WELCOME TO THE MELBOURNE FOOTBALL CLUB - JACK VINEY

[Guest José Mourinho]

I deal directly with key club people and they have told me. Surely you don't expect me to reveal who?

I'm telling you this is the case. Believe it or not.

Fair enough.

If that is the case, then we'll do well out of this regardless.

[old55 23,597]

OK I'll put up ...

With acknowledgement to 1858 that the AFL might not approve the trades ...

Here's offers too good to refuse:

Our mid 1st round compo pick 13 to GWS for their 2nd round pick 23 and their 4th round pick 59

Our 3rd round pick 43 to GC for their 4th round pick 60

That's a nett for us of:

In: 3, 23, 59, 60

Out: 13, 25 (Viney), 43

Gives us 3, 4, 23, Viney, 59, 60 in place of Viney, 4, 13, 25, 43, 61

[Forest Demon 4,681]

This thread is getting ridiculous. For me it is purely as simple as ranking what we think Jack Viney is worth and not allowing us to get shafted by the bidding process.

Also, we have played 4 rounds, things change a lot throughout a season of football, I can almost guarantee there will be changes near the bottom of the ladder and therefore the draft order. Let's just have this conversation in September. Who knows, we might finish stone cold last and get picks 1, 2, 12, 25 (Viney).

[olisik 4,060]

What is everyones thoughts on taking Viney at #2 if his worth 5-10?

Do you guys actually think his old man would entertain the idea of not taking him? Tough gig for old man Viney this year possibly, hard calls may need to be made. Could come down to family vs mfc for him.

[The Chazz 4,077]

desperate for "Dislike" button

You've posted this one above...

OK I'll put up ...

With acknowledgement to 1858 that the AFL might not approve the trades ...

Here's offers too good to refuse:

Our mid 1st round compo pick 13 to GWS for their 2nd round pick 23 and their 4th round pick 59

Our 3rd round pick 43 to GC for their 4th round pick 60

That's a nett for us of:

In: 3, 23, 59, 60

Out: 13, 25 (Viney), 43

Gives us 3, 4, 23, Viney, 59, 60 in place of Viney, 4, 13, 25, 43, 61

Then followed it up with this one? FMD Old55, you are the exact shadow jumper I'm talking about. You have far too much time on your hands if you've sat down and tried to work out the best case scenario. I'll make it a lot easier for you, and will take a fraction of the time...

As it stands now, Viney is ranked between 5-15. Whitfield is a standout at Pick 1. GWS will not "force us" to use pick 3 on Viney (unless he is ranked higher by draft time), as there is a great deal of risk in that decision, most obvious is the fact that if we aren't willing to use Pick 3 on Jack, they are bound to use Pick 1 = losing the opportunity to draft Whitfield.

GWS level of threat = low.

Gold Coast on the other hand have a bit more thinking to do. Who is currently rated the Number 2 pick? It will be up to them to decide if they believe Viney is worth more than the potential Pick 2. If he isn't, they will not risk missing out on the 2nd best player in the country.

GC level of threat = low.

Old55, I'll spell this out pretty clear for you, and I would imagine the MFC are fully aware of this. IF we finish 16th (highly likely), we have 2 teams that could potentially "force us" to use Pick 3 on Jack. Both those Clubs will need to make very important decisions about what is best for their Club. Do they take the best available player at their first selection, or do they try and shaft the MFC with the risk of them having to use their first selection on Viney. If you have a good think about it, you will know what the answer is.

BUT, just in case their is still some confusion, and I'm sure this us the bit the MFC is fully aware of, all it would take is for Jack to be a little bit sheltered from things too external for the rest of the season, to put further doubts in GWS & GC's minds. Jack's not playing the U18 comp, he is playing the school boys one, will play the state titles, and maybe a couple of games for Casey. I find it interesting that he is playing the school boys comp rather than the standard TAC Cup season (is that what it's still called?!), maybe that's the first decision from the Club to keep him out of the public eye.

If the draft experts, ie Emma Q, at the end of the year rate Jack between a 1-5 pick, I'll accept that we will most likely use our Pick 3. If there are 2 clear standouts, and Jack isn't one, we should be able to do whatever we can to ensure we use our 2nd round pick on him. I'd like to think the Club is doing everything it can (without making it obvious) to ensure that Jack isn't rated in the Top 5.

