PATTERNS - WJ's Match Review v Dogs

[Demonland 73,136]

PATTERNS by Whispering Jack

"From the moment of my birth

To the instant of my death,

There are patterns I must follow

Just as I must breathe each breath.

Like a rat in a maze

The path before me lies,

And the pattern never alters

Until the rat dies"

- Paul Simon and Art Garfunkel – "Patterns"

I gave up looking for the ultimate answers about life a long, long time ago. I prefer to leave that sort of stuff to the existentialists while I enjoy my family, go to a good movie, listen to my music, discuss and debate politics, eat decent tucker and enjoy my footy. The rest of the time, I work for a living and occasionally do charitable work. I should have been a Saint but I'm a Demon – I can't help it. I think I was born that way.

This all means that if you happen to be looking for the ultimate answer as to why Melbourne is performing so badly entering its 150th season, you might have to look elsewhere. All I can do is give my opinion to the effect that yesterday's second consecutive thrashing at the MCG – this time at the hands of the Western Bulldogs by 24.17.161 to 9.12.66 followed a pattern that was set a long time ago. And the pattern is not likely to alter until a certain event happens.

Until the rat dies.

Yesterday's game followed a predictable course for the most part. That course was set through the pre season and was firmly established last week when the team capitulated to the Hawks by 104 points. Yesterday's game saw a similar result although the opposition was in my estimation, only a middle of the range side that will struggle to make the eight. The Bulldogs did however, have the benefit of entering the game on a high after a last gasp victory over Adelaide the week before. It helps when you come into a game chock full of confidence and with your leaders setting the sort of example that the likes of Brad Johnson and Scott West set for their club.

The game itself was not one of two halves but more one of three phases: -

Phase 1 – The Competitive Phase

The game opened up in positive fashion. Dean Bailey had set the team up well with his best 18 on the ground, a spare man in defence, had discarded one of his talls from the forward line and replaced him with a crumbing forward in Aaron Davey. It worked for most of the first quarter while the players showed some accountability. The midfield won the early clearances and Davey booted the first goal. Had Paul Johnson been more accurate, the Demons could have even opened up a nice early lead. Still, one could notice a tiny bit of passion, aggression and even a flicker of inspiration but sadly, it lasted only a brief moment in time. The mistakes slowly started creeping in and these resulted in a couple of self-inflicted Demon wounds that were the Bulldogs' only goals for the quarter.

The competitive phase ended with the siren and Melbourne was unlucky not to have won its first quarter for the season. The Western Bulldogs were in front by a solitary point. The Demons were well served by Nathan Jones who was a terrier in the middle and by defenders Nathan Carroll and Paul Wheatley (the spare man in defence).

Phase 2 – The Decline Phase

The onset of decline came almost imperceptively. Early in the second term you started to get the feeling that the Bulldogs were going to gradually take control and they did. Again, it started with the help of some own goals on Melbourne's part. When you're in danger of entering the decline phase, you need your leaders to stand up, be unselfish and not fumble or drop marks or handpass direct to the opposition. Let's just say that while they fared a little better than last week, the leaders still failed to live up to the expectation.

Despite maintaining control of the clearances, the team was breaking down across half forward. The pattern was set for slow, stop-start football and the mistakes kept coming with greater frequency. This is another part of the pattern that we have to expect because of the presence of several youngsters in a team that's not really playing as a team but more as a group that shows little semblance of passion or unity of purpose.

By half time, the Doggies had moved to a 25 point lead but, in my estimation, they were a little fortunate to be that far in front as a couple of their goals came gift wrapped courtesy of fundamental errors by their opponents and at least one from a poor umpiring decision. That's life and you take those advantages when you'e given them.

Phase 3 – The Earth Hour Phase

The main feature of the pattern is in that the final half of each game the team enters its own "Earth Hour" – an hour in which the power is turned off and the team is completely overrun. There may be some variations to the theme before that event but the final half score line of 15.8.98 to 4.4.28 in favour of the Bulldogs is a pattern that Melbourne fans will have to get used to as the season unfolds.

The good news is that this pattern will moderate and things won't always be that bad but for the moment, the Demons are suffering from the fact that so many of their key players had interrupted pre seasons. Too many of them are underdone, a result of not enough hard work and match conditioning. Last week it was Cameron Bruce who came back with limited pre-season preparation, this week it was Clint Bartram, Lynden Dunn and Colin Sylvia. Next week it's likely to be Jared Rivers and possibly Matthew Whelan. Further, there are a few youngsters in the side at the moment, notably Jace Bode, Colin Garland and Isaac Weetra who are clearly not ready for the big stage. All of these factors, with the added problem of an aging leadership group that has shown itself to be unable to get fired up or set an example of accountability to the rest of the side will ensure that the pattern of decline and fade out will continue for a little while yet until the elders either shape up or are culled from the group and the younger players learn what it's all about. That might still take more than a little time so Melbourne supporters will feel some more pain in the months to come.

