NON-MFC: Round 22

[No10 434]

2 minutes ago, Dee-tonator said:

Given all the other results in this round, how important could Tholstrup's missed goal chance turn out to be?

 

You can’t possibly put that game on Tholstrup. He got to the position to take the mark, then took responsibility in going back.

This, in the fourth qtr of a tough match, is amazing to see. Very excited for what he could be.

[Little Goffy 13,957]

Bizarrely, this weekend's results mean that mathematically we can still make finals. Would obviously need to win both games and for at least three of the four - Essendon, Carlton, Hawthorn and Footscray - to lose both games.

Of course, we are also a mathematical chance to drop into the bottom 4 if we lose both, St Kilda win one and the Crows win both remaining games.

 

[Nascent 8,607]

Demonland started a thread about this but it's hiding away in the other sports section.

Jess Stenson just came 13th in the marathon not long ago. Bloody huge effort.

Sister of Jack Trengove.

Edited August 11 by Nascent

[Demonstone 21,731]

On 10/08/2024 at 16:45, John Demonic said:

The Cats are going to win the flag aren't they.

But ... but ... @Clintosaurus assured us that it's all rigged by AFL HQ and that they have decided that Carlton will be the 2024 Premiers by beating Collingwood in the Grand Final.

[Demonstone 21,731]

5 minutes ago, Little Goffy said:

Bizarrely, this weekend's results mean that mathematically we can still make finals.

Even if we win both our remaining games, the percentage gap is too vast.

[Jaded No More 67,605]

1 hour ago, Ollie fan said:

Of our top six players: Brayshaw out for the whole season, Oliver a shell, Trac out for half a season, and now May out.

It's not how many you lose, it's who they are.

Also missed Lever for 4 games, Gawn missed 2, Bowey 8 weeks, Salem I don’t even know how many, Petty off no pre season and a serious injury, no Spargo, Melksham out for half the season, and the list goes on. 
And while some of those players are not make or break, what the sum of the injuries does is force you to play lesser or younger players for way longer than you would normally. 
That takes its toll over a long season.

May is probably a 2 point difference yesterday as an example. 
 

[Dee-tonator 158]

24 minutes ago, No10 said:

You can’t possibly put that game on Tholstrup. He got to the position to take the mark, then took responsibility in going back.

This, in the fourth qtr of a tough match, is amazing to see. Very excited for what he could be.

I don't blame Tholstrup at all. All our players made plenty of mistakes but he happened to be the unlucky one who missed a potentially match-winning chance. It would just be unfortunate if a series of fluke results means that one late missed shot costs us a finals spot (which is still unlikely, anyway).

Edited August 11 by Dee-tonator

[Gawndy the Great 9,008]

10 minutes ago, Jaded No More said:

Also missed Lever for 4 games, Gawn missed 2, Bowey 8 weeks, Salem I don’t even know how many, Petty off no pre season and a serious injury, no Spargo, Melksham out for half the season, and the list goes on. 
And while some of those players are not make or break, what the sum of the injuries does is force you to play lesser or younger players for way longer than you would normally. 
That takes its toll over a long season.

May is probably a 2 point difference yesterday as an example. 
 

We have the 3rd least played games lost to injuries before this round. Think of Collingwood, Lions etc. They have twice as many games lost due to injury than us and are sitting above us. 
 

It is not the injuries.

[Jaded No More 67,605]

Just now, Gawndy the Great said:

We have the 3rd least played games lost to injuries before this round. Think of Collingwood, Lions etc. They have twice as many games lost due to injury than us and are sitting above us. 
 

It is not the injuries.

Pies are sitting where we are. 

I never said it’s the injuries alone, but it’s absolutely part of the reason. On paper Clarry and Petty missed two games, but we all know they never got close to hitting form because they had interrupted pre seasons. 

There are a number of factors for why we are where we are, it’s not just injuries, but they certainly didn’t help. In a season so tight, the number of games we’ve lost by under a goal is the difference between 13th and 4th. 

