The Butcher Shop

[smoking dog 0]

I know there are many who'll disagree, but I can't understand why Bate keeps getting left out of this discussion. It seems to me that this guy is just starting to show us something after a few developmental years and should be a viable forward option, along with Garland, Martin etc. I think Morton will end up forward as well. How about a forward line made up of

Morton Watts/Garland Davey

Jurrah Bate / Jamar (?) Wona

(with Martin, Dunn, Jetta, Maric, etc. in reserve)

How about that group being fed by Scully, Trengove (fingers crossed), Moloney, Grimes, Blease et al?

Looks pretty potent to me!

[Dr Jekyl & Mr Hyde 0]

Good old Butch'

[Clanger King 9]

MFC recuited by position last year for a promising player who was not the best in the land.

Watts will be a gun but was not the best in the game as Rich or Nicnat could equally have those two spots.

Although Jurrah is a great find he is not the answer to our problems like most are making out. I would desprately love trengove but think Butcher is the better opinion and it depends on how the football department and DB want our game plan to be. If we are going for a West Coast/Geelong style when they won the flag on the back of their midfield 'cousins or judd' and 'Ablett or Selwood' or Sydney/Hawthorn which is more on there forwards in Hall/ Micky O and Buddy/Roughhead.

Our forward structure is quiet poor and Jurrah isn't a FF and neither is Watts (he will either play like Riewoldt but mostly likely like a Hird/Goodes). If we don't go for Butcher we will structure our forward line like Western (not a bad thing) but I think we would be stupid not to get a big FF who people forget is still rated anywhere between 2 and 5 in the draft and we still get the best kids in the country.

I just think he has gone backwards thats all.. He hasn't been ALL AUSTRALIAN before, gets injured alot, doesnt seem to run over 5kms in a game and something that should be his bread an butter is his kicking and thats suspect. I dont know this stat maybe someone can help but when was the last time a number 2 pick was NOT an All Australian?

Why doesnt anyone think that we could get a quality tall with pick 18? Even if we don't it wouldnt hurt playing Martin there for a year until next years draft.

[drdrake 3,187]

Agree that Bate is starting to show something, but he isn't a key forward, he is a third tall at best and he will be at his best if we can put two other key talls around him. We also need to plan for injuries, say if Watts gets injured which he miss games in the future who then do we have. We need options, we seem to have the defensive options, we have a number of midfielders on our list but our tall forward options are limited.

Also from what I see with Bailey, we looks to want to have our second ruck as a tall forward instead of a bench player.

[Wolfmother 182]

I think Bate is a good forward line option but is like Johnson or Chapman at Geelong... leading out to the ball at HFF rather than a FF. Same with Jurrah.... to see the best out of him he needs to be the third tall rather than our no.1 guy

[e25 5]

The argument that he's clearly the best KPP available is irrelevant - so what?

Like some others have pointe out Polak was the best KPP available in 2001. Would you be happy with him instead of Judd, Hodge, even Luke Ball?

Butcher is rated higher than he should be due to a dearth of decent KPP types in this draft.

I'd prefer Talia or Carlisle anyway, I see more to work with, more potential to grow

[Mousey 47]

I just think he has gone backwards thats all.. He hasn't been ALL AUSTRALIAN before, gets injured alot, doesnt seem to run over 5kms in a game and something that should be his bread an butter is his kicking and thats suspect. I dont know this stat maybe someone can help but when was the last time a number 2 pick was NOT an All Australian?

Why doesnt anyone think that we could get a quality tall with pick 18? Even if we don't it wouldnt hurt playing Martin there for a year until next years draft.

Thats the great thing about this discussion and decision, it can be easily counter argument ed with why dont you think we could get a quality mid with pick 18? Dayne Beams and others are good examples. Getting a KPP is harder! Newton as an example.

Some thrive and exceed expectations when they hit the AFL game, all players are different.

Im not sure if i agree with your notion that days of Matthew Lloyds and Fevola are over. Even though the Blues have one of the best young midfields running around, if Fev does not play good, Carlton never win. Lloyd...well he is near the end of his career. Buddy, Roughead, Kosi, Roo, are all great big man targets that are VITAL to their teams success! Good big forward options will never die from this game!

Bate is for sure a big part of our future but not as a number 1 option, but will excel once we get more forward options.

Morton will be used up forward from time to time. Best thing about Cale is his versatility but i think on a wing is his future, he is known to have one of the biggest engines of young kids to come through the draft.

