Brock McLean has left the building

[rpfc 27,505]

Just adding to what H. said - if we get a decent KPF at 11 like so many on here think we need, we will not be pushing back our chances of a flag from approx. 2013 onwards, in fact we would be bringing it forward.

We have only sacrificed short term results, and I am all for that if it goes toward the greater goal.

[JACKATTACK 17]

You reckon McLean's so good that we'll struggle to find someone at pick 11 that is equal/better than him?

I would go the opposite and say that we're more than likely to find someone equal/better. McLean's usefulness was low at Melbourne. Moloney does his role, and does it better.

I doubt we'll draft someone who's slow and stocky.

Aplogies for re-posting this.

Pick 11 for the last 22 years:

2008 Steele Sidebottom

2007 Patrick Veszpremi

2006 Andrejs Everitt

2005 Shaun Higgins

2004 Adam Thomson

2003 Beau Waters

2002 Jason Winderlich

2001 Richard Cole

2000 Trent Sporn

1999 Darren Glass

1998 Lenny Hayes

1997 Jason Saddington

1996 Brent Grgic

1995 Donald Cockatoo-Collins

1994 Damien Ryan

1993 Brad Johnson

1992 Jonathon Robran

1991 Leigh Willison

1990 Danny Sexton

1989 Darren Smith

1988 Mark Bayliss

1987 Tim McNeil

1986 Jason Taylor

Find 11 here that are better than Brock, and then we're at even odds to get value for the trade.

In a weak draft

I don't know how many, but there will be some very good players picked after 11 in this draft. Obviously we need to back BP to draft well.

We don't get the players picked after pick 11, we get the player we picked at 11. And we're one of the least resourced recruiting departments around, I have nothing against BP but chances are he won't find one.

Edited September 25, 2009 by JACKATTACK

[e25 5]

We don't get the players picked after pick 11, we get the player we picked at 11. And we're one of the least resourced recruiting departments around, I have nothing against BP but chances are he won't find one.

Yeah, after BP's crap result at the last draft... oh. Wait.

Seriously, have a little faith, and don't quote all the players picked at 11, quote all the players pick at and AFTER 11, to show what we will have a chance at getting.

I have faith in BP

[the_russian 17]

Find 11 here that are better than Brock, and then we're at even odds to get value for the trade.

We don't need to find 11 players better than him, we only need to find one.

And comparisons like this are silly, clubs who have picked these players at this stage may have been after a particular type of player, like us with Luke Molan, albiet an earlier pick, but we bypassed others to pick for needs at the time

[Old Gregg 1]

Aplogies for re-posting this.

Pick 11 for the last 22 years:

2008 Steele Sidebottom

2007 Patrick Veszpremi

2006 Andrejs Everitt

2005 Shaun Higgins

2004 Adam Thomson

2003 Beau Waters

2002 Jason Winderlich

2001 Richard Cole

2000 Trent Sporn

1999 Darren Glass

1998 Lenny Hayes

1997 Jason Saddington

1996 Brent Grgic

1995 Donald Cockatoo-Collins

1994 Damien Ryan

1993 Brad Johnson

1992 Jonathon Robran

1991 Leigh Willison

1990 Danny Sexton

1989 Darren Smith

1988 Mark Bayliss

1987 Tim McNeil

1986 Jason Taylor

Find 11 here that are better than Brock, and then we're at even odds to get value for the trade.

In a weak draft

We don't get the players picked after pick 11, we get the player we picked at 11. And we're one of the least resourced recruiting departments around, I have nothing against BP but chances are he won't find one.

What's the point of putting that statistic up?

Instead of evaluating previous years' drafts, evaluate this year's draft, as the 2009 draft is the one in which we have pick 11. Why don't you actually go through this year's draft pool or some of the phantom drafts, look at what players will be available, and then make your judgement.

BTW I'd be happy with Johnnson, Hayes, Glass, Higgins or Sidebottom.

[JACKATTACK 17]

What's the point of putting that statistic up?

Instead of evaluating previous years' drafts, evaluate this year's draft, as the 2009 draft is the one in which we have pick 11. Why don't you actually go through this year's draft pool or some of the phantom drafts, look at what players will be available, and then make your judgement.

