Thought I may start this thread to open the discussion into the players some people think may not be at the club for any number of reasons next year.  

Having looked through our list, I came up with 14 that I think fall into this category.  Not to say I don't think all 14 wont be there, but that they're the 14 most in danger so to speak and anywhere from half to 10 of them may not be there.  So thought I'd lay them out and see what other people thought or if there were other players people also thought would fall into this bracket.

RETIREMENTS:

Harley Balic (already retired)

Cameron Pedersen & Bernie Vince: Now these two may retire off their own bat, or they may get delisted.  But I highly doubt either of these two will be there next year.  Pedersen is probably playing well enough at VFL level to be picked up by another club as a good depth player.   Bernie is on the record as saying in the media he wants to play for as long as he can.  If no other club is interested, maybe he'd be happy to sign on at Casey to help develop the young guys?

 

POTENTIAL TRADE BAIT:

Sam Frost: He's contracted and I think he'll likely stay, but with Lever to return next year and both Harrison Petty & Declan Keilty on the list, will Sam or the club see the writting on the wall on look to explore their options?  Personally I think he's more likely to stay then leave unless we get an offer to good to refuse.

Dean Kent: Out of contract and out of favor, Dean may look to explore his options at years end.  With Jeffy not getting any younger, I think think there's a potential role in our best 22 for Dean, however a combination of form and injuries haven't allowed him to cement a spot.  WA boy, however I think he's either about to or has just recently become a father, so not sure if his partner is a WA or VIC girl?  50/50 on whether Dean stays or goes for me.

Dom Tyson: Similar to Frost, Dom is contracted and at his best we know that he's a very good player.  However, with a midfield of Oliver, Brayshaw, Viney hopefully being injury free and Jones I think still having 2 years left in him beyond this year, is there a spot for Dom in our best team?  He's also too good a player to be a depth player, spending half the year in the VFL IMO.  We may use Dom to try and improve our draft hand, given we have no first round pick, or he may come to us and request a trade himself if he wants to further his opportunities.  Either way, as he's contracted, it will need to be a good trade.  Think Dom may be more likely to leave then stay, but that's just a gut feel.

 

POTENTIAL DELISTINGS:

Tom Bugg: I'm going to be honest and admitt that I like Tommy Bugg.  I see value in a depth player like Bugg and was actually surprised when Vandenberg came in for Melksham the other week, as I see that as a role that Bugg would perform well in.  Having said that, I'm a realist and the lack of matches Bugg has played this year, especially in the 2nd half of the year says it all.  I expect him to be delisted, but hope another team picks him up as a DFA.

Lachie Filipovic: Pretty sure it was 4 or 5 out of his first 6 games in the VFL D-League last year, Lachie was named in the best, and I was thinking to myself we could have a good one here!  However to say this year has been disapointing from a supporters point of view would be a huge understatement.  He looks athletic and agile enough, but from the half dozen games I've watched Flip this year, he just isn't competative enough in the ruck, doesn't get involved enough in the play, and can't seem to take a mark to save himself.  I know rucks take time, but Lachie looks a long, long way off.  This was most evident on the weekend when Mitch King injured his knee and instead of Flip going into the ruck, Tim Smith & Weideman were asked to share those responsibilities.  Will be shocked if he's still there come next year.

Dion Johnston: Quite bizzare is the Dion Johnston story so far.  Recruited as a small forward and was talked up heavily in his first pre-season by Nathan Jones as someone to watch out for.  And although Plapp regularly sung his praises re: his forward pressure and doing the team things at Casey throughout his first season, the main thing that stood out was Dion's inability to hit the score board or get much of the ball.  Things seemed to be following a similar trend early this year, until Rawlings moved Dion into a small defenders role and it was reported Dion had also been teamed up with Nev as a mentor.  Now since the move Dion certainly hasn't dominated, but he's looked a lot more at home in defence and there could well be something there to work with.  He's no certainty to be on the list next year, however I wouldn't be surprised if he received a 1 year extension to push his case further, and personally I'd be more then happy with that.

