2 hours ago, jnrmac said:

I think you need to pay CD for that kind of analysis

What I have done in the past is screenshot the stats off the AFL app or website at the end of each quarter.

1 hour ago, layzie said:

Yeah I've started doing that too. Seems to still be the best way.

I have the quarterly breakdown of all the stats if you're after anything specific. I could also include a table in my regular post with some of the key stats broken down by quarter. Any particular stats of most interest?

8 minutes ago, WheeloRatings said:

I have the quarterly breakdown of all the stats if you're after anything specific. I could also include a table in my regular post with some of the key stats broken down by quarter. Any particular stats of most interest?

Thanks Very kind. Nothing for me on a regular basis. I just like to see how the stats play out versus my own eyes when watching the game.

1 minute ago, jnrmac said:

Thanks Very kind. Nothing for me on a regular basis. I just like to see how the stats play out versus my own eyes when watching the game.

That's fair. It certainly should be easier to access such basic info on the AFL website/app.

2 hours ago, WheeloRatings said:

I have the quarterly breakdown of all the stats if you're after anything specific. I could also include a table in my regular post with some of the key stats broken down by quarter. Any particular stats of most interest?

Don't go to too much effort Wheelo but things like clearances, cont and uncontested possessions would be great. Maybe tackles for a defensive aspect. Even a differential would help if its easier. Maybe others have some good suggestions as well?

The closest thing I've found for quarterly stats is the AFL app when you look at a player eg. How any touches they had in the 3rd quarter. Footywire has a brief quarter by quarter scoring breakdown but that's it.

Love your work @WheeloRatings

Thought L Pickett had much better defensive pressure and your stats support that.

2 hours ago, layzie said:

Don't go to too much effort Wheelo but things like clearances, cont and uncontested possessions would be great. Maybe tackles for a defensive aspect. Even a differential would help if its easier. Maybe others have some good suggestions as well?

The closest thing I've found for quarterly stats is the AFL app when you look at a player eg. How any touches they had in the 3rd quarter. Footywire has a brief quarter by quarter scoring breakdown but that's it.

The 'timeline' on the AFL app is pretty good as thru the match, and at the end of each quarter, it highlights some notable stats.

20 hours ago, binman said:

The 'timeline' on the AFL app is pretty good as thru the match, and at the end of each quarter, it highlights some notable stats.

Does it do it for the team stats Bin? Will pay attention to that part.

18 minutes ago, layzie said:

Does it do it for the team stats Bin? Will pay attention to that part.

Some, but really just notable numbers - and only one or two per quarter. For example this comment was made at the 20 mins mark of the last quarter:

Melbourne continues to apply the pressure with the last two goals of the game, both from forward half chains. All three Melbourne goals this term have come from forward half chains. It has been pretty even in forward half scores, with Melbourne leading 7.5.47 to 7.4.46 for Carlton.

56 minutes ago, binman said:

Some, but really just notable numbers - and only one or two per quarter. For example this comment was made at the 20 mins mark of the last quarter:

Melbourne continues to apply the pressure with the last two goals of the game, both from forward half chains. All three Melbourne goals this term have come from forward half chains. It has been pretty even in forward half scores, with Melbourne leading 7.5.47 to 7.4.46 for Carlton.

Thanks Binman.

Also with a pressure rating of 202 in the last quarter that commentary lines up!

Edited Wednesday at 06:445 days by binman

Did anyone just watch First Crack.

Daniel Hoyne from champion data was on the show and pretty much confirmed that for the first time since Chanpion Data have been recording speed of ball movement, Melbourne was the fastest ever on the weekend in terms of moving the ball with speed.

Melbourne v Gold Coast (Round 4, 2026)

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20260406

Key Team Stats

Stats in bold were won by Melbourne.

