The Health of the AFL Competition

[FGS_Lurker 9]

Long time reader, first time poster.

I thought some of you might appreciate this in-depth analysis of the overall health of the AFL competition, why 2017 felt like a pretty good season overall, and why the 6 prior seasons were actually rather poor (notwithstanding individual team performances).

Here's hoping 2018 is just as good (and the Dees make the top 6 at least). Footy!

[Diamond_Jim 12,594]

Welcome to the Board FGS

Great analysis.

Would love to have seen the study move beyond attendance to include TV coverage

[jnrmac 20,104]

Wow. Comprehensive study. Well done. Only skimmed it - not doing it justice as it needs a proper read!

 

[Demonland 72,230]

5 hours ago, FGS_Lurker said:

Long time reader, first time poster.

I thought some of you might appreciate this in-depth analysis of the overall health of the AFL competition, why 2017 felt like a pretty good season overall, and why the 6 prior seasons were actually rather poor (notwithstanding individual team performances).

Here's hoping 2018 is just as good (and the Dees make the top 6 at least). Footy!

Welcome to Demonland. Wow. Great first post.

[DaveyDee 421]

6 hours ago, FGS_Lurker said:

Long time reader, first time poster.

I thought some of you might appreciate this in-depth analysis of the overall health of the AFL competition, why 2017 felt like a pretty good season overall, and why the 6 prior seasons were actually rather poor (notwithstanding individual team performances).

Here's hoping 2018 is just as good (and the Dees make the top 6 at least). Footy!

"Remarkably, there is only one team whose attendance has grown every year in the last 10 years, and that is Richmond. The supporters were onto something."

With all due respect it may have been more than their "supporters" that were onto something. 

"For this discussion however, what's more important is that the mean and median margins came down in 2017, having reached an all time peak in 2012" 

Think its fair to say the draft is not an equalisation tool - we now know the road to equalisation is thru equalising financial spends inside Football Departments. Give under funded clubs good draft picks is meaningless, you need to spend money in player development and player welfare - then you can pick up players at any stage of a draft. 

Other tools that work to improve equalisation FA and trading players & picks to meet your clubs individuals needs. 

The draft circa 2018 is nothing more than a tool to extent the reach of the AFL season almost exactly the same reason we invented fantasy football to build the hype pre-season. I welcome the AFL's efforts to trade picks and players on draft night and there is then a possibility we can finally call the draft an equalisation tool. 

Edited March 19, 2018 by DaveyDee

[DaveyDee 421]

7 hours ago, FGS_Lurker said:

Long time reader, first time poster.

I thought some of you might appreciate this in-depth analysis of the overall health of the AFL competition, why 2017 felt like a pretty good season overall, and why the 6 prior seasons were actually rather poor (notwithstanding individual team performances).

Here's hoping 2018 is just as good (and the Dees make the top 6 at least). Footy!

I should clarify my above point for you - 

"Remarkably, there is only one team whose attendance has grown every year in the last 10 years, and that is Richmond. The supporters were onto something."

With all due respect it may have been more than their "supporters" that were onto something. 

Many years ago at Tigerland we understood while some communities where full of criticism, complaining, moaning etc Topics included drafting, past players, the AFL, coaches, the media, fixtures, songs, clash gear etc 

Alternatively, We were discussing ways we can make money to grow our football department grow our attendances, grow our memberships ( membership numbers by themselves are meaningless - its bottomline profit you derive out your membership base that has some meaning.) 

Attendances & memberships are important cog to the success of any football club  - but you need your supporters to have a positive mind set long before you can ever possibly attempt to deliver the ultimate goal - an AFL premiership. Premierships are not luck - if you think they are all you are demonstrating is the media is your major source of information. 

Thank-fully we have a very bright future in a very difficult environment - thankfully AFL has assisted us beyond belief and some of us will be forever grateful - thank-you AD thank-you AFL. 

Go Dees 

Edited March 19, 2018 by DaveyDee

[Sir Why You Little 37,049]

33 minutes ago, DaveyDee said:

I should clarify my above point for you - 

"Remarkably, there is only one team whose attendance has grown every year in the last 10 years, and that is Richmond. The supporters were onto something."

With all due respect it may have been more than their "supporters" that were onto something. 