The game was a sad 200th for James McDonald who played his heart out as usual but the good form of Paul Johnson and the continuing improvement of Cale Morton were both encouraging.

Less encouraging was the form of Brock McLean, a youngster who has an enormous weight of expectation on his shoulders and is looking decidedly sluggish. He seemed to be running faster and harder when he was being interchanged on and off the ground than while in general play. One has to wonder whether he's enjoying his football these days.

I know this business of interchanging and rotation is in vogue at the moment but I just don't get it. If the idea is to keep your players fresh so that they can see out a game of football, why do the Melbourne players look so washed up in that final phase of the game?

I don't have the answer to that question and, as I indicated earlier, I don’t have the ultimate answer either. But I've been told that looking for ultimate answers is a little like looking for a black cat in a dark basement at night when the black cat isn't really there. It's an absurd quest and it certainly can't be answered overnight and most definitely not next Sunday when the team travels to Geelong where they will find some real cats.

To achieve success from Melbourne's position, it is necessary to bring in a complete sea change and that takes time. To understand that, you only had to watch St. Kilda overrun Carlton last night. The Saints have been learning their style of game for over a year under Ross Lyon and last night, they played a type of game that was not that dissimilar to the one that Melbourne is attempting to play - except that they got every split second decision right while the Demons get most of them wrong at the moment. When they finally get things right, they will have crossed the fine line that you need to cross in order to alter the pattern. At that point, the rat dies.

Melbourne 2.4.16 5.8.38 7.9.51 9.12.66

Western Bulldogs 2.5.17 9.9.63 18.13.121 24.17.161

Goals

Melbourne Neitz Robertson White 2 Davey Green Jones

Western Bulldogs Murphy 4 Akermanis Cross Hill Johnson Welsh 3 Giansiracusa Gilbee Griffen Hahn Wight

Best

Melbourne Wheatley Carroll Jones P Johnson Morton McDonald

Western Bulldogs Cross Murphy Cooney Hill Gilbee Griffen

Injuries

Melbourne Davey (ankle)

Western Bulldogs Higgins (ankle)

Reports nil

Changes Jace Bode replaced Michael Newton in Melbourne's selected line-up; Tim Callan replaced Nathan Eagleton (ankle) in the Western Bulldogs' selected line-up

Umpires Farmer Kamolins Ryan

Crowd 27,821 at the MCG

[occo 2]

I was there yesterday watching the pain of melbourne and a gameplan worthy of handballing and passing to people under pressure. I take from this game that DB is changing the game plan significantly. It is obvious from the fact Port play similar footy and the preseason had an emphisis on teaching the players the new plan. Give it time. It wont happen overnight and infact it will take 5 years i believe to have a team worthy of a top 4 finish. But stick with them. I know its horrible to watch and depressing but the team needs us to stick by them and support them thru the good and the bad times. There is no point dwelling on what draft picks we should have got also. Look at the issues at hand and keep supporting the club which is trying its best to win and be sucsessful

[grazman 7,451]

I was there yesterday watching the pain of melbourne and a gameplan worthy of handballing and passing to people under pressure. I take from this game that DB is changing the game plan significantly. It is obvious from the fact Port play similar footy and the preseason had an emphisis on teaching the players the new plan. Give it time. It wont happen overnight and infact it will take 5 years i believe to have a team worthy of a top 4 finish. But stick with them. I know its horrible to watch and depressing but the team needs us to stick by them and support them thru the good and the bad times. There is no point dwelling on what draft picks we should have got also. Look at the issues at hand and keep supporting the club which is trying its best to win and be sucsessful

I'm super impressed by Bailey. He's not fazed, he absolutely believes in what he's doing and I'm prepared to back him in. To be brutally honest the crap that other sides have thrown at us about being soft and downhill skiers is true - Bailey is teaching us to be hard again - it'll take time and probably take quite a few casualties, but I like his approach even if I don't like the current results.

[Diablo 1]

I'm super impressed by Bailey. He's not fazed, he absolutely believes in what he's doing and I'm prepared to back him in. To be brutally honest the crap that other sides have thrown at us about being soft and downhill skiers is true - Bailey is teaching us to be hard again - it'll take time and probably take quite a few casualties, but I like his approach even if I don't like the current results.

