Talking Point: Improvement - how far can we go in 2015?

[ILLDieADemon 804]

I'm very jaded when it comes to snides and pedants, who miss the point and who are blatently wrong and would not admit it if you put a gun to their head

really short fuse for that I'll admit

My point exactly, grumpy man.

[HEMLOCK 39]

snides and pedants? WTF

[Elusive Tunbridge 795]

I believe that cap is mine.

[norwood_demon 196]

When preparing for the retrospective feature on 1975, it struck me that the Melbourne Football Club made enormous strides in that year after a disastrous wooden spoon season in 1974.

...There were no big name recruits either ...

As an aging Demons supporter with the scars to prove it, I have to note that "Diamond Jim" Tilbrook played his last two games for MFC in 1975 and is listed in the Annual Report wearing #18. So W_J, we still had the biggest "big name recruit" of all on the 1975 list. Perhaps I am just bitter & twisted to be making this point after all of these years?

Maybe 1975 also teaches us not to look for "messiahs" but to invest in club administration, coaching and overall team development.

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

Roos has already said that the focus will be on the offensive side of the game in 2015, as opposed to the defensive focus of 2014.

Roos said Melbourne would focus on a better balance between defence and attack in 2015, having reduced its average points against by about six goals per game last season.

"We probably started to do that over the last eight weeks of the season, and in our last game we kicked 14 goals, but North Melbourne kicked 19, so it's just a balance," he said. "We need to get better at moving the ball quicker and scoring. They'll have a better understanding of the defensive stuff now, but teams need to score as well to put pressure on the opposition."

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/demons-steer-away-from-debutants-under-roos-20141105-11hbuy.html

OK... you're doing that retrospectively now. Plus he's not even talking about our games being more 'free-flowing'. He's just talking about scoring.

Even so, it makes almost no difference to the discussion. We've been talking a differential of 11.6 meaning 5.8 plus/minus to make us break even

Standardise our 92-total to a league 100-total. You get 43.5 vs 56.5, differential 13. That's 6.5 plus/minus vs 5.8.

We are 6.5 contests per match away from breaking even.. even in your 'free-flowing' scenario. Done.

[rjay 25,088]

As an aging Demons supporter with the scars to prove it, I have to note that "Diamond Jim" Tilbrook played his last two games for MFC in 1975 and is listed in the Annual Report wearing #18. So W_J, we still had the biggest "big name recruit" of all on the 1975 list. Perhaps I am just bitter & twisted to be making this point after all of these years?

Maybe 1975 also teaches us not to look for "messiahs" but to invest in club administration, coaching and overall team development.

Couldn't agree more. Let's leave the messiahs to Carlton and get on with the job at hand.

[Courtney_Fish 183]

[rpfc 28,779]

OK... you're doing that retrospectively now. Plus he's not even talking about our games being more 'free-flowing'. He's just talking about scoring.

Even so, it makes almost no difference to the discussion. We've been talking a differential of 11.6 meaning 5.8 plus/minus to make us break even

Standardise our 92-total to a league 100-total. You get 43.5 vs 56.5, differential 13. That's 6.5 plus/minus vs 5.8.

We are 6.5 contests per match away from breaking even.. even in your 'free-flowing' scenario. Done.

Reality may not be so neat when we 'standardise' in this coming season.

And you keep coming back to simply winning a contest that normally goes into the opposition 50 and simply kicking it into our forward line - but how does that compute with the fact that there are around 3 'contests' for every Inside 50 and not all of those can have such a 'turnaround' effect? Do you mean 'centre clearances?' Because they are also finite and hard to improve by your necessary 6.5 a game.

I don't think the way you are smashing these stats together stands up.

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

all I want is for us to win by a point in round 1, with an i50 count of 51-49, just to see what you would say. You would still find a way I'm sure.

[rpfc 28,779]

all I want is for us to win by a point in round 1, with an i50 count of 51-49, just to see what you would say. You would still find a way I'm sure.

Far too trusting of stats...

You posted about the correlation of two stats earlier - show me the proof of that correlation if you going to mention that they are related.

I love stats but I don't trust them, they will leave you looking like a fool if you let them.

Geelong were the lowest clearance team in the league, Adelaide averaged only 1 less Inside 50 than Hawthorn, and Melbourne had the 4th highest disposal efficiency...

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

Far too trusting of stats...

You posted about the correlation of two stats earlier - show me the proof of that correlation if you going to mention that they are related.