Many years ago at Tigerland we understood while some communities where full of criticism, complaining, moaning etc Topics included drafting, past players, the AFL, coaches, the media, fixtures, songs, clash gear etc 

Alternatively, We were discussing ways we can make money to grow our football department grow our attendances, grow our memberships ( membership numbers by themselves are meaningless - its bottomline profit you derive out your membership base that has some meaning.) 

Attendances & memberships are important cog to the success of any football club  - but you need your supporters to have a positive mind set long before you can ever possibly attempt to deliver the ultimate goal - an AFL premiership. Premierships are not luck - if you think they are all you are demonstrating is the media is your major source of information. 

Thank-fully we have a very bright future in a very difficult environment - thankfully AFL has assisted us beyond belief and some of us will be forever grateful - thank-you AD thank-you AFL. 

Go Dees 

Such a good little Tiger Supporter you are Dr. 

Such a good little AFL boy...

[DaveyDee 421]

4 hours ago, Sir Why You Little said:

Such a good little Tiger Supporter you are Dr. 

Such a good little AFL boy...

Dear SWYL

Its ok we talk about the trivial stuff at Tigerland like - I'm always happy to learn from successful positive people

- How to grow our crowds - How to sell more memberships - How to increase your income streams.

Sorry, we are not interested in politics, religion, etc, etc. 

Mate we leave the important stuff to you like 

- How to pick a fight with the AFL - How to hate poker machines - How to continually pay-out on past and present players - What our clash jumper and song should look or sound like. 

Mate we recognise there is nothing you are not an expert about. 

GO Dees

PS Never forget the 1st time I saw Clayton Oliver at a Tigers Reserve game at Punt Oval of all places - I had to listen for hours how they were going to pick him up late in the 1st round of a draft. I just smiled - JT understands also he can learn from the Tigers. 

Go Dees

[Sir Why You Little 37,049]

38 minutes ago, DaveyDee said:

Dear SWYL

Its ok we talk about the trivial stuff at Tigerland like - I'm always happy to learn from successful positive people

- How to grow our crowds - How to sell more memberships - How to increase your income streams.

Sorry, we are not interested in politics, religion, etc, etc. 

Mate we leave the important stuff to you like 

- How to pick a fight with the AFL - How to hate poker machines - How to continually pay-out on past and present players - What our clash jumper and song should look or sound like. 

Mate we recognise there is nothing you are not an expert about. 

GO Dees

PS Never forget the 1st time I saw Clayton Oliver at a Tigers Reserve game at Punt Oval of all places - I had to listen for hours how they were going to pick him up late in the 1st round of a draft. I just smiled - JT understands also he can learn from the Tigers. 

Go Dees

What are you talking about?

over the edge today Dr. 

Please don’t call me mate, ok

 

 

Edited March 19, 2018 by Sir Why You Little

[daisycutter 29,617]

1 minute ago, Sir Why You Little said:

What are you talking about?

over the edge today Dr. 

Please don’t call me mate, ok

 

 

i warned you not to ftt

[Sir Why You Little 37,049]

Just now, daisycutter said:

i warned you not to ftt

The Dr is going over the edge i think. 

At least he has now admitted his allegience to Punt Road

i knew that was lurking

[FGS_Lurker 9]

Thanks for the feedback.

Re: TV Ratings. Yeah, this is arguably the number one KPI for the AFL. Unfortunately, this data is not publicly available. Do you know anyone that works at a media agency that could get it?

My guess would be that the trend in TV ratings probably follows the trends in match attendance. Hard to see why it wouldn't. At any given point in time there are always "fringe" viewers that drop out, just like there are fair-weather match-goers.

Would they care if average ratings dropped? A bit but they are prob just happy having a large total audience to sell to advertisers, and expanding to an 18 team comp means they can fill a whole weekend back-to-back with footy. It doesn't suit them to have 4 or 5 games on a Saturday afternoon as the TV audience is cannibalised. 

Re: The draft and equalization. Yes, there are certainly other factors like investment in facilities that drive a turn-around from the "bottom-end" of a cycle but I'd rank it third after player talent and on and off-field team management/culture. For facilities, to make the critical difference, we'd have to believe that one team's list is only really 10% better or worse than another, and that facilities is what gives a team that extra edge. But I reckon the differences are still much greater than that, especially when GWS and Gold Coast had priority access to talent. 

But then again, Gold Coast and GWS make for an interesting experiment. Both got similar access to talent but perhaps each of them and worse/better facilities? Or does the difference relate to culture and team cohesiveness? Ablett/Hunt /Campbell Brown vs Sheedy/Folau/Callum Ward.

