Speed algorhythm - Uncontested Possession

[Stretch Johnson 2,602]

You could have the fastest group ever assembled in AFL history and if they aren't match conditioned and underdone they will get smashed on the transition by a better conditioned unit.  Like we were.  Its about repeat efforts.

Lack of speed isn't the primary issue here.

As others have spoken to, a lack of conditioning leads to a whole raft of problems.

[640MD 3,043]

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Posted 1 hour ago

  On 3/25/2019 at 12:24 AM, whatwhatsaywhat said:

spargo knows how to use the footy when he finds it, and actually has some pace - he just doesn't lay a tackle as he's a 19 year old, still developing strength

i personally don't think you can play frost and hunt in the same side; yes, they both have line-breaking speed, but neither can hit a target by foot

couldn't disagree with you more re lewis - the loss of him on the eve of round 1 was a massive blow as he controls our backline and is a must to have someone with a semblance of understanding of where to position themselves defensively, cos hibberd as our other backline leader can't / doesn't do it, and jetta leads by example rather than instruction, and to compare him to watts is laughable

brayshaw's skills are terrible, but he's brilliant at finding the footy - he's nowhere near mitchell's class at this stage

it's one game in, there's nothing to panic about, but there are obvious concerns at this stage

we got SMASHED for contested ball against meth coke, in the jlt match-ups, and against the pear

if you don't win the ball, you always look slow

 

  On 3/25/2019 at 7:51 AM, JV7 said:

I’m sure people will tell me to shut up because I keep banging on about the same thing every time our lack of leg speed is bought up but as long as people keep bringing it up I will put my 2 cents in.

I believe speed in AFL is completely overrated, the fastest way you can play football is by quick ball movement. Clean disposal by foot & quick chains of handballs. Our lack of speed is bought up every single time we have a bad loss or loss for that matter, we have been beaten in those games because we have not been aloud to play our style of football. Look at the total possession count from the weekend, we couldn’t get the footy off Port. I’d have a guess if you look at most of our “bad” losses over the past 2 years it would be we have been well beaten in the possession count, we just couldn’t get the ball of Port & control the game in any way.

Another point on the speed factor, take frost or hunt for example. They take off a million miles an hour, burst away, kick long  & turn it over, that footy is sling shot back inside our defence 50 by FOOT, not legs, I repeat GOOD foot skills not speed before Frost or Hunt could even turn around to defend. 

Agree we are not the fastest side in the comp, but we are playing football not racing a 100m sprint. Good ball use particularly by foot is what makes sides fast. 

 

  On 3/25/2019 at 8:10 AM, stevethemanjordan said:

@JV7

Nail on head. 

We shoot ourselves in the foot by aimlessly kicking forward too often only to find ourselves wasting energy on chasing tail back the other way. 

It is completely a ball movement, clean possession and disposal thing. Nothing else. 

We turned it around last season when we started hitting targets moving forward instead of Bombing aimlessly 

 

Yes I agree with both of these points      hate to see it bombed long or to a contest where we don't have the numbers  resulting in an easy mark to a defender or an easy out for the opposition, pissses me off   Such a waste of effort not to give it to one of ours.    But its easy to talk from my side of the TV.

 

Go Dees

[DV8 2,271]

5 hours ago, Stretch Johnson said:

a lack of conditioning leads to a whole raft of problems.

or simply a mismatch of conditioning.

[TGR 1,367]

6/6/6 has hurt no other club like us.  Ironic that satin's number will hurt the Demons the most. You now need speed, line-breaking ability and a thirst for one-on-one footy.

We were an inside team that lacked speed on the outside and line-breaking ability to begin with.  Then we recruited Lewis, who played +1, who lead our zone defence.  According to Bartel, Brisbane's defence has been ingrained with one-on-one learning since he stepped foot in the place.

Geelong got taught a lesson by us in September 2018.  But they transformed, and injected speed into their line-up.  We didn't even review the PF, because that wasn't us.  Maybe in retropect, it was us in the most important game of the year.  Clarkson has got rid of slow old legs in the past 3 years, and brought in running power amongst other things.  We were a bit hamstrung.  We sold the farm with Lever, and missed out on injecting the list with speed/talent in the superdraft.

We can't re-write history, and don't deserve to, but there are some things that can and must be done pronto.

Goodwin must put TMac (who I rate as a forward) back to provide some assurance down back.  He will take marks in D50 and hopefully work well with his brother.  Frost and Hibberd particularly, must be freed toward the wings.  Jones must re-invent himself down back or retire this year.  Lewis should retire in the upcoming Hawks game and get chaired off as a courageous skillful player 3 years past his prime.

