Welcome to Demonland: Jake Lever

[Goodvibes 3,596]

1 hour ago, stevethemanjordan said:

 But what is the obsession with keeping Frost?

Maybe you've out done yourself? Maybe your relentless campaign has us all scared. Maybe Oscar can't play footy. Maybe we need to keep Frost.

[binman 42,975]

1 hour ago, Garbo said:

That and none of them are a gorilla to make up for it, unless we are just conceding the opps FF will kick his 4-5 every time.

There are fewer and fewer gorilla keepers and direct man on man defensive match ups as such. Someone like Dunn is becoming increasingly rare. Sure sometimes a Tmac might match up directly against a big but generally you try and stop the talls with your system.

To a large extent it is about the oppositions total score not how many the key forward kicks (though obviously they have a relationship).

Teams would factor in the players you mention are likely to kick 2 or 3 goals a game and if you limit them to that that's pretty good. And sometimes even 4 or 5 is ok depending on how well you shut down other players.

If the lions had kept Jessie to 4  goals they would have almost won. Brown's 4 goals against us (three of which coming from marks from mismatches) in our last roos game wasn't the issue. We kept them to a beatable score. The dees only kicking two goals in the second half was the issue.

Here is the top 5 in this years coleman. All are averaging 2-3 golas a game, with the exception of Kennedy who is averaging four.  

• Joshua Kennedy   64    (from only 16 games!)
• Joe Daniher  Essendon   60    
• Lance Franklin    Sydney   59    
• Ben Brown    North Melbourne   56        
• Taylor Walker    Adelaide      49    

Edited August 24, 2017 by binman

[jnrmac 20,086]

40 minutes ago, binman said:

There are fewer and fewer gorilla keepers and direct man on man defensive match ups as such. Someone like Dunn is becoming increasingly rare. Sure sometimes a Tmac might match up directly against a big but generally you try and stop the talls with your system.

To a large extent it is about the oppositions total score not how many the key forward kicks (though obviously they have a relationship).

Teams would factor in the players you mention are likely to kick 2 or 3 goals a game and if you limit them to that that's pretty good. And sometimes even 4 or 5 is ok depending on how well you shut down other players.

If the lions had kept Jessie to 4  goals they would have almost won. Brown's 4 goals against us (three of which coming from marks from mismatches) in our last roos game wasn't the issue. We kept them to a beatable score. The dees only kicking two goals in the second half was the issue.

Here is the top 5 in this years coleman. All are averaging 2-3 golas a game, with the exception of Kennedy who is averaging four.  

• Joshua Kennedy   64    (from only 16 games!)
• Joe Daniher  Essendon   60    
• Lance Franklin    Sydney   59    
• Ben Brown    North Melbourne   56        
• Taylor Walker    Adelaide      49    

I thought you had jumped off this hobby horse?

[binman 42,975]

3 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

I thought you had jumped off this hobby horse?

What hobby horse? Stating facts?

[stevethemanjordan 6,952]

16 hours ago, Wiseblood said:

Hardly.

One more year as coverage is not going to hurt us in the slightest.  I'd rather him there than have to potentially put faith in an unknown draftee.  

I would bet safely that a list manager would say the complete opposite.

A questionable best 22 veteran coming off an ACL injury for the last year of his contract VS a full year of development for a kid.

I'd say it's a fairly obvious decision from a 'what's best for the club' perspective.

Unless of course they put Garland onto the rookie list.

[Dee-licious 1,951]

Couple of things here. 

1. On the Mac Block thing - OMac dropped much further down the draft than anyone expected. Tom (and Oscar) thought that he wasnt going to come to the Dees once we used 40 on ANB as everyone was surprised Oscar fell so low. So Tom didnt say you have to draft Oscar or else and he isnt here because Oscar still is. They are independent men. 

2. Frost is great, I like him, but Lever is an upgrade. OMac and TMac have been the 1 on 1 guys and OMac is the guy down there who understands the backline spacing. Frost has been the 2nd or 3rd tall for the last couple of years and that is his role. That is also Lever's role as well, and he is much better at it (sorry Sam). 

3. We rated Lever 5th in the draft. (Heeney, Petracca, Brayshaw, McCartin, Lever). Lever was interviewing with us a lot coming up to the draft and he was the only other one in the conversation for picks 2 and 3. At one stage he thought that he'd end up at the Dees over McCartin.

 

We know the injury dropped him a long way down the draft board and if you think about it right now, this kid was number 5 on our board. 2 years ago we had pick 4 for Clarry. Hypothetically, if Carlton came up and said for pick 4 you can have our pick 12 and our third key defender (Liam Jones?) we wouldnt have taken it. If the Crows are willing to hand over Lever for a first rounder and Frost, as much as I'd hate to loose Frost, I'd be asking where I could sign. 

