Roundabout 2004, maybe 2005, Malcolm Blight was co-commentating on a Melbourne game and we were getting flogged (I can't remember against who but it was a shocker, possibly 12 - 15 goals) His response was really penetrating and it has stayed with me as a means of measuring the effectiveness of players.

He said something like, "have a look at all the games the team has played in which they got flogged. If, in each of those games there are a handful of players who always play really badly during a flogging, de-list them" This was part of his reasoning for cleaning out the Cats and Crows when he took over at both clubs.

I am hoping there might be a stats nut somewhere on Demonland who can look back over the Bailey era (in which we have received a heap of floggings) and see if any player always plays badly on those occasions.

I reckon the following names might come up:

Cam Bruce - no need to worry here

Nathan Jones

Russell Robertson - no need to worry here

Aaron Davey - I hope I am wrong.

Any stats fasn want to take up the challenge?

Thoughts?

.

Jack Watts

Just Kidding!

Interesting point. During the floggings one thing I noticed was that Sylvia was often the one who stood up. When we were at our crappiest he was often hurling himself around, crashing packs, taking big marks and in general trying to spark something. Sadly, the team was never able to lift with him.

  On 05/04/2011 at 02:36, Maldonboy38 said:

Aaron Davey - I hope I am wrong.

Not a stats head but he does go missing when we really need him sometimes (or maybe more than sometimes). Great player but not a fan of pressure.

  On 05/04/2011 at 03:42, RalphiusMaximus said:

Interesting point. During the floggings one thing I noticed was that Sylvia was often the one who stood up. When we were at our crappiest he was often hurling himself around, crashing packs, taking big marks and in general trying to spark something. Sadly, the team was never able to lift with him.

I agree with what you say about Sylvia. But as I said in another thread I think he made the critical mistake that caused us to completely unravel against the Hawks. Perhaps that is why we free fell into a bottomless pit. When our die hard type players also make critical errors it becomes a true nightmare.

  On 05/04/2011 at 03:42, RalphiusMaximus said:

Interesting point. During the floggings one thing I noticed was that Sylvia was often the one who stood up. When we were at our crappiest he was often hurling himself around, crashing packs, taking big marks and in general trying to spark something. Sadly, the team was never able to lift with him.

Yup.

There's a handful of players in there that aren't in the group Blight's talking about. Sylvia, Moloney, Grimes, Tappy already... We just need more guys who come in, and show what they're capable of for their whole careers. The truly great players do it from very early on. They show what they are from their first season onwards....

And yes. Watts worries me more and more all the time.

  On 05/04/2011 at 02:36, Maldonboy38 said:

Roundabout 2004, maybe 2005, Malcolm Blight was co-commentating on a Melbourne game and we were getting flogged (I can't remember against who but it was a shocker, possibly 12 - 15 goals) His response was really penetrating and it has stayed with me as a means of measuring the effectiveness of players.

He said something like, "have a look at all the games the team has played in which they got flogged. If, in each of those games there are a handful of players who always play really badly during a flogging, de-list them" This was part of his reasoning for cleaning out the Cats and Crows when he took over at both clubs.

I am hoping there might be a stats nut somewhere on Demonland who can look back over the Bailey era (in which we have received a heap of floggings) and see if any player always plays badly on those occasions.

I reckon the following names might come up:

Cam Bruce - no need to worry hereNathan Jones

Russell Robertson - no need to worry here

Aaron Davey - I hope I am wrong.

Any stats fasn want to take up the challenge?

Thoughts?

.

Bruce finished in the top ten for Melbournes best and fairest between 2001 and 2010 every single year. He won a best and fairest in 2008 in arguably the worst afl side of the decade. Surely he was reasonably consistent. Anyway I would be more concerned with Melbourne players. Moloney seems to be quiet when we play badly, maybe its due to our reliance on him to get so many clearances for us that when he plays poorly it invariably effects the team. With such a young team its too early to determine whether they stand up in defeats. Dunn is always terrible in defeats, Miller was also. Harsh on Robbo i thought. Admittedly im still coming to terms with Robbo being delisted and Brad Miller retained on our list, defies logic really

  On 05/04/2011 at 03:52, Rojik of the Arctic said:

Not a stats head but he does go missing when we really need him sometimes (or maybe more than sometimes). Great player but not a fan of pressure.

