The one that got away

[IvanBartul13 2,564]

Seriously ?

Then you are better than all the recruiters and journalist combined.

The last draft where the top 3 picks have made an impact befitting top 3 picks is the Judd,Hodge,Ball draft. I have discounted the last three drafts as it is too early to pass judgement on these kids yet.

(my judgement is not based on whether they have no impact at all - but whether they have been in the top echelon of footballers - for example - I think Xavier Ellis has been a bust at 3 - but I think Luke Ball, although no champion was a more than serviceable footballer)

Meant to read any not my - was an ipad typo. The majority of top 3 picks are at the very least good if not better than that footballers.

[nutbean 8,838]

Meant to read any not my - was an ipad typo. The majority of top 3 picks are at the very least good if not better than that footballers.

This is where I disagree - Go back as far as 2000 and one in the top 3 are not "good to better than that footballers" and that is my point. Below is a list starting from 2009 of footballers taken in the first 3 that are average footballers ( I started at 2009 as I dont judge kids until they have hit 22) - do you think we should be getting better than "average" from a top 3 pick ?

Some of these have had injury concerns but they still have not been better than average

2009 - Scully, Trengove. 2008 Watts ( some will argue highlight reel Niknat but he has been better than average) 2007 Mastin Kruezer 2006 Gumbleton Hansen 2005 Ellis

2004 - all three better than average - Griffin frustrates the life out of me - his good is great, his average is very average. 2003 - Sylvia, Walker is patchy at best 2002 Brenan - loved his highs - but geez he had some stinkers 2001 - Judd/Ball Hodge - all really good ( interestingly that there are some real stinkers in the top 10 after them). 2000 - Koschitzke

Ask yourself - do you think any club that took these guys would say that these have been really good top 3 picks ??? The majority are good picks but one in three aren't. So history tells me that one of Petracca, Brayshaw and McCartin are going to end up like the footballers named above - are you going to be happy with that ?

[Gipsy Danger 1,067]

When I read 'the one that got away' I got all excited and thought, great a place that I can talk about the one that DID get away during cod opening! But alas, as the wife says, NO ONE CARES.

When I read 'the one that got away' I got all excited and thought, great a place that I can talk about the one that DID get away during cod opening! But alas, as the wife says, NO ONE CARES.

I care!

I lost one that would have easily been 80cm plus on Saturday night. Cut me off diving under a log

[IvanBartul13 2,564]

This is where I disagree - Go back as far as 2000 and one in the top 3 are not "good to better than that footballers" and that is my point. Below is a list starting from 2009 of footballers taken in the first 3 that are average footballers ( I started at 2009 as I dont judge kids until they have hit 22) - do you think we should be getting better than "average" from a top 3 pick ?

Some of these have had injury concerns but they still have not been better than average

2009 - Scully, Trengove. 2008 Watts ( some will argue highlight reel Niknat but he has been better than average) 2007 Mastin Kruezer 2006 Gumbleton Hansen 2005 Ellis

2004 - all three better than average - Griffin frustrates the life out of me - his good is great, his average is very average. 2003 - Sylvia, Walker is patchy at best 2002 Brenan - loved his highs - but geez he had some stinkers 2001 - Judd/Ball Hodge - all really good ( interestingly that there are some real stinkers in the top 10 after them).

Ask yourself - do you think any club that took these guys would say that these have been really good top 3 picks ??? The majority are good picks but one in three aren't. So history tells me that one of Petracca, Brayshaw and McCartin are going to end up like the footballers named above - are you going to be happy with that ?

How do you have Masten as only average when he has has more 30 possession games than Nathan Jones. Clearly at worse he is better than average. Most of the players you mentioned are better than the average footballer and I'm done discussing this

[DeeVoted 583]

Don't get where he is going? Read through the McCartin Bradshaw petracca threads and some are suggesting that it doesn't matter who we get as all 3 will be really good footballers. History tells us that at least one won't be. So many are seduced by gushy reports and a three minute best of package which is taken over a season or two.

I hope the draftees will be all they are hyped up to be. But I won't be yelling "we nailed it" until we have actually nailed it.

If you think the post was about Sylvia then you have missed the point of the post.

Perhaps you amd I can discuss the chances of the new recruits. One poster doesnt have a clue, and has admitted that. Getting stuck into Sylvia has been done to death. I am totally discounting everything that has been written about Petracca,Brayshaw and the rest (proir to the draft) until I see some proof that they can take the they next step. Over to you.

[Ron Burgundy 8,584]

I don't really get this thread.

Should we have passed on Petracca and Brayshaw, or at least not be remotely excited about having recruiting them, simply because they were extremely highly rated juniors, just as Sylvia was?