Declan Keilty: When we recruited Declan at the end of 2016 I was wrapped that we got him as I saw a huge amount of upside in this guy.  Good CHB with the ability to play forward and pinch hit in the ruck.  I then thought his 2017 was a little underwhelming and was a little surprised when he was given another year for 2018.  However I'm glad the coaches did as I think he has been sensational down at Casey this year.  Played mainly back with a couple of stints forward, Declan's aerial game especially has gone to another level this year.  Now the club may consider delisting him given Lever & Oscar seem to be the prefered options, Petty is coming through and the fact Frost is also contracted.  However given Declan's versatility and the fact Pedersen will likely be moved on, I think the club will see Declan as our new Pedersen with the ability to fill holes where required.  I hope & expect Declan to be given a 3rd year on the rookie list.

Jay Kennedy-Harris: Like many on here, about 6 weeks ago I thought JKH was an automatic delist come years end, however he's grasped this opportunity that has come his way thanks to good form in the VFL prior and an unfortunate injury to Stretch.  I conceed JKH lacks certain tricks, however he does the team things well and there's nothing wrong with retaining certain foot soldiers.  I'd imagine he's played his way into a new 1 year deal if he wants it.

Mitch King: Of the two young ruckman on our list, Mitch King is the more promising.  He does show a willingness to compete and drift forward to take a mark and goal.  He's also had injury issues in his three years at the club including doing an ACL on his VFL debut back in 2016.  However despite these admirable traits, King gets monstered on a regular basis at VFL level, meaning I'd hate to see what would happen if Max got injured and Mitch came in for him in the AFL.  Mitch could well make it at AFL level, however I suspect that may well be up to 5 years away, which is a big investment to make with no guarentees.  I'd imagine the club is more likely then not to delist and encourage him to join a VFL, SANFL, WAFL or NEAFL team and follow his progress.

Pat McKenna: Was best on ground in the 2016 NEAFL Grand Final the smooth moving midfielder/half back with good kicking skills.  The talented junior cricket star has been crueled by hamstring injuries since joining the club, but in the last few weeks he's finally been able to get out on the park for Casey.  Baring any major hamstring injury in the last few weeks of this season, I expect the club will give him a further 1 year deal in the same manner they gave Hunt 1 year after his initial 2 years that were hampered by back issues.

Tim Smith: Has been in & out of the team this year and been not to bad when given the opportunity.  Has shown that he is a very good and mobile forward at VFL level, and his aerobic capacity makes him an ideal call up for either of Hogan or Tommy Mc, should injury or suspension strike.  Given the clubs eagerness to play him and name him as an emergency on a regular basis, I expect that he will also be given a 3rd year on the rookie list.

Finally I thought I should briefly touch on four other players who could fall into the above category, however I suspect there's next to no chance of them leaving/being delsited/traded.  These players being Jayden Hunt, Billy Stretch, Aaron Vandenberg & Sam Weideman.  Apart from the fact that 3 of these 4 are contracted, I feel as though the club rates all these players far to highly and/or have invested too much for them to consider parting ways with, even if they requested a trade.

Interested to hear if other people agree, or if there's others you feel may be in danger or ones that I listed above who I think will stay, but you think will leave?

Good thread.

I think Kent will ask for a trade. 

Johnstone, King, Fillapovic, Mckenna, Bugg will all be delisted.

Vince will retire.

Pederson could potentially get picked up by either Carlton or GC for depth (handy depth too) if not, then he'll most likely just retire.

Tyson and Frost are both contracted for next year and are in our starting 22 and playing important roles. Cant see them leaving, especially Tyson who i think will definitely stay now with uncertain future of Viney.

Tim Smith, JKH, and Keilty will all be offered 1 year deals. Smith did not start full training till February this year, so I'd like to give him an injury free pre season and have him sitting their for depth. I also feel like Keilty has been so dam close to debut that unfortunately when the opportunity has opened, hes just either had a niggle or missed games.

 

JKH has improved his pressure and defensive side hugely. I honestly still think there's definitely a spot for him on thag half forward wing position. Spargo is starting to tire out.. so I'd move JKH back to a forward pocket and let him harrass and chase all day.