Goodwin must think about Preust, especially if Weed's defensive efforts remain average.

Goodwin must persist with Lockhart and Hunt.

 

Think I might start looking at June snow-deals and September holidays.  Will the small SCG favour our penchant for inside footy?  Maybe, but Essendon and Port showed the footy world to be daring with ball-in-hand and take us on with speed..and dare us to chase and tackle.

 

 

 

pTGR

 

 

[TGR 1,367]

Smashed again in relation to uncontested possession in a decent win.

This is not structural surely....gotta be personnel.  Renovation rather than rebuild inevitable IMO.

 

 

 

[Watson11 1,963]

3 hours ago, TGR said:

Smashed again in relation to uncontested possession in a decent win.

This is not structural surely....gotta be personnel.  Renovation rather than rebuild inevitable IMO.

 

 

 

Sorry but don’t agree and think it’s structural. If we apply intense pressure in the forward 50 then we force turnovers and the opposition uncontested numbers are down.  Second half was good.  First half was like first 3 games. Forward 6 need more time to gel defensively.

[TGR 1,367]

Just heard Bevo describe Freo as having 'speed and grunt'.

Nail on head.

Our speed (Hunt, Spargo, Garlett) has no grunt.

Our grunt (Petracca) has no speed.  We pass on grunt, but fail with speed.

 

Richmond, I'd say is full of speed and grunt.

 

Algorithm imbalance.

[Tony Tea 2,792]

Grunt matters in big games.

When it comes to the big games it's player on player. If both players are equally skilled and equally quick and equally fit, as is mostly the case in finals, the stronger player will win because whenever the two players come together at the contest the stronger player will buffet the weaker out of the way and win position and possession.

Take StKilda.

The Saints are currently running hard and long. But they don't have a raft of grunt players. If we were well conditioned, rather than our current fitness shambles, and we were equally as fit as the Saints, I would back us to win. We have the grunt, but we are just all over the shop with our fitness and conditioning.

Currently I'd back, say, Geelong and Collingwood in any big game against the Saints.

[Demon Dynasty 16,154]

33 minutes ago, Tony Tea said:

Grunt matters in big games.

When it comes to the big games it's player on player. If both players are equally skilled and equally quick and equally fit, as is mostly the case in finals, the stronger player will win because whenever the two players come together at the contest the stronger player will buffet the weaker out of the way and win position and possession.

Take StKilda.

The Saints are currently running hard and long. But they don't have a raft of grunt players. If we were well conditioned, rather than our current fitness shambles, and we were equally as fit as the Saints, I would back us to win. We have the grunt, but we are just all over the shop with our fitness and conditioning.

Currently I'd back, say, Geelong and Collingwood in any big game against the Saints.

Again....this all points to falling behind the eight ball vs other clubs, even stock ordinary ones like the Saints.

Pert needs to instigate a full review of the FD at all levels including a possible assistant to help out Goody, sports science / high performance standards, the present state of the list  and our trade/draft performance ASAP!!

Bottom of the ladder from a Prelim appearance 6 months earlier is unacceptable and inexcusable and smells of amaturish/eyes off the ball standards creeping in post the Roos era.

Edited April 26, 2019 by Rusty Nails

[TGR 1,367]

1 hour ago, Tony Tea said:

Grunt matters in big games.

When it comes to the big games it's player on player. If both players are equally skilled and equally quick and equally fit, as is mostly the case in finals, the stronger player will win because whenever the two players come together at the contest the stronger player will buffet the weaker out of the way and win position and possession.

Take StKilda.

The Saints are currently running hard and long. But they don't have a raft of grunt players. If we were well conditioned, rather than our current fitness shambles, and we were equally as fit as the Saints, I would back us to win. We have the grunt, but we are just all over the shop with our fitness and conditioning.

Currently I'd back, say, Geelong and Collingwood in any big game against the Saints.

Billy Slater takes tackling drills for 1-2 hours with the saints.  He is pedantic with his instruction apparently.

Kent also stated, according to a colleague, that the outside drills the Saints do are chalk and cheese to what he was used to here.

[TGR 1,367]

On 3/24/2019 at 5:17 PM, TGR said:

Much debate in the past 24 hours is about whether we really lack outside speed.  

