Farewell Jesse Hogan

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

2 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

1. His tank is great, on a long lead that's fine but I don't see him get space on a short lead or sprint away from opponents when the ball hits the ground. Often he'll gather the ball and try to turn back away from goal rather than take them on.  I don't know exactly how Hoges would go in a 20m or 40m sprint but I think most gun key forwards would have him covered.

2. This one is the most glaring. I'm surprised you don't see it. He never connects with the midfielders when deep forward. I know our mids burn the ball but good forwards make it easy for them. Hogan is often just pleading for a long bombed kick.

3. Willing to agree to disagree but the way he kicks the ball so across his body means he only has a stab kick, no variation, he'll never be able to weight the ball over a defender

4. One on one body work he's great. But in terms of actually leaping at a pack mark I haven't seen it since year 1 or 2. I'm not sure if it's a lack of confidence in his knees or back or a lack of explosiveness but he's a wrestler not a leaper. McDonald and Weideman are both far better at really jumping for the ball. 

5. Josh Kennedy defends, J Riewoldt defends, when he's fit and healthy Buddy defends. It's not the be all and end all but it's a knock. Tommy McDonald's ankles don't work so he doesn't do a great job of it and Melksham likes to stand and watch. It's easy to get to a critical mass of forwards who don't launch in and lay tackles if Hogan is in that group as well.

Ben Brown is a more limited footballer than Hogan but he's exceptional and at leading, marking and being a big bugger. Jack Riewoldt is the best and most well rounded forward in the game, if the stats don't show that then chuck them out.

Fair point about Tom Mitchell but he is the games best ball winner, that's his remarkable skill to go with doing enough in other areas. I don't know if Hogan's best traits are truly exceptional.

1. I see what you mean, but I'm seeing him get space on those 5-10 metre quick twitch leads often... My problem is less his pace, more when he times those leads. Often he's finding a very small hole and the space closes before the play can show itself as a good option for the passer. You know the lead I'm talking about.. the one where he takes 5 steps at 100%, someone drops into the hole, and he sooks... Not only that but we just don't have good inside fifty kicks (besides Melks), which really impacts his confidence in a lead. Plus, in years gone by, his strength has been... well... strength. He LOVES the physical stuff. Always has. In his first few years part of the joy of watching him was out in front of players on a lead from the square. What's changed since then? I refuse to believe he's gotten slower (he's 24)... I think it's oppo teams identifying that he's too good to leave with a paddock in front of him. Which is why so many of his goals were over the back this year.

2. Sort of explained this one above. I really think it's oppo coaches seeing the tape on him from years 1-3... You don't have to be a genius to see that demons are strong in the air. Max, TMac and Hogan... we're gonna have mid-tall defenders dropping into the hole for the next 5 years, it's a certainty. And nah, I dunno about the "forwards make it easier." I really do think we lack in footskills when going inside fifty and that that's a huge part of why he's not as effective. The proof of that is when Salem and Melksham get busy. Suddenly Jesse looks like he's a genius when those guys get enough of the ball on a forward flank. When it's almost anyone else, he looks dumb. Picture ANB or Gawn or even Jones, Trac kicking inside fifty. There's some pretty awkward touch in amongst those names. I don't even think Ben Brown would have him beaten. And if you want a list of forwards in his class that I think are slower. There's one. Daniher another. McCarthy. Tomohawk. Westhoff. Dixon. McCartin.... there's more than a few that move similar or slower than him. He's a big lad after all.

3. Can agree to disagree too. I've seen him kick for tough many times. I'm not saying he's Salem or anything, but he has the deft touch. I think where you have a point is the Tracca-like kick, 50 metre lofted ball that lands softly in the lap of a forward running full tilt. Jesse doesn't have that kick. Then again... I don't recall too many demons in my life that do. Thing of beauty.

4. Yeah certainly haven't seen it since his first two big years and a little in his injury-riddled year. But as I say... I'm confident he'll find that again. I have a feeling his endurance work has sapped his burst energy. Gee he was blowing hard at the end of games.

5. What's the key difference between Kennedy, Buddy and Riewoldt vs Hogan. Age. What were those three guys doing, defensively, in their early 20s? Absolutely NOTHING. That's not an excuse, of course. But as I say, I think when a player like him isn't working better in that area it can be because his coach has set him a role. He leads so much and runs so far, doubles back... then sits in a pocket. I'm not sure where hes supposed to defend within that routine. That's not to say I disagree... but it's worth pointing out Riewoldt plays a vastly different role. So does Buddy. Actually only Kennedy is similar.

No disagreement from me on Jack Reiwoldt. My favourite non-demon. Has been for about 5 years.

I've always loved Hogan precisely because he does all the KP forward stuff well (at least). I've always wanted to have one that doesn't have a glaring weakness. That's what I see with Jesse. When the worst people can say definitively on him is that he has odd body language sometimes, I reckon it's cos he's above average in every other category. That's why I love him. It builds trust from a fan's perspective.

