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WELCOME TO THE MELBOURNE FOOTBALL CLUB - ANGUS BRAYSHAW

ashdemons22
ashdemons22
in Melbourne Demons

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Statistically if you randomly get 20 people together 2 of them will have the same birthday (but not the same birth year) a very large proportion of the time. Have forgotten the percentage that it holds true but is very high.

doesnt follow logic..

surely the chances of any day of year are 1/365 The chances of the same day for second person is...1/365

chances of 2 people having same day of year are..1/133225

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    •  

    doesnt follow logic..

    surely the chances of any day of year are 1/365 The chances of the same day for second person is...1/365

    chances of 2 people having same day of year are..1/133225

    True, not logical. Have forgotten my uni stats course but it is to do with probability theory. Try it a few times, it works a very high percentage of the time!

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    •  

    doesnt follow logic..

    surely the chances of any day of year are 1/365 The chances of the same day for second person is...1/365

    chances of 2 people having same day of year are..1/133225

    lol, if I may say so. The probability that the first person has a birthday is 1. The chance that the next person has the same birthday is 1/365.

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    The odds of someone posting about Angus on this thread are getting slimmer...

    I would like someone to post the dimensions of Angus' melon.

    That is quite a sizeable head he has, will be useful in taking up space in our defensive zone.

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    I would like someone to post the dimensions of Angus' melon.

    That is quite a sizeable head he has, will be useful in taking up space in our defensive zone.

    Check out the head on DeGoey, it's fricken huge!

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    lol, if I may say so. The probability that the first person has a birthday is 1. The chance that the next person has the same birthday is 1/365.

    the probability of a birthday on any given day is that one day in a year.. 1 in 365. the chance of a second is the same

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    The odds of someone posting about Angus on this thread are getting slimmer...

    If you want to change the topic then start your own thread.

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    •  

    the probability of a birthday on any given day is that one day in a year.. 1 in 365. the chance of a second is the same

    One word makes all the difference - but why you would specify the day in advance eludes me. Unless you want Angus and Christian to share your birthday? Never took you for a fanboy, bub.

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    One word makes all the difference - but why you would specify the day in advance eludes me. Unless you want Angus and Christian to share your birthday? Never took you for a fanboy, bub.

    nah...keep it to self..:)

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    I don;t often post, but thought i might weight in here as i do have an honours degree is Statistics.

    Day 1 of first year Statistics you will generally be presented with the "Birthday Paradox": http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem

    In your class of 30 people - there is a 70% chance that two people share a birthday. Much higher than you might expect. (A lot of people wrongly predict 30/365 are the odds).

    In this, as in many probability problems, you need to look at the "complementary" (opposite) event.
    i.e. What are the odds that in a class of 30 no-one shares a birthday.

    This is 365/365 * 364/365 * 363/365 *362/365 * ....... * 336/365 = 29.4%. (or a 70.6% chance that people share a birthday).

    For our class of 5 draftees. the odds that 2 share a birthday are:
    1 - 365/365 * 364/365 * 363/365 * 362/365 *361/365 = 2.7%. i.e. Pretty low.

    But extrapolate this across 18 clubs with 5 draftees. The odds that at least one club has a pair of draftees with the same birthday is (again using complementary events):
    1 - (97.3%)^18 = 39%. i.e. Pretty good odds.

    Probability & Statistics on the Demonland Board - Let the Good Times Roll!

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    I don;t often post, but thought i might weight in here as i do have an honours degree is Statistics.

    Day 1 of first year Statistics you will generally be presented with the "Birthday Paradox": http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem

    In your class of 30 people - there is a 70% chance that two people share a birthday. Much higher than you might expect. (A lot of people wrongly predict 30/365 are the odds).

    In this, as in many probability problems, you need to look at the "complementary" (opposite) event.

    i.e. What are the odds that in a class of 30 no-one shares a birthday.

    This is 365/365 * 364/365 * 363/365 *362/365 * ....... * 336/365 = 29.4%. (or a 70.6% chance that people share a birthday).

    For our class of 5 draftees. the odds that 2 share a birthday are:

    1 - 365/365 * 364/365 * 363/365 * 362/365 *361/365 = 2.7%. i.e. Pretty low.

    But extrapolate this across 18 clubs with 5 draftees. The odds that at least one club has a pair of draftees with the same birthday is (again using complementary events):

    1 - (97.3%)^18 = 39%. i.e. Pretty good odds.

    Probability & Statistics on the Demonland Board - Let the Good Times Roll!

    Oh yeah. You lost me at 'statistics'.
  • Quote

    I don;t often post, but thought i might weight in here as i do have an honours degree is Statistics.

    Day 1 of first year Statistics you will generally be presented with the "Birthday Paradox": http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem

    In your class of 30 people - there is a 70% chance that two people share a birthday. Much higher than you might expect. (A lot of people wrongly predict 30/365 are the odds).

