2013 realistic expectations

[Grimseyisgod 378]

With the draw that we have..

I reckon that we should finish about 10th

But if we can get our things together, we could challenge for the 8.

Alot depends on the impacts of Mitch Clark, Chris Dawes, Jones, Rodan and Brynes.

These players could seriously impact where we finish on the ladder..

But obviously we could have another disaster and finish in the bottom 4.

I do not think at the moment we are capable of finishing in the top 6, maybe in 1-2 years

[demonkeaney 61]

Richmond will make the 8...

I'm very statistically minded, but they were statistically the unluckiest/underperformed team since 1975 (South Melbourne)

Their draw is easier and I think they're ready.

I want us to win 8-12 and i think we can, and probably should. Steady progress up to around 11th on the ladder, 2014 finals bound.

Go dees

[Guest]

I will be happy with a Brisbane Lions-esque performance. Their list is equal to ours/slightly inferior but they got the most out of themselves and eked out 10 wins. 8-10 wins with the easiest draw in the AFL is doable.

[timD 994]

Improvement for me entirely depends on the midfield. I see no reason to think that we'll improve enough to pass anyone on that count this year. We'll finish 14-15 because we have an easy draw. I think the Prendergast years have damaged us near indefinitely. Until Viney, Toumpus and one or taggert/evans/jones/superman become A graders we will not improve relative to any other team. It is depressing but our midfield is still, IMO, one of the worst in the AFL.

I hope Prendergast gets his fair whack one day. [censored].

[Sir Why You Little 37,134]

Improvement for me entirely depends on the midfield. I see no reason to think that we'll improve enough to pass anyone on that count this year. We'll finish 14-15 because we have an easy draw. I think the Prendergast years have damaged us near indefinitely. Until Viney, Toumpus and one or taggert/evans/jones/superman become A graders we will not improve relative to any other team. It is depressing but our midfield is still, IMO, one of the worst in the AFL.

I hope Prendergast gets his fair whack one day. [censored].

You could well be right TimD...but i like what Neeld & co have done...it is not perfect but if the players he has bought in are really hungry for a good AFL career

we may see some drastic change.

Our draw is good so 2-3 wins in a row just might get the old girl moving.

[Dr. Gonzo 24,305]

Finals. That is the aim and my expectation at the start of every year.

Then these expectations are readjusted depending on how well/poorly we are doing

[Rhino Richards 1,467]

The key issues for me are:

1. We could not get any easier draw this year as we play GWS, GC, BL and WB twice. We start with PA at home.

2. We still dont have a midfield that will see big improvement there. Viney and Toumpas will still take a couple of years to show there worth.

3. And with no injuries or stupid suspensions.......

I reckon a pass mark for us will be 8 wins and based on last year (1st year with 18 teams) will see us about 13th.

For those of you contemplating finals we will need at least 12 to 13 wins.....To do that we will need some pretty good wins.

I reckon 9 wins which will put us 12-13th.

And hopefully we play better football this year!

[Je Roos Salem 661]

Considering we play GC and GWS twice (Unless they markedly improve) as well as a pretty easy fixture (especially till R15) I reckon 11 wins would be pretty good, though having said that I just want us to change our culture of giving up. I can hardly recall a loss in 2012 where we fought till the end. Sure the Essendon game was brilliant, but that was an extreme one off. Apart from comfortable wins against GC and GWS at the G where we played pretty well throughout, every other game we just had patches of about 1-3 quarters before disgracing ourselves at the end. The Dockers game was a prime example, but there were also seeing this during home games at the MCG. We've got to make the G our stronghold again and play consistent footy. How we lost really frustrated me this year. Barely any passion or will in the final terms

[Deecisive 1,709]

Been watching the foxtel reruns of some of our games, we have a way to go. Having said that we have recruited well and now have greater depth so that we can stop playing players based on name and make them earn their spots in the team, which should make us a lot more competitive,I would hope that with the soft draw we have and changes in personnel that we could make 10th spot by the end of 2013.

[jnrmac 20,189]

There is a big slider every year. Next yr I think it will be Sydney.

The big improver will be Brisbane.

[Guest Deemand]