Stat	For	Against	Diff	2026	2025	AFL
Disposal Efficiency
Disposal Retention	68.9	75.7	-6.8	68.9	70.5	71.0
Disposal Efficiency	68.6	78.6	-10.0	70.0	73.2	73.7
Kicking Efficiency	65.2	75.0	-9.8	64.6	67.8	67.4
Kick Into Forward 50 Retention	48.0	46.2	+1.8	48.5	46.2	47.4
Metres Gained
Kick Metres Gained	5488	5220	+268	5709.4	5545.5	5651.3
Kick Metres Gained / Kick	26.1	27.9	-1.8	26.7	26.2	26.3
Handball Metres Gained	63	379	-316	224.0	169.1	216.3
Territory/Attack
Time In Forward Half	52.6	47.4	+5.2	52.5	51.4	50.0
Inside 50s	59	45	+14	59.0	52.8	53.7
Shots At Goal	30	22	+8	29.5	26.4	27.5
Scores / Inside 50	49.2	42.2	+6.9	44.1	45.1	46.4
Goals / Inside 50	27.1	31.1	-4.0	25.0	22.3	24.4
Marks Inside 50	19	14	+5	15.2	10.9	12.3
Transition
Chain To Score %	26.9	19.6	+7.3	23.1	21.5	22.2
Defensive 50 To Forward 50 %	31.2	33.3	-2.1	27.2	24.4	23.2
Defensive 50 To Score %	18.8	13.3	+5.4	13.3	9.7	9.9
Defensive Half To Forward 50 %	33.3	40.0	-6.7	33.5	31.1	31.7
Defensive Half To Score %	19.3	15.4	+3.9	15.4	12.6	13.3
Contest
Contested Possessions	138	116	+22	128.5	135.2	127.5
Ground Ball Gets	87	86	+1	83.8	87.3	84.4
Post Clearance Contested Poss	84	83	+1	80.8	82.7	80.9
Post Clearance Ground Ball Gets	60	62	-2	59.8	56.7	57.2
Contested Marks	11	9	+2	9.2	10.5	8.5
Clearance
Total Clearances	39	28	+11	36.2	36.8	35.1
Centre Clearances	18	9	+9	15.2	12.8	13.2
Stoppage Clearances	21	19	+2	21.0	24.0	22.0
First Possessions	51	24	+27	40.5	42.3	38.0
First Possession To Clearance %	74.5	79.2	-4.7	71.6	72.3	74.7
Defense
Intercepts	64	59	+5	65.8	64.8	66.9
Intercept Marks	12	9	+3	16.2	16.3	14.0
Tackles	59	54	+5	59.5	57.2	54.7
Tackles Inside 50	13	6	+7	9.0	11.4	10.2
Def One On One Loss %	54.5	40.0	+14.5	43.2	27.9	27.0
Ruck
Ruck Contests	89	87	+2	92.2	92.2	86.8
Hitouts	42	27	+15	47.0	41.1	34.2
Hitouts To Advantage	14	4	+10	12.8	11.5	10.3
Equity Points
Pre Clearance	48.4	21.5	+26.9	39.1	33.3	33.0
Post Clearance	133.5	153.7	-20.3	132.1	115.9	123.6
Ball Winning	117.0	99.3	+17.7	113.8	112.5	110.1
Ball Use	65.0	86.6	-21.6	60.3	39.6	49.3

Transition stats measure how often chains result in a score or an inside 50. Chains include all kick-in chains, all clearances, and intercepts with at least one disposal in the chain.

• Chain To Score %: proportion of all chains that resulted in a score.

• Defensive 50 To Forward 50 %: proportion of all chains starting in the defensive 50 that resulted in an inside 50.

• Defensive 50 To Score %: proportion of all chains starting in the defensive 50 that resulted in a score.

• Defensive Half To Forward 50 %: proportion of all chains starting in the defensive half that resulted in an inside 50.

• Defensive Half To Score %: proportion of all chains starting in the defensive half that resulted in a score.

Equity is the WheeloRatings implementation of the AFL Player Ratings.

• Ball Winning: Equity points from winning possession of the ball.

• Ball Use: Equity points from disposal, including shots at goal, and carrying the ball.

Player Ratings

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Match	TOG	Ball Win.	Ball Use
Jack Steele	4.3	5.6	6.7	7.8	24.4	77%	11.6	5.8
Max Gawn	4.2	8.2	6.0	5.9	24.3	82%	11.9	1.0
Kysaiah Pickett	2.1	8.3	3.7	7.9	22.0	80%	6.9	14.5
Tom Sparrow	1.3	2.8	7.8	3.1	15.0	68%	4.8	3.8
Kade Chandler	3.3	5.5	0.6	3.6	12.9	76%	5.9	4.8
Brody Mihocek	4.2	6.4	0.0	0.9	11.5	84%	5.0	4.5
Latrelle Pickett	1.3	3.2	2.4	4.1	11.1	65%	4.0	4.8
Christian Salem	6.8	−2.1	3.8	1.7	10.2	77%	5.3	5.3
Harry Sharp	2.1	1.9	3.3	2.7	10.0	74%	2.2	7.9
Harvey Langford	1.3	4.1	0.4	3.8	9.7	67%	4.5	4.7
Jake Melksham	1.7	5.2	3.3	−0.6	9.5	84%	4.1	5.4
Blake Howes	2.7	3.8	0.2	2.2	9.0	80%	3.6	1.8
Koltyn Tholstrup	0.3	3.9	2.8	1.5	8.6	78%	5.0	−1.0
Jacob van Rooyen	1.9	5.0	1.0	0.2	8.1	78%	6.9	0.1
Xavier Lindsay	2.1	1.0	2.1	2.5	7.6	77%	4.0	1.1
Caleb Windsor	0.9	1.2	2.0	3.4	7.4	75%	4.3	0.1
Jai Culley	−0.2	0.9	2.8	3.2	6.7	75%	6.9	−0.2
Tom McDonald	1.8	0.8	1.0	2.3	6.0	96%	5.3	0.5
Ed Langdon	3.3	0.2	3.8	−1.9	5.5	84%	3.4	2.9
Jake Lever	1.8	2.9	0.0	−0.5	4.1	86%	2.6	−0.1
Daniel Turner	0.8	2.2	0.9	−0.7	3.2	95%	2.9	−2.1
Bailey Laurie	3.1	−0.9	−0.9	0.5	1.7	60%	1.1	0.3
Harrison Petty	−1.0	−0.3	3.4	−0.4	1.6	82%	4.8	−0.7