BTW I'd be happy with Johnnson, Hayes, Glass, Higgins or Sidebottom.

What's the point? The point is that we all rate Mclean differently, some would have him worse than 5 of those players some maybe more, by providing evidence I allow you to make your own judgement on the percieved value of Pick 11 and remove my own bias.

Why don't I go through this year's draft pool? Because no-one knows how good they are, not anyone here and not even the players themselves. Is Brock Mclean better than Panos? Is he better than Jetta or Butcher? Will those players even be available at 11?

The way I see it is, you can ignore the post if you think Mclean is worse than half those players. Or you think that by picking a player because they are of the type we need we will outperform the market in terms of value to the club.

You named 5/22? that's a long way from half, you must really rate our recruiters.

Edited September 25, 2009 by JACKATTACK

[beelzebub 22,225]

To be honest I dont think you can fixate wholy and fastly on pick 11 as being the litmus. Many great players have come along at much pater and some duds earlier. To suggest its more than half of all picks 11 or bust cant really hold.

What we now get is another pick to shore up our prospects at a time when any picks are in short supply. Just ask half the other clubs as to how they see the next 5 years !!

We now have greater trade currency and/or draft potential.. all of this might well put us in touch with a player who will more than compensate for the loss of an adequate if not consistently brilliant player.

Its more about the mix than any one player in particular.. no man is an island and no player is a team!!

[Disco Demons 92]

What makes me laugh is people making comment of Brock must have gotten sick of DB's coaching style of Tanking tactics....and now Brock is going to play with the Blues....umm....I think you'll find the Blues taught us everything there is to Tanking!!!

[Hannabal 4]

We don't get the players picked after pick 11, we get the player we picked at 11. And we're one of the least resourced recruiting departments around, I have nothing against BP but chances are he won't find one.

As others have mentioned, judge the entire pool from every draft from pick 11 onwards. We get the first choice of every player that's available after pick 10. We have to be good enough to make the pick count. There will be some very good players chosen post 11, ergo, we have the chance to get it right.

I'd rather that chance than to hold on to a very well paid player that is serviceable at best. You, of course, can please yourself.

That said, you better start getting used to it.

[BLWNBA 353]

Apologies if this has already been reported or posted, but I've heard (only through word off mouth) that we could possibley recieve Yarrin & pick in exchange for Mclean. Anyone see any merit to this deal? And could this actually be true?

[e25 5]

Apologies if this has already been reported or posted, but I've heard (only through word off mouth) that we could possibley recieve Yarrin & pick in exchange for Mclean. Anyone see any merit to this deal? And could this actually be true?

I really doubt that they are going to go and start trying to re-negotiate terms after the deal has already been agreed in principle.

Its just not good business at all.

[Old Gregg 1]

Apologies if this has already been reported or posted, but I've heard (only through word off mouth) that we could possibley recieve Yarrin & pick in exchange for Mclean. Anyone see any merit to this deal? And could this actually be true?

Yarran doesn't appeal to me really....if it was him and pick 11 though, I'd take it.

Any lower than first round, no.

anyway, I couldn't see Yarran being traded unless it was to a WA club

Edited September 25, 2009 by Stop: Jurrahtime

[JACKATTACK 17]

As others have mentioned, judge the entire pool from every draft from pick 11 onwards. We get the first choice of every player that's available after pick 10. We have to be good enough to make the pick count. There will be some very good players chosen post 11, ergo, we have the chance to get it right.

I'd rather that chance than to hold on to a very well paid player that is serviceable at best. You, of course, can please yourself.

That said, you better start getting used to it.

Increasing the sample size to include all players pick 11 and later instead of just pick 11 will

1: increase the total number of players better than Mclean (good players) and

2: increase by far more the total number of players who are worse (bad players).

Overall the percentage of good players would decrease. I guess you could try and draft only good players?

Apologies if this has already been reported or posted, but I've heard (only through word off mouth) that we could possibley recieve Yarrin & pick in exchange for Mclean. Anyone see any merit to this deal? And could this actually be true?