I am a big Davey fan however he is a down hill skier.

Very good when he has space but a good close checking opponent takes him out of the game.

  On 05/04/2011 at 04:45, sylvias dukes said:

Bruce finished in the top ten for Melbournes best and fairest between 2001 and 2010 every single year. He won a best and fairest in 2008 in arguably the worst afl side of the decade. Surely he was reasonably consistent. Anyway I would be more concerned with Melbourne players. Moloney seems to be quiet when we play badly, maybe its due to our reliance on him to get so many clearances for us that when he plays poorly it invariably effects the team. With such a young team its too early to determine whether they stand up in defeats. Dunn is always terrible in defeats, Miller was also. Harsh on Robbo i thought. Admittedly im still coming to terms with Robbo being delisted and Brad Miller retained on our list, defies logic really

Absolutely agree that Robbo and Bruce would be on that list. Bruce was no good after he broke his collar-bone, and the fact that he finished in those spots in the B&F that he did just highlights how crap our list was.

Anyway, it is a fantastic post. It also got me thinking about what players you want with you when you're down, and 2 names that spring to my mind that would surprise a number of people would be Rivers and Jones, and I think that's why they continually get a spot in the team. Neither are front runners, they work as hard if they are 10 goals down as they do if they are 10 goals up. yeah, Jones' 2nd half last week wasn't flash according to the stats, but as we keep saying, he wasn't on his own. Where Jones and Riv are a bit unlucky, they aren't always the standout performers in good wins, so they tend to get criticised.

I have great concern that Petterd is going to be on that initial list. Someone/Ricky, please prove me wrong!

  On 05/04/2011 at 03:42, RalphiusMaximus said:

Interesting point. During the floggings one thing I noticed was that Sylvia was often the one who stood up. When we were at our crappiest he was often hurling himself around, crashing packs, taking big marks and in general trying to spark something. Sadly, the team was never able to lift with him.

I would have been happy had Col been appointed captain.

Absolutely amazed he isn't in the leadership team.

I feel he has come a long way over the past few years. Onfield and above his shoulders.

I can easily see Aaron Davey become a sub player quite often.

Aaron can be a true "impact" player. Other Teams have worked him out, so his great kicking skills are not used in a dangerous part of the ground

  On 05/04/2011 at 04:42, Dappa Dan said:

Yup.

There's a handful of players in there that aren't in the group Blight's talking about. Sylvia, Moloney, Grimes, Tappy already... We just need more guys who come in, and show what they're capable of for their whole careers. The truly great players do it from very early on. They show what they are from their first season onwards....

And yes. Watts worries me more and more all the time.

You say Watts worries you and then praise Grimes for standing up in beltings. Im not trying to knock Grimes but his kicking out was a disgrace in the first quarter and general kicking was pretty average on Sunday. Only a young player and will improve and hopefully become an excellent player at Melbourne but just at the moment is the love child. His only played 20 odd games. He has a long way to go, as does Watts who plays a lot harder position against better opposition and i feel is gradually improving. Hopefully they will be great players for the club

Watts is getting there. I maintain the 3 years of football outlook for a key-position player. See Jack Riewoldt. And honestly, we can't count the 2009 season for Watts - he was at school, not training properly at all. Hell, he's only two months older than Tom Scully. Thus, good signs this year - such as the pack-mark he took on Sunday - are what we want. 2012 he should start to really hit his straps though otherwise I WILL be worried.

Couple that worry me though:

- Warnock (do not rate him)

- Bartram

- Davey is beginning to worry me.

That said, I don't know about cutting players based on that just yet. Honestly, I think Davey is one of those players that will perform far better as the kids get better. Right now, he's attracting the heaviest of the tagging, but when you have Gysberts/Scully/Trengove/Sylvia becoming your dangermen rather than him he'll be able to get his creativity and silk on. However, at 27 I just don't know whether he will still be playing by the 2014 time frame - he'll be 31 in 2014 and in the twilight of his career at best.

  On 05/04/2011 at 04:42, Dappa Dan said:

And yes. Watts worries me more and more all the time.

Pretty hard for a young key forward to exert real influence in a team getting flogged... And after 20 games.