Contested Possessions

	For	Against	Diff
Melbourne's Defensive 50
Hard Ball Get	3	6	-3
Loose Ball Get	19	10	+9
Contested Mark	2	4	-2
Gather From Hitout	1	0	+1
Free For	3	1	+2
Total	28	21	+7
Melbourne's Forward 50
Hard Ball Get	2	7	-5
Loose Ball Get	11	17	-6
Contested Mark	4	2	+2
Ruck Hard Ball Get	2	1	+1
Gather From Hitout	2	1	+1
Free For	1	3	-2
Total	22	31	-9
Post clearance
Hard Ball Get	14	18	-4
Loose Ball Get	46	44	+2
Contested Mark	11	9	+2
Contested Knock On	3	0	+3
Free For	10	12	-2
Total	84	83	+1
Pre clearance
Hard Ball Get	7	4	+3
Loose Ball Get	20	20	0
Ruck Hard Ball Get	7	2	+5
Gather From Hitout	11	4	+7
Contested Knock On	1	1	0
Free For	8	2	+6
Total	54	33	+21

• Official data on pre- and post-clearance contested possessions are not available. These have been estimated by Wheelo Ratings and should be indicative.

• Ground ball gets are inclusive of hard ball gets and loose ball gets.

• 'Free For' does not include free kicks to advantage or free kicks while in possession of the ball as these are not counted as contested possessions.

Expected scores

	xScore	Score	xWin %	xMargin	Margin	Swing
Melbourne	105.1	109	97%	+30.4	+20
Gold Coast	74.7	89	3%			+10.4

	Shots	Score	Accuracy	xScore	+/-
Overall
Melbourne	30	16.11 107	53.3%	103.1	+3.9
Gold Coast	22	14.4 88	63.6%	73.7	+14.3
General Play
Melbourne	11	4.4 28	36.4%	30.9	−2.9
Gold Coast	6	3.0 18	50.0%	18.0	+0.0
Set Position
Melbourne	19	12.7 79	63.2%	72.2	+6.8
Gold Coast	16	11.4 70	68.8%	55.7	+14.3

• xWin %: win probability based on expected scores.

• Swing: difference between expected margin and actual margin.

• xScore: total expected score from all shots taken.

• +/-: total score above or below expected score.

• xSc. / Shot: average expected score per shot. This represents the average shot difficulty.

• Shot Rating: average score above or below expected score per shot at goal.

Notes: Expected scores are calculated by Wheelo Ratings. Each shot at goal is assigned an expected score based on the distance from goal, shot angle, and type of shot (e.g. set shot, general play following contested possession, general play following uncontested possession, ground kick, etc) as a proxy for pressure. The model does not take into account factors like the player, whether the ball was kicked with their preferred or non-preferred foot, and pressure on the player when taking the shot. Rushed behinds are excluded from actual and expected scores.

Territory (time in zones)

Region	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Match	Season
Half
Forward	59%	40%	54%	58%	53%	52%
Defensive	41%	60%	46%	42%	47%	48%
Region
Forward 50	30%	22%	27%	27%	27%	25%
Attacking Midfield	29%	18%	27%	31%	26%	28%
Defensive Midfield	22%	35%	24%	21%	26%	24%
Defensive 50	19%	25%	22%	21%	22%	24%

Source: Calculated by Wheelo Ratings.

Score Sources

Summary

Score Source	xChainScore	Score	Diff
Melbourne
Kick-in	1.7	0.1 1	-0.7
Centre Bounce	16.8	3.3 21	+4.2
Stoppage (Other)	22.0	5.3 33	+11.0
Turnover	44.7	8.6 54	+9.3
Opposition
Kick-in	4.5	1.0 6	+1.5
Centre Bounce	8.4	1.0 6	-2.4
Stoppage (Other)	14.0	5.0 30	+16.0
Turnover	36.3	7.5 47	+10.7
Diff
Kick-in	-2.8	-5
Centre Bounce	+8.4	+15
Stoppage (Other)	+8.0	+3
Turnover	+8.4	+7

xChainScore: expected points scored based on the origin of a team’s chains, including clearances, turnovers, and kick-ins.

Score Source	For		Against
	Match	Season	Match	Season *
Kick-in	1	8.2	6	5.0
Centre Bounce	21	12.0	6	11.0
Stoppage (Other)	33	25.8	30	33.2
Turnover	54	53.8	47	48.5

* Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Gold Coast.

Chain start region

Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective.

Region	For		Against
	Match	Season	Match	Season *
Defensive 50	26	21.5	21	20.5
Defensive midfield	20	18.2	24	19.2
Centre bounce	21	12.0	6	11.0
Attacking midfield	27	33.0	32	28.5
Forward 50	15	15.0	6	18.5

* Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Gold Coast.

Points from defensive half

For		Against
Match	Season	Match	Season *
46	39.8	45	39.8

* Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Gold Coast.