Round 1, Sunday March 31st

Melbourne vPort Adelaide

MCG 1.10pm Round 2, Saturday April 6th

Essendon vMelbourne

MCG 7.40pm Round 3, Saturday April 13th

Melbourne vWest Coast Eagles

MCG 2.10pm Round 4, Sunday April 21st

Melbourne vGWS GIANTS

MCG 1.10pm Round 5, Sunday April 28th

Brisbane Lions vMelbourne

G 3.15pm Round 6, Sunday May 5th

Carlton vMelbourne

MCG 3.15pm Round 7, Sunday May 12th

Melbourne vGold Coast SUNS

MCG 4.40pm Round 8, Sunday May 19th

Richmond vMelbourne

MCG 3.15pm Round 9, Sunday May 26th

Fremantle vMelbourne

PS 2.40pm Round 10, Sunday June 2nd

Melbourne vHawthorn

MCG 3.15pm Round 11, Monday June 10th

Melbourne vCollingwood

MCG 3.15pm Round 12, Bye Round 13, Saturday June 22nd

St Kilda vMelbourne

MCG 4.40pm Round 14, Saturday June 29th

Melbourne vWestern Bulldogs

MCG 7.40pm Round 15, Sunday July 7th

Melbourne vSydney Swans

MCG 1.10pm Round 16, Saturday July 13th

Geelong Cats vMelbourne

SS 2.10pm Round 17, Saturday July 20th

Melbourne vBrisbane Lions

TIO 7.10pm Round 18, Saturday July 27th

Melbourne vNorth Melbourne

ES 2.10pm Round 19, Saturday August 3rd

GWS GIANTS vMelbourne

SK 1.45pm Round 20, Saturday August 10th

Gold Coast SUNS vMelbourne

MS 7.40pm Round 21, Sunday August 18th

Melbourne vFremantle

MCG 1.10pm Round 22, Saturday August 24th

Adelaide Crows vMelbourne

AS 1.15pm Round 23, TBC

Western Bulldogs vMelbourne

Looking at the Draw above the rounds that we have a shot at winning are;

Round 1, Round 2, Round 4, Round 5, Round 7, Round 13, Round 14, Round 17, Round 19, Round 20, Round 21, Round 23

I believe if we win 8+ games we're moving in the right direction. I don't want to get carried away anymore and be disappointed like the past 6 or so years.

Edited December 16, 2012 by Deemand

[jnrmac 20,189]

The key issues for me are:

1. We could not get any easier draw this year as we play GWS, GC, BL and WB twice. We start with PA at home.

2. We still dont have a midfield that will see big improvement there. Viney and Toumpas will still take a couple of years to show there worth.

3. And with no injuries or stupid suspensions.......

I reckon a pass mark for us will be 8 wins and based on last year (1st year with 18 teams) will see us about 13th.

For those of you contemplating finals we will need at least 12 to 13 wins.....To do that we will need some pretty good wins.

I reckon 9 wins which will put us 12-13th.

And hopefully we play better football this year!

8 wins is a pass???? With the draw we have? That's insane.

It should be a 10 win minimum starting with Rd 1 when we haven't won since 2005. PLaying Port at home should be the perfect start.

And the NAB Cup? I want to see some momentum. We never have any going into the year and it is in my view vital that we register some good form in the NAB cup to take that momentum into the year.

[jabberwocky 2,301]

There is a big slider every year. Next yr I think it will be Sydney.

They have been copping that prediction forever.

They will be at the pointy end again barring mass injuries.

[old dee 23,872]

8 wins is a pass???? With the draw we have? That's insane.

It should be a 10 win minimum starting with Rd 1 when we haven't won since 2005. PLaying Port at home should be the perfect start.

And the NAB Cup? I want to see some momentum. We never have any going into the year and it is in my view vital that we register some good form in the NAB cup to take that momentum into the year.

Jnr it pays to remember we we are coming from.

In case the changes of the off season has affected your memory.

We had 1 genuine win last season and were uncompetitive in 14 games, most games were over at quarter time.

Now I know there have been a lot of changes at the MFC but we are still going to be playing the same teams as in 2012

And IMO none of those are going to roll over and play dead.

GCS and GWS will improve as well

I think 8 will be a good result.

Edited December 17, 2012 by old dee

[Vipercrunch 2,827]

My hope for next year is whatever Greg Denham says would make him admit he has totally mis-read what is happening at the MFC at the moment PLUS some. Given his rants i wouls say anything above 6-7 wins would force him to eat his words.

My expectation is 8-10 wins and no losses >75 points.

[Sir Why You Little 37,134]

My hope for next year is whatever Greg Denham says would make him admit he has totally mis-read what is happening at the MFC at the moment PLUS some. Given his rants i wouls say anything above 6-7 wins would force him to eat his words.

My expectation is 8-10 wins and no losses >75 points.

good call.

It would be great to hear "Joan" ring up Denham and give it to him, both barrels.

Leave him speechless.

I too hope..

[Hannibal 5,814]

Jnr it pays to remember we we are coming from.

In case the changes of the off season has affected your memory.

We had 1 genuine win last season and were uncompetitive in 14 games, most games were over at quarter time.

Now I know there have been a lot of changes at the MFC but we are still going to be playing the same teams as in 2012

And IMO none of those are going to roll over and play dead.

GCS and GWS will improve as well

I think 8 will be a good result.

Not withstanding all of your valid points, it's also worth noting that there have been plenty of cases of teams making rapid rises up the ladder in one year.

Brisbane 4 wins to 10 in 2011/12

Carlton 4-10 2007/2008

Collingwood 5-14 2005/2006

Richmond 3.5-11.5 2007/2008

Freo 6-13 2009/2010

Saints 5.5-11 2002/2003

Now it's easy to go back now and make cases why some of those happened, but they weren't all evident at the time. There would have been plenty of ladder predictions that didn't factor in such increases in wins from one year to the next. But not only does it happen it's unusual if it doesn't happen. Regularly from year to year teams make such increases. This year Adelaide went from 7 wins to 16 and many will forget that we finished ahead of them on the ladder in 2011.