[fr_ap 2,425]

1 hour ago, No10 said:

Our player management has been a joke. Max should never have been playing against WC, it was the absolute clear opportunity to rest him, instead he gets injured. TMac was having the season nobody thought possible, we never managed him and lost form at the moment we needed to win. Windsor, never managed like every other first year player until he’s injured. Viney, up and down throughout the season, never managed, inconsistent and doesn’t give a player like Sparrow the chance to step into a more central role. No player management and that’s been a failure over multiple seasons, none more than this year.

We were a mathematical chance at making finals if we won against Port. All those unlikely results are now coming true: Ess go down to Suns. Blues lost to Hawks. Crows up against Dogs. All of them managed to come off, except us, we lost.

 

Bang 

It is something we do so poorly 

[At the break of Gawn 4,400]

Real chance that the Saints will overtake us this season which will be good to move up in the draft. I think we’ll finish the season with 6 straight losses.

[Clintosaurus 7,542]

38 minutes ago, Demonstone said:

But ... but ... @Clintosaurus assured us that it's all rigged by AFL HQ and that they have decided that Carlton will be the 2024 Premiers by beating Collingwood in the Grand Final.

Don't think I said who would win......

[Little Goffy 13,957]

Just a quick note for the injury debate;

Every Melbourne player who has been in a recent all-Australian shortlist;

Gawn, Petracca, Oliver, Brayshaw, Fritsch, Viney, May, Lever and Salem.

Major in-season disruption for Salem, May, Petracca, Gawn and Lever and of course Brayshaw. Nevermind Oliver's shot pre-season.

Meanwhile

Every Collingwood player who has been in a recent all-Australian shortlist;

Pendlebury, Moore, Daicos, Daicos, Quaynor, Crisp, Maynard, Sidebottom, Howe, De Goey.

So, the entire Magpie core has missed about five games plus De Goey. Nevermind that three of those players are older than any player at Melbourne.

 

So, yes, the injury factor is clearly significant.

As far as I'm concerned, if you're pretending otherwise then you are just looking for excuses to bag the club.

 

[dazzledavey36 52,694]

55 minutes ago, Jaded No More said:

Also missed Lever for 4 games, Gawn missed 2, Bowey 8 weeks, Salem I don’t even know how many, Petty off no pre season and a serious injury, no Spargo, Melksham out for half the season, and the list goes on. 
And while some of those players are not make or break, what the sum of the injuries does is force you to play lesser or younger players for way longer than you would normally. 
That takes its toll over a long season.

May is probably a 2 point difference yesterday as an example. 
 

Every teams has an injury list.. we've actually had one of the betters injury list then majority of clubs this year.

Look at Brisbane's with their ACL's to both the key players in Kiddy Coleman (close to winning a Norm smith) and Linc McCarthy who's pretty much their ANB clone in terms of forward half pressure and importance structure wise.

They've also lost Darcy Gardiner who played in their grand final last year and would have been a solid depth defender for them.

They've had their 2nd best key defender in Jack Payne who's missed 8 games this season and have had to move Hipwood down to defence.

They've had Will Ashcroft who's one of their gun midfield talent missed half a year with an ACL injury.

They too have played young kids and also brought in soldiers when needed.

What's their excuse?

[Jibroni 4,909]

Crazy season but hopefully the football gods will keep Carlton, Bombers and Pies out of the finals.

 

[dees189227 12,023]

Dam you bulldogs. Why couldn't you win. 

The door is still open for the pies to make finals

[Jaded No More 67,605]

10 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Every teams has an injury list.. we've actually had one of the betters injury list then majority of clubs this year.

Look at Brisbane's with their ACL's to both the key players in Kiddy Coleman (close to winning a Norm smith) and Linc McCarthy who's pretty much their ANB clone in terms of forward half pressure and importance structure wise.

They've also lost Darcy Gardiner who played in their grand final last year and would have been a solid depth defender for them.