Centre Bounce Attendances

	CBAs	CBA %	2026 %	2025 %
Max Gawn	27	82%	83.7%	85.5%
Kysaiah Pickett	27	82%	67.4%	69.0%
Jack Steele	25	76%	74.4%	74.3%
Caleb Windsor	25	76%	57.4%	12.1%
Tom Sparrow	22	67%	48.1%	6.6%
Harrison Petty	6	18%	10.9%	0.4%
Koltyn Tholstrup	0	0%	23.3%	0.0%
Harvey Langford	0	0%	6.2%	9.9%
Jacob van Rooyen	0	0%	4.7%	13.4%
Jai Culley	0	0%	4.7%	0.0%
Kade Chandler	0	0%	2.3%	1.1%
Xavier Lindsay	0	0%	1.6%	0.4%
Christian Salem	0	0%	0.8%	1.5%
Brody Mihocek	0	0%	0.0%	0.2%
Daniel Turner	0	0%	0.0%	0.2%
Ed Langdon	0	0%	0.0%	3.1%
Jake Melksham	0	0%	0.0%	0.2%
Trent Rivers			28.4%	19.9%

Ruck Contests and Hitouts

Ruck Contests

	Ruck Contests	RC %	2026 %	2025 %
Max Gawn	60	67%	76.2%	81.5%
Harrison Petty	20	22%	9.5%	2.8%
Jacob van Rooyen	8	9%	10.6%	15.0%
Brody Mihocek	1	1%	2.2%	2.7%
Jai Culley	0	0%	1.6%	0.0%
Daniel Turner	0	0%	0.0%	0.2%

Hitouts

	Ruck Contests	Hitouts	To Adv.	To Adv. % (2026)	To Adv. % (2025)
Melbourne
Max Gawn	60	32	13	29.2%	27.8%
Harrison Petty	20	8	0	20.0%	23.6%
Brody Mihocek	1	1	1	50.0%	45.4%
Jacob van Rooyen	8	1	0	6.7%	30.3%
Opposition
Jarrod Witts	72	21	4
Jed Walter	12	4	0
Mac Andrew	3	2	0

Thanks Wheelo.

Significantly more attacking both by hand and foot vs our 2025 version (looking at meters gained by hand & foot)

Also ahead of AFL 2026 averages so far.

Edited yesterday at 11:531 day by Demon Dynasty

Melbourne v Gold Coast (Round 4, 2026)

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20260406

Pressure

Team pressure

Quarter	For	Agn	Diff
1	169	151	+18
2	184	191	-7
3	170	182	-12
4	190	187	+3
Match	178	177	+1

Source: Herald Sun

Most Pressure Points

Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ )

Player	Pressure Acts	Pressure Points	Season Average
Kade Chandler	23	59	48.5
Tom Sparrow	19	54	50.5
Caleb Windsor	19	51	46.2
Jack Steele	17	44	57.2
Harry Sharp	14	41	35.2
Blake Howes	16	41	22.0
Kysaiah Pickett	10	28	44.8
Brody Mihocek	12	28	17.0
Jai Culley	14	21	29.0
Jacob van Rooyen	7	20	16.8
Ed Langdon	11	19	23.2
Harrison Petty	7	19	22.2
Christian Salem	9	18	23.0
Xavier Lindsay	8	17	22.5
Harvey Langford	12	17	21.2
Bailey Laurie	7	17	17.0
Koltyn Tholstrup	7	16	24.5
Max Gawn	5	15	16.5
Latrelle Pickett	7	14	15.0
Daniel Turner	6	13	18.0
Jake Melksham	5	9	9.0
Tom McDonald	4	8	9.0
Jake Lever	4	6	15.2

Source: Herald Sun

3 hours ago, WheeloRatings said:

Melbourne v Gold Coast (Round 4, 2026)

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20260406

Key Team Stats

Stats in bold were won by Melbourne.

Stat	For	Against	Diff	2026	2025	AFL
Disposal Efficiency
Disposal Retention	68.9	75.7	-6.8	68.9	70.5	71.0
Disposal Efficiency	68.6	78.6	-10.0	70.0	73.2	73.7
Kicking Efficiency	65.2	75.0	-9.8	64.6	67.8	67.4
Kick Into Forward 50 Retention	48.0	46.2	+1.8	48.5	46.2	47.4
Metres Gained
Kick Metres Gained	5488	5220	+268	5709.4	5545.5	5651.3
Kick Metres Gained / Kick	26.1	27.9	-1.8	26.7	26.2	26.3
Handball Metres Gained	63	379	-316	224.0	169.1	216.3
Territory/Attack
Time In Forward Half	52.6	47.4	+5.2	52.5	51.4	50.0
Inside 50s	59	45	+14	59.0	52.8	53.7
Shots At Goal	30	22	+8	29.5	26.4	27.5
Scores / Inside 50	49.2	42.2	+6.9	44.1	45.1	46.4
Goals / Inside 50	27.1	31.1	-4.0	25.0	22.3	24.4
Marks Inside 50	19	14	+5	15.2	10.9	12.3
Transition
Chain To Score %	26.9	19.6	+7.3	23.1	21.5	22.2
Defensive 50 To Forward 50 %	31.2	33.3	-2.1	27.2	24.4	23.2
Defensive 50 To Score %	18.8	13.3	+5.4	13.3	9.7	9.9
Defensive Half To Forward 50 %	33.3	40.0	-6.7	33.5	31.1	31.7
Defensive Half To Score %	19.3	15.4	+3.9	15.4	12.6	13.3
Contest
Contested Possessions	138	116	+22	128.5	135.2	127.5
Ground Ball Gets	87	86	+1	83.8	87.3	84.4
Post Clearance Contested Poss	84	83	+1	80.8	82.7	80.9
Post Clearance Ground Ball Gets	60	62	-2	59.8	56.7	57.2
Contested Marks	11	9	+2	9.2	10.5	8.5
Clearance
Total Clearances	39	28	+11	36.2	36.8	35.1
Centre Clearances	18	9	+9	15.2	12.8	13.2
Stoppage Clearances	21	19	+2	21.0	24.0	22.0
First Possessions	51	24	+27	40.5	42.3	38.0
First Possession To Clearance %	74.5	79.2	-4.7	71.6	72.3	74.7
Defense
Intercepts	64	59	+5	65.8	64.8	66.9
Intercept Marks	12	9	+3	16.2	16.3	14.0
Tackles	59	54	+5	59.5	57.2	54.7
Tackles Inside 50	13	6	+7	9.0	11.4	10.2
Def One On One Loss %	54.5	40.0	+14.5	43.2	27.9	27.0
Ruck
Ruck Contests	89	87	+2	92.2	92.2	86.8
Hitouts	42	27	+15	47.0	41.1	34.2
Hitouts To Advantage	14	4	+10	12.8	11.5	10.3
Equity Points
Pre Clearance	48.4	21.5	+26.9	39.1	33.3	33.0
Post Clearance	133.5	153.7	-20.3	132.1	115.9	123.6
Ball Winning	117.0	99.3	+17.7	113.8	112.5	110.1
Ball Use	65.0	86.6	-21.6	60.3	39.6	49.3

