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Ladder predictor

SFebes
SFebes
in Melbourne Demons

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  On 29/06/2018 at 06:17, praha said:

Like Collingwood and North last year?

I believe we have improved from last year.  we beat the teams below us. 

Like when we smashed the crows in Alice by 90

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      On 29/06/2018 at 05:41, praha said:

    I have us peaking at 2nd at the start of one of the rounds, but then dropping to 9th by season's end and losing the last three. That's with a mostly conservative estimate, and few upsets in matches between teams with more than 5 places between them on the ladder.

    Sorry, fam.

    PS. Sorry for the image ?

    Screenshot_20180629-154256.thumb.png.e05c2e812c53d13c97965935615ba7c4.png

    Interesting that you have GWS winning 8 of last 9 games which include games vs Hawks, Eagles, Tigers, Power, Crows, Swans, Demons.  I find it hard to see GWS winning all bar one of those games.  Tbh can't see GWS making the 8. 

    I haven't done the ladder predictor but I would expect Hawks to be in the 8, @ EOHandA games.  Who of the current top 8 will drop out...anybody's guess...hopefully North and not us.

    Edited by Lucifer's Hero

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    I find it hard to ' give' us some games simply on the basis we should ..

    The bogey game for me is Freo in Darwin. I want us to win....i struggle to envision it.

    Ive been ( for me ) quite chipper in other games.

    I have us finishing 9th. That's also a result of some other team's run home and being even stevens about how they might go.

    Ive been relatively conservative on scores. Blowouts here or there may well alter the finish.

    9th....hmmmmm☹️

    ...maybe we are following in Richmond's footsteps !! ?

    Edited by beelzebub

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    Freo in Darwin.. yep ...in Melbourne a regulation win .... in Darwin becomes a 60/40 at best.

    We always knew that taking the NT dollar would probably cost us big at sometime and perhaps it's this year.

     

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      On 29/06/2018 at 07:28, Diamond_Jim said:

    Freo in Darwin.. yep ...in Melbourne a regulation win .... in Darwin becomes a 60/40 at best.

    We always knew that taking the NT dollar would probably cost us big at sometime and perhaps it's this year.

     

    A cost benefit analysis is we lose that game and miss the 8 of Darwin v estimated upside from making finals in membership uplift and gate takings (?) and gate on home game having it in Melb would be good and yes I recognise you could make the argument we should have won r1

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    The Dees will end up with 16-6 win-loss ratio. 3rd to 5 th.

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      On 29/06/2018 at 06:30, beelzebub said:

    I find it hard to ' give' us some games simply on the basis we should ..

    The bogey game for me is Freo in Darwin. I want us to win....i struggle to envision it.

    Ive been ( for me ) quite chipper in other games.

    I have us finishing 9th. That's also a result of some other team's run home and being even stevens about how they might go.

    Ive been relatively conservative on scores. Blowouts here or there may well alter the finish.

    9th....hmmmmm☹️

    ...maybe we are following in Richmond's footsteps !! ?

    I am more worried by the saints than I am Freo.

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      On 29/06/2018 at 07:28, Diamond_Jim said:

    Freo in Darwin.. yep ...in Melbourne a regulation win .... in Darwin becomes a 60/40 at best.

    We always knew that taking the NT dollar would probably cost us big at sometime and perhaps it's this year.

     

    I'm just as concerned about the week after Darwin vs Bulldogs.

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      On 29/06/2018 at 10:28, Deeoldfart said:

    I'm just as concerned about the week after Darwin vs Bulldogs.

    This shows how poxy we were to lose to Geelong . I hope the players fine max the first 26 shouts at end of season p up

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    Well, the Doggies just upset the Cats.

    Everyones ladder prediction just went up in flames.

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      On 29/06/2018 at 12:31, Petraccattack said:

    Well, the Doggies just upset the Cats.

    Everyones ladder prediction just went up in flames.

    Shut down this thread.  Clearly irrelevant.

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      On 29/06/2018 at 07:28, Diamond_Jim said:

    Freo in Darwin.. yep ...in Melbourne a regulation win .... in Darwin becomes a 60/40 at best.

    We always knew that taking the NT dollar would probably cost us big at sometime and perhaps it's this year.

     

    Agree. How much do we “value” the finals

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    These are all redonkuously ridiculous but I have us beating the Eagles in Perth and winning 14 games, while I have it coming down to the last round where Collingwood will play Fremantle in Perth for a spot in the top 4. They lose and we win, snatching a spot in the top 4 on percentage. Now that would be sweet.