How important has Frosty been since Lever went down then Hibbo, Unless its an incredible offer he is a must keep, he's best 22 when Lever is fit.

Vince, Pedersen happy for them to go around again with the same proviso that they could be playing in the VFL more often than not.

 

Edited August 9, 20186 yr by Win4theAges

4 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Good thread.

I think Kent will ask for a trade. 

Johnstone, King, Fillapovic, Mckenna, Bugg will all be delisted.

Vince will retire.

Pederson could potentially get picked up by either Carlton or GC for depth (handy depth too) if not, then he'll most likely just retire.

Tyson and Frost are both contracted for next year and are in our starting 22 and playing important roles. Cant see them leaving, especially Tyson who i think will definitely stay now with uncertain future of Viney.

Tim Smith, JKH, and Keilty will all be offered 1 year deals. Smith did not start full training till February this year, so I'd like to give him an injury free pre season and have him sitting their for depth. I also feel like Keilty has been so dam close to debut that unfortunately when the opportunity has opened, hes just either had a niggle or missed games.

 

JKH has improved his pressure and defensive side hugely. I honestly still think there's definitely a spot for him on thag half forward wing position. Spargo is starting to tire out.. so I'd move JKH back to a forward pocket and let him harrass and chase all day.

Yeah good topic an I agree with DD's except that we only have to turn over 6 players, and you've put forward 9, remember Balic has already retired (or 8 if we get a player instead of pick for Kent).

Depending if we go for Gaff or another free agent then one or 2 of Johnstone, Flip, McKenna or Bugg might hold on, plus we won't have a great deal of draft picks. It might just come down to the $$$, keeping Bugg, JHK and TSmith will be more expensive than a new draftee or one of those who haven't played seniors yet, it might only be a couple of hundred thousand but that might be needed to help retain Hogan or get Gaff?

For those who say Vince will retire who takes his place.

The place has been available in reality all year but no one at VFL level has gotten within a bull's roar of displacing Vince on their own form.

For that reason he will get another year and I hope by round 6 he is depth at Casey.

Weideman is the conundrum. With Hogan and T Mac is there a regular place for him and if not will he ask to go elsewhere. I suspect he will be content to remain for 2019 but 2020 could be crunch time.

Pederson stays unless we recruit a back up ruckman.

As to all the other candidates they all have positives and negatives and will pose difficult decisions for the list committee. Unfortunately I think Bugg is gone.

We'd be stupid to trade Frost. We'd get a soggy banana for him, and we've seen with injuries just how important backline depth is.

Besides, I think Frost can slot into our best 22, and once Lever is back, the pressure on Frost to take the game on, and inevitably turn the ball over, will dramatically decrease, which will make him a far more reliable player.

7 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

For those who say Vince will retire who takes his place.

The place has been available in reality all year but no one at VFL level has gotten within a bull's roar of displacing Vince on their own form.

For that reason he will get another year and I hope by round 6 he is depth at Casey.

Weideman is the conundrum. With Hogan and T Mac is there a regular place for him and if not will he ask to go elsewhere. I suspect he will be content to remain for 2019 but 2020 could be crunch time.

Pederson stays unless we recruit a back up ruckman.

As to all the other candidates they all have positives and negatives and will pose difficult decisions for the list committee. Unfortunately I think Bugg is gone.

Id like to think by next year Hunt and Wagner will step up and consolidate that spot. 

Sorry but even as depth Vince is finished. Went a year too long. He will retire and i think even he knows that now.

Edited August 9, 20186 yr by dazzledavey36

Hard men you blokes...we go two to three games into finals this year, with what we have got, and there would be four changes at most with Gaff. Even then i would be sitting, subject to rule changes......

6 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Id like to think by next year Hunt and Wagner will step up and consolidate that spot. 

Sorry but even as depth Vince is finished. Went a year too long. He will retire and i think even he knows that now.

Wagner has had all year to take it and has not done so.Hunt is not a defensive back.

Cannot really see either of them in the mix. I am tending to think we may need to trade/recruit at the fringe to find a candidate.

20 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

For those who say Vince will retire who takes his place.

