MATCH PREVIEW AND TEAM SELECTION - Round 19

[Nasher 33,607]

8 hours ago, george_on_the_outer said:

I would take a half fit Vanders over some of those mentioned who have been selected this week. 

 

Time has dulled your memory abour how poor a half fit vanders was George. I don’t think you really mean that.

I’m excited at the prospect of a fully fit vanders not being far off though. I hope he’s not the traveling emergency unless they think there’s a 99% chance he will play - building match fitness must be the goal at present. It would be a total waste if he doesn’t play at all this weekend.

[Rogue 585]

10 minutes ago, Nasher said:

I’m excited at the prospect of a fully fit vanders not being far off though. I hope he’s not the traveling emergency unless they think there’s a 99% chance he will play - building match fitness must be the goal at present. It would be a total waste if he doesn’t play at all this weekend.

Casey has a bye, so I'm guessing that if he doesn't play AFL he doesn't play at all.

[Nasher 33,607]

5 minutes ago, Rogue said:

Casey has a bye, so I'm guessing that if he doesn't play AFL he doesn't play at all.

That old chestnut. So annoying.

[samcantstandya 1,031]

10 hours ago, picket fence said:

How Kennedy Harris still gets a game is almost Science Fiction stuff! Seriously??

There is an air of The Twilight Zone about it.

Edited July 26, 2018 by samcantstandya
omitted a key word - air

[Deemania since 56 6,569]

12 hours ago, Wiseblood said:

The one positive in his corner is that he now has three games under his belt and is, from all reports, running out those games really well.  I think if he does get the call up that he can contribute well and not struggle after missing so much time.

He (Vanders) came into the team raw, as far as recruits go. Playing in a mishmash of secondary interstate teams, not the glory box of VFL 'reserves', affiliate junior teams such as Casey, for example.

Virtually unheard of, as a footballer. Hitting the MFC, he began to shake the ground with multiple Stirling performances, intercepts, marks, what appeared to be both cheap and hard-fought goals, tough contests and tackles, some footspeed for one so big and still very mobile.

His recuperation has been lengthy but according to Club reports and a myriad of observers so commenting, he never lost it, he was persistent, he was determined, he did not shirk the issues in one way.

He has recovered now, a highly commendable achievement and testament to his endeavour. We should be bringing that endeavour back to the football field in the AFL team. He is an inspiring bloke with real football smarts and skills. He is more value than at least three or four players (unmentioned) who have been selected with some consistency. Let's get it done, now!

[DEESBEST 4]

13 hours ago, Sargent Shultz said:

I agree with "selection blunders" however, disagree about JKH who is not up to playing in the AFL at the moment- witness the poor turnover kicks (one resulted in a Geelong goal), The Ablett miss tackle (Ablett did not even have the ball) that resulted in a Geelong goal and the missed goal in the last few minutes.

Can't believe we did not bring in Can Pederson for this match. The Crows forward line is very tall with McGovern 190 cm, Walker 193 cm, Lynch 193 cm, Jenkins 200 cm - we will regret not picking Pederson 193 cm, to help Frost, Oscar and Smith. Smith may be OK but is a 8 game player. The Crows forward line is much taller and more experienced. We don't need JKH.

You are thinking too logical.... think like Goodwin and the selectors

 

[loges 6,767]

12 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Why are people saying Hogan might be a late out?

Wasn’t it established that he was ill and ordered to stay home? Then he’d train on Friday and play Saturday night.

MFCSS

[old dee 23,526]

This weeks no change is either inspired coaching that produces an amazing game performance at the home of the Crows with a rousing win or we go in with JKH as a vfl talent and a couple of players with suspect health that produces another downer. 

High stakes gamble is how I see it, however I believe there will be a couple of changes before the game starts on Saturday.

[Gorgoroth 12,750]

13 hours ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Bugg has gone a bit quite down at VFL level.. i reckon he knows his papers are stamped and is just going through the motions.

I know i will be on my own here, but i honestly thought JKH wasn't even that bad last week. Hes physicality has improved alot and was a goal away from being a hero in this website. He shows good defensive pressure and was one who really tried to crack in.

JKH would have felt a bit dejected knowing that probably his name was first on the chopping block, but Goodwin is backing him in and i have a good feeling he might play well this weekend.

My biggest gripe is he kills momentum weekly by dropping simple marks.

Killed us v Tigers last year and he has done the same thes last weeks. He seems to worry about contact more than marking the ball.

until he stops doing that he is a liability.

[Deemania since 56 6,569]

1 hour ago, DEESBEST said:

You are thinking too logical.... think like Goodwin and the selectors

 

It is logical and sensible, and necessary, and once again, overlooked. 

[Demon Dynasty 17,108]

 

                                              Pure Stats Form Guide & Predictor

Team Form Comparison (team score last round adjusted for Ins/Outs)

Demons:  66.77   Crows:  61.67

Team Differential:   Demons +5.10

                                                     Pure Stats Predictor:

Had i included my usual 4 goal umpire bias factor last week this predictor would have been on the money ...Cats by 2 points!  So i'll include both the pure result and with the usual likely 4 goal bias (approx).

                                   Pure Stats (no umpire Bias) - The Demons by 10 points

                                   With Umpire Bias - The Crows by 14 points

Last Round Statistical Comparison

*Includes this weeks Ins & Outs

Top 10 Players Comparison (Last Round)#

# Scores do not account for ruckmen's 'Hit Outs to Advantage'

[SFebes 4,860]

10 points? I can't handle another close one. In fact I don't think I'm allowed to watch another game after last week!