With a healthy list, a group of 40 players that are buying into the plan, and a bit going right in the midfield, I see no reason why 10-11 wins isn't on the cards with our favourable draw.

[old dee 23,872]

Not withstanding all of your valid points, it's also worth noting that there have been plenty of cases of teams making rapid rises up the ladder in one year.

Brisbane 4 wins to 10 in 2011/12

Carlton 4-10 2007/2008

Collingwood 5-14 2005/2006

Richmond 3.5-11.5 2007/2008

Freo 6-13 2009/2010

Saints 5.5-11 2002/2003

Now it's easy to go back now and make cases why some of those happened, but they weren't all evident at the time. There would have been plenty of ladder predictions that didn't factor in such increases in wins from one year to the next. But not only does it happen it's unusual if it doesn't happen. Regularly from year to year teams make such increases. This year Adelaide went from 7 wins to 16 and many will forget that we finished ahead of them on the ladder in 2011.

With a healthy list, a group of 40 players that are buying into the plan, and a bit going right in the midfield, I see no reason why 10-11 wins isn't on the cards with our favourable draw.

Any thing is possible BH however I find it difficult to believe that we will charge up the ladder in 2013.

It may well be scepticism born out of the experience of the last 48 years.

Just looking at your list I see no example of the MFC doing a monster turn around, unless we are talking about drops down the ladder.

There is always a first time but MFC teams do not perform the miracles you are hoping for, well not in my memory.

So I will stick with a hopeful 8 and you can tell me I was wrong in August 2013

[durango 2,023]

MFC in 1998 what a turn around?

[old dee 23,872]

MFC in 1998 what a turn around?

Correct me if I am wrong but we had not been in the bottom 20% for 6 years?

Or had we ?

[durango 2,023]

The reason the MFC has been down the bottom for the last 6 years comes down to coaches who think that the rebuild of a club is getting a lot of kids and giving them games. Dean Bailey believed in this but I think he also believed in Santa and the tooth fairy.

[old dee 23,872]

The reason the MFC has been down the bottom for the last 6 years comes down to coaches who think that the rebuild of a club is getting a lot of kids and giving them games. Dean Bailey believed in this but I think he also believed in Santa and the tooth fairy.

That may be all true but where did the Dees finish in 1985, 6, and 7?

[rjay 25,093]

They have been copping that prediction forever.

They will be at the pointy end again barring mass injuries.

True, but will Tippett tip the culture the wrong way? Have they pulled the wrong rein? this will be one of the interesting stories of the coming season for me, our rise up the ladder being the most interesting of course.

[Macca 17,034]

Any thing is possible BH however I find it difficult to believe that we will charge up the ladder in 2013.

It may well be scepticism born out of the experience of the last 48 years.

Just looking at your list I see no example of the MFC doing a monster turn around, unless we are talking about drops down the ladder.

There is always a first time but MFC teams do not perform the miracles you are hoping for, well not in my memory.

So I will stick with a hopeful 8 and you can tell me I was wrong in August 2013

Old dee , I reckon our improvement will rest with how much of our list are prepared to 'buy in' or get on the 'same page' as our coach . There is enough talent there to win 10+ games .

I was quite sceptical about our game style last season (esp the boundary hugging bit) but I'm now starting to accept that our perceived 'negative' way of attacking was a bi-product of Neeld having to teach a lot our players 'accountable' footy . It's generally accepted that our level of accountable footy was deplorable before the new régime was appointed .

Let's face it , Neeld and Bailey are polar opposites and it's no surprise (in hindsight) that many of our list last season just couldn't adjust to the ways of the new coaching staff . 15 of last years list are now gone and you'd hope that the 30 odd that have remained will now know where they stand and will (hopefully) know what is required to be part of a winning team . The recruits that we've brought in will (by and large) not have learnt too many bad habits so at least Neeld and co. won't have to re-teach them .

We may end up playing a bit of an ugly style at times but that 'ugly' style is becoming more and more prevalent in today's footy and has to be accepted whether we like it or not .

10 wins is a realistic aim (especially with our draw) . Any more than that is a 'stretch' but you never know in sport .

Edited December 17, 2012 by Macca

[Dr. Gonzo 24,305]

That may be all true but where did the Dees finish in 1985, 6, and 7?

1995 we just missed finals, 1996 & 1997 were horrible years think we won the spoon in 1997 then made prelim in 1998. We also had a poor finish in 1999 then made the GF the next year.

We also boomeranged from a poor finish in 1993 (10th? albeit with a 50% winning record) to a prelim in 1994 and then of course there were the 2001-2006 yo-yo years under Daniher although admittedly we didn't rise to top 4 during those years.

And of course we went from a poor finish in 1953 to GF the next year but that's all ancient history now.