[DeeVoted 583]

I don't really get this thread.

Should we have passed on Petracca and Brayshaw, or at least not be remotely excited about having recruiting them, simply because they were extremely highly rated juniors, just as Sylvia was?

The point is, discount anything that has been written about them. Although it all sounds promising and more likely than not they might be very good players.We wipe their slate clean on all the hype until we see some proof that they have what it takes to be an AFL player. How good? remains to be seen.

whence the example in the opening post, all sounds rosy, but we never got to see the player that was described in his pre draft report. We got a snapshot here and there. Until I see some proof that they have what it takes to play AFL at a high level. I'm on the fence.

[Ron Burgundy 8,584]

I don't think you can actually discount what's been written about them or how they have performed to date or how they have been rated by coaches/experts etc.

I think it's absolutely relevant.

[Ron Burgundy 8,584]

It's also self evident that 'only time will tell'.

But you can say that about virtually any player. Or, in fact, any issue. In life.

Becomes a slightly meaningless perspective IMO, as it effectively censors/neutralises any and all debate on such topics.

[nutbean 8,838]

I don't really get this thread.

Should we have passed on Petracca and Brayshaw, or at least not be remotely excited about having recruiting them, simply because they were extremely highly rated juniors, just as Sylvia was?

Pass on them ? No

Get excited about them ? Yes.

That's where I draw the line.

Many just overhype young draftees. "Ready to go day one" is probably the one that sticks in my craw the most..

[nutbean 8,838]

How do you have Masten as only average when he has has more 30 possession games than Nathan Jones. Clearly at worse he is better than average. Most of the players you mentioned are better than the average footballer and I'm done discussing this

Answer me one question and I will stop.

Will you be happy if Brayshaw and Petracca have similar careers as all the players I listed ?

(on Masten you picked one stat - talk to Eagle supporters about Masten - As an opposition supporter i would love Masten to have the ball 40 times a game as it will means we will get the ball 40 times straight away)

[DeeVoted 583]

I don't think you can actually discount what's been written about them or how they have performed to date or how they have been rated by coaches/experts etc.

I think it's absolutely relevant.

Ok we disagree,that's fine. I have no problem with that. Lets go back to $cully ,Morton and all the others that didnt live up to the hype. I was lead to believe we had the best players in the draft, or at least we have chosen the best available (or for our needs) Only to watch all unfold and then left looking stupid.

So its with some reservations I am not going to get caught up with the writeups until I hear and see them produce in a AFL game.

[Oneday 248]

I care!

I lost one that would have easily been 80cm plus on Saturday night. Cut me off diving under a log

Thanks Hellfish nice to know, I was in my hobie kayak and it was on but I couldn't get over top of the big fella and he did pretty much the same diving under some timber. The worst thing is this one teases me as it is pretty much just over the road from where I live and I have been after him for a while now.

[nutbean 8,838]

I don't think you can actually discount what's been written about them or how they have performed to date or how they have been rated by coaches/experts etc.

I think it's absolutely relevant.

Agreed - but to then to take the next step and suggest that because these underaged, immature kids have performed a certain way in an aged limited competition with other immature and under-developed kids that it will automatically translate into stellar AFL careers is not only mistake but in so many case proven not to be true.

I'll pose the same question to you as I have posed to goodoil - look at the players taken in all the drafts at picks 1-3 that I posted.

Are you going to be happy if Petracca and Brayshaw turn out to players like these ? I will pick one player in particular - would you be happy if Brayshaw turned out to be identical to Masten ?

[rjay 24,616]

The point is, discount anything that has been written about them. Although it all sounds promising and more likely than not they might be very good players.We wipe their slate clean on all the hype until we see some proof that they have what it takes to be an AFL player. How good? remains to be seen.

whence the example in the opening post, all sounds rosy, but we never got to see the player that was described in his pre draft report. We got a snapshot here and there. Until I see some proof that they have what it takes to play AFL at a high level. I'm on the fence.

I probably wouldn't discount anything written as sometimes there are clues as there was in the Silvia write up.

However I do agree there is a lot of hype and many don't live up to the hype. I hope our 2 new top 10 picks live up to their ranking but wouldn't be surprised if our pick 40 outperforms them.

[Ron Burgundy 8,584]

I don't think anyone here is seriously expecting either of them to come in and perform like Dangerfield from round 1.

Not even Dangerfield performed like Dangerfield in his first year.

Relevantly Paul Roos has effectively said he won't even allow it to happen - he will ensure the club develops them properly.

He also demonstrated the gap to them between TAC and AFL in their very first training session with the club. And they only completed 50% of the session.

Doesn't mean they aren't absolutely sensational long term recruits for this club though and we shouldn't be excited that we landed them.