Re: Richmond. The comment about their supporters was a bit tongue-in-cheek. Hard to believe that a supporter base would intrinsically know any better about the future success of their club than any other fan base but there is definitely something the club must have done to keep the flame alive in supporters minds. Did they have a killer marketing/CRM system? Prob having Richo and Molloy in the media helped. Not sure what else?

Begs the question of how well MFC actively handled the supporter base over our period of poor performance. You'd probably say it was OK, not outstanding or anything. The trend in match attendance for MFC was reasonable despite some horrid seasons and despicable football (Figure 3 in my analysis).  That many supporters are rusted on to the MCC year-in year-out helps with attendance (tho this does not necessarily help memberships). Today, we are in a much better position than North and St. Kilda I think in regards to the supporter base. And with North "bottoming out", I wouldn't be surprised if things get a bit dire down at Arden St in the next couple of years,

 

 

 

 

 

 

[DaveyDee 421]

31 minutes ago, FGS_Lurker said:

Thanks for the feedback.

Re: TV Ratings. Yeah, this is arguably the number one KPI for the AFL. Unfortunately, this data is not publicly available. Do you know anyone that works at a media agency that could get it?

My guess would be that the trend in TV ratings probably follows the trends in match attendance. Hard to see why it wouldn't. At any given point in time there are always "fringe" viewers that drop out, just like there are fair-weather match-goers.

Would they care if average ratings dropped? A bit but they are prob just happy having a large total audience to sell to advertisers, and expanding to an 18 team comp means they can fill a whole weekend back-to-back with footy. It doesn't suit them to have 4 or 5 games on a Saturday afternoon as the TV audience is cannibalised. 

Re: The draft and equalization. Yes, there are certainly other factors like investment in facilities that drive a turn-around from the "bottom-end" of a cycle but I'd rank it third after player talent and on and off-field team management/culture. For facilities, to make the critical difference, we'd have to believe that one team's list is only really 10% better or worse than another, and that facilities is what gives a team that extra edge. But I reckon the differences are still much greater than that, especially when GWS and Gold Coast had priority access to talent. 

But then again, Gold Coast and GWS make for an interesting experiment. Both got similar access to talent but perhaps each of them and worse/better facilities? Or does the difference relate to culture and team cohesiveness? Ablett/Hunt /Campbell Brown vs Sheedy/Folau/Callum Ward.

Re: Richmond. The comment about their supporters was a bit tongue-in-cheek. Hard to believe that a supporter base would intrinsically know any better about the future success of their club than any other fan base but there is definitely something the club must have done to keep the flame alive in supporters minds. Did they have a killer marketing/CRM system? Prob having Richo and Molloy in the media helped. Not sure what else?

Begs the question of how well MFC actively handled the supporter base over our period of poor performance. You'd probably say it was OK, not outstanding or anything. The trend in match attendance for MFC was reasonable despite some horrid seasons and despicable football (Figure 3 in my analysis).  That many supporters are rusted on to the MCC year-in year-out helps with attendance (tho this does not necessarily help memberships). Today, we are in a much better position than North and St. Kilda I think in regards to the supporter base. And with North "bottoming out", I wouldn't be surprised if things get a bit dire down at Arden St in the next couple of years,

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thank-you for your efforts . You have put bucket loads of work into this study - might be something worth sharing with the club. But maybe they might see it anyway. 

Re your question "Did they have a killer marketing/CRM system?" I cant say too much around here I get mistaken for a Tigers supporters - I only go to there functions for business reasons, and they way they do things is quite different. Think what I like is they really tier the speakers to suit each group. But then again I really enjoyed the MFC luncheon - each to their own. Below is a link to my comments on our Luncheon held at the Crown Casino earlier last year. 

Thanks Again I enjoyed reading all your information.

Edited March 20, 2018 by DaveyDee

[640MD 3,383]

On 3/19/2018 at 5:00 AM, FGS_Lurker said:

Long time reader, first time poster.

I thought some of you might appreciate this in-depth analysis of the overall health of the AFL competition, why 2017 felt like a pretty good season overall, and why the 6 prior seasons were actually rather poor (notwithstanding individual team performances).

Here's hoping 2018 is just as good (and the Dees make the top 6 at least). Footy!

Impressive,    WORK must have suffered !!