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TGR

Speed algorhythm - Uncontested Possession

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3 hours ago, TGR said:

Read the thread opener.  I said that Tim Kelly, Sam Mitchell and Dusty would help our uncontested possession.  It’s not all about leg speed, but it’s not all about kicking it forward and hitting targets either.  First, this does not help you get the ball back.  Second, if you hit safe targets in non-dangerous positions you can slow yourself up and allow teams to get numbers back.  Third, I saw ‘good’ kicks to Spargo heading toward the city end.  They hit their target, but with a defender on his heels, and the fact that Spargo is c-grade overhead, you are dancing with the devil.

 

6/6/6 and other rules have been the biggest changer to the game perhaps in its history.  No surprise that most of the prelim finalists, who had 1 month less prep to think about and train for the quantum leap actually lost.  Conversely, the sides that injected youth and speed (Geelong and Port) had their best wins of the modern era.

 

Beware the Hawks 2019_   with 6.6.6.

Tiges

Blues should improve

Doggies gamestyle

Bummers

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1 minute ago, DV8 said:

Beware the Hawks 2019_   with 6.6.6.

 

Beware Clarkson full stop.  He knew when to move on players that were about to reach their used-by date.

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18 minutes ago, hemingway said:

When the ball was kicked into our forward line or defence we rarely had players in front or behind the pack. Time and again Port swept the ball away when we had our guys flying for the aerial contest but noone at ground level. Very frustrating to see this occur repeatedly.

I think we might see another small come in this week.   We're a bit too lumbering in our midsized forwards, for the 6.6.6.

Especially when we are a tad under prepared, entering the season.

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34 minutes ago, TGR said:

Beware Clarkson full stop.  He knew when to move on players that were about to reach their used-by date.

Are you suggesting that Jordan Lewis coming on board has been a failure?

I'd say at worst - he's been competent and provided real leadership - with moments of ineptitude... 

The final year of the contract was probably on his terms to get it over the line - and as a supporter I'd say that 'wearing' the cost of that has been worth it.

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1 hour ago, TGR said:

Beware Clarkson full stop.  He knew when to move on players that were about to reach their used-by date.

Lewis has  been a bonus for us,  leading us toward winnings,  and toward finals.

Lewis's maturity and knowledge, particularly coming from our nemesis club,  is a gift for us,  from Clarko.   Yes his time is approaching,  but we are on our way to being a competent Club, once again.

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5 hours ago, TGR said:

Hawthorn under Clarkson.  Only Cyril and Hill and maybe Smith had genuine leg speed.

Geelong under Thompson?

 

I see where you are going saying one swallow does not make a spring.  I rarely judge on the basis of one performance.  Geelong beat Collingwood on Friday night...and the Pies will be premiers to make the point.

Kicking efficiency stats require caution.

 

If I have the ball in time and space (work rate, and relative leg speed required) AND the receiver has busted his [censored] to be out on his own, then I could bloody kick it to him with good efficiency.  OK I am Hibberd coming out of deep defence under pressure, I look up....Viney is incapable of sprinting free...so is Jones...Gawn ain’t quick and took no contested marks....the wind is bloody gusty...  Of course my kicking efficiency is going to be average.

 

This thread is about thinking more than one dimensionally about a problem.  If you think kicking efficiency is all about a ball drop and foot contact, then your thinking half dimensionally.

 

 

 

 

I don't think anyone is saying Kicking Efficiency (accuracy) alone is the sole factor re speed on the outside TGR.  As we all know there are multiple factors involved in how quickly and efficiently a team moves the ball.

But there's no denying accuracy by foot does play a significant role in maintaining possession, control/speed/momentum of the game and finishing (both generally and in front of the sticks) which impacts on the outcome.

Regarding the Kicking Efficiency Criticism...

In isolation and based on one game i cant agree more.  However, looking at averages over a meaningful base of matches (Say 10 matches plus) the stats don't lie.  You are either horrible, ok or fabulous at hitting targets vs your peers who play a similar role under all sorts of pressure and weather conditions.

Comparing like with like is critical (as mentioned in previous post) with defenders often getting cheapies around the back, mid fielders under more intense pressure etc.