[Mousey 47]

The argument that he's clearly the best KPP available is irrelevant - so what?

Like some others have pointe out Polak was the best KPP available in 2001. Would you be happy with him instead of Judd, Hodge, even Luke Ball?

Butcher is rated higher than he should be due to a dearth of decent KPP types in this draft.

I'd prefer Talia or Carlisle anyway, I see more to work with, more potential to grow

Correct but no-one actually fully knows what players will be like when they hit the AFL scene!

No-one knew at the time about picking Polak would be the worse one out of Judd, Hodge or Ball?

Same as Tambling getting picked up over Buddy Franklin etc..

We dont know if Scully/Trengrove will succeed in the AFL for SURE..

We can only hope about prospects..

[Clanger King 9]

Thats the great thing about this discussion and decision, it can be easily counter argument ed with why dont you think we could get a quality mid with pick 18? Dayne Beams and others are good examples. Getting a KPP is harder! Newton as an example.

Some thrive and exceed expectations when they hit the AFL game, all players are different.

Im not sure if i agree with your notion that days of Matthew Lloyds and Fevola are over. Even though the Blues have one of the best young midfields running around, if Fev does not play good, Carlton never win. Lloyd...well he is near the end of his career. Buddy, Roughead, Kosi, Roo, are all great big man targets that are VITAL to their teams success! Good big forward options will never die from this game!

Bate is for sure a big part of our future but not as a number 1 option, but will excel once we get more forward options.

Morton will be used up forward from time to time. Best thing about Cale is his versatility but i think on a wing is his future, he is known to have one of the biggest engines of young kids to come through the draft.

... Buddy Roughead Kosi Roo can all play more the one role. Some would say that Fevola is Carltons achillies heal. I just think there is going to be more around at pick 18 then taking someone at pick 2 for team balance. No doubt KPP are harder but hes a one trick pony that doesnt do THAT much. Put him up against Panos see how he fairs.

[e25 5]

Correct but no-one actually fully knows what players will be like when they hit the AFL scene!

No-one knew at the time about picking Polak would be the worse one out of Judd, Hodge or Ball?

Same as Tambling getting picked up over Buddy Franklin etc..

We dont know if Scully/Trengrove will succeed in the AFL for SURE..

We can only hope about prospects..

Yeah, you're right - I'd much rather take a punt on Jake Carlisle at pick 1 cos he hasn't played AFL for that long and he could become the next Buddy Franklin.

Sure Scully has looked fantastic in the last 2 years, but there's no guarantee he'll make it as a star.

???

Come on, your logic is flawed.

There are never guarantees with any player, you make an educated guess.

Maybe if Butcher had a heap of potential, but I really don't think he does. The factors that indicate potential just aren't there for mine.

[Clanger King 9]

Yeah, you're right - I'd much rather take a punt on Jake Carlisle at pick 1 cos he hasn't played AFL for that long and he could become the next Buddy Franklin.

Sure Scully has looked fantastic in the last 2 years, but there's no guarantee he'll make it as a star.

???

Come on, your logic is flawed.

There are never guarantees with any player, you make an educated guess.

Maybe if Butcher had a heap of potential, but I really don't think he does. The factors that indicate potential just aren't there for mine.

Nor mine he has gone backwards. Have a look TAC Cup results hes 197cm playing on blokes that are 190cm MAX (There is not going to be many 197cm Full Backs in the TAC CUP as the coach will want to develop them in more dangeous spots) and not dominating. I ask what is his upside? If its only his Height then gee.. we have a keeper..

[Mousey 47]

Yeah, you're right - I'd much rather take a punt on Jake Carlisle at pick 1 cos he hasn't played AFL for that long and he could become the next Buddy Franklin.

Sure Scully has looked fantastic in the last 2 years, but there's no guarantee he'll make it as a star.

???

Come on, your logic is flawed.

There are never guarantees with any player, you make an educated guess.

Maybe if Butcher had a heap of potential, but I really don't think he does. The factors that indicate potential just aren't there for mine.

Fair enough mate. Im not saying im perfect with my logic at all, just putting things in for discussion that im sure the club would be doing too.

[Tatu 416]

Butcher definatly has potental to be a great KPF.

he can kick goals easily from out side 50

he has a strong contested mark

he has athletic abilty

he's a good higth

at worst he will be a good ruckman.