The place has been available in reality all year but no one at VFL level has gotten within a bull's roar of displacing Vince on their own form.

For that reason he will get another year and I hope by round 6 he is depth at Casey.

Weideman is the conundrum. With Hogan and T Mac is there a regular place for him and if not will he ask to go elsewhere. I suspect he will be content to remain for 2019 but 2020 could be crunch time.

Pederson stays unless we recruit a back up ruckman.

As to all the other candidates they all have positives and negatives and will pose difficult decisions for the list committee. Unfortunately I think Bugg is gone.

 

14 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Id like to think by next year Hunt and Wagner will step up and consolidate that spot. 

Sorry but even as depth Vince is finished. Went a year too long. He will retire and i think even he knows that now.

This.  Plus with Lever coming back, we may go with three tall defenders which frees Hibberd up into Vince's role.  I love Vince, but he's on his last legs for mine.

6 minutes ago, willmoy said:

Hard men you blokes...we go two to three games into finals this year, with what we have got, and there would be four changes at most with Gaff. Even then i would be sitting, subject to rule changes......

Potentially.  Or we could loose our next 3 and miss the finals.

The point being, either way that any list changes are likely to come from the players listed....

Frost is being touted (within the players at the club) as the guy to stop Buddy. He's not going anywhere.

Vince has already said he'd be happy playing out his days at Casey, if that is what the club wanted.

The rest I'll leave to the more astute watchers.

1 minute ago, Uncle Fester said:

Frost is being touted (within the players at the club) as the guy to stop Buddy. He's not going anywhere.

Vince has already said he'd be happy playing out his days at Casey, if that is what the club wanted.

The rest I'll leave to the more astute watchers.

I'd also like to think he wont be going.  I think the only way he's leaving is if he went to the club and asked for a trade.  Wont be the other way round.

54 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

For those who say Vince will retire who takes his place.

The place has been available in reality all year but no one at VFL level has gotten within a bull's roar of displacing Vince on their own form.

For that reason he will get another year and I hope by round 6 he is depth at Casey.

Weideman is the conundrum. With Hogan and T Mac is there a regular place for him and if not will he ask to go elsewhere. I suspect he will be content to remain for 2019 but 2020 could be crunch time.

Pederson stays unless we recruit a back up ruckman.

As to all the other candidates they all have positives and negatives and will pose difficult decisions for the list committee. Unfortunately I think Bugg is gone.

Without the injuries to Lever, JSmith, Hibberd and also Hunt, I believe Vince would already be at Casey. I know Hunt has been at Casey but I would have thought he would have fought his way back in by now if he wasn't. I just can't see us carrying Lewis and Vince next year as they both look slow at times. 

Weid has been doing a lot of back up ruck, and for mine is now much better than Pederson at that role, so again I think Ped's days are numbered due to age and speed.

My thoughts:

Vince, Balic (retired)

King, Filipovic, McKenna, Johnstone, (delisted)

Bugg / Kent / JKH - can't see the need for all three to stay, and one may be enough in honesty. Wouldn't be surprised to see Kent look elsewhere. JKH presumably most likely to get another year given current state of affairs.

Pedersen - another one year deal. He provides valuable depth in a number of positions.

Frost / Tyson - both contracted and both stay. I hope we've made it clear to both that they are required players long term.

T.Smith / Weideman - I don't rate either of them, but I expect Smith to get another one year deal. The heat will be on Weideman if he is still at Casey this time next year.

Keilty - happy to see him get another year.

Vandenberg - presumably will get another year, but he's just depth for me.

Maynard - very, very fortunate to have a contract for next year. Otherwise a clear delist.

We should be looking at 1-2 free agents, 4 draft picks and 2-3 rookie selections. I would be happy to play 38 + 6 rookies next year, as opposed to 40 + 4 this year.

Would be very surprised if they only now got McKenna back to fitness and delist him, at worst will be re-rookied I reckon. 

5 minutes ago, watchtheeyes said:

Would be very surprised if they only now got McKenna back to fitness and delist him, at worst will be re-rookied I reckon. 