Utilising stats on their own is always a bad formula for assessing any performance but in this instance we are talking speed of ball movement and i would think accuracy in hitting targets by foot (in order to maintain possession during that movement and obviously the ball moves faster in the air than any player can run with it) would be a fairly critical element, provided it's looked at over a meaningful number of matches and done so comparing like with like position wise.

Edited by Rusty Nails

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19 hours ago, Engorged Onion said:

Are you suggesting that Jordan Lewis coming on board has been a failure?

 

Common knowledge that my opinion has always been, from an on-field point-of-view, an absolute disaster of a decision.  Made a team that wasn't quick in the first place.....undoubtedly slower.

Our most important match in his time here was the WC PF.  No leadership and a liability on the field when it the game was fast and hot.

Leadership????  Tell me the leadership the bulldogs relied on in 2016? Bevo didn't get sucked in to draft in a superannuant and dress it up as "leadership needed".  It is overrated, self-fulfilling, and can actually stifle growth of others that should be leaders now.  

An inward-looking decision from a desperate club ('he wants to come here') that was unsure of itself.  Our need of leadership has been a self-fulfilling prophecy.  It has made the potential leaders, sit back and let him lead.

 

With every trade there is consequences.  Lewis made a slow team, slower.  Selling the farm for Lever, essentially removed us from the super-draft just gone, where kids have made an impact round 1.

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On The Couch last night, Roos conceded we weren't a quick team.  He also suggested we weren't slow either...which might be a bit of legacy-protection.

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On 3/25/2019 at 6:18 AM, Watson11 said:

Disposal is super important but we get sucked into the contest too easily.  That’s why we chase tail.  When a 50-50 ball doesn’t go our way, we have 4 or 5 players within a few metres of it, and well coached teams have players free on the outside.  If we have a good day with contested posssesion and ball movement, you don’t see it and our biggest defect is masked over.  I’d like to see us improve kicking efficiency and set up better for when we don’t win 50-50 ball.  Same happens at stoppages.  

Interesting stat, if we had scored the same as Port from stoppages on Saturday we would have won. 

 

My big gripe in AFL and I seen Melbourne get caught up in it on Saturday, is why do 5 guys chase 1 with the ball. By doing this 3-4 opponents become free and essentially set up to receive the ball. 

We did it over and over against port and hence the uncontested count. All feel uncontested possession wins games.

port were not that quick, they just played to our see ball get ball mentality. 

I am sure they are [censored] at their effort and Gawn will gain from the experience. Let’s hope Preuss can get a wriggle on.

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In the first quarter we moved the ball with handball and short low kicking. We also spoiled and cut off port releases.

We then seemed to lose the flight, spoils didn't work and Port had an outside player and created an overlap as we had players crowded together. Port players were 3 metres from their opponents which was too far in advance of our player, they seemed to get the match ups and our players didn't know the speed of their match up.

We also kicked to contests where we were outnumbered, bombed the ball high in a swirling wind. When the ball fell we were outnumbered, rushed to the contest and crowded together leaving an opponent free outside, they then created an overlap, often by switching.

Jack Watts engineered such a move directing his teammates through the overlap, switch and run through the centre, late in the game. Our players conceded space an ran round chasing an opponent who knew what both they and their opponents were going to do.

Hinkley out coached Goodwin it seemed.

our Structures and tactics seemed lacking and our skills disappeared in the 2nd quarter.

i forgive Frost for his stupid run on and frustration as at least he was trying to create something, no one told him he was hot but no forward anticipated his run and provided a target.

We seemed to be a team of individuals after Quarter time. The fact that none supported Max was just one display of this. The huddles of backs and forwards after scoring occurred did not seem to result in any structure based on an awareness of what was going on. Perhaps Lewis could have remedied that maybe the lack of runners on field was responsible.

oh well it's only week 1. Let's see what happens at the Cattery. Oh and can someone make sure the right boots are worn for the surface. Our slipping over in the first Quarter was part of not being further ahead Both sides were falling but in 2nd Quarter Port seemed more sure footed. I didn't see them change but wonder again if we were out coached as Port reacted to that feature, we did not.