[JTR 2,846]

I really like Frost, but my main concern with losing him is that it would give us less flexibility to allow TMac to float and/or play forward, especially when the backs start getting injured.

'Decent' KPP's, of which I think it is fair to say Frost certainly is, don't grow on trees.

Would much rather cough up a player type that is absolutely surplus to our requirements and can be covered even in the event of multiple injuries.

Guys like Spencil for example.

That said, I am fully aware that we 'gotta give something to get something'....  just wish it wasn't Frost! 

[beelzebub 23,377]

Dee-licious i was accused elsewhere of dabbling in sense; you however just served up a meal of it.

As always it's about list improvement and the means and wherewithal to do so. That we've had a sort of history with Lever is very relevant. If he turns around to the Crows and says he's on the bus (sts) to Aami park ..get it done..then we only need to requate with something acceptable, not necessarily what Adelaide might really want. That seems to be the go these days.

[old55 23,590]

5 hours ago, Fat Tony said:

I understand your argument against playing all three, but I feel that it is not cut and dry.

It's not really my argument, it's my observation of FD action and deduction about FD thinking.

[Ted Lasso 19,518]

1 hour ago, Dee-licious said:

Couple of things here. 

1. On the Mac Block thing - OMac dropped much further down the draft than anyone expected. Tom (and Oscar) thought that he wasnt going to come to the Dees once we used 40 on ANB as everyone was surprised Oscar fell so low. So Tom didnt say you have to draft Oscar or else and he isnt here because Oscar still is. They are independent men. 

2. Frost is great, I like him, but Lever is an upgrade. OMac and TMac have been the 1 on 1 guys and OMac is the guy down there who understands the backline spacing. Frost has been the 2nd or 3rd tall for the last couple of years and that is his role. That is also Lever's role as well, and he is much better at it (sorry Sam). 

3. We rated Lever 5th in the draft. (Heeney, Petracca, Brayshaw, McCartin, Lever). Lever was interviewing with us a lot coming up to the draft and he was the only other one in the conversation for picks 2 and 3. At one stage he thought that he'd end up at the Dees over McCartin.

 

We know the injury dropped him a long way down the draft board and if you think about it right now, this kid was number 5 on our board. 2 years ago we had pick 4 for Clarry. Hypothetically, if Carlton came up and said for pick 4 you can have our pick 12 and our third key defender (Liam Jones?) we wouldnt have taken it. If the Crows are willing to hand over Lever for a first rounder and Frost, as much as I'd hate to loose Frost, I'd be asking where I could sign. 

And the other thing to add to this is lever is an established star, and that's a lot better than your standard pick 4 which is a gamble and might land you jimmy Toumpas. 

Our first pick and frost would have to be the starting point. 

Perhaps their 2017 second rounder for our 2018 first rounder as an upgrade?

[Fat Tony 5,231]

1 minute ago, Fifty-5 said:

It's not really my argument, it's my observation of FD action and deduction about FD thinking.

It seems that way, but it could also be happenstance. Frost was injured early in the year. Then OMac went out of form and Gawn and Spencer got injured and Hogan ill, meaning that TMac had to ruck. Then Frost's form deteriorated in the difficult conditions.

The other point you have raised is how OMac, TMac, Lever an Hibberd fit together. Hibberd is essentially playing the same role as Lever and arguably is better.

Personally, I think we need a quality outside midfielder more so, but I get the attraction for Lever given his age and ability.

[Lucifers Hero 39,818]

7 minutes ago, Abe said:

And the other thing to add to this is lever is an established star, and that's a lot better than your standard pick 4 which is a gamble and might land you jimmy Toumpas. 

Our first pick and frost would have to be the starting point. 

Perhaps their 2017 second rounder for our 2018 first rounder as an upgrade?

In a recent podcast Jason Taylor didn't sound enamoured with this years draft.  He didn't comment on 2018 draft but by all accounts it is a seriously, seriously talented draft.  So, that would be a serious upgrade benefiting the Crows.

Would prefer to keep 2018 picks intact if we can.

Edited August 24, 2017 by Lucifer's Hero

[old55 23,590]

1 hour ago, Fat Tony said:

Personally, I think we need a quality outside midfielder more so, but I get the attraction for Lever given his age and ability.

Agree with that!

[Vogon Poetry 2,095]

1 hour ago, Fat Tony said:

Personally, I think we need a quality outside midfielder more so, but I get the attraction for Lever given his age and ability.

I agree with that but the way it appears is we can get Lever but we can't get Kelly.  You take what you can get.  I don't think it necessarily means the FD have prioritized a KPD.