[Mousey 47]

just for comparison sake-

TAC Cup Stats between Butcher and Watts the year they were drafted-

Games played- Butcher 8, Watts 6

Goals- Butcher 26 Watts 8

Behinds- Butcher 15 Watts 3

Number of times in Best- Butcher 5 Watts 1

Kicks Effective- Butcher 39 Watts 48

Kicks Ineffective- Butcher 30 Watts 32

Handballs effective- Butcher 20 Watts 24

Handballs ineffective- Butcher 9 Watts 7

Contested Marks- Butcher 25 Watts 8

UnContested Marks- Butcher 24 Watts 23

[H_T 3,049]

John Butcher

Age: 18

Position: Key Forward

Butcher is often double-teamed up forward because of his dominance and in the past Butcher has booted four goals to despite being double-teamed. Butcher is touted as a possible number two draft pick mainly because the Melbourne Demons (who are expected to have pick one and two) lack a big forward target currently.

He is an agile mover and can outmanoeuvre and run most tall opponents that are matched up on him, at least at junior level. He is known for his very strong marking ability; he is rarely out-marked and rarely drops marks. He can play as the true full-forward of old; just sit in the goal square and then out mark the opposition. At 197cm he will be very hard to match up on. Weighing in at 86kg he is perhaps a little light for his size but with an AFL club’s preseason he will be very strong.

He has proven his performance in three under 18 championships and is some what of a known quantity to the recruiters because of that. He is not just a mark and then set shot player though, he can also kick snaps under pressure as was the case in the Vic Country vs. Vic Metro match. Butcher can play back, as he is seen as a natural footballer (he probably will never play there if drafted by the Dees because of their forward troubles and comparative strength in the backline).

John Butcher is said to be a bit of a character, a bit different and hard to get to know. He has the tendency to backchat but has vowed to stop. Coming from Maffra in Central Gippsland he is a typical country footballer. His father played over 300 games for Maffra and is a strong proponent for the club. He seems to be following his fathers footsteps except he is going to be drafted into the AFL.

Butcher is a big St Kilda fan and it would seem like he would like to end up there at some point in his career, hopefully for the Saints straight after the draftee’s first contract runs out.

One of the few things that are negative is that he went in for hip surgery in November.

*-courtesy Contested Footy blog.

[premiershipvigil 10]

just for comparison sake-

TAC Cup Stats between Butcher and Watts the year they were drafted-

Games played- Butcher 8, Watts 6

Goals- Butcher 26 Watts 8

Behinds- Butcher 15 Watts 3

Number of times in Best- Butcher 5 Watts 1

Kicks Effective- Butcher 39 Watts 48

Kicks Ineffective- Butcher 30 Watts 32

Handballs effective- Butcher 20 Watts 24

Handballs ineffective- Butcher 9 Watts 7

Contested Marks- Butcher 25 Watts 8

UnContested Marks- Butcher 24 Watts 23

Nice one Mousey, given the games played difference I am not sure we can take much from the stats.

Trengove is the draftee with the best pedigree and I think he might be better than Scully if the reports about his games for Sturt are anything to go buy.

I am inclined to take the path of least risk and draft Scully and Trengove however, I am concerned that Watts and Jurrah in the forward line is not going to be enough and a forward line with Watts out injured for a while is a further cause for concern.

I can't decide yet...........need to wait until after draft camp.

PS the wife said go for one of the mids and get the best kpf with the next pick

[H_T 3,049]

PS the wife said go for one of the mids and get the best kpf with the next pick

Wife knows best..they say...

[dee-luded 2,959]

Thats the thing..NOONE knows how the careers of all the draftees will pan out... you pick on talent AND potential.

If we went along the thinking you just posted last year, we would of surely had to pick Daniel Rich or Ziebell over Jack Watts, true?

Do you believe we made the right decision about Jack Watts?

Im not disregarding Trengove being out pick at number 2, but i am saying people should have a more open mind to these things..its very one eyed at the moment and seems like if we did pick Butcher people would be slitting wrists! I believe the club and recruitment staff are in the best position to analyse who to bring in to the club come draft time.

I've got an open mind, if we take a midfielder @ pick 2, Trengove.

If we take a tall forward @ pick 2, I'd take Talia.