Transition stats measure how often chains result in a score or an inside 50. Chains include all kick-in chains, all clearances, and intercepts with at least one disposal in the chain.

• Chain To Score %: proportion of all chains that resulted in a score.

• Defensive 50 To Forward 50 %: proportion of all chains starting in the defensive 50 that resulted in an inside 50.

• Defensive 50 To Score %: proportion of all chains starting in the defensive 50 that resulted in a score.

• Defensive Half To Forward 50 %: proportion of all chains starting in the defensive half that resulted in an inside 50.

• Defensive Half To Score %: proportion of all chains starting in the defensive half that resulted in a score.

Equity is the WheeloRatings implementation of the AFL Player Ratings.

• Ball Winning: Equity points from winning possession of the ball.

• Ball Use: Equity points from disposal, including shots at goal, and carrying the ball.

Player Ratings

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Match	TOG	Ball Win.	Ball Use
Jack Steele	4.3	5.6	6.7	7.8	24.4	77%	11.6	5.8
Max Gawn	4.2	8.2	6.0	5.9	24.3	82%	11.9	1.0
Kysaiah Pickett	2.1	8.3	3.7	7.9	22.0	80%	6.9	14.5
Tom Sparrow	1.3	2.8	7.8	3.1	15.0	68%	4.8	3.8
Kade Chandler	3.3	5.5	0.6	3.6	12.9	76%	5.9	4.8
Brody Mihocek	4.2	6.4	0.0	0.9	11.5	84%	5.0	4.5
Latrelle Pickett	1.3	3.2	2.4	4.1	11.1	65%	4.0	4.8
Christian Salem	6.8	−2.1	3.8	1.7	10.2	77%	5.3	5.3
Harry Sharp	2.1	1.9	3.3	2.7	10.0	74%	2.2	7.9
Harvey Langford	1.3	4.1	0.4	3.8	9.7	67%	4.5	4.7
Jake Melksham	1.7	5.2	3.3	−0.6	9.5	84%	4.1	5.4
Blake Howes	2.7	3.8	0.2	2.2	9.0	80%	3.6	1.8
Koltyn Tholstrup	0.3	3.9	2.8	1.5	8.6	78%	5.0	−1.0
Jacob van Rooyen	1.9	5.0	1.0	0.2	8.1	78%	6.9	0.1
Xavier Lindsay	2.1	1.0	2.1	2.5	7.6	77%	4.0	1.1
Caleb Windsor	0.9	1.2	2.0	3.4	7.4	75%	4.3	0.1
Jai Culley	−0.2	0.9	2.8	3.2	6.7	75%	6.9	−0.2
Tom McDonald	1.8	0.8	1.0	2.3	6.0	96%	5.3	0.5
Ed Langdon	3.3	0.2	3.8	−1.9	5.5	84%	3.4	2.9
Jake Lever	1.8	2.9	0.0	−0.5	4.1	86%	2.6	−0.1
Daniel Turner	0.8	2.2	0.9	−0.7	3.2	95%	2.9	−2.1
Bailey Laurie	3.1	−0.9	−0.9	0.5	1.7	60%	1.1	0.3
Harrison Petty	−1.0	−0.3	3.4	−0.4	1.6	82%	4.8	−0.7

Contested Possessions

	For	Against	Diff
Melbourne's Defensive 50
Hard Ball Get	3	6	-3
Loose Ball Get	19	10	+9
Contested Mark	2	4	-2
Gather From Hitout	1	0	+1
Free For	3	1	+2
Total	28	21	+7
Melbourne's Forward 50
Hard Ball Get	2	7	-5
Loose Ball Get	11	17	-6
Contested Mark	4	2	+2
Ruck Hard Ball Get	2	1	+1
Gather From Hitout	2	1	+1
Free For	1	3	-2
Total	22	31	-9
Post clearance
Hard Ball Get	14	18	-4
Loose Ball Get	46	44	+2
Contested Mark	11	9	+2
Contested Knock On	3	0	+3
Free For	10	12	-2
Total	84	83	+1
Pre clearance
Hard Ball Get	7	4	+3
Loose Ball Get	20	20	0
Ruck Hard Ball Get	7	2	+5
Gather From Hitout	11	4	+7
Contested Knock On	1	1	0
Free For	8	2	+6
Total	54	33	+21

• Official data on pre- and post-clearance contested possessions are not available. These have been estimated by Wheelo Ratings and should be indicative.