I love stats but I don't trust them, they will leave you looking like a fool if you let them.

Geelong were the lowest clearance team in the league, Adelaide averaged only 1 less Inside 50 than Hawthorn, and Melbourne had the 4th highest disposal efficiency...

I agree with you for a lot of stats but for inside-50 differential the correlation and importance is completely undeniable

[Whispering_Jack 30,664]

As an aging Demons supporter with the scars to prove it, I have to note that "Diamond Jim" Tilbrook played his last two games for MFC in 1975 and is listed in the Annual Report wearing #18. So W_J, we still had the biggest "big name recruit" of all on the 1975 list. Perhaps I am just bitter & twisted to be making this point after all of these years?

Maybe 1975 also teaches us not to look for "messiahs" but to invest in club administration, coaching and overall team development.

The club did very little in the way of recruiting for1975 and we certainly didn't have any messiahs at all that year. Tilbrook was recruited on big money in early 1971 and it took us more than half a season to secure his clearance. Although he looked a little bit like Superman when he ran out for his first game against South Melbourne and starred in our win, he turned out to be a bit of flop and never lived up to the hype (he had played in six premiership teams at SANFL level). I'm not saying it was his fault but we went from having a great start (8 wins out of the first 9 games) to missing out on the finals and then went backwards for the next three years. By 1975 "Diamond Jim" was well and truly washed up.

He played as a HFF and when I looked up his stats, I was surprised to find how closely he matched Christian Petracca in size - 184cm, 94kg -

John Tilbrook AFL Statistics

These days they would try to turn him into a midfielder but I don't believe he was really fit enough for the VFL as it was then and I think he would struggle for a game at AFL level given the way it's played today. In any event, he was certainly no messiah and, as we now know, you need more than one individual to get you up the ladder these days.

[Wrecker45 3,378]

I agree with you for a lot of stats but for inside-50 differential the correlation and importance is completely undeniable

The fact Richmond are 9th on the I50 differential ladder is all the evidence I need. Accurate.

[bush demon 2,062]

The club did very little in the way of recruiting for1975 and we certainly didn't have any messiahs at all that year. Tilbrook was recruited on big money in early 1971 and it took us more than half a season to secure his clearance. Although he looked a little bit like Superman when he ran out for his first game against South Melbourne and starred in our win, he turned out to be a bit of flop and never lived up to the hype (he had played in six premiership teams at SANFL level). I'm not saying it was his fault but we went from having a great start (8 wins out of the first 9 games) to missing out on the finals and then went backwards for the next three years. By 1975 "Diamond Jim" was well and truly washed up.

He played as a HFF and when I looked up his stats, I was surprised to find how closely he matched Christian Petracca in size - 184cm, 94kg -

John Tilbrook AFL Statistics

These days they would try to turn him into a midfielder but I don't believe he was really fit enough for the VFL as it was then and I think he would struggle for a game at AFL level given the way it's played today. In any event, he was certainly no messiah and, as we now know, you need more than one individual to get you up the ladder these days.

On World of Sport, Tilbrook started out as "Diamond Jim". Then Lou started calling him "Topaz", finishing with "Tillendrium".

[rpfc 28,779]

I agree with you for a lot of stats but for inside-50 differential the correlation and importance is completely undeniable

I think the correlation you mentioned was clearances to Inside 50s.

ah yes, i forgot that was you. Weren't we on the same page then? You've changed your tune?

I hate these arguments over basic mathematical principles BUT in 2014 we got 44%(vs 56% obv.) of the inside-50s in games we played.. that means you win an extra 5 contests over the course of a match, your i50 goes up 5 but your opponents ALSO decreases by 5, so the difference is a total of 10. FIVE contests over a match, on the premise of course that winning a contest around the middle of the ground, such as a stoppage, leads to an inside-50 (strong correlation). We also should be seeing a better return on goals-from-inside-50s because of Hogan and Garlett.. but that is a separate point. I guess what I'm rambling about is that 4 wins/17th place looks bad, but the difference between that and 11 wins/9th-10th place is actually quite minimal.

This is supported by the scoreboard also - 6 losses by 20 points or less (ave 11.7 pts). Gameday average of 28 points on the scoreboard below AFL average. Wouldn't you agree that 5 contests leads to an inside-50 differential change of 10, leads to another 2-4 goals per game, leads to winning those 6 closes ones, leads to being close to AFL average and a % of 100.00

?