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      On 29/06/2018 at 13:11, spirit of norm smith said:

    Agree. How much do we “value” the finals

    not enough

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      On 29/06/2018 at 08:41, dl4e said:

    I am more worried by the saints than I am Freo.

    well.... i'm quietly crossing all fingers and toes... This really OUGHT to be a gimme.. but I take your view and secretly hope it's just a case of severe MFCSS !! lol

    Lose to Saints....just book your september holidays now

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      On 29/06/2018 at 12:31, Petraccattack said:

    Well, the Doggies just upset the Cats.

    Everyones ladder prediction just went up in flames.

    That's the team we will knock out. I have us 8th by %, losing to Sydney, Geelong and West.Coast. GWS game will be massive.

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      On 30/06/2018 at 00:29, beelzebub said:

    well.... i'm quietly crossing all fingers and toes... This really OUGHT to be a gimme.. but I take your view and secretly hope it's just a case of severe MFCSS !! lol

    Lose to Saints....just book your september holidays now

    And look at the weather. Great. I can see us drowning in wet conditions aka Hawthorn.

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      On 30/06/2018 at 02:14, dl4e said:

    And look at the weather. Great. I can see us drowning in wet conditions aka Hawthorn.

    And StKilda love the "sprinklers"

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    Interesting when you just select auto fill for the remaining rounds MFC end up 6th (15 wins) and Collingwood 8th with 14 wins.

    Geelong 9th on 12 wins

    Edited by Diamond_Jim

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      On 30/06/2018 at 10:53, Diamond_Jim said:

    Interesting when you just select auto fill for the remaining rounds MFC end up 6th (15 wins) and Collingwood 8th with 14 wins.

    Geelong 9th on 12 wins

    Run it 20 times

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      On 30/06/2018 at 10:53, Diamond_Jim said:

    Interesting when you just select auto fill for the remaining rounds MFC end up 6th (15 wins) and Collingwood 8th with 14 wins.

    Geelong 9th on 12 wins

     

      On 30/06/2018 at 11:32, timbo said:

    Run it 20 times

    I highly doubt there is much brains to that auto-fill, guys... I wouldn't worry about that.

     

    And if we go 5 and 4 from here - we aren't the team we thought we were so who gives a rip if we do or don't make finals...

    We should win the next 3 and go to Mordor the next week a bit bullish. Adel over there doesn't scare me, GC we should destroy, Syd at the G will be the biggest win since '06 and we have a chance, WCE over there will be tough but we should be looking to beat GWS on our deck in the last round.

    We should at least go 6 and 3 IF we are who we think we are...

    PS. It is pure MFCSS to have us dropping gimmie games but every other club in the league not...

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      On 30/06/2018 at 12:57, rpfc said:

     

    I highly doubt there is much brains to that auto-fill, guys... I wouldn't worry about that.

     

    And if we go 5 and 4 from here - we aren't the team we thought we were so who gives a rip if we do or don't make finals...

    We should win the next 3 and go to Mordor the next week a bit bullish. Adel over there doesn't scare me, GC we should destroy, Syd at the G will be the biggest win since '06 and we have a chance, WCE over there will be tough but we should be looking to beat GWS on our deck in the last round.

    We should at least go 6 and 3 IF we are who we think we are...

    PS. It is pure MFCSS to have us dropping gimmie games but every other club in the league not...

    A bit of a non sequitur but we're no better or worse than Collingwood who currently sit second. If you look at who they've beaten (beside from a Melbourne team who didn't turn up), they've beaten Bulldogs, Freo, St Kilda, Gold Coast and Carlton (who they limped over the line against). These are all bottom 6-8 teams. Yet, the hype surrounding Collingwood is probably larger than the hype that surrounded us going into the QB game.

    I guess my point is that there are really only 2 stand out teams this year (Richmond and Sydney) and even these teams have dropped games they shouldn't have. Anyone is beatable and as you say, we should play finals from here.

    Edited by A F

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    The Dogs’ win is great for us, but ultimately it all comes down to our own performances.

    If we don’t win all of the next three we are in big trouble. 

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      On 30/06/2018 at 14:42, titan_uranus said:

    The Dogs’ win is great for us, but ultimately it all comes down to our own performances.

    If we don’t win all of the next three we are in big trouble. 

    I agree if we drop any of the next 3, it'll make the run for finals difficult and nail-bating. But I reckon we won't be the only team in the top 12 sides to drop a game or two that we are expected to win.

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    Well, on current form, I only have us winning two more games as defintes, even though there is no such thing. Rolling ladder below

     

    image.thumb.png.58d2113d36538d248fc7ab531af109b5.png

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