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On 3/25/2019 at 12:28 AM, DV8 said:

Frost could play R/R. 2nd Ruck, at a pinch,  if we had an injured Gawn.    His speed and size around the packs would at least be interesting.  Even if he just hand-balled the thing out of the pack.

Interesting and not too far-fetched; kind of agree. His pace is remarkable - he actually ran down two Port players last Saturday when the opportunity arose and created a teammate possession from nothing. He also ran directly (once) into trouble and could not change direction with the ball - a weakness, yes, but at least he had the ball and game-time will enable better disposal in this function; at least he got the ball by moving into space very quickly which is always a good deal better than what OMac (the experiment) is regularly failing to achieve. Frosty makes 'time' for the team downfield - disposal options and skills will come. 

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5 hours ago, Deemania since 56 said:

He also ran directly (once) into trouble and could not change direction with the ball - a weakness, yes, but at least he had the ball and game-time will enable better disposal in this function; at least he got the ball by moving into space very quickly which is always a good deal better than what OMac

And this is my whole premise Re Frost off the bench as 2nd Ruck.  He can create mayhem in the middle with size and speed and if he gets coralled simple bash a handball outside the pack for us to create another contest.

He can draw players to him and with his size would fdraw more than one player his way. a little like a big russel richards.

 

He can take a good mark about the ground, and matches up well with other opposition mids, Re his size x speed.   Let him crash into oppositon mids in packs and stoppages.

I also like the idea of Keilty forward, in unison with Weide.,..  good hands IMO, has Keilty.

Ether of Keilty or Frost ? 

I suspect frost will be more use on the wider wings of the 'G'.  and the wider grounds.

 

For the cattery I think disposal skills are a must this week.

So I would play Keilty or Preuss this week....  and IF Preusss,  then I would also add another small in, like a bedford/chandler ... someone with lightning reflexes and foot speed.

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7 hours ago, Deemania since 56 said:

Interesting and not too far-fetched; kind of agree. His pace is remarkable - he actually ran down two Port players last Saturday when the opportunity arose and created a teammate possession from nothing. He also ran directly (once) into trouble and could not change direction with the ball - a weakness, yes, but at least he had the ball and game-time will enable better disposal in this function; at least he got the ball by moving into space very quickly which is always a good deal better than what OMac (the experiment) is regularly failing to achieve. Frosty makes 'time' for the team downfield - disposal options and skills will come. 

We are walking against the herd.  90+% of supporters disagree with us, and it will be interesting to see how match committee views it.  The great thing about Frost is that he rarely plays safe, in a team that can be a little timid and safe.  FCS conservative predictable kick-ins when we were 4 goals down was too much to handle.  With Frost, he has speed and momentum.  Add a bit of bulk, secure footing, and a don't argue, and this guy will make life that much easier for his teammates.

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On 3/25/2019 at 2:34 PM, Rusty Nails said:

If I have the ball in time and space (work rate, and relative leg speed required) AND the receiver has busted his [censored] to be out on his own, then I could bloody kick it to him with good efficiency.

So correct and so essential to our success but it ain't happening - others say it is not part of the modern game. Good, it will be surprising if that is the case....and profitable on the scorecard.

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9 hours ago, TGR said:

Common knowledge that my opinion has always been, from an on-field point-of-view, an absolute disaster of a decision.  Made a team that wasn't quick in the first place.....undoubtedly slower.

Our most important match in his time here was the WC PF.  No leadership and a liability on the field when it the game was fast and hot.

Leadership????  Tell me the leadership the bulldogs relied on in 2016? Bevo didn't get sucked in to draft in a superannuant and dress it up as "leadership needed".  It is overrated, self-fulfilling, and can actually stifle growth of others that should be leaders now.  

An inward-looking decision from a desperate club ('he wants to come here') that was unsure of itself.  Our need of leadership has been a self-fulfilling prophecy.  It has made the potential leaders, sit back and let him lead.

 

With every trade there is consequences.  Lewis made a slow team, slower.  Selling the farm for Lever, essentially removed us from the super-draft just gone, where kids have made an impact round 1.