Weird that we're discussing a player this much who won't even be at MFC in a few weeks. I would point out though, that we can dispute how we see him as a player all we want... I suspect what's really important is only how FREO see him. He's already a decorated player. Rising stars and club goalkicker awards... As much as we have our thoughts... It's Freo's and Peter Bell's that are important.

[Dr. Gonzo 24,207]

3 hours ago, Baghdad Bob said:

Don't worry Wise, it's all click bait and a lot of other publications and journalists just realized they missed the story and are playing catch up.

Still in denial?  I like your positivity usually but it's got to be delivered with some sensible recognition of the situation.  You're a bit poor on that lately.

C'mon mate no need for cheap shots. You're a good poster, people will be understandably upset and in denial upon hearing this. Give them some space.

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

7 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

We didn't exactly trade two first rounders for him, we trade 3 & 14 and got back pick 20 and Dom Barry as well as the minidraft pick for Hogan. So we traded pick 3 and a 6 pick downgrade from 14 to 20 (can exclude Dom Barry if you want).

I swear to god I thought Scully was involved somehow...

[Dr. Gonzo 24,207]

Just now, Dappa Dan said:

I swear to god I thought Scully was involved somehow...

Pick 13 (or 14 it ended up being I think) was the compo pick we got for Scully leaving.

[drysdale demon 4,830]

Just now, Dappa Dan said:

I swear to god I thought Scully was involved somehow...

No

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

Just now, Dr. Gonzo said:

Pick 13 (or 14 it ended up being I think) was the compo pick we got for Scully leaving.

 

Just now, drysdale demon said:

No

That was it.

[Gator 17,332]

32 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

1. His tank is great, on a long lead that's fine but I don't see him get space on a short lead or sprint away from opponents when the ball hits the ground. Often he'll gather the ball and try to turn back away from goal rather than take them on.  I don't know exactly how Hoges would go in a 20m or 40m sprint but I think most gun key forwards would have him covered.

2. This one is the most glaring. I'm surprised you don't see it. He never connects with the midfielders when deep forward. I know our mids burn the ball but good forwards make it easy for them. Hogan is often just pleading for a long bombed kick.

3. Willing to agree to disagree but the way he kicks the ball so across his body means he only has a stab kick, no variation, he'll never be able to weight the ball over a defender

4. One on one body work he's great. But in terms of actually leaping at a pack mark I haven't seen it since year 1 or 2. I'm not sure if it's a lack of confidence in his knees or back or a lack of explosiveness but he's a wrestler not a leaper. McDonald and Weideman are both far better at really jumping for the ball. 

5. Josh Kennedy defends, J Riewoldt defends, when he's fit and healthy Buddy defends. It's not the be all and end all but it's a knock. Tommy McDonald's ankles don't work so he doesn't do a great job of it and Melksham likes to stand and watch. It's easy to get to a critical mass of forwards who don't launch in and lay tackles if Hogan is in that group as well.

Ben Brown is a more limited footballer than Hogan but he's exceptional and at leading, marking and being a big bugger. Jack Riewoldt is the best and most well rounded forward in the game, if the stats don't show that then chuck them out.

Fair point about Tom Mitchell but he is the games best ball winner, that's his remarkable skill to go with doing enough in other areas. I don't know if Hogan's best traits are truly exceptional.

It's just rubbish to say Hogan is below average in the pace stakes.  I've always thought him above average for a bollocking key forward.

This from when he was drafted:

At 195 cm and 97.4 kg, Hogan ran a 20 metre sprint at the recent NAB AFL Draft Combine in 3.02 seconds - regarded as midfield standard. He also ran the three km time trial in 10 minutes 20 seconds.

[ArtificialWisdom 4,045]

Jesse Is a great young forward, but this thread is getting into some Essendon like Demands. Some of these trade demands would make it the biggest trade price of all time... I'm not sure he is that good, no matter how much we want him to be. If we somehow can get May and a first round pick (even if it was early teens) that would be a pretty big win.  Keeping in mind we paid a "huge price" for Lever and that was picks 10 and 15.

Some people are talking 2 picks in the top 5 or 6?? Freo would have to be completely incompetent to pay that. Just wait a year till he's out of contract and see how that navicular pulls up... knowing Melbourne's history with foot injuries he might not play all year then they can get him for a bargain. "out of contract and injury riddled"

 

[Dr. Gonzo 24,207]

2 hours ago, Demon17 said:

Exactly.  My understanding from a club source is that hogan has been groomed as a high half foward utility type and that weideman was seen as the tall forward. Hence hogans up ground time this year and given his aerobic capacity.  

Nuts to trade such a quality player. I dont care who would come in. Goody trades out those who dont fit. Watts......

