Farewell Jesse Hogan

[Its Time for Another 4,088]

35 minutes ago, bing181 said:

Freo on a hiding to nothing here. They need a low first or decent second round pick to get Lobb, but hard to see where it's going to come from, as neither we (Hogan) nor Brisbane (Neale) have one. You'd think that neither our second rounder (36) or Brisbane's (32) wouldn't be enough for GWS.

Complicated.

Pick trading between 4 teams will get it done. We've done stuff like that before. 

[YesitwasaWin4theAges 6,584]

49 minutes ago, bing181 said:

May won't be available as FA. Either he'll come to us or the Pies, or he'll re-sign a long-term deal at GC. The May situation has come up for the same reason the Hogan one has: clubs don't want players hanging round for a year till their contract runs out or they become FA. If they won't commit long-term, they're let go.

Pies can't facilitate a trade that would suit GC. Pick 18 and then 51, no chance GC would even comtemplate that.

[Neitz the Great 555]

If Freo do a trade with adelaide for 5 + something for Pick 13 and 16, 

Freo trades us pick 6 and 13 for Hogan, 

We trade GC pick 13 and 2018 FR pick for May and Pick 19

We then trade pick 6 and 19 plus steak knives to Port Adelaide for pick 10 and 11

All parties would have to agree to it but could be a way to work around the deadlock in picks.

Thoughts?

Edited October 10, 2018 by Neitz the Great

[Matsuo Basho 1,053]

37 minutes ago, Graeme Yeats' Mullet said:

I did go back through the last 12 drafts and @Demons11 has a good point - 2 picks may be more attractive than 1 higher one,  particularly in a 'super draft' year as reports suggest

There's always been plenty of great talent in the 7-14 range (barring 2009 which looked a pretty average draft and 2016-17 too early to tell), also a few flops in the top 7.

Selwood, Dangerfield, Rioli, Riewoldt, Ziebel, Davis, Sidebottom, Lynch, Greene, Dev Smith, .... etc etc

So unsurprisingly it's got a lot to do with ability to pick the talent. 

I understand you can still pick up very good players in the 8 - 15 range, however the odds are much higher you’re going to pick up a future star of the competition in the top 5 picks. That’s why they are valued so highly. The ratio of hits to misses increases the lower down the draft order you go.

Freo’s 5 & 6 might get the Suns interested in a conversation about say pick 2 ... but picks 8&13 or 10&11? Highly unlikely. 

Edited October 10, 2018 by EnterTheDragon

[Lord Neville X Flash 250]

16 minutes ago, Neitz the Great said:

If Freo do a trade with adelaide for 5 + something for Pick 13 and 16, 

Freo trades us pick 6 and 13 for Hogan, 

We trade GC pick 13 and 2018 FR pick for May and Pick 19

We then trade pick 6 and 19 plus steak knives to Port Adelaide for pick 10 and 11

All parties would have to agree to it but could be a way to work around the deadlock in picks.

Thoughts?

Not bad, except i would just keep 6 and 19 if that deal went through. 

Only issue here is GC, i would think we would receive 2019 second rounder instead of pick 19. Remembering gold coast would get pick 2 or 3 next year if they made him sit out a year. 

[Matsuo Basho 1,053]

(from today’s Trade Wrap on AFL.com.au):

There’s a possibility (of us trying to trade up for the two SA boys Lukosius and Rankine) we're not ruling anything out, we're certainly open minded. But at the same time, it's very rare that high-end picks move – top three, top five or even top eight," Crows list boss Justin Reid said. 

"You can always ask the question, it doesn't mean it's going to facilitate the end result. 

"We rate that South Australian talent highly, but at the same time we're not going to sell the farm to get to that position."

Edited October 10, 2018 by EnterTheDragon

[YesitwasaWin4theAges 6,584]

29 minutes ago, EnterTheDragon said:

Freo’s 5 & 6 might get the Suns interested in a conversation about say pick 2 ... but picks 8&13 or 10&11? Highly unlikely. 

A bit of a stretch for those picks from Crows or Port.

[YesitwasaWin4theAges 6,584]

7 minutes ago, EnterTheDragon said:

"We rate that South Australian talent highly, but at the same time we're not going to sell the farm to get to that position."

Those top 4 picks aren't changing hands IMO,  unless Freo stump up 5&6 for maybe GC's 2nd.

That being said I reckon that would be crazy from Freo.

Edited October 10, 2018 by Win4theAges

[old55 22,842]

17 minutes ago, EnterTheDragon said:

(from today’s Trade Wrap on AFL.com.au):

There’s a possibility (of us trying to trade up for the two SA boys Lukosius and Rankine) we're not ruling anything out, we're certainly open minded. But at the same time, it's very rare that high-end picks move – top three, top five or even top eight," Crows list boss Justin Reid said. 