[binman 42,116]

16 hours ago, Nasher said:

Goodwin has shown zero interest in shuffling fringe players around from wins or narrow losses unless there was a very clear case at any stage this year - either injury or a key player returning. He values team consistency. No problem with that here.

I'm not sure i entirely agree with that Nasher. I reckon he has shuffled fringe players quite a bit in the first half of the year. Too often i reckon. Certainly Roos was much more likely to make no changes.

Billy was out after a week, Pederson has been in and out, Wagner similar, Weeds and most recently petty. Bugg too IIRC?

I think it is terrific he is going unchanged. A real show of faith in his team, which is important and i i think perhaps might evidence of Goody developing and improving his coaching.

Edited July 27, 2018 by binman

[Gorgoroth 12,750]

Up again at 3:30am sunday to go to work. Do I watch first half as I have been or just avoid it completely. Not sure I can bring myself to watch the whole game. Need my beauty sleep (read I’m old and struggle with little sleep ?)

[Deemania since 56 6,569]

44 minutes ago, MSFebey said:

10 points? I can't handle another close one. In fact I don't think I'm allowed to watch another game after last week!

Not allowed to watch another game? Severe effects...was that from 'she who must be obeyed', the cardiologist, the psychologist, the shrink, the local health welfare agency, your boss, your best mate, your drinking pals?

I've taken up self-medication for those personal moments watching, reviewing, analysing MFC games - a decent bottle of Johnnie Red or Talisker, some ice, matured cheddar and a dose of multivitamins beforehand. Believe me, it is nearly working a treat! Takes away much of the twitter and blistered from the post-match analyses and the umpiring status quo.

Edited July 27, 2018 by Deemania since 56

[Roost It 1,434]

3 hours ago, Deemania since 56 said:

He (Vanders) came into the team raw, as far as recruits go. Playing in a mishmash of secondary interstate teams, not the glory box of VFL 'reserves', affiliate junior teams such as Casey, for example.

Virtually unheard of, as a footballer. Hitting the MFC, he began to shake the ground with multiple Stirling performances, intercepts, marks, what appeared to be both cheap and hard-fought goals, tough contests and tackles, some footspeed for one so big and still very mobile.

His recuperation has been lengthy but according to Club reports and a myriad of observers so commenting, he never lost it, he was persistent, he was determined, he did not shirk the issues in one way.

He has recovered now, a highly commendable achievement and testament to his endeavour. We should be bringing that endeavour back to the football field in the AFL team. He is an inspiring bloke with real football smarts and skills. He is more value than at least three or four players (unmentioned) who have been selected with some consistency. Let's get it done, now!

Revisionism at it’s finest

[Coq au vin 755]

On 7/25/2018 at 10:24 PM, old dee said:

Sadly there is more money in Essendon playing finals than Melbourne. 

Quite a few Dees supporters will come out of ‘retirement’ to attend. I think we’ll fill up a stadium quite well.

[Clintosaurus 7,639]

1 hour ago, MSFebey said:

10 points? I can't handle another close one. In fact I don't think I'm allowed to watch another game after last week!

I've been banned at least 5 times this year. Still watching.

[Dee Zephyr 19,228]

Do we have a training session in Adelaide today?  We need something, anything from our SA correspondents. 

[old dee 23,526]

28 minutes ago, President Dee Trump said:

Quite a few Dees supporters will come out of ‘retirement’ to attend. I think we’ll fill up a stadium quite well.

No a problem it will be in Perth or Sydney which will be 99% Eagles or 95% giants if we are there all in 2018,

[Demon Dynasty 17,108]

2 hours ago, MSFebey said:

10 points? I can't handle another close one. In fact I don't think I'm allowed to watch another game after last week!

14 the Crow's way if you take the more than likely home crowd umpire bias into account SF.  Last week i just went with what the stats were showing.  A 22 point win.  Silly me.  Adjust for 4 goal bias (my usual adjustment) and it correctly predicted a 2 point loss.  As soon as I saw the skull (Nichols) running around i knew we were likely gonna be toast 

[SFebes 4,860]

5 minutes ago, Rusty Nails said:

14 the Crow's way if you take the more than likely home crowd umpire bias into account SF.  Last week i just went with what the stats were showing.  A 22 point win.  Silly me.  Adjust for 4 goal bias (my usual adjustment) and it correctly predicted a 2 point loss.  As soon as I saw the skull (Nichols) running around i knew we were likely gonna be toast 

no Razor Ray, Pannel or that germ Nicholls at least v Crows.

 

[Demon Dynasty 17,108]

11 minutes ago, MSFebey said:

no Razor Ray, Pannel or that germ Nicholls at least v Crows.

 

Ok well that's a potential upside.  Fingers crossed but I don't trust anyone when they are umpiring in such a one sided cauldron.

I'm gonna stick with the Crows by 14.  If we win, by any margin, it will be a fabulous win by the boys and a bit of a bonus given the circumstances.

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,477]

16 minutes ago, MSFebey said:

no Razor Ray, Pannel or that germ Nicholls at least v Crows.

 

Stevic and Meredith are some of the best in the business I think??

[SFebes 4,860]

30 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Stevic and Meredith are some of the best in the business I think??

I think you're right, Meredith seems to get some good comments, all we ask for fairness.