The problem, graz, is that to many, Bailey not being fazed looks more like apathy. I have to say I have been impressed with him thus far, and his willingness to play young blokes like Morton, Buckley, Weetra and Garland (even if the latter two look like basket cases to date) and actually give them time on the park is something that was seriously lacking under ND. However I just worry that, as a new coach, the immense pressure that is already building on him might divert him from his initial plan, and he reverts to the tired old contrivances and cliches. "More training" is not going to fix all the problems with this mob. They need to be given a spray so mighty that they nearly drown in spit. The lack of respect some players have shown to Bailey via their attitudes has been nothing short of appalling. Bailey needs to realise that some of these blokes are nothing more than spoilt brats, and treat them as such.

[Scoop Junior 3,513]

It's not easy to understand why we are where we are at the moment. I can't quite get my head around it. A team that performed well from 2004-2006, then had a horror run with injuries in 2007, to now being (at this point in time) uncompetitive with a style of football that is quite simply embarrassing.

Many point their fingers at the senior players, and rightly so. But whose fault is it? The players' fault for not living up to expectation and not improving enough? A lack of development from the coaching staff? The list management staff for keeping them on too long? It's hard to know.

I think a major reason for our current position has been a lack of understanding of our true position at particular points in time. Start with 2004 - top of the ladder after Rd 18. This is followed by a 12-goal loss to Port in Adelaide and is then followed by three consecutive losses and a subsequent elimination final defeat at the hands of Essendon. While it was a very disappointing end to the year, the side had made great progress since 2003. The drop-off at the end was somehwat forgotten amidst the joy at being back on track.

Halfway through 2005 the side was again dominating, sitting in 2nd spot. A loss at home to WCE wad followed by smashings at the hands of Brisbane and Port. Again the side fell in a heap. There was a minor recovery at the end of the year with close wins in our last three games before bombing out against the Cats in an elimination final. What this season should've taught us was that once again our senior players failed. After a year ago falling away, this should not have been allowed to happen again. At this point in time it would've been fair to start moving on the blokes who kept letting us down. Instead we stuck with them.

By Round 17 2006, the side was entrenched in the top four and looking the goods. Could we finally deliver? As in the previous two seasons, the team once again fell in a hole. A disastrous loss to Carlton (second loss to the Blues for the season) followed by one more win in the remaining four rounds. There was a good final win over the Saints (but remember, St Kilda led at three quarter time and had a bad run of injuries on the night) before losing the semi to Fremantle. Overall, reaching the semis was a good result, but from where we were at Round 17, it was disappointing. Again, for the third year in a row, the team fell in a hole.

Decisions then had to be made. Do we stick with the blokes who obviously had enough ability to make us a decent side but clearly not a premiership side or do we move them on? ND and CAC chose to go for the flag. A bold move but understandable in the circumstances. ND was crippled by injuries in 2007 and this killed his flag chances. But so too did the faith he showed in his senior players. They had let him down before and in 2007, despite the injuries, the team was pathetic and they let him down again.

Then we get to Bailey. New coach, new assistants, new footy manager, new everything. Another hard decision was there to be made - do we trade out the senior players who had let us down over a number of years or go with them again. We traded out one - TJ, but no one else. This was Bailey's first mistake. With all the new faces, a rebuild was on the cards. But we only did a partial rebuild, clearing only TJ. More should have gone. Again there was hope the senior players would lead the way in 2008. But it's now four years on since 2004, making them older, on the decline and even more flakier. Then some of these blokes make it into the leadership group!

It's really no surprise to see the team wilt in the first few games. The senior players have done it before, so why wouldn't it happen again? How many times over the years have we seen Melbourne collapse in games, drop the unloseable game and go on big losing streaks? Teams with quality senior players don't do this. Yet we were too slow to learn and are now paying the price.

Of course there are many other factors involved, like the fact we are being forced to play youngsters before they're ready in some cases and other youngsters with questionable abilities at senior level. This is inevitably going to result in some thumpings. But quite simply we've tolerated our senior players who have not been good enough for too long. This also impacts on the younger blokes as they are not getting the right leadership out on the ground.

At the very least, these thrashings may have finally reuslted in the message getting through. The senior blokes are not good enough to take us where we want to go. It's painful, it's embarrassing, it's difficult to watch and it's quite simply ridiculous. But bad decisions result in bad outcomes. Let's hope we can learn from it.