"You can always ask the question, it doesn't mean it's going to facilitate the end result. 

"We rate that South Australian talent highly, but at the same time we're not going to sell the farm to get to that position."

Crows notoriously conservative in trading.  It has cost them big time IMO.

[Axis of Bob 11,217]

8 minutes ago, Fifty-5 said:

Crows notoriously conservative in trading.  It has cost them big time IMO.

Bryce Gibbs would have really helped in that Grand Final.

But at least they didn't lose the trade. ?

[deeboy 40]

I think it is pretty clear that Hogan is happy to go to Fremantle if a deal can be struck and Melbourne is happy to let him go if we can get sufficient compensation to enable us to get May and have a first round pick. I would hope that we wouldn't trade Hogan unless we have the May deal sewn up.

While I understand that Mahoney and co have historically adopted a reasonable and cooperative approach to negotiating trades, and I have no problem with that, the time has come to be a little dogmatic and belligerent. Hogan is contracted for next year and we are finally in a position to challenge for a premiership. 

I have been extremely disappointed with how the club has been addressing the potential Hogan trade. Surely, the best approach is to simply insist that Hogan is contracted and a required player, but that if an absurd deal was put forward we would consider it. The ball has to be put in Fremantle's court to offer up something so significant that it forces our hand, instead of our approach of setting our price and then negotiating from there.

I understand the desire to get May and the belief that it will address a key need, but if the choice is May or Hogan, I would go Hogan. If the club is confident that Weideman is ready to play as our second key forward, then (as much as I would hate it) we can always throw Tom McDonald to full back to play on the gorillas when required.

The other issue I have is that the value being placed on Hogan is far too low. What has constantly been overlooked is what we initially paid to get him. In 2012 we gave up picks 3 and 14 for Hogan, Dom Barry (steak knives) and pick 20. We effectively gave up two first round picks for Hogan and a second round pick. At the time he was unproven. Now he is a rising star winner and genuine match winner. Yes, he has had some injuries, but his value now is far higher than it was in 2012 before he had kicked a goal or played a game. However, our demands do not properly reflect the value the club even placed on him.

The other comparable trade is Tom Boyd. Boyd had played one season and had not yet proved anything, so was worth less than Hogan is now. However, he was traded for pick 6 and Ryan Griffen. Griffen at the time was a dual best and fairest winner, club captain, all australian and had finished 6th in the AFLPA MVP award a year earlier. His normal value at the time, had Boyd not been involved, would have been two first round picks, with one of them being a top 10 pick. Accordingly, Boyd's value was assessed as effectively three first round picks.

Mahoney said that Hogan would be worth more than any other trade in history. He is right, but his demands don't align.

[The Backyard Charizard 1,202]

2 hours ago, Win4theAges said:

He looks alot like Watts doesnt he? I watched him play a couple of times during the SANFL finals series, he plays alot like him.

Rankine is the one to get.

Luke Power (AFL Academy coach) was interviewed on 5AA last week and in reference to Rankine he said "He's the best I've seen come through the system"

It was then mentioned that Luke has only been in the role for two years to which he replied, "I'm saying throughout my whole career!"

??? Big wraps!

[Matsuo Basho 1,053]

22 minutes ago, deeboy said:

I have been extremely disappointed with how the club has been addressing the potential Hogan trade. Surely, the best approach is to simply insist that Hogan is contracted and a required player, but that if an absurd deal was put forward we would consider it.

You’re “extremely disappointed” with the way the club is addressing the Hogan trade then describe exactly (in bold) the way Mahoney has handled things so far!

Mmkay.

[deeboy 40]

1 minute ago, EnterTheDragon said:

You’re “extremely disappointed” with the way the club is addressing the Hogan trade then describe exactly (in bold) the way Mahoney has handled things so far!

Mmkay.

Except that Mahoney hasn't done that. He has openly stated we are happy for Jesse to explore going home and will accept two first round picks in return. That is not an absurd deal (perhaps read the rest of my post as to what I say an absurd deal is). It is also not saying he is a required player.

Mmkay?

[layzie 32,938]

Zigmund, look at the sky. The planet is on fire! 

[Matsuo Basho 1,053]

2 minutes ago, deeboy said:

Except that Mahoney hasn't done that. He has openly stated we are happy for Jesse to explore going home and will accept two first round picks in return. That is not an absurd deal (perhaps read the rest of my post as to what I say an absurd deal is). It is also not saying he is a required player.

