damian Cupido

2000 Dylan Smith

2001 Ashley Sampi

2002 Steven Salopek

2003 Kepler Bradley

2004 Tom Williams

2005  Beau Dowler

2006 Mitch Thorp

2007 David Myers 

2008 Chris Yarran

2009 Gary Roahn

2010 Reece Conca

2011 Chad Wingard

2012 Jackson Macrae

2013 Matthew Sharenberg

2014 Caleb Marchbank

2015  Aaron Francis

2016 Sam Petrevski-Seton

2017 Jaidyn Stephenson

2018 Ben King

 

Seems to be making a comeback of late.

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