[old55 23,597]

Then followed it up with this one? FMD Old55, you are the exact shadow jumper I'm talking about. You have far too much time on your hands if you've sat down and tried to work out the best case scenario. I'll make it a lot easier for you, and will take a fraction of the time...

You're living in dream land if you think we won't take Viney with whatever pick we're forced to, and that Sheedy and Allen won't force us to use pick 3 unless we give them a reason otherwise.

btw, I can even think and chew gum at the same time!

[The Chazz 4,077]

You're living in dream land if you think we won't take Viney with whatever pick we're forced to, and that Sheedy and Allen won't force us to use pick 3 unless we give them a reason otherwise.

btw, I can even think and chew gum at the same time!

You're living in dream land if you think Sheedy will force us to take a potential pick 5-15* with our Pick 3. There is too much risk from their side.

* It wouldn't be that hard from the MFC's point of view to ensure that JV is rated a 5-15 pick.

[old55 23,597]

You're living in dream land if you think Sheedy will force us to take a potential pick 5-15* with our Pick 3. There is too much risk from their side.

* It wouldn't be that hard from the MFC's point of view to ensure that JV is rated a 5-15 pick.

''That's a good start. And it will be interesting to call out Jack's name, for sure. I'm not sure it's ever happened before, so it will be a nice moment. But for him, it just gets started after that.''

Read more: http://www.theage.co...l#ixzz1sdb8iTiy

There's no risk from their side - we'll take him with pick 3 if we're forced to - we know that, they know that, but apparently some here don't know that.

[The Chazz 4,077]

''That's a good start. And it will be interesting to call out Jack's name, for sure. I'm not sure it's ever happened before, so it will be a nice moment. But for him, it just gets started after that.''

Read more: http://www.theage.co...l#ixzz1sdb8iTiy

There's no risk from their side - we'll take him with pick 3 if we're forced to - we know that, they know that, but apparently some here don't know that.

I might as well talk to the brick wall next to me.

The only way we will take him with Pick 3 is if GWS or GC believe he is worth risking their Pick 1 or 2 on him. We make sure that they don't want to take the risk. It's a lot easier than trying to work our which of our 15 picks we're going to trade with GWS and which 11 picks we'll get in return so that they have a slightly better deal than us, meaning they won't shaft us, blah, blah blah.

Old55, please, for your own safety, go for a walk along the beach today, don't open any more threads about Jack Viney or any threads about draft picks etc until the end of September.

[mauriesy 7,298]

Can someone please provide me good evidence of where Viney is rated? Figures like "5-15" or "late first round" seem to be bandied round at will, when previously there is plenty of evidence that he is a 1-5 pick. I just wonder whether these ratings are being changed and concocted to suit hypothetical drafting arguments, rather than reflecting reality.

If Viney is a 1-10 pick, and GWS/GCS force our hand, we take him at 3. Simple as that. I can't see any other option given that the club thinks he's good, we've committed and he trains with us. He's a tough bugger and exactly what the midfield needs.

Edited April 26, 2012 by maurie

[The Chazz 4,077]

Can someone please provide me good evidence of where Viney is rated? Figures like "5-15" or "late first round" seem to be bandied round at will, when previously there is plenty of evidence that he is a 1-5 pick. I just wonder whether these ratings are being changed and concocted to suit hypothetical drafting arguments, rather than reflecting reality.

If Viney is a 1-10 pick, and GWS/GCS force our hand, we take him at 3. Simple as that. I can't see any other option given that the club thinks he's good, we've committed and he trains with us. He's a tough bugger and exactly what the midfield needs.

Maurie, the only way GWS/GC will force our hand is if they believe he is potentially worth a 1-5 pick. They will not force us to take him if he is rated at 5+, because there is far too much risk for them.

Again, the MFC need to ensure this happens. Obviously I'm of the opposite view of some on this thread - I believe we have got GWS & GC by the balls, because we can actually control what the experts think Viney is worth.

Here's the question that will make it clearer, would GWS be willing to risk losing Whitfield just to try and force us to take Viney with Pick 3? Who is a better player - Whitfield or Viney?

[Robbie57 2,020]

Something i dont think has been considered in the thread.

