19 minutes ago, Demonland said:

Free kick differential for the past 15 years. 

Wow, west coast!

35 minutes ago, KLV said:

Wow, west coast!

Half of those free kicks would be the result of weak umpires being intimidated and responding to crowd noise in Perth.   Harry Beitzel and Jack McMurray, great umpires of the past, would not have been sucked in.

I ran those totals into a statistics web page and the standard deviation is about 340.

Only North and Sydney are more than one standard deviation away from the mean. With these numbers, 8.4% and 6.6% likely. In other words, "a bit off" but not outrageous. So you might look at them.

But then Wet Toast are nearly 3 SD away. In this case 0.36% likely. A definite outlier. Even a non footy fan can tell something is up.

Studies have been done to find if umps are affected by crowd noise. Conclusion: they are. In one study, German soccer refs were asked to pick free kicks from TV coverage of matches. First with the sound off, then with the sound on. With the sound on, they gave more frees to the home sides.

9 hours ago, Bobby McKenzie said:

Half of those free kicks would be the result of weak umpires being intimidated and responding to crowd noise in Perth.   Harry Beitzel and Jack McMurray, great umpires of the past, would not have been sucked in.

The problem with this theory is that if it were true you would expect Fremantle to be similarly advantaged and instead they are minus 308.  

36 minutes ago, Mazer Rackham said:

Studies have been done to find if umps are affected by crowd noise. Conclusion: they are. In one study, German soccer refs were asked to pick free kicks from TV coverage of matches. First with the sound off, then with the sound on. With the sound on, they gave more frees to the home sides.

I would imagine the results would be even more skewed being the ref/ump on the spot live with a deafening home crowd.

19 minutes ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

The problem with this theory is that if it were true you would expect Fremantle to be similarly advantaged and instead they are minus 308.  

Perhaps this is because they don't get the same size crowds or because there weren't as competitive for some of those years. Who knows how the minds of maggots work.

7 minutes ago, Demonland said:

Perhaps this is because they don't get the same size crowds or because there weren't as competitive for some of those years. Who knows how the minds of maggots work.

Dr Matthew Cobb

1 minute ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

Dr Matthew Cobb

"They have a mindless existence: you starve them and put them in front of a smell and they move towards it."

Razor Ray had a keen sense of smell on the weekend and the Bulldog players must have stunk.

10 hours ago, Ethan Tremblay said:

Collingwood are enjoying a good run from the umps this year, let’s hope it doesn’t continue Monday. 

This fact will be a big feature of the game because it is a blockbuster. The throng that is better known as 'The Filth' will be given many opportunities to stay in the game, to score inside their 50m and to be compensated for the rough treatment dished out by the vicious, fortress-like Demon defenders.

On a positive note, the Dees will win easily when this umpire charity becomes ridiculously obvious (usually after the first goal to our opposition in the third quarter).  Seen it all before, haven't we?

My limited knowledge of statistics suggests to me that over a period of 15 years the numbers and the surplus/deficit balance each year should converge.

WC and NM are consistently ahead whereas Swans and Dorks are consistently behind. For once, the dees are not the worst although more often behind than ahead.

That they have not converged is a worrying trend and deserves a deeper study by the AFL and the umpires. This is not a simple issue of venues and crowds but a persistent and unrealistic concern for the integrity and fairness of our game.

Could it be that 6 out of the top 7 teams (excluding filth) have the colour blue in their jumpers whereas the bottom 7 do not? Who knows but it needs to be investigated.

where was this table in the op published?

2 minutes ago, tiers said:

My limited knowledge of statistics suggests to me that over a period of 15 years the numbers and the surplus/deficit balance each year should converge.

WC and NM are consistently ahead whereas Swans and Dorks are consistently behind. For once, the dees are not the worst although more often behind than ahead.

That they have not converged is a worrying trend and deserves a deeper study by the AFL and the umpires. This is not a simple issue of venues and crowds but a persistent and unrealistic concern for the integrity and fairness of our game.

Could it be that 6 out of the top 7 teams (excluding filth) have the colour blue in their jumpers whereas the bottom 7 do not? Who knows but it needs to be investigated.

This is a good post. The concept of convergence over time would occur if the awarding of free kicks was fully random. That the convergence hasn't occurred effectively confirms that other matters are at play. That's not to say there is anything nefarious, but you are correct that it deserves a proper assessment to ensure there is no unconscious bias or (in a worst case scenario which I don't believe for one minute has occurred) some form of corrupt practice.

10 hours ago, Bobby McKenzie said:

Half of those free kicks would be the result of weak umpires being intimidated and responding to crowd noise in Perth.   Harry Beitzel and Jack McMurray, great umpires of the past, would not have been sucked in.