• Ground ball gets are inclusive of hard ball gets and loose ball gets.

• 'Free For' does not include free kicks to advantage or free kicks while in possession of the ball as these are not counted as contested possessions.

Expected scores

	xScore	Score	xWin %	xMargin	Margin	Swing
Melbourne	105.1	109	97%	+30.4	+20
Gold Coast	74.7	89	3%			+10.4

	Shots	Score	Accuracy	xScore	+/-
Overall
Melbourne	30	16.11 107	53.3%	103.1	+3.9
Gold Coast	22	14.4 88	63.6%	73.7	+14.3
General Play
Melbourne	11	4.4 28	36.4%	30.9	−2.9
Gold Coast	6	3.0 18	50.0%	18.0	+0.0
Set Position
Melbourne	19	12.7 79	63.2%	72.2	+6.8
Gold Coast	16	11.4 70	68.8%	55.7	+14.3

• xWin %: win probability based on expected scores.

• Swing: difference between expected margin and actual margin.

• xScore: total expected score from all shots taken.

• +/-: total score above or below expected score.

• xSc. / Shot: average expected score per shot. This represents the average shot difficulty.

• Shot Rating: average score above or below expected score per shot at goal.

Notes: Expected scores are calculated by Wheelo Ratings. Each shot at goal is assigned an expected score based on the distance from goal, shot angle, and type of shot (e.g. set shot, general play following contested possession, general play following uncontested possession, ground kick, etc) as a proxy for pressure. The model does not take into account factors like the player, whether the ball was kicked with their preferred or non-preferred foot, and pressure on the player when taking the shot. Rushed behinds are excluded from actual and expected scores.

Territory (time in zones)

Region	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Match	Season
Half
Forward	59%	40%	54%	58%	53%	52%
Defensive	41%	60%	46%	42%	47%	48%
Region
Forward 50	30%	22%	27%	27%	27%	25%
Attacking Midfield	29%	18%	27%	31%	26%	28%
Defensive Midfield	22%	35%	24%	21%	26%	24%
Defensive 50	19%	25%	22%	21%	22%	24%

Source: Calculated by Wheelo Ratings.

Score Sources

Summary

Score Source	xChainScore	Score	Diff
Melbourne
Kick-in	1.7	0.1 1	-0.7
Centre Bounce	16.8	3.3 21	+4.2
Stoppage (Other)	22.0	5.3 33	+11.0
Turnover	44.7	8.6 54	+9.3
Opposition
Kick-in	4.5	1.0 6	+1.5
Centre Bounce	8.4	1.0 6	-2.4
Stoppage (Other)	14.0	5.0 30	+16.0
Turnover	36.3	7.5 47	+10.7
Diff
Kick-in	-2.8	-5
Centre Bounce	+8.4	+15
Stoppage (Other)	+8.0	+3
Turnover	+8.4	+7

xChainScore: expected points scored based on the origin of a team’s chains, including clearances, turnovers, and kick-ins.

Score Source	For		Against
	Match	Season	Match	Season *
Kick-in	1	8.2	6	5.0
Centre Bounce	21	12.0	6	11.0
Stoppage (Other)	33	25.8	30	33.2
Turnover	54	53.8	47	48.5

* Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Gold Coast.

Chain start region

Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective.

Region	For		Against
	Match	Season	Match	Season *
Defensive 50	26	21.5	21	20.5
Defensive midfield	20	18.2	24	19.2
Centre bounce	21	12.0	6	11.0
Attacking midfield	27	33.0	32	28.5
Forward 50	15	15.0	6	18.5

* Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Gold Coast.

Points from defensive half

For		Against
Match	Season	Match	Season *
46	39.8	45	39.8

* Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Gold Coast.

Centre Bounce Attendances

	CBAs	CBA %	2026 %	2025 %
Max Gawn	27	82%	83.7%	85.5%
Kysaiah Pickett	27	82%	67.4%	69.0%
Jack Steele	25	76%	74.4%	74.3%
Caleb Windsor	25	76%	57.4%	12.1%
Tom Sparrow	22	67%	48.1%	6.6%
Harrison Petty	6	18%	10.9%	0.4%
Koltyn Tholstrup	0	0%	23.3%	0.0%
Harvey Langford	0	0%	6.2%	9.9%
Jacob van Rooyen	0	0%	4.7%	13.4%
Jai Culley	0	0%	4.7%	0.0%
Kade Chandler	0	0%	2.3%	1.1%
Xavier Lindsay	0	0%	1.6%	0.4%
Christian Salem	0	0%	0.8%	1.5%
Brody Mihocek	0	0%	0.0%	0.2%
Daniel Turner	0	0%	0.0%	0.2%
Ed Langdon	0	0%	0.0%	3.1%
Jake Melksham	0	0%	0.0%	0.2%
Trent Rivers			28.4%	19.9%