Hogan is a star.

We're not gonna trade him unless he asks to go home. If he does we'd be nuts (and pretty hard hearted considering his circumstances) to hold him to his contract.

[Gator 17,332]

I've never been open to trading Hogan before, but I didn't know Weideman would be BOG in a final (and he'll become an exceptional key forward) and who knew McDonald would become a 60 goal capable key forward ?

I'd still prefer he stays, but if the deal is right it could potentially even improve us.

I'll back the club to make the right decision.

[Dr. Gonzo 24,207]

2 hours ago, Bring Back Barassi said:

I wouldnt be so sure that we will get two first round picks or equivalent. Mahoney and Goodwin have proven themselves to be soft touches when it come to the trade table. They paid overs for Lever and got unders for Watts. Same will most likely happen again

How can you say we got unders for Watts? He proved himself to be nothing more than a fringe player at Port and Fritsch (who we took with the pick we got) played 23 games for us. Do people still not realise Watts is just not that good?

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

5 minutes ago, ArtificialWisdom said:

Keeping in mind we paid a "huge price" for Lever and that was picks 10 and 15.

Some people are talking 2 picks in the top 5 or 6??

Lever wasn't even contracted and is nowhere near as good a player as Jesse. The price HAS to be a lot higher than two mid-late firsts. Jesse is a once in a generation KP forward. They don't grow on trees. Noone-'s offering ridiculous trades here. The only ridiculous one is two firsts and Brayshaw. And even then, it's only ridiculous cos they can't afford it. Not because it isn't fair.

Check out the kinds of trades other professional sports throw up for players that aren't even once-in-a-generation. We're quaint and provincial if we think 2 first rounders is somehow a wacky, nutty offer. 

Edited September 25, 2018 by Dappa Dan

[Beetle 4,652]

12 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

C'mon mate no need for cheap shots. You're a good poster, people will be understandably upset and in denial upon hearing this. Give them some space.

Didn’t stop the cheap shots back in April when I stated the club tried to trade him last year and it didn’t sit well with him..

 

 

[rpfc 28,383]

Hogan is a stud.

If he wants to go then we can facilitate of course but I think he is a match winner. 

I am comfortable with what the FD makes of the situation which is a great feeling, but if he wants to stay within our wage structure then I would keep him.

Sigh.

[Willmoy1947 4,085]

Why are the top Teams in the AFL able to bring in or keep most if not all of their Class Players to be  on board, with reduced offers centred around everyone getting their fair share, which accelerates when there is more success as a consequence, except maybe us...ergo Hogan?

[ChaserJ 5,083]

44 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

6 and 9 is a bit light but it's getting there... depends what can be done with 9 player trade wise

I would prefer 4 and 6 or thereabouts

Mind you Redleg thinks we should get 4,6 and Brayshaw .. like his thinking

If we get 6 and 9, keep 6, trade 9 for May.

[Sir Why You Little 37,033]

12 minutes ago, willmoy said:

Why are the top Teams in the AFL able to bring in or keep most if not all of their Class Players to be  on board, with reduced offers centred around everyone getting their fair share, which accelerates when there is more success as a consequence, except maybe us...ergo Hogan?

Because we are not a Top Side yet...

close, but not there...

[Dr. Gonzo 24,207]

1 hour ago, DeeSpencer said:

I think you're overrating Hogan. And I think the club agrees with me because if he was really a super dooper superstar we wouldn't even entertain the idea of a trade.

My issues with Hogan are:
1. Pace - he's not super quick and so struggles to burn an opponent either on the lead or when the ball is on the ground

2. Leading patterns - repeatedly he gets out of position as a deep forward. Far better leading up the ground, but the way footy is played right now doesn't favour the lead up CHF. Similarly Tom McDonald is excellent in that role

3. Kicking skills - whilst his goal kicking has improved and is very good inside 45m the way he hooks the ball around his body means he struggles for distance and struggles to weight the ball inside 50. If he gets the ball 60m out it often ends with a turnover or dumped kick.

4. Lack of a leap - how often does he take the big pack grabs out reaching opponents - very rarely

5. Defensive effort - it's just not there. He tried much harder this year but it clearly doesn't come naturally to him. Poor tackler and again the lack of speed comes in here

I think Hogan is an excellent player - runs all day, clean hands on both sides of his body, mobile like a midfielder around the packs, kicks his goals at a good rate, but I don't think he's the special kind of player that will get the whole farm in a trade. 

I don't want draft picks for him, I think most are in agreement there, but if the trade is Hogan for May and another best 22 player with upside then I'd do that. May and Ed Langdon is my suggestion.

He also has a tendency to beat up on poor teams and have less impact against the top sides.