[CHF 2,768]

I think that this Season we will rise 5 to 6 places on the ladder moving up to 11th or 12th. I base this upon the 12 months of development and understanding of the Roos game plan, the importation of a couple more experienced quality players and the development of some of our younger players with 2, 3 and 4 years with the club.

The coaching team seems to be far more structured than in the past and this seems to be reflected in the quality of the training, the minimal injuries that we are suffering and fitness levels of the individuals.

We all know we need to improve as a team but the real point is that we need to improve more than the teams above us.

[CBDees 3,167]

I think that this Season we will rise 5 to 6 places on the ladder moving up to 11th or 12th. I base this upon the 12 months of development and understanding of the Roos game plan, the importation of a couple more experienced quality players and the development of some of our younger players with 2, 3 and 4 years with the club.

The coaching team seems to be far more structured than in the past and this seems to be reflected in the quality of the training, the minimal injuries that we are suffering and fitness levels of the individuals.

We all know we need to improve as a team but the real point is that we need to improve more than the teams above us.

I am similarly adopting this optimistic approach, however I am hoping that we improve nine or ten spots to finish in the final eight this September.

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

I think the correlation you mentioned was clearances to Inside 50s.

you are without a doubt the biggest pedant I have ever encountered on a footy site

the way you just move from one thing to another in the face of being PROVEN wrong is truly pathetic

you just go 'well he's obviously got me there, let's pick some other thing and argue semantics over that to buy some time'

you must have some monster unresolved conflicts in your personal life

I hate you

Edited January 6, 2015 by Curry & Beer

[old dee 23,872]

you are without a doubt the biggest pedant I have ever encountered on a footy site

the way you just move from one thing to another in the face of being PROVEN wrong is truly pathetic

you just go 'well he's obviously got me there, let's pick some other thing and argue semantics over that to buy some time'

you must have some monster unresolved conflicts in your personal life

I hate you

wow and it is only 6th Jan

[Yossarian 1,820]

you are without a doubt the biggest pedant I have ever encountered on a footy site

the way you just move from one thing to another in the face of being PROVEN wrong is truly pathetic

you just go 'well he's obviously got me there, let's pick some other thing and argue semantics over that to buy some time'

you must have some monster unresolved conflicts in your personal life

I hate you

Love it.

[stevethemanjordan 6,952]

you are without a doubt the biggest pedant I have ever encountered on a footy site

the way you just move from one thing to another in the face of being PROVEN wrong is truly pathetic

you just go 'well he's obviously got me there, let's pick some other thing and argue semantics over that to buy some time'

you must have some monster unresolved conflicts in your personal life

I hate you

Almost sig worthy!

[Mad_Melbourne 877]

OK... you're doing that retrospectively now. Plus he's not even talking about our games being more 'free-flowing'. He's just talking about scoring.

Even so, it makes almost no difference to the discussion. We've been talking a differential of 11.6 meaning 5.8 plus/minus to make us break even

Standardise our 92-total to a league 100-total. You get 43.5 vs 56.5, differential 13. That's 6.5 plus/minus vs 5.8.

We are 6.5 contests per match away from breaking even.. even in your 'free-flowing' scenario. Done.

Im intrigued by your theory, what do you define as a contest? if its on a previous page i havent been bothered to look back.

Edited January 6, 2015 by Mad_Melbourne

[rpfc 28,779]

you are without a doubt the biggest pedant I have ever encountered on a footy site

the way you just move from one thing to another in the face of being PROVEN wrong is truly pathetic

you just go 'well he's obviously got me there, let's pick some other thing and argue semantics over that to buy some time'

you must have some monster unresolved conflicts in your personal life

I hate you

Wow.

That is something...

My personal life is fine thankyou very much, I am constantly let down by my football club but I doubt that I am alone with that punishment.

I was referring to the post above about the correlation between clearances and Inside 50s - you decided to do an analysis of the ladder and inside 50s - not me.

I am hardly going to dispute the fact that better teams that kick more goals than other teams have a higher number of Inside 50s compared to their opposition...

The only reason I mentioned Adelaide's Inside 50 count was because it is an outlier - a little lie - amongst an inherently true correlation between winning and I50s.

But, please, overreact. You already hate me, so perhaps a curse on my family/friends/football club.

[P-man 13,366]

Delivery for Mr Beer.

Sorry they're a little late. The truck broke down.

[binman 43,762]

Delivery for Mr Beer.

Sorry they're a little late. The truck broke down.

Did that upset you?