Here is one consequence that I would like to see as a result of recruiting Lewis:  He immediately becomes one of the FD coaches and not a player. Imagine the tactical knowledge and skills he could develop in our 'young brigade'.

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48 minutes ago, TGR said:

We are walking against the herd.  90+% of supporters disagree with us, and it will be interesting to see how match committee views it.  The great thing about Frost is that he rarely plays safe, in a team that can be a little timid and safe.  FCS conservative predictable kick-ins when we were 4 goals down was too much to handle.  With Frost, he has speed and momentum.  Add a bit of bulk, secure footing, and a don't argue, and this guy will make life that much easier for his teammates. 

Yep, they're his skills alright.   And we should learn to utilise them,  as did the team in the late 80's.   Frosty has imo, a good dose of anxiety on the field.   With lots of games under his belt,  he will get calmer,  and more considered thru that.

 

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10 hours ago, TGR said:

On The Couch last night, Roos conceded we weren't a quick team.  He also suggested we weren't slow either...which might be a bit of legacy-protection.

I’d say the exact same about Richmond.  One or two super quick players like us.  But otherwise not a quick team but not slow.  They just never, ever look slow because they structure up so well.

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10 hours ago, TGR said:

Common knowledge that my opinion has always been, from an on-field point-of-view, an absolute disaster of a decision.  Made a team that wasn't quick in the first place.....undoubtedly slower.

Our most important match in his time here was the WC PF.  No leadership and a liability on the field when it the game was fast and hot.

Leadership????  Tell me the leadership the bulldogs relied on in 2016? Bevo didn't get sucked in to draft in a superannuant and dress it up as "leadership needed".  It is overrated, self-fulfilling, and can actually stifle growth of others that should be leaders now.  

An inward-looking decision from a desperate club ('he wants to come here') that was unsure of itself.  Our need of leadership has been a self-fulfilling prophecy.  It has made the potential leaders, sit back and let him lead.

 

With every trade there is consequences.  Lewis made a slow team, slower.  Selling the farm for Lever, essentially removed us from the super-draft just gone, where kids have made an impact round 1.

Your opinion is interesting but certainly counter to my thoughts. I believe that if we had our time over again, we would certainly not hesitate to purchase Lewis - just like Brisbane would not hesitate to purchase Hodge and WC would not hesitate to purchase Mitchell again. Their on field experience and leadership has been and is priceless for inexperienced teams trying to mold a group of young players.

Stating that the likes of Lewis "actually stifle the growth of others that should be leaders now" is a statement that baffles me. What potential leaders at our club has he stifled? What potential leaders "have sat back and let him lead? I would suggest that until May can become the general down back, Lewis is essential to our backline. I cannot imagine our backline,  with the likes of  Omac and Frost running around, being able to function cohesively without that leadership.

Yes he had a shocker in the PF, but so did 21 other players, so he was not alone. Our two actual leaders also had shockers that day., so I don't get the relevance of your argument.

As for making the team slower, pace alone does not make a team quick. Its running to create space, and having the ball delivered to that space quickly that is the key. A kicked ball always travels faster than a man can run - even someone like Hunt. Lewis makes space and delivers the ball exceptionally well. Surely this is something we want. He rarely kicks to a pack - as a large number of our team seem to do.

As for the Lever trade, if he can get fit, I think he will prove to be an exceptional buy.

I trust the leadership we have under Goody, and the purchase decisions they have made - I guess time will tell.

 

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13 minutes ago, Watson11 said:

I’d say the exact same about Richmond.  One or two super quick players like us.  But otherwise not a quick team but not slow.  They just never, ever look slow because they structure up so well.

But Richmond, to my naked eye, slip tackles more with ball in hand, and lay more effective ones.  Even without the outlier Martin, they bust through.  No Spargos in Richmond’s forward line for instance.

So according to the algorithm in the OP, breaking tackles equals more + 1 chains...which helps uncontested possession.

 

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5 minutes ago, TGR said:

But Richmond, to my naked eye, slip tackles more with ball in hand, and lay more effective ones.  Even without the outlier Martin, they bust through.  No Spargos in Richmond’s forward line for instance.

So according to the algorithm in the OP, breaking tackles equals more + 1 chains...which helps uncontested possession.