We would need to make room for another player on the list and that is getting tough to do at the moment. Good deal though, 11 and Yarran for brock, even if 11 is only half a chance.

Edited September 25, 2009 by JACKATTACK

[jabberwocky 2,301]

Increasing the sample size to include all players pick 11 and later instead of just pick 11 will

1: increase the total number of players better than Mclean (good players) and

2: increase by far more the total number of players who are worse (bad players).

Overall the percentage of good players would decrease. I guess you could try and draft only good players?

We would need to make room for another player on the list and that is getting tough to do at the moment. Good deal though, 11 and Yarran for brock, even if 11 is only half a chance.

No JA I think he means yarran instead of 11.

[e25 5]

Everything about AFL football is taking chances.

Keeping Brock is taking a chance he won't have a career-ending knee injury Round 1 next year.

There are risks involved in everything.

But you have to back your recruiting staff to make the right decision with that pick 11.

Its no use managing your list in a certain way because you don't trust your recruiting department to be able to make the right decision.

If you don't, then its time to find a new recruiter.

And their track record from last season, although its too early to really tell, seems pretty good to me

[JACKATTACK 17]

No JA I think he means yarran instead of 11.

Yes, I guess 11 and Yarran would be a bit much. An interesting question might be: Which would you prefer, Yarran or pick 11?

[e25 5]

Yes, I guess 11 and Yarran would be a bit much. An interesting question might be: Which would you prefer, Yarran or pick 11?

Pick 11.

Yarran is an Andrew Lovett waiting to happen...

[JACKATTACK 17]

Everything about AFL football is taking chances.

Keeping Brock is taking a chance he won't have a career-ending knee injury Round 1 next year.

There are risks involved in everything.

But you have to back your recruiting staff to make the right decision with that pick 11.

Its no use managing your list in a certain way because you don't trust your recruiting department to be able to make the right decision.

If you don't, then its time to find a new recruiter.

And their track record from last season, although its too early to really tell, seems pretty good to me

Agreed, everything is about taking chances, but as a listy manager you must be constantly evaluating a player's relative value and risk to the club against the upcoming draft's potential and risk. I just don't think we got enough value.

As for our recruiting dpeartment's track record, we are way too early to make that call. Jurrah was a great move but I am yet to see anything else to make me think one way or the other about their performace last year.

[Hannabal 4]

I just don't think we got enough value.

You severely overrate McLean as a footballer.

[e25 5]

You severely overrate McLean as a footballer.

Yeah, I'd have to agree.

I did too for a while, but I realised I was just hoping he was better because I felt we had so much invested in him as one of key players.

[JACKATTACK 17]

You severely overrate McLean as a footballer.

How many of the 22 pick 11s do you rate as better than Mclean?

and

Is that enough for you to be comfortable?

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

You reckon McLean's so good that we'll struggle to find someone at pick 11 that is equal/better than him?

I would go the opposite and say that we're more than likely to find someone equal/better. McLean's usefulness was low at Melbourne. Moloney does his role, and does it better.

I doubt we'll draft someone who's slow and stocky.

Yes, we will struggle, if you believe Brock will be as good as he was before his ankle, or even better than that. If it was last year's draft, it'd be a different story, but this years draft, it has been well documented, drops off significantly after about 6-8. If you lost hope completely with Brock and believe he'll be average from here on in, then it's a good trade. If you still rated him, then it's risky. Brock, of our 3 in and under types, has played multiple 30+ possession games. This is peoples' major thing with this. Brock has a habit of monstering games, which is why people thought he was awesome. Probably why the Blues were so keen. Moloney, Jones and Valenti have not had that capacity. In their careers, or last season.

I'm now far more interested in what might fall our way at 11. I don't know how many, but there will be some very good players picked after 11 in this draft. Obviously we need to back BP to draft well.

Obviously. Pick 11 COULD be a dud. Like any draft pick I guess. Brock was not a dud. He was many things, but not a dud. I do agree that by getting the MOST picks as HIGH in the draft as possible is what solves the problem, so in theory I'm ok with it. Just not your GOOD players who are also YOUNG.