Mmkay?

Nope. Mahoney has said nothing about two first round picks. You’re taking something a journo said and putting words in his mouth.

Mahoney has effectively said two things. 

1. “Jesse could still be playing for Melbourne next year.”

2. “If he does get traded we think he’s going to be right up at the highest that anyone has been traded for”.

Seems fine to me. Hardly the sort of rhetoric to be “extremely disappointed” about. But each to their own.

[Little Goffy 14,027]

2 hours ago, Graeme Yeats' Mullet said:

I did go back through the last 12 drafts and @Demons11 has a good point - 2 picks may be more attractive than 1 higher one,  particularly in a 'super draft' year as reports suggest

There's always been plenty of great talent in the 7-14 range (barring 2009 which looked a pretty average draft and 2016-17 too early to tell), also a few flops in the top 7.

Selwood, Dangerfield, Rioli, Riewoldt, Ziebel, Davis, Sidebottom, Lynch, Greene, Dev Smith, .... etc etc

So unsurprisingly it's got a lot to do with ability to pick the talent. 

Lever. Jones. Salem. Weidemann.

[Pates 9,625]

14 minutes ago, EnterTheDragon said:

Nope. Mahoney has said nothing about two first round picks. You’re taking something a journo said and putting words in his mouth.

Mahoney has effectively said two things. 

1. “Jesse could still be playing for Melbourne next year.”

2. “If he does get traded we think he’s going to be right up at the highest that anyone has been traded for”.

Seems fine to me. Hardly the sort of rhetoric to be “extremely disappointed” about. But each to their own.

Depends on whether what’s being said in the news is close to the truth. There are some reporting that we have softened on the idea of a second high draft pick going so far to suggest a pick 5 plus a low second rounder would get the job done. 

I’m hoping that’s pure speculation because if true that is disgraceful and should never be entertained. If we lose Hogan we MUST be coming out the other side saying “oh well it sucks but we’ve been given an amazing deal”. 

I will be very annoyed with Mahoney if he drops the two first round picks deal. We should be bargaining hard for 5 + 12 and below. We can send back a second or third rounder if they want but I don’t like the idea of us swapping future first round picks next year.  

We have to be willing to walk away from the table if they don’t satisfy us. 

Edited October 10, 2018 by Pates

[deeboy 40]

9 minutes ago, EnterTheDragon said:

Nope. Mahoney has said nothing about two first round picks. You’re taking something a journo said and putting words in his mouth.

Mahoney has effectively said two things. 

1. “Jesse could still be playing for Melbourne next year.”

2. “If he does get traded we think he’s going to be right up at the highest that anyone has been traded for”.

Seems fine to me. Hardly the sort of rhetoric to be “extremely disappointed” about. But each to their own.

"He's got to make up his mind whether he wants to leave," Mahoney said.

"We have to speak to Fremantle and see if there's a deal that we'd look at. At this stage, we haven't heard anything, so we'd expect Jesse to play with us.

"That could change during this week, but that's what trade period is all about. We'll have those discussions early this week."

That is not saying he is a required player and we aren't looking to trade him unless we get a ridiculous offer. That's clearly indicating we are prepared to talk and initiate conversation about it.

The two first round picks may simply be journalist reports, but it is coming from a reliable source within Melbourne. I deal with the media and assure you that our club like all others speak to media to get out what they want. This is one of those occasions.

[Matsuo Basho 1,053]

8 minutes ago, deeboy said:

"He's got to make up his mind whether he wants to leave," Mahoney said.

"We have to speak to Fremantle and see if there's a deal that we'd look at. At this stage, we haven't heard anything, so we'd expect Jesse to play with us.

"That could change during this week, but that's what trade period is all about. We'll have those discussions early this week."

That is not saying he is a required player and we aren't looking to trade him unless we get a ridiculous offer. That's clearly indicating we are prepared to talk and initiate conversation about it.

The two first round picks may simply be journalist reports, but it is coming from a reliable source within Melbourne. I deal with the media and assure you that our club like all others speak to media to get out what they want. This is one of those occasions.

If you ‘deal with the media’ then you will know that the media twists words and constructs narratives to suit itself. 

Mahoney has said nothing to give supporters cause for one iota of concern on this possible trade (and that’s all it is at this stage - a possible trade) and you have no idea what “sources within Melbourne” are saying. 

Basically you are a paranoid worrywart getting your knickers in a twist over nothing.

[DeeSpencer 24,784]

1 hour ago, deeboy said:

I understand the desire to get May and the belief that it will address a key need, but if the choice is May or Hogan, I would go Hogan. If the club is confident that Weideman is ready to play as our second key forward, then (as much as I would hate it) we can always throw Tom McDonald to full back to play on the gorillas when required.