[Bossdog 2,002]

If you can't get excited about our new recruits at this time of the year then what is the point of having a forum where we all discus them?......If we all don't read the profiles and watch the highlights and have hope and anticipation for the year ahead then what is the point? We may as well shut down demonland and hibinate for 6 months

I enjoy the off season.....I enjoy seeing the new blokes....I enjoy the training reports....I enjoy reading others opinions.

I also enjoy the anticipation of the coming year.

[Mad_Melbourne 872]

I guess it really depends on your definition of average player, considering more often than not AFL players rarely make the 50 game mark, an average player will play over 75 games at a club possibly. Through this it is clearly evident that those players picked in picks inside the top5 are much more successful than all other picks in the draft.

Yes they might not be "the best player picked in their draft" but they develop to an above average footballer and are much more likely to reach the 100+ game and contribute more to their club than picks that are lower down the order. Of course this is not always the case but much more likely with the higher draft picks.

Sure there are flops and injury is a curse for most of those flops i.e. Kruezer, Gumbleton but at the end of the day it is how you approach things. If you expect a flat out superstar like Gary Ablett it is unlikely that it will occur, but if you expect an above average footballer who will contribute 100+ games to your club and 8+ years service then it is a win from that draft.

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

The difference between being hyped about a high draft pick and actually seeing a gun player for the MFC is dependent on ALL of these:

1. was our recruitment process efficient in selecting the appropriate players?

2. will their style of play that created junior dominance translate to the big league?

3. will they actually improve as players or is their 18 year old output their career plateau?

4. will the MFC do their job in developing them properly?

5. will the game change in ways that help or hinder their individual style?

6. will they struggle with injuries?

ALL of these factor in... IMHO number 4 is the most critical, and also happens to be the only one that we can really do anything about moving forward

[nutbean 8,838]

I guess it really depends on your definition of average player, considering more often than not AFL players rarely make the 50 game mark, an average player will play over 75 games at a club possibly. Through this it is clearly evident that those players picked in picks inside the top5 are much more successful than all other picks in the draft.

Yes they might not be "the best player picked in their draft" but they develop to an above average footballer and are much more likely to reach the 100+ game and contribute more to their club than picks that are lower down the order. Of course this is not always the case but much more likely with the higher draft picks.

Sure there are flops and injury is a curse for most of those flops i.e. Kruezer, Gumbleton but at the end of the day it is how you approach things. If you expect a flat out superstar like Gary Ablett it is unlikely that it will occur, but if you expect an above average footballer who will contribute 100+ games to your club and 8+ years service then it is a win from that draft.

We got lots of "Average" and just "above average" footballers on our list - we need a lot better than that.

Again I ask - are you going to be satisfied if both Petracca and Brayshaw turn out to be just above average footballers ?

Jack Watts is an average to just above average footballer who has played 95 games. Happy that we took him with draft pick one ?

Understand that I don't give a rats where a player is taken in the draft. I am excited to get what appear to be talented young footballers into the club.

I understand though that one of them could be Chris Judd or conversely an Xavier Ellis.

[nutbean 8,838]

The difference between being hyped about a high draft pick and actually seeing a gun player for the MFC is dependent on ALL of these:

1. was our recruitment process efficient in selecting the appropriate players?

2. will their style of play that created junior dominance translate to the big league?

3. will they actually improve as players or is their 18 year old output their career plateau?

4. will the MFC do their job in developing them properly?

5. will the game change in ways that help or hinder their individual style?

6. will they struggle with injuries?

ALL of these factor in... IMHO number 4 is the most critical, and also happens to be the only one that we can really do anything about moving forward

1. Probably yes - but they are only appropriate today - tomorrow is the big unknown

2. see point 1 !

3. see point 1 !

4. This is the thing I am most excited about - The development vs recruiting debate has been done to death. This debate will be have much less relevance in the future because we have now invested heavily in this area and I think we will give our recruits every possible chance to be developed properly

5. see point 1.

6. Who knows

You did forget to factor in the club that players get recruited into. It must be easier developing at Hawthorn where

1. you have established senior stars to mentor you

2. The team is so well drilled and skilled that anticipation of what will happen makes your job easier. If Mitchell and an lesser light from another club are going at a ball - you may make space as you would back Mitchell to win the contest. Opposition players may either join the contest or take a wait and see what happens approach not having the same confidence in their teammate

3. I have used Gunston as an example before - he had a couple of years to further develop under Roughy and Buddy being the third tall. Took the third best defender and found himself the player most likely to be free as more attention was paid to his better credentialed teammates. I would suggest Hogan will take the best defender next year - welcome to the big league !