Yeah, after BP's crap result at the last draft... oh. Wait.

So you're saying BP's drafting so far has been a roaring success? This time five-seven years ago Craig Cameron was lauded as the most important person at MFC. Now look. He's apparently the reason we're in this mess. We won't know how good BP's been for another few years yet. Let's say he had a good draft last year, that doesn't mean his next one will be a corker too. We know very little about the quality of BP's drafting right now.

Seriously, have a little faith, and don't quote all the players picked at 11, quote all the players pick at and AFTER 11, to show what we will have a chance at getting.

I have faith in BP

There's having a little faith in your recruiters, and there's knowing the facts. Every draft gets weighed against past ones. Some are terrible... 2003 is a good example. Some are awesome (I think 2008 will be one of the all-time greats). The FACTS are that this draft is compromised. The players, if you use your eyes, are good up to a point. In fact, if you like Scully, Morabito, Trengove etc etc... then cast your eyes forward a handful of picks and you'll be excited. The problem is it drops off SIGNIFICANTLY after that.

We'll still get a good player. I think even Jackattack knows this, but we already HAD one. One that was capable of huge games, even with his faults.

As for people who look at who's drafted AFTER 11 in history, well that's just ridiculous. No recruiter has the benefit of hindsight... and it's a cold hard fact that the vast majority of the best players going around come from the sharp end of the draft. Reiwoldt - pick 1, Judd - pick 3, Franklin - pick 5 (I think), Cooney - pick 1...

Pick 11 IS at the sharp end. That much is true. And I think pick 11 in a normal draft is a bargain for Brock... in this skinny draft, it probably brings the value of the pick down a little, making it just about a fair trade in the end. So we got the correct value, in most peoples' eyes.

But we won't know for 5 years. That's the bit that stings. Brock is about to go into his prime. The footy department is absolutely dead on when they say we're 4-6 years away from being a threat. It'll take 3 to get these players playing finals again. And a few more to win it, and I reckon in those years Brock would have been playing his best footy. So do many people.

[rpfc 27,505]

Who we take is important in judging this deal but the fact remains - McLean is not worth a pick in the single figures, even in this draft.

Add to this fact that we are going to get two brand spanking new mids in the draft and suddenly we are selling surplus stock at retail prices.

We have done well, and it strengthens our push to be a flag worthy side from 2013 onwards.

[volders 22]

Aplogies for re-posting this.

Pick 11 for the last 22 years:

2008 Steele Sidebottom

2007 Patrick Veszpremi

2006 Andrejs Everitt

2005 Shaun Higgins

2004 Adam Thomson

2003 Beau Waters

2002 Jason Winderlich

2001 Richard Cole

2000 Trent Sporn

1999 Darren Glass

1998 Lenny Hayes

1997 Jason Saddington

1996 Brent Grgic

1995 Donald Cockatoo-Collins

1994 Damien Ryan

1993 Brad Johnson

1992 Jonathon Robran

1991 Leigh Willison

1990 Danny Sexton

1989 Darren Smith

1988 Mark Bayliss

1987 Tim McNeil

1986 Jason Taylor

Find 11 here that are better than Brock, and then we're at even odds to get value for the trade.

In a weak draft

We don't get the players picked after pick 11, we get the player we picked at 11. And we're one of the least resourced recruiting departments around, I have nothing against BP but chances are he won't find one.

this post is so, so useless. do you really think the draft runs the same way in 2009 as in the 80's? do you think the same information was available and that the same amount of effort went in to picking players? even 10 years ago the amount of effort to determine a draft pick is vastly different.

[JACKATTACK 17]

this post is so, so useless. do you really think the draft runs the same way in 2009 as in the 80's? do you think the same information was available and that the same amount of effort went in to picking players? even 10 years ago the amount of effort to determine a draft pick is vastly different.

And this one is a picture of quality and insight.

If you have a problem with the sample, do some research of your own and come up with an alternative. Or do you just base your estimations of the relative quality of pick 11 on your gut feeling?

Perhaps a list of all pick 10s, 11s, and 12s since 95 would be more appropriate,.... ooooops wait there I go again, trying to put up evidence to support an argument.