4 hours ago, dl4e said:

This thread is seriously delusional. I do however hope most of you are right about us making the finals but I don't believe we will. It is a pity coz when we play decent footy we are a top 4 side.

There are serious mental problems at Melbourne and until we can start shutting the door on them we will never be consistent.

Wow I wonder whether the 'MFC' mental issues are about the self survival of supporters. We are playing a serious brand of football. Our KPI's are amongst the best without our 1st choice ruckman & backup. Without our full fwd & backup.

Aside from GWS who else is hanging in there with injuries to first choice players? We are not been blown away like in past years. Frost, Hibberd, Hannah, Oliver amongst others having breakout years. Our percentage is the 5th best in the comp!

If your going to bed in appreciation/gratitude mode your enjoying our ride. Otherwise it's fear based journey which leads to ........

Looking forward to with excitement of what the future holds. Go Dees!!

I did the ladder predictor twice. 9th both times. We need one more win... every week when I do it again I give us a win against sides that had a bad week that week, but then realise we might drop one against a bad side further down the track. For example, West Coast without Kennedy lost to Gold Coast who we smashed. If he's not playing, we're a really good shot... we should have won over there late in the year last year. So chalk one up against West Coast... but then the Saints might kill us at the G where we haven't looked good at all this year.

My heart tells me that the players doing all the heavy lifting are just super young. Trac, Olly and others are still under 50 games. I think we'll tire.

That said, I think we beat the Pies Monday week... and then if we can pull out a win against the ruckman-less Dogs then I'll get back on board, as we'd only need to go .500 after that.

11 hours ago, A F said:

My old man keeps banging on about the Hawks and Freo games and how they will probably cost us finals. 

I still think we'll get there, because I can't see any teams really finding any sort of consistency that puts them ahead of the rest. 

With Gawn and Hogan back, if we can maintain our best 22 from Round 13 onwards, we'll win 7-8 remaining games.

 

I agree with your dad.  I also had a look at the rest of the season, and I think a solid case can be mounted for only winning three more games based on the way we've handled ourselves for the first half.  There are a stack of games we should win, but the kids just seem to switch off when they go in as favorites.  They need to get past that and not assume they are going to win against the sides we should be beating before we'll actually get up and beat them consistently.  Unless they get their [censored] together and play properly week in week out we're going to fall well short. 

32 minutes ago, Dappa Dan said:

I did the ladder predictor twice. 9th both times. We need one more win... every week when I do it again I give us a win against sides that had a bad week that week, but then realise we might drop one against a bad side further down the track. For example, West Coast without Kennedy lost to Gold Coast who we smashed. If he's not playing, we're a really good shot... we should have won over there late in the year last year. So chalk one up against West Coast... but then the Saints might kill us at the G where we haven't looked good at all this year.

My heart tells me that the players doing all the heavy lifting are just super young. Trac, Olly and others are still under 50 games. I think we'll tire.

That said, I think we beat the Pies Monday week... and then if we can pull out a win against the ruckman-less Dogs then I'll get back on board, as we'd only need to go .500 after that.

I think the loses at the G have been without a ruck. It's a ground that needs big men and you get found out without one. 

24 minutes ago, RalphiusMaximus said:

 

I agree with your dad.  I also had a look at the rest of the season, and I think a solid case can be mounted for only winning three more games based on the way we've handled ourselves for the first half.  There are a stack of games we should win, but the kids just seem to switch off when they go in as favorites.  They need to get past that and not assume they are going to win against the sides we should be beating before we'll actually get up and beat them consistently.  Unless they get their [censored] together and play properly week in week out we're going to fall well short. 

We've barely had Gawn or Hogan all season. I don't think it'd be a particularly solid case.

48 minutes ago, bandicoot said:

I think the loses at the G have been without a ruck. It's a ground that needs big men and you get found out without one. 

Good point. There's no doubt Gawn OR Spencer make us better... And we've missed Hogan terribly the entire time he's been out... So I add the positivity of those two coming back against how I think we'll tire. In other words, it's a wash. We'll end up 11-11 every way I look at it.

We had that amazing month, WC, Port, Hawks, GC... then completely fell off. We'd need a second wind of those proportions... Also, a lot is reliant on the idea that Spencer and Gawn come in and are fine. I reckon the big reason Gawn exploded two years ago was his incredible engine and work ethic. Will he be in tip top shape? The same is true of Spencer. Hogan is super fit, but where will his head be at? I don't think it's simple that we add two names and all's well.

Had we managed to get over the line in just one of our close losses we'd be sitting 6th (4th before this weekend). And weve done it without a ruckman for the most part and without a key forward for half the games. 

Had that been the case I think posters predictions would be far more optimistic.