Ruck Contests and Hitouts

Ruck Contests

	Ruck Contests	RC %	2026 %	2025 %
Max Gawn	60	67%	76.2%	81.5%
Harrison Petty	20	22%	9.5%	2.8%
Jacob van Rooyen	8	9%	10.6%	15.0%
Brody Mihocek	1	1%	2.2%	2.7%
Jai Culley	0	0%	1.6%	0.0%
Daniel Turner	0	0%	0.0%	0.2%

Hitouts

	Ruck Contests	Hitouts	To Adv.	To Adv. % (2026)	To Adv. % (2025)
Melbourne
Max Gawn	60	32	13	29.2%	27.8%
Harrison Petty	20	8	0	20.0%	23.6%
Brody Mihocek	1	1	1	50.0%	45.4%
Jacob van Rooyen	8	1	0	6.7%	30.3%
Opposition
Jarrod Witts	72	21	4
Jed Walter	12	4	0
Mac Andrew	3	2	0

Thanks @WheeloRatings . Is the handball metres gained for us right?

If yes, points to clever coaching by King I reckon as our forward handball has been a notable feature of our game this season, averaging high 200s metres gained by hand coming into this game (Suns are #1 average something like 420 metres gained by hand)

We only had 63 in this match, which had to be due to an instruction an tactic

1 hour ago, binman said:

Thanks @WheeloRatings . Is the handball metres gained for us right?

If yes, points to clever coaching by King I reckon as our forward handball has been a notable feature of our game this season, averaging high 200s metres gained by hand coming into this game (Suns are #1 average something like 420 metres gained by hand)

We only had 63 in this match, which had to be due to an instruction an tactic

I was really surprised as well by those numbers as were were doing a lot of long handballs forward. @WheeloRatings How are total metres gained worked out. GCs numbers seem out or maybe I am missing something. It seemed off that they had more metres gained per kick and +316m gained by handballs but were the expected 268m less than us. But doing a multiply of their number of kicks by ave metres gained per kick and then adding handball metres gained you end up with 400 extra metres than what they had. Were they running backwards a lot or am I missing something.

3 hours ago, binman said:

Thanks @WheeloRatings . Is the handball metres gained for us right?

If yes, points to clever coaching by King I reckon as our forward handball has been a notable feature of our game this season, averaging high 200s metres gained by hand coming into this game (Suns are #1 average something like 420 metres gained by hand)

We only had 63 in this match, which had to be due to an instruction an tactic

19 minutes ago, Watson11 said:

I was really surprised as well by those numbers as were were doing a lot of long handballs forward. @WheeloRatings How are total metres gained worked out. GCs numbers seem out or maybe I am missing something. It seemed off that they had more metres gained per kick and +316m gained by handballs but were the expected 268m less than us. But doing a multiply of their number of kicks by ave metres gained per kick and then adding handball metres gained you end up with 400 extra metres than what they had. Were they running backwards a lot or am I missing something.

Gold Coast had 188 kicks but I could only calculate the distance of 187 of them (without looking into that, it could be a kick on the siren where the result of the kick wasn't recorded). The gained 5220 metres by kick (187 x 27.9) + 379 by hand = 5599m. They gained a total of 5851 metres so an additional ~252m running.

Re handball metres gained, I can at least confirm that none of the stats are typos as it's all generated automatically using a consistent methodology (pressure is one exception where I transcribe the stats from the Herald Sun). By my calculations, Melbourne had 70 handballs which gained territory amounting to 295 metres gained. 22 of these gained at least 5 metres. The remaining 61 handballs lost 232 metres. For Gold Coast, 102 handballs gained a total of 637 metres, and 61 lost 258 metres.

Here are the estimated total handball distances and metres gained per Melbourne player yesterday. I should reiterate that these are my calculations, not official Champion Data numbers. From what I have seen, CD's handball metres gained numbers are generally a higher than mine, but my overall calculated metres gained are very close to CD's so it may be a methodology difference or the way that handball location (origin/destination) are recorded in the data set I use. I haven't manually cross-checked individual handballs against live vision to see how they're recorded, but maybe I will investigate that further at some point.

Player	HB	Distance	Metres Gained
Max Gawn	11	84.6	43.2
Tom Sparrow	10	76.5	32.1
Kade Chandler	9	57.5	26.7
Bailey Laurie	5	46.4	18.6
Jai Culley	2	19.1	17.0
Kysaiah Pickett	7	53.0	9.2
Blake Howes	7	62.3	8.3
Ed Langdon	4	23.2	7.2
Daniel Turner	3	20.2	6.8
Jacob van Rooyen	6	34.0	6.5
Harrison Petty	2	17.9	2.4
Caleb Windsor	6	29.5	0.4
Jake Lever	1	2.2	0.4
Xavier Lindsay	6	64.3	−5.6
Tom McDonald	4	19.5	−8.6
Harry Sharp	6	39.4	−8.8
Jake Melksham	4	34.9	−9.9
Latrelle Pickett	3	21.8	−10.3
Christian Salem	7	39.7	−11.4
Harvey Langford	5	29.3	−12.6
Koltyn Tholstrup	7	48.9	−14.6
Jack Steele	16	87.6	−34.3

29 minutes ago, Watson11 said:

I was really surprised as well by those numbers as were were doing a lot of long handballs forward. @WheeloRatings How are total metres gained worked out. GCs numbers seem out or maybe I am missing something. It seemed off that they had more metres gained per kick and +316m gained by handballs but were the expected 268m less than us. But doing a multiply of their number of kicks by ave metres gained per kick and then adding handball metres gained you end up with 400 extra metres than what they had. Were they running backwards a lot or am I missing something.