    In this, as in many probability problems, you need to look at the "complementary" (opposite) event.

    i.e. What are the odds that in a class of 30 no-one shares a birthday.

    This is 365/365 * 364/365 * 363/365 *362/365 * ....... * 336/365 = 29.4%. (or a 70.6% chance that people share a birthday).

    For our class of 5 draftees. the odds that 2 share a birthday are:

    1 - 365/365 * 364/365 * 363/365 * 362/365 *361/365 = 2.7%. i.e. Pretty low.

    But extrapolate this across 18 clubs with 5 draftees. The odds that at least one club has a pair of draftees with the same birthday is (again using complementary events):

    1 - (97.3%)^18 = 39%. i.e. Pretty good odds.

    Probability & Statistics on the Demonland Board - Let the Good Times Roll!

    Too much times on your hand.
  • Quote

    I don;t often post, but thought i might weight in here as i do have an honours degree is Statistics.

    Day 1 of first year Statistics you will generally be presented with the "Birthday Paradox": http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem

    In your class of 30 people - there is a 70% chance that two people share a birthday. Much higher than you might expect. (A lot of people wrongly predict 30/365 are the odds).

    Thanks for backing up my post Mega Watts, well sort of...I'm guessing when I did stats we learnt it was 2 out of 20 (with a commensurate lower probability)...or else my memory has faded and it always was 2 in 30 with the same birthday. Could never have explained why, like you have. Well done!

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    I don;t often post, but thought i might weight in here as i do have an honours degree is Statistics.

    Day 1 of first year Statistics you will generally be presented with the "Birthday Paradox": http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem

    In your class of 30 people - there is a 70% chance that two people share a birthday. Much higher than you might expect. (A lot of people wrongly predict 30/365 are the odds).

    In this, as in many probability problems, you need to look at the "complementary" (opposite) event.

    i.e. What are the odds that in a class of 30 no-one shares a birthday.

    This is 365/365 * 364/365 * 363/365 *362/365 * ....... * 336/365 = 29.4%. (or a 70.6% chance that people share a birthday).

    For our class of 5 draftees. the odds that 2 share a birthday are:

    1 - 365/365 * 364/365 * 363/365 * 362/365 *361/365 = 2.7%. i.e. Pretty low.

    But extrapolate this across 18 clubs with 5 draftees. The odds that at least one club has a pair of draftees with the same birthday is (again using complementary events):

    1 - (97.3%)^18 = 39%. i.e. Pretty good odds.

    Probability & Statistics on the Demonland Board - Let the Good Times Roll!

    Thanks MW was going to do all that, you saved me the effort.

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    This discussion on statistics and birthdays has given me more laughs than any other on Demonland. Mega_Watts has added the fine detail with aplomb. Of course, having the same birthday is more common than being the same age and having the same birthday. But we could assume that draftees will be the same age in the majority of cases. I guess the whole coincidence would have been newsworthy if Petracca's birthday was also 9th of January!

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    I don;t often post, but thought i might weight in here as i do have an honours degree is Statistics.

    Day 1 of first year Statistics you will generally be presented with the "Birthday Paradox": http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem

    In your class of 30 people - there is a 70% chance that two people share a birthday. Much higher than you might expect. (A lot of people wrongly predict 30/365 are the odds).

    In this, as in many probability problems, you need to look at the "complementary" (opposite) event.

    i.e. What are the odds that in a class of 30 no-one shares a birthday.

    This is 365/365 * 364/365 * 363/365 *362/365 * ....... * 336/365 = 29.4%. (or a 70.6% chance that people share a birthday).

    For our class of 5 draftees. the odds that 2 share a birthday are:

    1 - 365/365 * 364/365 * 363/365 * 362/365 *361/365 = 2.7%. i.e. Pretty low.

    But extrapolate this across 18 clubs with 5 draftees. The odds that at least one club has a pair of draftees with the same birthday is (again using complementary events):

    1 - (97.3%)^18 = 39%. i.e. Pretty good odds.

    Probability & Statistics on the Demonland Board - Let the Good Times Roll!

    Would you have to take into account the fact there are 80 draftees and we only select 5?

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    BTW Brayshaw reminds me of Robert Harvey I think it's the hair/head.

    was thinking the same
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    Angus "Brownlow" Brayshaw

    Has a certain ring to it.

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    • 4 months later...

    Hogan #1 for contested marks

    Brayshaw#5 for tackles

    Who says young players can't make an impact right away?

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    •  

    Brayshaw equal fifth for total tackles in the league. That's just ridiculous.

    Gee he was terrific with his tackling Friday night. Anticipation is fantastic. Needs to work on disposals as he turned it over badly but that looks fixable. His technique looks fine but more the pace of the game was cutting his passes off. Think we have a beauty here. Definitely a starter in the 22 as he seemed to run out the game well.

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    And when you factor in that he's been the sub or subbed in several games it's not unreasonable to argue that he could've been number 1. Phenomenal effort.

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