Bobby, I suggest this with all due respect, but I think you could probably do with a defrag if you can still recall umpire names from the past century. If you're unsure of what a defrag is, just trundle down to your local milkbar and offer a half-penny to one of those modern spikey haired internet-mongers loitering outside. 

34 minutes ago, daisycutter said:

where was this table in the op published?

I'm not sure what Rounds the 2018 stats include.

37 minutes ago, tiers said:

Could it be that 6 out of the top 7 teams (excluding filth) have the colour blue in their jumpers whereas the bottom 7 do not? Who knows but it needs to be investigated.

Interesting but it has not helped us.

21 minutes ago, Demonland said:

I'm not sure what Rounds the 2018 stats include.

thanks, but q was where not when. i.e. was it published on a media site, afl.com or somewhere else 

p.s. i'm referring to to the table in post #21

Edited June 7, 20187 yr by daisycutter

Last week WCE had 25 frees to Saints 12. 

On AFL 360 Richardson said the 'noise of affirmation' not only encouraged umpires to pay frees to WCE but the opposite also happened ie when an opp player eg StK should receive a free there is no noise at all so umpires son't call it. 

He said when the umpire's department comment during the week it is about the legitimacy of frees paid but apparently the 'non-calls' are not reviewed.  It is this aspect of umpiring that has really deteriorated in recent years.  

I mean the bulldogs won a flag on the basis of being allowed to throw and not pinned for HTB in the prelim vs GWS and the GF vs Syd.  Both the AFL and Bevo admitted such after the GF. 

Edited June 7, 20187 yr by Lucifer's Hero

51 minutes ago, tiers said:

Could it be that 6 out of the top 7 teams (excluding filth) have the colour blue in their jumpers whereas the bottom 7 do not? Who knows but it needs to be investigated.

Good theory - Interesting that the WCE and NM blue is a mid range blue, like the WB who have done very well from the umpires in recent years.  The darker blues, Carlton, Demons, Geelong haven't done so well (except the midfield at Geelong).

Maybe we should wear our 'disco' blue jumper more often - it is a similar shade as the three favoured teams. 

1 hour ago, Demonland said:

"They have a mindless existence: you starve them and put them in front of a smell and they move towards it."

Razor Ray had a keen sense of smell on the weekend and the Bulldog players must have stunk.

They stunk enough for him to make half his decisions 50 meters away.

Of course another factor is the frees that AREN’T paid,which cannot be easily analysed statistically.

If it could, it would show even greater advantage to WCE.  

St K coach, Richardson, calls  it the “ noise of affirmation”, in Perth, where possible frees to WCE    are met with a roar from the crowd, whereas a similar incident with a StK player occurs in a vacuum of silence,so no free is paid. It is similar with deliberateOOB and running too far.

The stats on recent StK/WCE games were quoted,revealing enormous pro WCE bias. I’d be surprised if it wasn’t worse for Melbourne.

4 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Good theory - Interesting that the WCE and NM blue is a mid range blue, like the WB who have done very well from the umpires in recent years.  The darker blues, Carlton, Demons, Geelong haven't done so well (except the midfield at Geelong).

Maybe we should wear our 'disco' blue jumper more often - it is a similar shade as the three favoured teams. 

I like this theory and would like some research done into our free kick differential this year wearing the disco blue jumper vs the traditional kit.

@Supermercado do you have any insight to provide here?

2 hours ago, Mazer Rackham said:

I ran those totals into a statistics web page and the standard deviation is about 340.

Only North and Sydney are more than one standard deviation away from the mean. With these numbers, 8.4% and 6.6% likely. In other words, "a bit off" but not outrageous. So you might look at them.

But then Wet Toast are nearly 3 SD away. In this case 0.36% likely. A definite outlier. Even a non footy fan can tell something is up.

Mazor, droppin some stats on our collectives arses!!

I like it!

Id love to see that table broken down further with free kicks home and away.

 

+900 is disgusting (esp when the wce fans carry on about it being the opposite away from home)

11 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Last week WCE had 25 frees to Saints 12. 

On AFL 360 Richardson said the 'noise of affirmation' not only encouraged umpires to pay frees to WCE but the opposite also happened ie when an opp player eg StK should receive a free there is no noise at all so umpires son't call it. 

He said when the umpire's department comment during the week it is about the legitimacy of frees paid but apparently the 'non-calls' are not reviewed.  It is this aspect of umpiring that has really deteriorated in recent years.  

I mean the bulldogs won a flag on the basis of being allowed to throw and not pinned for HTB in the prelim vs GWS and the GF vs Syd.  Both the AFL and Bevo admitted such after the GF. 

I get more frustrated with the non-calls especially when the opposition are getting frees for the same things that we are not getting them for.