 

The Tigers were 15th in uncontested possessions last year.  They excel in intercepts because the opposition ball carrier is always under pressure.  

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2 hours ago, Watson11 said:

The Tigers were 15th in uncontested possessions last year.  They excel in intercepts because the opposition ball carrier is always under pressure.  

Good point.

Is there a tackles broken stat?

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Love this thread,    no pithy replies or suggestions.   Some of you really watch and see more than I do.

Makes me feel better about last week.     Still think we will come up short on Saturday but....

 

So we were at least one man short   Viney,  with  Gawn just out of hospital,   and Oliver and Jones had down games.

and Hinkley and Port had worked on us for a few weeks to expose our faults.  and I know we did not run the game out.

 

Well can we pick fit fellas this week and play 22 on 22.   maybe it wont be a complete disaster. (as I felt last Sat night)

 

Again I really like reading this thread  and some others    Footys BACK !!

Go Dees

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16 hours ago, Stormy Dee said:

Algorithm not with a y

Cheers.  Tried to change it days ago, but couldn't.

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On 3/24/2019 at 9:24 PM, whatwhatsaywhat said:

spargo knows how to use the footy when he finds it, and actually has some pace - he just doesn't lay a tackle as he's a 19 year old, still developing strength

i personally don't think you can play frost and hunt in the same side; yes, they both have line-breaking speed, but neither can hit a target by foot

couldn't disagree with you more re lewis - the loss of him on the eve of round 1 was a massive blow as he controls our backline and is a must to have someone with a semblance of understanding of where to position themselves defensively, cos hibberd as our other backline leader can't / doesn't do it, and jetta leads by example rather than instruction, and to compare him to watts is laughable

brayshaw's skills are terrible, but he's brilliant at finding the footy - he's nowhere near mitchell's class at this stage

it's one game in, there's nothing to panic about, but there are obvious concerns at this stage

we got SMASHED for contested ball against meth coke, in the jlt match-ups, and against the pear

if you don't win the ball, you always look slow

 

On 3/25/2019 at 4:51 AM, JV7 said:

I’m sure people will tell me to shut up because I keep banging on about the same thing every time our lack of leg speed is bought up but as long as people keep bringing it up I will put my 2 cents in.

I believe speed in AFL is completely overrated, the fastest way you can play football is by quick ball movement. Clean disposal by foot & quick chains of handballs. Our lack of speed is bought up every single time we have a bad loss or loss for that matter, we have been beaten in those games because we have not been aloud to play our style of football. Look at the total possession count from the weekend, we couldn’t get the footy off Port. I’d have a guess if you look at most of our “bad” losses over the past 2 years it would be we have been well beaten in the possession count, we just couldn’t get the ball of Port & control the game in any way.

Another point on the speed factor, take frost or hunt for example. They take off a million miles an hour, burst away, kick long  & turn it over, that footy is sling shot back inside our defence 50 by FOOT, not legs, I repeat GOOD foot skills not speed before Frost or Hunt could even turn around to defend. 

Agree we are not the fastest side in the comp, but we are playing football not racing a 100m sprint. Good ball use particularly by foot is what makes sides fast. 

 

On 3/25/2019 at 5:10 AM, stevethemanjordan said:

@JV7

Nail on head. 

We shoot ourselves in the foot by aimlessly kicking forward too often only to find ourselves wasting energy on chasing tail back the other way. 

It is completely a ball movement, clean possession and disposal thing. Nothing else. 

Agree  agree & agree

Ball moves quicker than any player ive seen and it comes back even quicker when your players are committed and poor disposal turns it over.

We turned it around last season when we started hitting targets moving forward instead of Bombing aimlessly 

Whilst Levers out Lewis is still needed to marshal the backline and coach on field.

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    It was appropriate that Melbourne was playing its last game of season 2019 in Hobart.  After all, how much further south could the team go? And much as it has done in many of the previous 22 games, the side managed to extract a loss from a winning position by simply giving the ball back to the opposition time and time again. In fact, they gave it back to the opposition to the tune of 53 points from turnovers while, by way of contrast North Melbourne contributed  only 17 points to their oppo

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