If he is say about pick 5 and we know there is virtualy no science in picks after 1 or 2 just a lot of luck on how they apply themseves or develop, isn't the deciding factor that we have had him in our system for almost 2 years whilst the other draftees are going into the system cold. This must change the draft dynamic. In effect we have had the chance to get 2 pre-seasons into him and as the article notes he knows what all the meetings are about and the game plan etc.

In effect it makes his pick comparable to a player picked a year or two ago.

We know there is no way we get pick #1 this year even if we call the bluff. Best we get is the #2.

Now is that worth letting go of 2 years of development for a #2?

One of those years under Misson and Neeld?

I doubt it.

What we are really getting is a high draft pick with a significant head start.

[Cheesecake 92]

You've posted this one above...

Then followed it up with this one? FMD Old55, you are the exact shadow jumper I'm talking about. You have far too much time on your hands if you've sat down and tried to work out the best case scenario. I'll make it a lot easier for you, and will take a fraction of the time...

As it stands now, Viney is ranked between 5-15. Whitfield is a standout at Pick 1. GWS will not "force us" to use pick 3 on Viney (unless he is ranked higher by draft time), as there is a great deal of risk in that decision, most obvious is the fact that if we aren't willing to use Pick 3 on Jack, they are bound to use Pick 1 = losing the opportunity to draft Whitfield.

GWS level of threat = low.

Gold Coast on the other hand have a bit more thinking to do. Who is currently rated the Number 2 pick? It will be up to them to decide if they believe Viney is worth more than the potential Pick 2. If he isn't, they will not risk missing out on the 2nd best player in the country.

GC level of threat = low.

Old55, I'll spell this out pretty clear for you, and I would imagine the MFC are fully aware of this. IF we finish 16th (highly likely), we have 2 teams that could potentially "force us" to use Pick 3 on Jack. Both those Clubs will need to make very important decisions about what is best for their Club. Do they take the best available player at their first selection, or do they try and shaft the MFC with the risk of them having to use their first selection on Viney. If you have a good think about it, you will know what the answer is.

BUT, just in case their is still some confusion, and I'm sure this us the bit the MFC is fully aware of, all it would take is for Jack to be a little bit sheltered from things too external for the rest of the season, to put further doubts in GWS & GC's minds. Jack's not playing the U18 comp, he is playing the school boys one, will play the state titles, and maybe a couple of games for Casey. I find it interesting that he is playing the school boys comp rather than the standard TAC Cup season (is that what it's still called?!), maybe that's the first decision from the Club to keep him out of the public eye.

If the draft experts, ie Emma Q, at the end of the year rate Jack between a 1-5 pick, I'll accept that we will most likely use our Pick 3. If there are 2 clear standouts, and Jack isn't one, we should be able to do whatever we can to ensure we use our 2nd round pick on him. I'd like to think the Club is doing everything it can (without making it obvious) to ensure that Jack isn't rated in the Top 5.

Superb summary, Billy.

You're living in dream land if you think we won't take Viney with whatever pick we're forced to, and that Sheedy and Allen won't force us to use pick 3 unless we give them a reason otherwise.

btw, I can even think and chew gum at the same time!

With respect, Old, I think you are living in dream land if you think GWS or GC will risk their preferred player (should there be a standout top 2), just to stuff us over (should JV be rated 5 to 15).

As I stated in an earlier thread, should this ridiculous scenario eventuate, and we call their bluff and force them to use their number 1 pick on a 5-15 player who really does not want to move to Syd, and really wants to play for the Dees (and may look to return here any way in can in a couple of years), I look forward to Grubby or Sheeds coming out to explain to their supports and football public how they have just royally screwed up their most important draft decision for that year.

We just have to create some doubt in their minds that we will call their bluff. That's all.

[mauriesy 7,298]

I didn't ask what they, or anyone, thinks GWS believe. I asked what he is actually worth, by good talent assessment. That is an important question.

If he is worth pick 1-10, all talk about shenanigans and deals are moot. We select him with pick 3. Especially since we've committed to him.

[Cheesecake 92]

Something i dont think has been considered in the thread.

If he is say about pick 5 and we know there is virtualy no science in picks after 1 or 2 just a lot of luck on how they apply themseves or develop, isn't the deciding factor that we have had him in our system for almost 2 years whilst the other draftees are going into the system cold. This must change the draft dynamic. In effect we have had the chance to get 2 pre-seasons into him and as the article notes he knows what all the meetings are about and the game plan etc.

In effect it makes his pick comparable to a player picked a year or two ago.