[binman 42,975]

1 minute ago, Vogon Poetry said:

I agree with that but the way it appears is we can get Lever but we can't get Kelly.  You take what you can get.  I don't think it necessarily means the FD have prioritized a KPD.

Yep. But one thing they def want/need is reaaly goos kicks. Lever, no 28, salem, hibberd and jetts all have twrrific de which is important in a defensive unit

[stevethemanjordan 6,952]

6 hours ago, Fat Tony said:

When did Alex Rance become a star? He also had fundamental skill issues until he was about 23, which is the same age as Frost. Liam Jones took until 26 to come good. Ted Richards is another example of a late bloomer. Jeremy McGovern did not get a game until he was 22. Just because Frost struggles at times with his skills, doesn't mean he won't improve.

Overall, your post misses some really important details and points in regards to this argument.

The first point I would bring to light is the significance of draft positions and the specific attributes that all those players you've mentioned either had or didn't have coming into the AFL system.

Rance went at pick #18, Richards went at pick #27 and Jones at #32 in their draft years respectively. 

Frost and McGovern were both rookie picks. Frost was a rookie because of his obvious football-skill specific limitations whereas McGovern was simply the opposite. The knock was on his athletic and physiological capabilities but he had football smarts and was a natural footballer. His fundamentals were sound.

Frost was at a disadvantage before he even entered the AFL system. He was a volley-ball/basketballer turned footballer who's very weaknesses have all been football-specific. Foot-skills, ball-handling, game sense, game awareness, handballing, football smarts etc. 

None of the list you've mentioned had or have the same number of weaknesses in the 'football specific' attributes column. Rance's kicking has been the knock early on, but he is simply incomparable to Frost due to the sheer number of outstanding football qualities he possessed which was evidenced by the fact he went at #18 in his draft year.

Frost is in his 6th year and is playing reserves in a side that has possibly the weakest key defensive unit within the AFL. Rance was an AA in his 6th year, McGovern was in the 40-man squad in his 5th year and Jones is currently heralded as one of the best key defenders in the game after having played the position for half the year. Richards is the only one who took his time to find his groove and again that wasn't because of a lack of ability/below average footy-specific skills. By 2010 he was Sydney's best defender, 5 years after his move to the Swans and his move to key defender.

Frost is overrated as I've stated. I like the strengths he possesses, but his weaknesses are across the most important attributes one needs to succeed at this level. 

Edited August 24, 2017 by stevethemanjordan

[Ted Lasso 19,518]

2 hours ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

In a recent podcast Jason Taylor didn't sound enamoured with this years draft.  He didn't comment on 2018 draft but by all accounts it is a seriously, seriously talented draft.  So, that would be a serious upgrade benefiting the Crows.

Would prefer to keep 2018 picks intact if we can.

Agreed. The club is generally pretty creative at the trade table 

[beelzebub 23,377]

I don't think in the context of this discussion that many over-rate Frosty. In the main Id think most would accept that he's still a bit raw, still more potential than 'delivered'  but that all in all he's shown promise combined with a touch of verve. He's not there by a long shot.. but he might get there.

Then you have Lever, who has indeed "arrived" and all things equal can only get better still.

If we are to land Lever what is the currency to do so ?  Most folk here , myself included, think Frosty might be part of that. If so..such is life, if not...such is life

[grazman 7,436]

3 hours ago, JTR said:

I really like Frost, but my main concern with losing him is that it would give us less flexibility to allow TMac to float and/or play forward, especially when the backs start getting injured.

Garland provides depth while Joel Smith, who is a good size and can jump, develops.

Edited August 24, 2017 by grazman

[Jaded No More 68,919]

If you wouldn't give up Frost to get Lever, you are crazy. 

Frost is a very ordinary user of the ball and an average at best defender. 

[binman 42,975]

2 hours ago, stevethemanjordan said:

 a side that has possibly the weakest key defensive unit within the AFL..

Steve your credibility tank ia almost empty. 

By the way im still looking forward to your promised analysis of every one of tmacs younger brother's involvements from a game few weeks back.

Edited August 24, 2017 by binman

[brendan 3,437]

https://www.triplem.com.au/sport/afl/news/jars-drops-some-intel-on-the-future-of-jake-lever-and-mitch-mcgovern

Jarman thinks lever is gone and will join us on some very good money 

[Gorgoroth 12,955]

If true I'll love Jars ?

[Wiseblood 24,637]

There is certainly a little more noise about Lever not just wanting to come back to Vic, but wanting to play for us as well.  Not sure if it's smoke and mirrors but there have been a few in the media who have been on this bandwagon.

[beelzebub 23,377]

I have nothing to base this upon.

I'm wondering who's more interested in whom ?

Who instigated what ? ?