[grazman 7,451]

The problem, graz, is that to many, Bailey not being fazed looks more like apathy. I have to say I have been impressed with him thus far, and his willingness to play young blokes like Morton, Buckley, Weetra and Garland (even if the latter two look like basket cases to date) and actually give them time on the park is something that was seriously lacking under ND. However I just worry that, as a new coach, the immense pressure that is already building on him might divert him from his initial plan, and he reverts to the tired old contrivances and cliches. "More training" is not going to fix all the problems with this mob. They need to be given a spray so mighty that they nearly drown in spit. The lack of respect some players have shown to Bailey via their attitudes has been nothing short of appalling. Bailey needs to realise that some of these blokes are nothing more than spoilt brats, and treat them as such.

I don't think he's living in denial.

Having met him in Canberra at a coaches forum and listened to his thoughts on coaching and player development in general I've absolutely no doubt what so ever that it is not apathy or ignorance on his behalf. He's incredibly focused and determined. I had a lot of respect for Neale Daniher, but he was too close to the players to be objective. I don't think we'll get that with DB. If Moloney and Petterd were dropped ahead of Weetra and Garland this weekend it was for a specific reason. I think he'll be brutally honest with the players and they'll play his way or the highway. It's easy to be suckered in and say - well lets trade McLean, Sylvia and Newton and start again, but I think that Bailey and Co will say that the problem isn't about skill, it's about attitude and we need to fix the attitude.

[Freddy Fuschia 747]

Again there was hope the senior players would lead the way in 2008. But it's now four years on since 2004, making them older, on the decline and even more flakier. Then some of these blokes make it into the leadership group!

Surely, our biggest mistake because it's virtually irreversible at least during the course of this season.

We're stuck with most of these guys as team leaders (unless they go off speeding in the cars or get [censored] in public) and we can't change them. That means it might be some time before the rat dies!

[grazman 7,451]

It's not easy to understand why we are where we are at the moment. I can't quite get my head around it. A team that performed well from 2004-2006, then had a horror run with injuries in 2007, to now being (at this point in time) uncompetitive with a style of football that is quite simply embarrassing.

We traded out one - TJ, but no one else. This was Bailey's first mistake. With all the new faces, a rebuild was on the cards. But we only did a partial rebuild, clearing only

Scoop I think the point is that even though we made the finals from 04-06 quite simply we were a fair way from being a contender. The [censored] that was thrown at us about being 'soft' was being thrown for a reason.

The truth is that we suffered in those years from a serious over valuation of our lists merits. We should have delisted far more vigorously than we did. The problems that Bailey inherited aren't of his making and the decision to trade TJ was largely made by others around him. It's unfair to say he should have swept more out the door before he had a chance to critically assess them and work with them. By the admissions of many folk, we have a good dozen players that are ready for pasture or delisting at years end - you can't trade away everyone before you know whether you can fix them. TJ obviously couldn't be.

[Pepe Dee Pew 0]

If AFL is about 1 percenters then we are way behind without a permanent base. It is much harder to develop players to the required level without a permanent base. Thank God this has been addressed and we will get that base in the next couple of years - plus a base at Casey (soon).

In the meantime it will take a while for Rivers, Bartram, Whelan to get back to form after missing a lot of footy. So lets not expect to much for the next few weeks.

Questions we are asking. Will Sylvia and McLean live up to their 3 and 5 draft picks - so much hinges on that.

Will PJ take up from White when he eventually goes in the next year or 2. Will Meeson come on.

Will Garland, Frawley, Dunn and Newton and Petterd develop?

Nothing to worry about regarding Bate, Jones, Morton - will be guns.

Well we just have to hang in there and hope for some good draft picks this year - and use them well.

[Scoop Junior 3,513]

Scoop I think the point is that even though we made the finals from 04-06 quite simply we were a fair way from being a contender. The [censored] that was thrown at us about being 'soft' was being thrown for a reason.

The truth is that we suffered in those years from a serious over valuation of our lists merits. We should have delisted far more vigorously than we did. The problems that Bailey inherited aren't of his making and the decision to trade TJ was largely made by others around him. It's unfair to say he should have swept more out the door before he had a chance to critically assess them and work with them. By the admissions of many folk, we have a good dozen players that are ready for pasture or delisting at years end - you can't trade away everyone before you know whether you can fix them. TJ obviously couldn't be.

Yeah I agree we were a fair way away. That's the main thrust of my post - that we did not accurately gauge where we were at.

But I don't agree on Bailey's failure to ship more out. It's not Bailey's fault he has inherited a crap list and I'll put my faith in him to sift his way through it and rebuild it. But you can come into a club and make hard decisions. Look at Malcolm Blight at Adelaide in flicking McDermott, McGuiness, etc. Bailey knew enough about our list to impress the selection panel and he therefore knew enough to make decisions prior to 2008. It's clearly not his fault where we are at, but I would have liked to have seen more done in the off-season in terms of rebuilding.