6 hours ago, RalphiusMaximus said:

 

I agree with your dad.  I also had a look at the rest of the season, and I think a solid case can be mounted for only winning three more games based on the way we've handled ourselves for the first half.  There are a stack of games we should win, but the kids just seem to switch off when they go in as favorites.  They need to get past that and not assume they are going to win against the sides we should be beating before we'll actually get up and beat them consistently.  Unless they get their [censored] together and play properly week in week out we're going to fall well short. 

This irks me....but only because it resonates.

The rest of the season is like a massive game of 'blink' 

Not so much about any team(s) powering away, though they may , as it is about who may stumble.

To an impartial observer the road to September would be fascinating.

To us 

We have the fifth best percentage, we've won the 4th most quarters, and our biggest loss is by 29 points.

I think our "inconsistency" is overplayed.  

No doubt a quarter here and there has cost us, but not having your two most important players will do that.

The absence of anyone is no excuse to go awol in first qtrs. ( Theyre ones we lose 'often' )

Talk about consistent !

Thats not even all down to players either 

8 hours ago, RalphiusMaximus said:

 

I agree with your dad.  I also had a look at the rest of the season, and I think a solid case can be mounted for only winning three more games based on the way we've handled ourselves for the first half.  There are a stack of games we should win, but the kids just seem to switch off when they go in as favorites.  They need to get past that and not assume they are going to win against the sides we should be beating before we'll actually get up and beat them consistently.  Unless they get their [censored] together and play properly week in week out we're going to fall well short. 

As I was  saying. That is part of the mental issues. It can be overcome.

9 hours ago, beelzebub said:

The absence of anyone is no excuse to go awol in first qtrs. ( Theyre ones we lose 'often' )

Talk about consistent !

Thats not even all down to players either 

It is if it takes us a quarter or so to work out the opposition midfield due to having no ruckman and the opposition defense due to having no key forward

Edited June 5, 20178 yr by Dr. Gonzo

I did the ladder predictor and had us winning every game and we win the grand finale. 

3 minutes ago, Ethan Tremblay said:

I did the ladder predictor and had us winning every game and we win the grand finale. 

So Zach, what you're saying is...

On 6/4/2017 at 2:38 PM, A F said:

My old man keeps banging on about the Hawks and Freo games and how they will probably cost us finals. 

Is your old man SWYL?  Sounds like something he would bang on about non-stop to his kids.

40 minutes ago, Danelska said:

So Zach, what you're saying is...

Tough one for tipsters. Don't think we'll make the finals without a run of wins, 3 in a row would help.

56 minutes ago, Ethan Tremblay said:

Are you really that tall or just standing on your soapbox?

1 hour ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

It is if it takes us a quarter or so to work out the opposition midfield due to having no ruckman and the opposition defense due to having no key forward

Thought we had a brains trust including a wiz bang opposition expert. 

We should be going in with a suitable strategy from the first bounce.

1 hour ago, Ethan Tremblay said:

Where's Max's left hand Ethan?

25 minutes ago, beelzebub said:

Thought we had a brains trust including a wiz bang opposition expert. 

We should be going in with a suitable strategy from the first bounce.

Yeah and the opposition also have their own brains trust and wiz bang opposition experts and go in with suitable strategies. Thing is these are easier to pull off when you have a ruckman and a key position forward.

Edited June 5, 20178 yr by Dr. Gonzo

On 6/4/2017 at 2:27 AM, bandicoot said:

My calculations have the Dees needing to win 7 from the last 12 games and a similar % to clinch a spot in the finals.

We were in the same situation last year but could only manage 5 wins. 

Our second half this season should be better assuming we front up with a ruckman.

im penciling in:

Pies, sydney (h), Carlton, nrth (tas), saints, lions, pies. 

Eagles also looking shaky without Kennedy.

I'll be counting down game by game for our first appearance in a decade. 

Beating Norf in Tas is a big ask. I think we will be luck to beat pies on monday, 11 wins and percentage may be enough.

On 4 June 2017 at 2:38 PM, A F said:

My old man keeps banging on about the Hawks and Freo games and how they will probably cost us finals. 

I still think we'll get there, because I can't see any teams really finding any sort of consistency that puts them ahead of the rest. 

With Gawn and Hogan back, if we can maintain our best 22 from Round 13 onwards, we'll win 7-8 remaining games.

You need to start listening to your old man. He is absolutely correct.

Those two losses irk the hell out of me.

 

41 minutes ago, Ron Burgundy said:

You need to start listening to your old man. He is absolutely correct.

Those two losses irk the hell out of me.

 

My old man is very 50/50 on these things.

But yes, those losses irked me too, but I don't think there'll stop us, as they occurred during -Max. If those sort of losses continue to occur when we're +Max, we won't make it. We'll win at least 3 in a row again this year at some stage.

1 hour ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Yeah and the opposition also have their own brains trust and wiz bang opposition experts and go in with suitable strategies. Thing is these are easier to pull off when you have a ruckman and a key position forward.

Easier yes.. but we , knowingly , for mine, do this wrong. 

We should be setting up better. Doesn't take 30 mins to adjust ffs.