We can all look at this a bit simply and directly correlate this with uncontested possession numbers.  But what are the other related variables and factors?  We lack speed, but does that mean we wouldn't be assisted by a Sam Mitchell (circa 2012), Tim Kelly or Dustin Martin?  These players aren't quick, but would they help our uncontested possession crisis?  I think they would, so it can't be all about leg speed.

 

Despite the recency of the 6/6/6, the league has been clear on its want to reduce congestion.  Congestion was our friend, and favoured teams that were hard inside with quick hands in congestion.  Some of our inside work last year reminded me of Sydney in 2005/6 as well as the Bulldogs in 2016.  Collingwood's quick hands in 2018 was elite too.

 

So as the game decongests (quicker ball-ups, decisions over ball-up, 6/6/6, kick-out play-on etc...), uncontested possession is about to be gold.  This ugly duckling of 2005-2018 (bar Clarkson/Hawthorn) is about to become the go-to stat of most games hereon.

Leg-speed counts quite a bit toward uncontested possession; but what else.  Surely there are teams without elite leg-speed that are OK with uncontested possession.  So what are the additional factors?  What makes the sum of the parts more whole?

Foot skills have got to be a factor.  Clarkson's Hawthorn had foot skills of the highest percentile.  They were able to start a chain from D50, and not rely on clearance-dominance and contested possession.  As stated, they were the exception when contested was king.

Uncontested possession requires a chain to start and continue obviously.  So what else, other than leg-speed and foot skills will enable a chain to start and continue.

The ability to break a tackle must be relevant.  As soon as this happens, a +1 instantly occurs, and overlap can happen.  Dustin Martin in 17/18 has been the best, and regularly gave Richmond a +1 and overlap chain.  Despite being dragged down yesterday, I have faith in Petracca being elite at breaking a tackle.  I think Brayshaw's ability to evade a tackler is grossly underrated as well.  Oliver's quick hands are elite in evading a tackle, but this delegates responsibility to the player who has just received the pill in close, and doesn't necessarily augment a chain starting and spreading to the outside.

The other 'non-speed' component is lateral speed or change-of-direction speed.  Sam Mitchell was like treacle in a straight-line, but somehow could zig-and-zag quicker than most.  Tim Kelly has a bit of Sam Mitchell and Brayshaw about him.  Not electric, but slices through.

Fox Footy (Lyon with Roos agreeing) also mentioned the A2 and A3 having faith in the A1 to get the ball.  In other words, does the A1 (person about to get the pill) really need support in close.  Yesterday's example was Petracca (identifying this near the city end) peeling off offensively and dangerously, and having faith that his teammate would win the possession.

Other factors involve defensive spread (which primarily require leg-speed), workrate and restricting dangerous space.

 

Alternatives?

If you don't do well with uncontested possession, then you have an unhealthy reliance on winning clearances and gaining territory into F50.  You also have an unhealthy reliance on your forwards keeping the pill in our forward 50.  Mooney on Fox Footy yesterday overheard (3/4 time break) that Port didn't rate our forwards applying pressure, and coaching staff advised Port's backs to take stock coming out of their backline.

 

Have we built a list that incorporates all these variables?  I think it is important to start judging players on the whole, rather than the simple (good v bad, slow v fast).

 

 

 

Spargo is quick, but not lightening.  He rarely breaks a tackle.  I don't think his change of direction speed is great either.  Spargo needs bulk (to break a tackle) amongst other things to earn a spot.

Lewis should retire now.  Other than his foot skills, I can only see him being a liability in the decongested era.  I have said repeatedly over the past few years, Watts could have done Lewis's onfield role with much more upside.

Frost is the new whipping boy.  But the simpletons are mad thinking he is our greatest problem.  He is super-quick.  His change of direction was hampered by wearing ice-skates yesterday.  When he gets it, he attracts 2-3 opposition, which in theory should create the overlap opportunity.  I would like to see him bulk up a bit and break a few more tackles.

Hunt - must play.  Speed, change-of-direction and overlap.  With 6/6/6 dump kicks into F50 will now go to 1-on-1s or 2-on-2s more often.

Brayshaw - tackle evasion/breaking is understated; foot skills are better than what he has been given credit for; his non-dominant side foot skills are on the way (not there yet) to what Mitchell's was like.

 

Melbourne under Goodwin and Roos have built a list of competitors that are suited to congestion.  On paper, it is a 'pretty good list', but when it is judged on these variables, it comes up short.

 

 

pTGR

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tim Kelly on track for a Brownlow.

We are on track for oblivion.

Collingwood on track for the flag.

 

 

Easy to pick after round 1.