I'm not gonna lie, if this was last year I'd be distraught but I've fallen out of love with Hogan a bit this year. Not as in I no longer love him as a player or want him gone, just that if he goes I won't feel like my heart's been ripped out like I would've in the past. He's had injury but even earlier in the year he had a great run while we were smashing sides and didn't do much when we really needed him to stand up. He still misses too many regulation goals as well, especially against the Swans which cost us big time. Yeah he was injured but if your ok to play then you still kick those goals

If he ends up staying, great. If he leaves, let's see what we get.

[Dr. Gonzo 24,207]

1 hour ago, Cards13 said:

 

Happy to put my hand up if I get it wrong, I still can’t get my head around it.

He hasn’t asked to be traded has he? Didn’t someone post in his exit interview he didn’t ask to be traded? 

I reckon since then Freos put a big offer to his management which has given him cause to consider his options. Combined with the club seeing Weid come on in September and us talking to May and things seem to be adding up.

Why would we be talking to May last week knowing we had no chips to play for him? We must have had an inkling something was going on.

[Moonshadow 17,676]

2 hours ago, Wiseblood said:

 

There is far, FAR, more to the story than there was 24 hours ago.  Reports from different outlets are slightly different, but it seems there is something in it.  So, with that in mind, it's worth discussing.  Before that, to me, it wasn't.  Now that we know more it's hard to ignore and there is more validity in the discussion.

 

Far more? Has this come from Jesse?  His management? Goodwin? The club? Or just mixed media reports in which "it is understood"? What's changed, apart from your nervousness? After all, he is apparently happy at the club and settled in Melbourne, which must be true, so he surely can't be traded, right????

Posters such as Bub, Febes and I have put up with a bunch of outragists shouting us down or demanding the thread be closed simply because we dared to discuss Hogan being tradable for the right price. Now you are doing the same, despite nothing from anyone outside of the media. Not your finest hour Wise.

Might only be 2 weeks away from serving up a big slice of humble pie to a few on here, as much as I'd rather not. 

 

 

Edited September 25, 2018 by Moonshadow

[Cards13 9,117]

1 hour ago, qwerty7 said:

It was said On the Couch tonight that basically there has been some sort of shift in the Hogan trade talk within the last few days - it seems that they are not as definitive about him staying now. However, the trade is not being driven by the club at all, they want him to stay; it is either being driven by Freo or Hogan.

The case, IMO, is that Freo are driving it and have proposed something quite tempting to Hogan’s management. Perhaps Hogan’s management are using the talk to up Melbourne’s offer that they will no doubt begin discussing with him as part of probably a long term contract extension. This last paragraph is just my opinion though, no sources.

I think he will resign on long term extension, but if not, we should play hard ball and accept nothing less than two first round draft picks.

Wtf?! So neither Hogan or Dees have discussed a trade, this is being driven by Freo?! 

Shaking the tree to see if the apple falls. Still doesn’t feel right to me. 

[WERRIDEE 5,472]

Freo have pick 6 and 7 (if Neale leaves). That is the minimum we will get for him.

[qwerty7 326]

4 minutes ago, Cards13 said:

Wtf?! So neither Hogan or Dees have discussed a trade, this is being driven by Freo?! 

Shaking the tree to see if the apple falls. Still doesn’t feel right to me. 

From what I gathered, it is a case of Freo contacting Hogan management and Melbourne being made aware of this. Melbourne would prefer to keep Hogan but if he declares that he would like to go home - which no one has officially reported he has, only that he is “open to it” - then Melbourne would begin discussions.But ultimately, Melbourne see hoges as a part of our future and would like to keep him. 

The fact that there has been no adamant declaration he wants to leave, only “open” to a trade, suggests to me that it is perhaps his management team at work as they probably begin discussions for a contract extension with Melbourne.

truthfully, no one knows anything but my gut feeling is that it is all just noise and that hoges will stay a dee.

[Wiseblood 24,637]

9 minutes ago, Moonshadow said:

 

Posters such as Bub, Febes and I have put up with a bunch of outragists

Want a trophy?  Perhaps a cape to crusade against these outragists?  You guys can form a little posse to take them all down, one by one.

I'm happy to discuss it now as there is, potentially, something in it.  There was nothing before.  Now, there is.  So you talk about it.  That's life.

He may well be still very happy in Victoria and with the club and there may be nothing in it at all.  So, I'll be right there.  If not, which is something that is now being reported and which wasn't before, then the hope is the club gets the best outcome.

Cheers.

[Moonshadow 17,676]

5 hours ago, Redbeard said:

Perhaps Gawn/Preuss will be the third tall behind TMac and Weid?

That's what I was thinking, given Preuss' desire to get more game time in the seniors. He's a handy player when positioned forward, and has done some impressive things there in his limited games at Norf. Maybe Goodwin has told Preuss that there's a forward/ruck spot for him in the knowledge Hogan will go.