[e25 5]

just for comparison sake-

TAC Cup Stats between Butcher and Watts the year they were drafted-

Games played- Butcher 8, Watts 6

Goals- Butcher 26 Watts 8

Behinds- Butcher 15 Watts 3

Number of times in Best- Butcher 5 Watts 1

Kicks Effective- Butcher 39 Watts 48

Kicks Ineffective- Butcher 30 Watts 32

Handballs effective- Butcher 20 Watts 24

Handballs ineffective- Butcher 9 Watts 7

Contested Marks- Butcher 25 Watts 8

UnContested Marks- Butcher 24 Watts 23

I see what you're saying, and stats do play a big role in deciding on who to draft, but for me its more the physical qualities, the skill set and tools the player displays that will make him succeed at AFL level, as opposed to pure performance.

The only thing that will convince me otherwise is seeing more of Butcher play where he displays some of things that I think are sorely lacking from his game.

Edited August 26, 2009 by Enforcer25

[Mousey 47]

I see what you're saying, and stat do play a big role in deciding on who to draft, but for me its more the physical qualities, the skill set and tools the player displays that will make him succeed at AFL level, as opposed to pure performance.

The only thing that will convince me otherwise is seeing more of Butcher play where he displays some of things that I think are sorely lacking from his game.

Yep fully understand mate and agree with some of your question marks over him.

Im also not so sure about his character, i am fully no where in the position to judge it as i have never met the bloke but judging by some articles and quotes and coaches saying he is indeed different... is a little bit of a worry too..but yeah draft camp may prove alot of doubters right or wrong.

Exciting anyway that we are in the rich position to have a choice of any 2 of the big bunch of draft hopefulls.

I just never want to be in this position again!!! haha

[Hobbits's 17]

Pretty sure Watts played up the ground as well as up forward. A little misleading mousey. Butcher wouldn't have left the goal square, let alone forward 50!

[Hannabal 4]

Butcher definatly has potental to be a great KPF.

he can kick goals easily from out side 50

he has a strong contested mark

he has athletic abilty

he's a good higth

at worst he will be a good ruckman.

Too much of a risk. Pick 2 is pure gold and I don't want to risk it on a player that "at worst will be a good ruckman". At worst Trengove will be a 200 game A grade mid. There's time to draft/recruit a marking tall forward over the next few years. This club can't afford to keep drafting for 5 years down the track on 'potentially' good key forwards. We need to start winning in the midfield. And before anyone mentions Watts, he was a one off talent imo who had to be taken.

Jolly, Sandilands, Cox, Brogan = Rookie draft ruckman. We wont pick Butcher at 2. There are too many question marks.

[Mousey 47]

Pretty sure Watts played up the ground as well as up forward. A little misleading mousey. Butcher wouldn't have left the goal square, let alone forward 50!

Yeh mate fully aware of that and i think i remember the dees were a bit mad at the fact they kept playing him on the wing instead of up forward.

I just put the stats there for the sake of it , for more discussion

Like ive said a few times i am not 100% PRO Butcher with our number 2 pick, but im also not 100% full Trengove pick 2 also so yeah i just think its interesting to discuss it.... but yeah ....we have no say

[e25 5]

Too much of a risk. Pick 2 is pure gold and I don't want to risk it on a player that "at worst will be a good ruckman". At worst Trengove will be a 200 game A grade mid. There's time to draft/recruit a marking tall forward over the next few years. This club can't afford to keep drafting for 5 years down the track on 'potentially' good key forwards. We need to start winning in the midfield. And before anyone mentions Watts, he was a one off talent imo who had to be taken.

Jolly, Sandilands, Cox, Brogan = Rookie draft ruckman. We wont pick Butcher at 2. There are too many question marks.

Not only do good ruckmen often come out of the rookie draft, but a case in point would be Luenberger (serviceable as a back up so far) and Fraser (massively overrated) as ruckmen that haven't set the world on fire despite being picked high in the draft order.

But we're talking KPFs here.

[dee-luded 2,959]

Pretty sure Watts played up the ground as well as up forward. A little misleading mousey. Butcher wouldn't have left the goal square, let alone forward 50!

Watts seems to me to be the lead up tall forward a little like Nick Riewoldt played early in his career. He's a hard worker who can also take marks from within a pack.

Butcher it seems is more a stop at home type forward who i think is limited to that role. The lack of kicking class also limits his flexability to the side.

The most versatile tall IMO is Daniel Talia, still growing into his body @ 6'5" & pacy with great agility & skills aplenty. Can play Forward & Back. This boy if you want to spend the high pick on a tall is the best bet.

If we didn't go for 2 Mids, for those who think we don't need the extra mid, we could go another way.

We could take Scully or Trengove with Priority pick. Talia @ our 2nd pick. And perhaps a Carlisle, with pick 18.