[mick2007 0]

After watching alot of the other teams this weekend it seems like our fitness,strength, endurance and intensity is well below par. Hawthorn & Brisbane look like they had big pre seasons and will give Geelong a crack. I know its early in the season and players are eager and jumping out of there skin, but we don't look like we have improved our fitness over the Pre Season. Could someone who knows what we did comment on our Pre Season preparation. Did we focus too much on Game Plan change and forget about overall fitness

[barpen 0]

according to 3AW yesterday, a learned man said that he knew the bulldogs would win due to the two teams respective pre-seasons.

i think we look slow and the game plan of taking the ball around the wings as opposed to taking it through the middle also contributes to this. players don't seem to want to run and chase.

our tackling is also disgraceful.

[Rhino Richards 1,467]

We started the pre season with only 20 fit players. All the others were either on LT injury or completing rehab.

We went into the NAB Cup game against Geelong with about 25 to 26 of the list fully fit to play.

This is definitely one of a number of factors in our performance.

[Demon16 69]

We started the pre season with only 20 fit players. All the others were either on LT injury or completing rehab.

We went into the NAB Cup game against Geelong with about 25 to 26 of the list fully fit to play.

This is definitely one of a number of factors in our performance.

exactly.

if more supporters understood just how little miles are in the legs of our players, they would understand that many are starting thier pre-season now.

[Eastie Boyz 0]

Second half fadeaways are maybe understandable in that case, but in both games you've basically been out of it by half time

[mick2007 0]

I can remember MFC great for Last Quarter fade aways years ago. Neale Daniher turned that around and had us really fit and fired up after Troy Broadbridges death and we could out run the opposition. I don't see the logic in delisting Ward and Godfrey which have some legs if we had alot of injuries over summer. Wouldn't it make more sense to get rid of the injury proned

[Demon16 69]

last year we had the worst injury run of any side in history......thats a fact. as we know most players who were injured were our better players, and many of them happened early in the season, therefore not only are they recovering from injury but also trying to gain fitness lost from the start-mid last season. that takes time. rivers is the prime example, he's still not ready to play and we are soo desperate for a player such as him to be out on the field.

would we be better with ward, godfrey etc? probably, but it would have set back the development of our juniors. it's a fair argument, but imagine at the end of this year if we dumped those guys and then also lost neitz, yze, white, junior etc ? alot of experience lost in one hit.

[Demon16 69]

Second half fadeaways are maybe understandable in that case, but in both games you've basically been out of it by half time

yesterday was partly a second half fadeout, 4 goals down at half time. combine a lack of fitness with a new gameplan which changes us from a kicking team to a handball, run and carry team, and it's going to take time. the leadership group has been poor, no doubt, but i'm confident we'll see some much better performances in 3 weeks or so when the match fitness is there.

[mick2007 0]

^^^^^^

By the time our match fitness is up to scratch the rest of the leagues teams will still have more match fitness than us. We will only start winning a game when teams are burnt out and we are a bit fresher

[s-t-i-n-g-a 439]

Does anyone remember (I think it was 98) when we would just run right over the top of teams in the last quater.

There was a time when no matter how far behind, we were always a chance to pile on the goals in no time and get up. Made for exceptional viewing....

[Eastie Boyz 0]

I remember in 2000 you were like that.

won 13 last quarters in a row before the granny

[Demon16 69]

^^^^^^

By the time our match fitness is up to scratch the rest of the leagues teams will still have more match fitness than us. We will only start winning a game when teams are burnt out and we are a bit fresher

yep. fortunately the biggest skill errors letting us down at the moment is handball which shouldn't take too long to get right, but in terms of fitness we've got alot of catching up to do. pretty hard to play a run and carry style with a lack of match fitness.

[Juice Newton 0]

all i know is that baily was pumping up how well a few players such as isaac weetra and colin garland had been training before the season, and now look how much (or not much) they've contributed

[mick2007 0]

all i know is that baily was pumping up how well a few players such as isaac weetra and colin garland had been training before the season, and now look how much (or not much) they've contributed

Training is a bit different Kezza they don't get hit and there is no pressure. Its game day when the real men come out to play and the boys [censored] there pants and hear footsteps. When your out with the big boys it all changes and its just a mentality thing really.

[Jaded No More 68,972]

A lack of fitness does not excuse an inability to kick, handball or tackle.

Maybe you can't run as hard or chase down as many opponents, but if you can't kick it has nothing to do with how many miles you ran in January.

On the other hand, given our love affair with running the boundary and over using the ball, it seems reasonable that we'd struggle without a decent fitness base.