We know there is no way we get pick #1 this year even if we call the bluff. Best we get is the #2.

Now is that worth letting go of 2 years of development for a #2?

One of those years under Misson and Neeld?

I doubt it.

What we are really getting is a high draft pick with a significant head start.

I think pretty much everyone here agrees that if he is rated around 5, we will happily take him at 3 (cause we will have pick 4 as well, which we can use for the third best player). It's if he is rated around the second half of the first round (like some journos are now saying), that it gets tricky.

[rpfc 28,468]

I might as well talk to the brick wall next to me.

The only way we will take him with Pick 3 is if GWS or GC believe he is worth risking their Pick 1 or 2 on him. We make sure that they don't want to take the risk. It's a lot easier than trying to work our which of our 15 picks we're going to trade with GWS and which 11 picks we'll get in return so that they have a slightly better deal than us, meaning they won't shaft us, blah, blah blah.

Old55, please, for your own safety, go for a walk along the beach today, don't open any more threads about Jack Viney or any threads about draft picks etc until the end of September.

Can you just cool down the condescension, Billy.

Old is right anyway, so I don't know why you are being like this. A club will make us use the highest pick they can make us use because they know we will accept it.

We are committed and that is that.

It's not a great game of cards we are playing but we saw Adelaide chatting him up and we swooped and decided not to play cards.

If we finish with Pick 3 - which I believe is probable at this stage (groan) then we will have to do two 'Veale Deals' with the two clubs below us.

That is the only way we get a 'Live' Pick 3.

[timD 994]

Guys, everybody knows we will take Viney. For GWS to worry, they'd need some doubt. They also have lots of talent already. They'd get viney - a tought kid that we'd put 2 years into. They'd still do alright. There is very little risk for them and a relatively larger risk for us. There is no doubt and for them little to lose. Billy, I think that you are completely wrong with how you balance these issues.

The other issue is urgency. We need to find talent fast because we risk having a black hole of leadership/experience. We are already on the way. I can easily imagine a scenario where scully leaving is typical: we get draft picks, they show a bit and leave because the club loses all the time and have no experienced role models that are any good. WE become an incubator for other teams. Hell, we are just about there now.

[The Chazz 4,077]

I didn't ask what they, or anyone, thinks GWS believe. I asked what he is actually worth, by good talent assessment. That is an important question.

If he is worth pick 1-10, all talk about shenanigans and deals are moot. We select him with pick 3. Especially since we've committed to him.

Maurie - I think it was the Hearld Sun article (that started the shadow-jumping yesterday) that stated one recruiter believing he was in the 2nd half of the first round, but then another recruiter having him in the top 5 or so.

Reality is, it is always hard at this early stage to get a true indication, as there are so many variables. One thing is for sure though, regardless of what Jack needs to particpate in over the coming months, it should be heavily monitored by the MFC, and the club should ensure that his "asking price" is not as high as it could be.

[rpfc 28,468]

Daisycutter - I can't find any great explanation of how the process works, my assumption was that the meeting went by players and not picks.

And that is to say: 'I have a bid for Daniher' says one club, they move through the teams in order and then the club with F/S rights makes their decision.

The reason I have come to this conclusion is because all we would need to do if teams couldn't bid twice is find another F/S prospect as good as Daniher and GWS and GC would make their bids on them - leaving us to get Viney in the second round.

That is why I think it is done by player and that teams can bid on more than one player with the same pick assuming they lost out on the previous player.

[The Chazz 4,077]

Can you just cool down the condescension, Billy.

Old is right anyway, so I don't know why you are being like this. A club will make us use the highest pick they can make us use because they know we will accept it.

We are committed and that is that.

It's not a great game of cards we are playing but we saw Adelaide chatting him up and we swooped and decided not to play cards.

If we finish with Pick 3 - which I believe is probable at this stage (groan) then we will have to do two 'Veale Deals' with the two clubs below us.

That is the only way we get a 'Live' Pick 3.

Wow, pots and kettles there.

Anyway, we are committed, exactly right RP, but I'm quite sure none of us have seen the contract and certain terms about conditions of recruitment. For example, what if he breaks his leg at school, or suffers from chronic fatigue-type conditions? Are we really going to put our own balls in a vice? I would expect that there are certain conditions, not a "get-out" clause, but something for us to fall back on if need be.