[Mad_Melbourne 872]

We got lots of "Average" and just "above average" footballers on our list - we need a lot better than that.

Again I ask - are you going to be satisfied if both Petracca and Brayshaw turn out to be just above average footballers ?

Jack Watts is an average to just above average footballer who has played 95 games. Happy that we took him with draft pick one ?

Understand that I don't give a rats where a player is taken in the draft. I am excited to get what appear to be talented young footballers into the club.

I understand though that one of them could be Chris Judd or conversely an Xavier Ellis.

The debate about whether they are average or not is all about definition, i was more making the point that getting excited about these draft picks is more warranted due to the likelyhood that they will contribute to their club. Both Petracca and Brayshaw with their bodies right will be 150+ game players at the club and if they are able to contribute to our strengthening midfield and even if Petracca "just" becomes a half forward, I do not really care if it helps the all over team dynamic. The development of these draft picks is vital and the good thing is that the processes are being implemented to ensure their continual development. Players that dominate in their age group tend to be better players in their careers.Its all about definition.

From Jack Watts draft i am happy we took him with pick 1, sure there might be a few players that have out performed him in midfield roles in better teams but in the top 10 of his draft Hamish Hartlett is the only player i would have over Jack Watts currently, but that is a different debate. With 6-8 years left on the list and his best football ahead of him i dont see how Jack Watts will only be considered an average contributor as we will almost play 200 games at the MFC.

[Nasher 33,607]

The difference between being hyped about a high draft pick and actually seeing a gun player for the MFC is dependent on ALL of these:

1. was our recruitment process efficient in selecting the appropriate players?

2. will their style of play that created junior dominance translate to the big league?

3. will they actually improve as players or is their 18 year old output their career plateau?

4. will the MFC do their job in developing them properly?

5. will the game change in ways that help or hinder their individual style?

6. will they struggle with injuries?

ALL of these factor in... IMHO number 4 is the most critical, and also happens to be the only one that we can really do anything about moving forward

Yep - this probably sums up why it's so hard to get any draft pick right. Parts 2, 3 and 5 require a crystal ball and are very hard to get right, it's probably 25% art, 75% luck (and 0% science). Part 6 is 100% pure luck of the draw. Part 1 and 4 are the only things truly within the club's control, with part 4 being the only one we can influence in the future, as you said.

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

You did forget to factor in the club that players get recruited into. It must be easier developing at Hawthorn where

1. you have established senior stars to mentor you

2. The team is so well drilled and skilled that anticipation of what will happen makes your job easier. If Mitchell and an lesser light from another club are going at a ball - you may make space as you would back Mitchell to win the contest. Opposition players may either join the contest or take a wait and see what happens approach not having the same confidence in their teammate

3. I have used Gunston as an example before - he had a couple of years to further develop under Roughy and Buddy being the third tall. Took the third best defender and found himself the player most likely to be free as more attention was paid to his better credentialed teammates. I would suggest Hogan will take the best defender next year - welcome to the big league !

Agree entirely, I considered all that to be inherent in number 4. As I keep saying, we will never know what would have become of Morton, Blease, Gysberts etc had they not been drafted in to the 'perfect storm' of developmental excrement that was the Bailey/Neeld MFC

I often wonder about the effect of getting belted, playing to 35 people on a Sunday night and having the media CONSTANTLY bagging the club you are at - has o be a real drainer emotionally on young kids. Dear God will we EVER get to see big wins and big crowds and some respect from the footy world? I think if we had that, our youngsters would go up a rung straight away.

[DeeVoted 583]

I don't think anyone here is seriously expecting either of them to come in and perform like Dangerfield from round 1.

Not even Dangerfield performed like Dangerfield in his first year.

Relevantly Paul Roos has effectively said he won't even allow it to happen - he will ensure the club develops them properly.

He also demonstrated the gap to them between TAC and AFL in their very first training session with the club. And they only completed 50% of the session.

Doesn't mean they aren't absolutely sensational long term recruits for this club though and we shouldn't be excited that we landed them.

Now you get it!

In fairness to the posts that I have read,in the training reports and numberous other threads on Dland, I don't recall anyone saying they expect our new draft picks to perform like a Dangerfield. I think you just wanted to make a point by using an extreme.But I still see a trend that most do expect them to be 'gun' players. And this is the point of the whole thread. Be careful what you expect, because it may not end up as what was expected. As Mad Melbourne and Nutbean etc have posted, for many reasons a hyped up recruit fails to live up to the hype. Then the blame game starts. its the club, its the coaches. Well this time I;ve put a line in the sand. Let them show me what they can do in a AFL game and do it constistently well. Then I will say whatever writeups/hype that bestowed them was correct and warranted. Until then expect little, and hope for the best.