  On 05/04/2011 at 08:37, Deemolition said:

Pretty hard for a young key forward to exert real influence in a team getting flogged... And after 20 games.

Don't bring logic into this Deemolition.

  On 05/04/2011 at 03:52, Rojik of the Arctic said:

Not a stats head but he does go missing when we really need him sometimes (or maybe more than sometimes). Great player but not a fan of pressure.

Can you be a great player but not be a fan of pressure?

Davey needs to find another gear when the going gets tough or he faces an uncertain future.

There seems to be a growing consensus about this.

dont forget, flash came off the rookie list as a forward pocket. whilst id love to see him back there, he is currently too valuable in the midfield.

  On 05/04/2011 at 08:55, Range Rover said:

Can you be a great player but not be a fan of pressure?

Davey needs to find another gear when the going gets tough or he faces an uncertain future.

There seems to be a growing consensus about this.

Davey should be playing the role of Alan Didak (only Better) through the midfield into the forward line)

We still need work done to the backline-it is far from settled, that i did realize on sunday night.

  On 05/04/2011 at 04:53, 36DD said:

I would have been happy had Col been appointed captain.

Absolutely amazed he isn't in the leadership team

Leadership isn't only about the on-field stuff.

  On 05/04/2011 at 04:53, 36DD said:

I feel he has come a long way over the past few years. Onfield and above his shoulders.

For what it's worth, I'm pretty sure the leadership group punished him recently for being out late the night before training or whatever.

  On 05/04/2011 at 04:59, sylvias dukes said:

You say Watts worries you and then praise Grimes for standing up in beltings. Im not trying to knock Grimes but his kicking out was a disgrace in the first quarter and general kicking was pretty average on Sunday. Only a young player and will improve and hopefully become an excellent player at Melbourne but just at the moment is the love child. His only played 20 odd games. He has a long way to go, as does Watts who plays a lot harder position against better opposition and i feel is gradually improving. Hopefully they will be great players for the club

I missed half the first quarter - are you saying Grimes' kicking was worse in the first quarter than the rest of the game? My god it must have been bloody awful - I saw him turn it over countless times in the other 3!! I reckon we keep him in but we need a plan for his disposal ie kick it to space in front of a leading Melbourne player and not try to "negotiate" through a crowded back half. I know its not easy but he's letting us down with his poor kicking / decision making.

  On 05/04/2011 at 03:52, Rojik of the Arctic said:

Not a stats head but he does go missing when we really need him sometimes (or maybe more than sometimes). Great player but not a fan of pressure.

Just as long as we are not confusing "the chicken and the egg" here.

Does Davey play badly because the team is playing badly ............. or is he such an important player that when he has a bad day the rest of the team falls into a hole?

  On 06/04/2011 at 05:11, hoopla said:

Just as long as we are not confusing "the chicken and the egg" here.

Does Davey play badly because the team is playing badly ............. or is he such an important player that when he has a bad day the rest of the team falls into a hole?

Davey is targeted as our quarterback. This has been happening over the past 2 1/2 seasons. He does not handle a hard tag well at all. If someone is going to do this we might as well use him in the middle where he has others around to help him. We really miss scully and McKenzie.

Given the importance I place on grunt players, I can't see all of Davey, Bennell, Jetta, Morton and any other slight player I can't think of at the moment, existing together in a premiership-challenging side. Big match footy is all about body-banging. You have too many lightweights (in the defined sense) in your side and you will not win a premiership.

  On 05/04/2011 at 04:45, sylvias dukes said:

Bruce finished in the top ten for Melbournes best and fairest between 2001 and 2010 every single year. He won a best and fairest in 2008 in arguably the worst afl side of the decade. Surely he was reasonably consistent. Anyway I would be more concerned with Melbourne players. Moloney seems to be quiet when we play badly, maybe its due to our reliance on him to get so many clearances for us that when he plays poorly it invariably effects the team. With such a young team its too early to determine whether they stand up in defeats. Dunn is always terrible in defeats, Miller was also. Harsh on Robbo i thought. Admittedly im still coming to terms with Robbo being delisted and Brad Miller retained on our list, defies logic really

i always remember how Robertson stood up in the 2000 Grand Final and flew the flag when others were bystanders.