Perhaps I'm being too naive (after all, I did take $cumbag on his word), but if we have Pick 3, unless the teams with Pick 1 & 2 believe Jack is rated between 1-10, why would they risk it? I keep asking this question, but I'm yet to hear an answer that gives me anything to change my mind about.

[rpfc 28,468]

Perhaps I'm being too naive (after all, I did take $cumbag on his word), but if we have Pick 3, unless the teams with Pick 1 & 2 believe Jack is rated between 1-10, why would they risk it? I keep asking this question, but I'm yet to hear an answer that gives me anything to change my mind about.

They don't have to believe he is top 3.

All they have to believe is that we will take him at 3.

To GWS and GC (and all non-expansion clubs) this isn't about getting Viney, it's about making us pay the premium price for Viney.

And we will pay whatever price we have to - we are committed.

'Veale Deals' for both or Viney at 3 - these are the options.

[old55 23,597]

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/afl/expert-opinion/gws-could-ruin-melbournes-jack-viney-draft-plans/story-fncqi979-1226338135854

It was a talking point among recruiters on the recent AIS Academy trip to Europe. It is clear that every other club wants GWS or Gold Coast to bid, forcing the Dees' hand.

"I cannot imagine any condition which would cause a ship to founder. I cannot conceive of any vital disaster happening to this vessel. Modern ship building has gone beyond that."

-Captain Smith, Commander of Titanic

[Guest José Mourinho]

Maurie - I think it was the Hearld Sun article (that started the shadow-jumping yesterday) that stated one recruiter believing he was in the 2nd half of the first round, but then another recruiter having him in the top 5 or so.

Reality is, it is always hard at this early stage to get a true indication, as there are so many variables. One thing is for sure though, regardless of what Jack needs to particpate in over the coming months, it should be heavily monitored by the MFC, and the club should ensure that his "asking price" is not as high as it could be.

An unnamed recruiter has him outside the top 5, in an article written by bloody MARK STEVENS who gets his info from demonland and bigfooty...

You do realise that without the doubt over him being worth a top 5 pick, there is no story?

It's a non-story for anyone outside MFC anyway.

[The Chazz 4,077]

http://www.heraldsun...9-1226338135854

"I cannot imagine any condition which would cause a ship to founder. I cannot conceive of any vital disaster happening to this vessel. Modern ship building has gone beyond that."

-Captain Smith, Commander of Titanic

Of course the talk from other Clubs is for GWS/GC to force our hand. They know what position we can potentially be in - 3 live picks in the first round and Viney with our first pick in the 2nd round. In this draft, what recruiter/team would want an opposing team to have that scenario?

Perhaps some of us need to watch the movie Sea Biscuit. Wrap Jack up in cotton wool during the day, keep the media waiting, then when they go home to bed, unleash the beast on the track to get him to the standard we need, without raising his profile any higher than we need to.

Edited April 27, 2012 by billy2803

[mauriesy 7,298]

If Stevens had read bigfooty, he would have probably seen the early 2012 draft assessment from 'Knightmare' (who seemingly has a quite good reputation) in which he places Viney easily among the top 10 (from which two, Crouch and O'Meara, went in the mini-draft last year).

"Really competitive and hard inside midfield. Could have joined an AFL club as a 17 year old and been a regular. Not a big fella, but purely and simply he is the hardest player I’ve seen coming through the system and his attack on the ball, attack on the man and aggression on the field is without equal and the big reason why he is such a dominant player already. Wins all the hard, contested ball and as a 17 year old was doing better than most of the 18 year olds who got drafted early, so Melbourne will get very lucky to have young Jack who I’m sure will very quickly become a Mark Neeld favourite. Tackling is excellent. Is a real leader out on the field and is someone who really leads by his actions and hardness at the footy. Really high character guy and hard worker who will put time into his game until he becomes elite. Jack has very clean hands and uses it well by hand consistently. Big time accumulator. Left foot kick, can use his right. Kicking is generally very good and will continue to get better. Speed is good, but not elite. The big strength athletically is his endurance which without seeing any of his testing I suspect would be very, very good because he has such a high work rate."

Later he says "Viney looks like a very top talent in this years draft and I wouldn't be shocked to see him become the best of the lot".

Doesn't sound like a late first-rounder to me.

Standard disclaimer: "Yes, I know it's only bigfooty".

Edited April 27, 2012 by maurie