They've had their 2nd best key defender in Jack Payne who's missed 8 games this season and have had to move Hipwood down to defence.

They've had Will Ashcroft who's one of their gun midfield talent missed half a year with an ACL injury.

They too have played young kids and also brought in soldiers when needed.

What's their excuse?

I already said that it’s not just injuries that have killed our season, so not sure why I have to debate this point again. All I mentioned is that it’s too simplistic to just list games lost thru injury. I mean why is Gus not included? He’s missed 22 games. We planned our season with him being on the list, only to lose him on the eve of the season without being able to replace him via draft or trade.

Likewise Joel Smith.

Brisbane started like a dumpster fire and picked up pace as the year progressed. They’ve done very well and credit to them. Let’s see if they fail again when it counts. My guess is they will.

Let’s also see how Carlton goes now if they’ve lost Curnow for a while. Don’t think they’ll make the 8 without him. 

Edited August 11 by Jaded No More

[Redleg 39,987]

1 hour ago, Gawndy the Great said:

We have the 3rd least played games lost to injuries before this round. Think of Collingwood, Lions etc. They have twice as many games lost due to injury than us and are sitting above us. 
 

It is not the injuries.

There is a difference when you look at who is injured.

Trac is a worse loss than some VFL player.

[Jibroni 4,909]

4 hours ago, Ethan Tremblay said:

If Carlton don’t make the finals, that’s gotta be one of the biggest chokes of all time. To miss with that list would be harder than making the finals. 

To be fair their fall from grace 2 years ago still takes some beating:

8	BULLDOGS	12	10	48	108.9
9	CARLTON	12	10	48	108.3

Edited August 11 by Jibroni

[Jaded No More 67,605]

1 hour ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Every teams has an injury list.. we've actually had one of the betters injury list then majority of clubs this year.

Look at Brisbane's with their ACL's to both the key players in Kiddy Coleman (close to winning a Norm smith) and Linc McCarthy who's pretty much their ANB clone in terms of forward half pressure and importance structure wise.

They've also lost Darcy Gardiner who played in their grand final last year and would have been a solid depth defender for them.

They've had their 2nd best key defender in Jack Payne who's missed 8 games this season and have had to move Hipwood down to defence.

They've had Will Ashcroft who's one of their gun midfield talent missed half a year with an ACL injury.

They too have played young kids and also brought in soldiers when needed.

What's their excuse?

Also thought this was an interesting one re: Brisbane 

[dazzledavey36 52,694]

1 hour ago, Jaded No More said:

I already said that it’s not just injuries that have killed our season, so not sure why I have to debate this point again. All I mentioned is that it’s too simplistic to just list games lost thru injury. I mean why is Gus not included? He’s missed 22 games. We planned our season with him being on the list, only to lose him on the eve of the season without being able to replace him via draft or trade.

Likewise Joel Smith.

Brisbane started like a dumpster fire and picked up pace as the year progressed. They’ve done very well and credit to them. Let’s see if they fail again when it counts. My guess is they will.

Let’s also see how Carlton goes now if they’ve lost Curnow for a while. Don’t think they’ll make the 8 without him. 

Brisbane planned around Gardiner, Coleman and McCarthy for the year also, yet they've covered them off just fine.

Turner is literally doing what we've gotten with Smith. That or he'd be playing at Casey. Barely a loss.

We had opportunities to fill either more midfield depth or ruck support for Max via the mid season draft but instead we decided to bypass that and look how's that's come about.

We're relying on our current best player who's had to play on one leg with zero ruck support because we're asking one of our brightest key forward to help out and now he looks physically spent instead of just focusing on his forward craft full time.

Not sure why you've randomly brought up Curnow, they've been pathetic the past few weeks even with him playing and contributing. 

Edited August 11 by dazzledavey36

[DistrACTION Jackson 8,283]

2 hours ago, Jaded No More said:

Pies are sitting where we are. 

I never said it’s the injuries alone, but it’s absolutely part of the reason. On paper Clarry and Petty missed two games, but we all know they never got close to hitting form because they had interrupted pre seasons. 