So instead of getting a gun full back the plan is to just throw Tom McDonald back, even though he's our best key forward, and just hope his lack of agility and horrendous kicking from the backline have just fixed themselves? What kind of plan is that?

1 hour ago, deeboy said:

The other issue I have is that the value being placed on Hogan is far too low. What has constantly been overlooked is what we initially paid to get him. In 2012 we gave up picks 3 and 14 for Hogan, Dom Barry (steak knives) and pick 20. We effectively gave up two first round picks for Hogan and a second round pick. At the time he was unproven. Now he is a rising star winner and genuine match winner. Yes, he has had some injuries, but his value now is far higher than it was in 2012 before he had kicked a goal or played a game. However, our demands do not properly reflect the value the club even placed on him.

Trading from pick 14 back to 20, then adding a pick 3, it accounts to Hogan being worth pick 1. Then he won the Rising Star, he was probably still worth pick 1 if not more. But it's been 3 years since and apart from injuries and personal issues he just hasn't looked like a true superstar. He doesn't kick huge bags of goals, he doesn't take over games regularly, he doesn't do the freakish. Plenty of players have won the Rising Star and become good players without ever being of the same value. Don't act like Hogan is similar to someone like Buddy or Nick Riewoldt, it just isn't true.

1 hour ago, deeboy said:

The other comparable trade is Tom Boyd. Boyd had played one season and had not yet proved anything, so was worth less than Hogan is now. However, he was traded for pick 6 and Ryan Griffen. Griffen at the time was a dual best and fairest winner, club captain, all australian and had finished 6th in the AFLPA MVP award a year earlier. His normal value at the time, had Boyd not been involved, would have been two first round picks, with one of them being a top 10 pick. Accordingly, Boyd's value was assessed as effectively three first round picks.

Mahoney said that Hogan would be worth more than any other trade in history. He is right, but his demands don't align.

The Dogs gave Boyd the 2nd biggest contract in the history of the game. A mistake but a mistake they were always going to trade for. He was a pick 1 who they thought would play like a pick 1 - ignoring the more recent history of pick 1's and the evolving nature of the game. Griffen was 28 and banged up that year, no team apart from the pick rich Giants would've offered more than 1 first round pick, but it doesn't really matter. Boyd was still a rare overpay, there's no point comparing. 

Pretty much it comes down to the fact the Dees are happy to trade Hogan for a reasonable deal, not just the massive mega deal. If they weren't it wouldn't have got this far.

[Matsuo Basho 1,053]

12 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

So instead of getting a gun full back the plan is to just throw Tom McDonald back, even though he's our best key forward, and just hope his lack of agility and horrendous kicking from the backline have just fixed themselves? What kind of plan is that?

Trading from pick 14 back to 20, then adding a pick 3, it accounts to Hogan being worth pick 1. Then he won the Rising Star, he was probably still worth pick 1 if not more. But it's been 3 years since and apart from injuries and personal issues he just hasn't looked like a true superstar. He doesn't kick huge bags of goals, he doesn't take over games regularly, he doesn't do the freakish. Plenty of players have won the Rising Star and become good players without ever being of the same value. Don't act like Hogan is similar to someone like Buddy or Nick Riewoldt, it just isn't true.

The Dogs gave Boyd the 2nd biggest contract in the history of the game. A mistake but a mistake they were always going to trade for. He was a pick 1 who they thought would play like a pick 1 - ignoring the more recent history of pick 1's and the evolving nature of the game. Griffen was 28 and banged up that year, no team apart from the pick rich Giants would've offered more than 1 first round pick, but it doesn't really matter. Boyd was still a rare overpay, there's no point comparing. 

Pretty much it comes down to the fact the Dees are happy to trade Hogan for a reasonable deal, not just the massive mega deal. If they weren't it wouldn't have got this far.

Too much sense there DeeSpencer.

In five years the current club administration has hauled itself off the bottom of the ladder, increased its win/loss incrementally EVERY SEASON, recruited marvellously well and finally this year made the eight and won not one but TWO finals.

Boy oh boy there is just no pleasing some people.

[McQueen 17,864]

.

Edited October 10, 2018 by McQueen
.

[Uncle Fester 2,843]

29 minutes ago, McQueen said:

.

Most sensible post I've seen in the whole thread.

[bing181 8,999]

1 hour ago, DeeSpencer said:

The Dogs gave Boyd the 2nd biggest contract in the history of the game. A mistake but a mistake they were always going to trade for.

Also a mistake that was a major factor in them winning a grand final.