1 hour ago, WheeloRatings said:

Gold Coast had 188 kicks but I could only calculate the distance of 187 of them (without looking into that, it could be a kick on the siren where the result of the kick wasn't recorded). The gained 5220 metres by kick (187 x 27.9) + 379 by hand = 5599m. They gained a total of 5851 metres so an additional ~252m running.

Re handball metres gained, I can at least confirm that none of the stats are typos as it's all generated automatically using a consistent methodology (pressure is one exception where I transcribe the stats from the Herald Sun). By my calculations, Melbourne had 70 handballs which gained territory amounting to 295 metres gained. 22 of these gained at least 5 metres. The remaining 61 handballs lost 232 metres. For Gold Coast, 102 handballs gained a total of 637 metres, and 61 lost 258 metres.

Here are the estimated total handball distances and metres gained per Melbourne player yesterday. I should reiterate that these are my calculations, not official Champion Data numbers. From what I have seen, CD's handball metres gained numbers are generally a higher than mine, but my overall calculated metres gained are very close to CD's so it may be a methodology difference or the way that handball location (origin/destination) are recorded in the data set I use. I haven't manually cross-checked individual handballs against live vision to see how they're recorded, but maybe I will investigate that further at some point.

Player	HB	Distance	Metres Gained
Max Gawn	11	84.6	43.2
Tom Sparrow	10	76.5	32.1
Kade Chandler	9	57.5	26.7
Bailey Laurie	5	46.4	18.6
Jai Culley	2	19.1	17.0
Kysaiah Pickett	7	53.0	9.2
Blake Howes	7	62.3	8.3
Ed Langdon	4	23.2	7.2
Daniel Turner	3	20.2	6.8
Jacob van Rooyen	6	34.0	6.5
Harrison Petty	2	17.9	2.4
Caleb Windsor	6	29.5	0.4
Jake Lever	1	2.2	0.4
Xavier Lindsay	6	64.3	−5.6
Tom McDonald	4	19.5	−8.6
Harry Sharp	6	39.4	−8.8
Jake Melksham	4	34.9	−9.9
Latrelle Pickett	3	21.8	−10.3
Christian Salem	7	39.7	−11.4
Harvey Langford	5	29.3	−12.6
Koltyn Tholstrup	7	48.9	−14.6
Jack Steele	16	87.6	−34.3

I watched the replay and we def hanballed backwards and laterally more often than we have been

I reckon there's no doubt it was tactical.

Despite what they were saying on the commentary, the Suns, as evidenced by theie 300 us metres gained by and, were still using lots of forward handball. But we were super focused on pressing up on the receiver and often stopped or disrupted their forward flow.

That was supported by the squeeze we are putting on our opponents, with the defenders pressing right up when the opponent is trying to transition from the back half, and the forwards also squeezing up in that scenario. So often.the Suns found them.in congestion with no great options forward or back. And they are not a precision kicking team like the lions (their game plan is very similar to ours it it's focus on territory and winning contests inside 50).

But they couldn't do that to us, which I'd bet my bottom dollar they planned to, because we weren't doing our normal long forward handballs.

Instead we often went long by foot, and often to a contest. I reckon that was a tactic, supported really stretching their defence by putting Petty up forward the second half, having Lanford push into the forward line as a marking option, ditto for Culley.

We negated some if their key strengths- not only did we frustrate their ability to transition the ball, by doing so they couldn't get their overlap handball going in way that creates space inside their 50 and lots of one on one contests (the one where King outmarked Tmac on the lead was the perfect example of how they like to move the ball from the back half and create space inside 50, a method that had neen.the key ro their high scoring this season - but that King mark was very much the exception to the rule yesterday)

In many ways, apart fom how quickly players moved the ball on after a mark, with the focis on territory and winning contests, clearances and stoppages, yesterday was more similar to the method we used in 2021 - 2023 than our method in the preseason and first 3 games.

@binman could you please explain more about the player ratings? If I remember correctly you mentioned champion data.

How is that related to NBA's +/-? If at all.

what was the expected scores?

it felt like gc17 could not miss, dobbing goals from 50+ on the boundary with their wrong foot

I’ve got a suggestion for another statistic to add to the collection: throws missed by the umpires. Suns would have won that one by a country mile!

14 hours ago, binman said:

Thanks @WheeloRatings . Is the handball metres gained for us right?

If yes, points to clever coaching by King I reckon as our forward handball has been a notable feature of our game this season, averaging high 200s metres gained by hand coming into this game (Suns are #1 average something like 420 metres gained by hand)

We only had 63 in this match, which had to be due to an instruction an tactic

I noticed that we kicked the ball off the ground far more often than before. Perhaps that was instead of taking possession and then either kicking it or using the forward handball. It also made the game faster.

This weeks Stats Files (and the next couple of weeks) packaged in the main podcast while I'm away.