There are a number of factors for why we are where we are, it’s not just injuries, but they certainly didn’t help. In a season so tight, the number of games we’ve lost by under a goal is the difference between 13th and 4th. 

It also doesn’t count Brayshaw or Smith.

[No. 31 1,057]

1 hour ago, Jaded No More said:

 

Let’s also see how Carlton goes now if they’ve lost Curnow for a while. Don’t think they’ll make the 8 without him. 

Against Collingwood when he came off, Carlton's attack actually improved because it was no longer a one dimensional open book and players were looking who is free rather than the default setting of bomb it on top of Charlie's head,  when he is always surrounded by multiple defenders.

I was at the MCG today, it was a trainwreck for the Blues! Worst performance in quite a few years. The Hawks were awesome BTW, playing like Carlton did late last year.

If Carlton can't beat West Coast and St Kilda, they have no place being in the 8 in 2024, simple as that. Then its a case of licking wounds, culling some of the list (and football department) and going again in 2025. It is still a squad that has the core of a potential Premiership side, but it won't be happening this year. The perpetually injured players simply need to be culled, some of them have talent but they are list cloggers due to to availability issues.

[Jaded No More 67,605]

37 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Brisbane planned around Gardiner, Coleman and McCarthy for the year also, yet they've covered them off just fine.

Turner is literally doing what we've gotten with Smith. That or he'd be playing at Casey. Barely a loss.

We had opportunities to fill either more midfield depth or ruck support for Max via the mid season draft but instead we decided to bypass that and look how's that's come about.

We're relying on our current best player who's had to play on one leg with zero ruck support because we're asking one of our brightest key forward to help out and now he looks physically spent instead of just focusing on his forward craft full time.

Not sure why you've randomly brought up Curnow, they've been pathetic the past few weeks even with him playing and contributing. 

You of course ignored the post where Brisbane is ranked number one for the number of players who played every game. 

I don’t disagree with you that we needed to get support for Max, but that doesn’t change the fact that we were never going to replace someone the quality of Gus or Trac or an underperforming Clarry in a mid season draft. 

I brought up Curnow because every side has injuries, but some players who get injured have a far bigger impact than others. IMO Trac is far more important to Melbourne than any of the players Brisbane have lost to injury, not to mention a far better player. 
For example I think the Dogs can’t win a flag without Bont even if the rest of their list is fit. 
Whereas Sydney bat very deep in their midfield so losing Mills didn’t hurt them. 

The point again being that the number of injuries is neither here nor there. It’s the impact they have on your side. Like last year, losing Melksham who is not exactly a premiership winning make or break player, but as you’ve noted yourself, was a massive out for us because our forward line was already down with other injuries. 
This year the injuries and lack of form has hit our midfield hard and it’s showed.

Our midfield numbers have been atrocious in many games, but again let me be clear, that injuries alone are not the only problem. Set ups, game plan, fitness have all been major issues for us this year. Injuries just made these things worse, and can’t be brushed off as an excuse. We all know that having a healthy list is one of the most important factors when it comes to winning a flag. 

[titan_uranus 24,558]

4 hours ago, Dee-tonator said:

Given all the other results in this round, how important could Tholstrup's missed goal chance turn out to be?

4 hours ago, DubDee said:

it’s looking like 13 wins and high percentage won’t be enough so we were no chance even if we won

@Dee-tonator‘s right on this one. 

Had we won last night, this would be the equation for finals:

- we beat GC and Collingwood

- Carlton loses to WC and St Kilda

- Fremantle loses to GWS and Port

- Essendon loses to at least one of Sydney and Brisbane

Obviously no guarantees this all happens but Carlton are in free fall and have a stack of injuries which opens the door to them going 0-2, and Fremantle right now doesn’t look likely to beat GWS or Port either. 

The only way this season gets any worse is if we find out after all is said and done that 13 wins would have been enough, and we end up on 12.