Is he any good? Pretty hard to tell since he's barely played (for us and GWS)

12 minutes ago, The Lobster Effect said:

Is he any good? Pretty hard to tell since he's barely played (for us and GWS)

We thoughts so when we traded for him, and he hasn't had an opportunity to show us since he got here. So I think he at least gets the opportunity to do that. Perfect rookie candidate for me.

18 minutes ago, watchtheeyes said:

Would be very surprised if they only now got McKenna back to fitness and delist him, at worst will be re-rookied I reckon. 

Agreed.

12 minutes ago, The Lobster Effect said:

Is he any good? Pretty hard to tell since he's barely played (for us and GWS)

That's why I suspect he'll get a 1 year deal.  What we did with Hunt when he missed most of his first 2 years with back issues.

I think JKH's name was associated with Carlton at some time in the past.

He might be the subject of interest to them again at the end of the year.

35 minutes ago, watchtheeyes said:

We thoughts so when we traded for him, and he hasn't had an opportunity to show us since he got here. So I think he at least gets the opportunity to do that. Perfect rookie candidate for me.

Are there still going to be rookies next year (apart from International/Alternative sport category)? I can't see the point anymore. Can't rookies play at any time now without being "promoted"?

2 hours ago, willmoy said:

Hard men you blokes...we go two to three games into finals this year, with what we have got, and there would be four changes at most with Gaff. Even then i would be sitting, subject to rule changes......

A good thread but just a bit premature.

A few blokes could be playing for their careers at Melbourne over the next three games. Completely in their own hands.

IMO a positive really. 

Acid and microscope on over the next few weeks.

If we do ok, no need to move too many deck chairs.

 

 

2 hours ago, willmoy said:

Hard men you blokes...we go two to three games into finals this year, with what we have got, and there would be four changes at most with Gaff. Even then i would be sitting, subject to rule changes......

Interesting take by you.

I actually have at least eight changes to our list for next season and there are plenty of reasons to suggest it should happen.

1) Draft observers keep saying it is one of the best for several seasons. They say that pretty regularly I know, but it certainly isn't one where people are saying it lacks depth at top like last year.

2) If we are to get Gaff, then we will have salary cap issues if we don't bring in some young kids who usually start on the base wages. Removing a few of our highly-paid veterans becomes smart economics.

3) We have three (arguably four players) in the mix to retire - Vince, Pedo, Jordy and Jeffy.

4) We have three players who have been given two years to make it and they are still a long way off from making a debut - Dion, Lochie and Mitch King. There will be no money saved there, but sadly it must be done. In Lochie and Mitch's cases, we already have a project ruckman for next year with Austin Bradtke.

5) We have three other players who are out of contract and may be moved on - Bugg, McKenna and Kent. 

And we have already lost one - Balic.

On top of that for the past 3 years, Tubby Taylor has barely had a chance to draft more than two speculative rookies, so he will be champing at the bit to get a go at doing what he's paid for.

Personally I'd be moving Keilty and Tim Smith on to the main list on one-year deals as back-ups and taking the full quota of rookies with Corey Wagner and Jay Lockhart among them.

As to rule changes, if they happen then the big winners will be Weid and Frosty and both are already contracted and I'd certainly be keeping them.

 

Had Kent have been able to string together about 7 or 8 games with the output he was showing it might have been enough to keep him on as a depth player. Unfortunately and as its so often been the case in his career injuries have stuffed that right up for him.

I'd love to keep him on but I can see him looking for a new club I'm afraid.

I'm still optimistic about Pat McKenna. A good mate of mine was involved with Gisborne FC when he was playing there and he swears by him as a gun talent. I have never seen him play, but my mate is a pretty good judge of football talent so his opinion carries weight with me.

I would be shattered if we don't give him one more year to see what he is made out of.

Edited August 9, 20186 yr by Adzman

3 hours ago, MadAsHell said:

Plus with Lever coming back, we may go with three tall defenders which frees Hibberd up into Vince's role.

This is positive thinking; I'd see Frosty, Lever and last-leg Omac as the three and the release of Hibberd to the role that Vince plays currently (and/or Lewis) is a good move. The youngbloods from Casey can fit into a set framework as they develop and continue to compete for backline roles.