2024 Phantom Drafts

[Roddog 89]

1 hour ago, Demon Head said:

Zero Hanger has their second edition of the AFL Mock Draft - 2024 AFL Mock Draft: Picks 1-27 (second edition)

They’ve got Melbourne down for Jagga Smith and Harry Armstrong.

 

The thought of getting Armstrong is very disheartening. What happened last time we took a key forward at pick 9?

[Yze_13 297]

Saw this on Bigfooty - some excellent analysis

This year extremely tough with such a deep even pool. There will be quite a few trades and Richmond's haul like never before makes things certainly very interesting. I think more picks will be taken than thought. A lot of clubs have freed list spots and have more flexibility than seems to have been noticed - 5th and 6th and perhaps even a 7th rounder could come into play. Either way it's a fatter mock draft than the likely reality, but with more concepts and more players under consideration, it's a bit more interesting.
 

1. Richmond - Sam Lalor (GWV Rebels)
2. Brisbane - Levi Ashcroft (Sandringham Dragons)
3. North Melbourne - Alix Tauru (Gippsland Power)
4. Carlton - Sid Draper (South Adelaide)
5. Adelaide - Harvey Langford (Dandendong Stingrays)
6. Melbourne - Jagga Smith (Oakleigh Chargers)
7. Richmond - Finn O'Sullivan (Oakleigh Chargers)
8. Essendon - Isaac Kako (Calder Cannons)
9. St Kilda - Jobe Shanahan (Bendigo Pioneers)
10. St Kilda - Tobie Travaglia (Gippsland Power)
11. Melbourne - Bo Allan (Peel Thunder)
12. Gold Coast - Leo Lombard (Suns Academy)
13. Richmond - Murphy Reid (Sandringham Dragons)
14. Richmond - Harry Armstrong (Sandringham Dragons)
15. West Coast - Luke Trainor (Sandringham Dragons)
16. Port Adelaide - Josh Smillie (Eastern Ranges)
17. Fremantle - Joe Berry (Murray Bushrangers)
18. GWS - Taj Hotton (Sandringham Dragons)
19. GWS - Xavier Lindsay (Gippsland Power)
20. Western Bulldogs - Angus Clarke (Glenelg)
21. Richmond - Harrison Oliver (Sandringham Dragons)
22. Brisbane - Sam Marshall (Sandringham Dragons)
23. Sydney - Jack Whitlock (Murray Bushrangers)
24. Richmond - Cooper Hynes (Dandenong Stingrays)
25. GWS - Tate Delmenico (Woodville/West Torrens)
26. Sydney - Matt Whitlock (Murray Bushrangers)
27. Richmond - Jesse Dattoli (Northern Knights)
28. Richmond - Noah Mraz (Dandenong Stingrays)
29. Western Bulldogs - Hamish Davis (Claremont)
30. West Coast - Jonty Faull (GWV Rebels)
31. Port Adelaide - Kayle Gerreyn (West Perth)
32. Fremantle - Tom Sims (Northern Knights)
33. St Kilda - Luke Urquhart (East Fremantle)
34. Hawthorn - Alex Dodson (Sturt)
35. Western Bulldogs - James Barrat (Bendigo Pioneers)
36. Port Adelaide - Christian Moraes (Eastern Rangers)
37. GWS - Jasper Alger (Oakleigh Chargers)
38. GWS - Logan Smith (Giants Academy)
39. Sydney - Oliver Hannaford (GWV Rebels)
40. Carlton - Ben Camporeale (Glenelg)
41. Geelong - Lachlan Jaques (Geelong Falcons)
42. St Kilda - Clancy Dennis (Claremont)
43. Western Bulldogs - Rhys Unwin (GWV Rebels)
44. St Kilda - Adrian Cole (Sandringham Dragons)
45. Port Adelaide - Charlie Nicholls (Central Districts)
46. Sydney - Joel Cochran (Swans Academy)
47. Collingwood - Harry O'Farrell (Calder Cannons)
48. Essendon - Floyd Burmeister (GWV Rebels)
49. Essendon - Ned Bowman (Norwood)
50. Collingwood - Josh Dolan (Sandringham Dragons)
51. Geelong - Sam Davidson (Richmond VFL)
52. Collingwood - Jack Ough (GWV Rebels)
53. Adelaide - Tyler Welsh (Woodville/West Torrens)
54. North Melbourne - Josh Murphy (Murray Bushrangers)
55. Essendon - Hugh Boxshall (Claremont)
56. Collingwood - Doug Kerr (Oakleigh Chargers)
57. Fremantle - Jaxon Artemis (South Fremantle)
58. GWS - Cooper Bell (Giants Academy)
59. Carlton - Will Hayes (Claremont)
60. Carlton - Charles West (Woodville West Torrens)
61. Brisbane - Ty Gallop (Maroochydore)
62. Gold Coast - Thomas McKay (Glenelg)
63. Hawthorn - Tom Gross (Oakleigh Chargers)
64. Carlton - Lucas Camporeale (Glenelg)
65. Gold Coast - Aiden Riddle (Claremont)
66. West Coast - Cody Angove (Claremont)
67. Geelong - Gabriel Stumpf (Northern Knights)
68. Hawthorn - Archer Day-Wicks (Bendigo Pioneers)
69. Richmond - Bailey McKenzie (Sandringham Dragons)
70. North Melbourne - Ben Kennedy (Murray Bushrangers)
71. West Coast - Riley Bice (Werribee VFL)
72. Adelaide - Jacob Molier (Sturt)
73. Melbourne - Jay Polkinghorne (Norwood)
74. St Kilda - Lachlan Blakiston (East Fremantle)
75. West Coast - Malakai Champion (Subiaco)
76. Essendon - Mitchell Kirkwood-Scott (Sandringham Dragons)
77. Fremantle - Charlie Burke (Subiaco)
78. Essendon - Jayden Nguyen (Calder Cannons)
79. Western Bulldogs - Patrick Retscko (Oakleigh Chargers)
80. GWS - Sam Toner (Narre Warren)
81. Geelong - Xavier Ivisic (Geelong Falcons)
82. Port Adelaide - Harry Charleson (GWV Rebels)
83. Sydney - Oliver Warburton (Murray Bushrangers)
84. Richmond - Isiah Winder (South Fremantle)
85. North Melbourne - Max Rohr (Fremantle)
86. Melbourne - Boyd Woodcock (Southport VFL)
87. Essendon - Will Hoare (Essendon VFL)
88. West Coast - Tom Bell (South Fremantle)
89. Brisbane - Keighton Matofai-Forbes (Westen Jets)

Adelaide -

5. Harvey Langford 18, 190cm - midfielder/forward - Dandenong Stingrays
53. Tyler Welsh 18, 191cm - forward - Woodville/West Torrens
72. Jacob Molier 18, 201cm - ruck - Sturt

It's a possibility Carlton vaulted ahead of the Crows so that it had access to the best South Australian in the pool, midfielder Sid Draper, and in that scenario, Adelaide would probably be left to choose between Harvey Langford and Jagga Smith. In this scenario, the size and physically of Langford wins out, with his thumping left foot and ability to play as a marking forward winning out. Father/Son Tyler Welsh also helps in that regard. With a powerhouse build, the son of former Kangaroo and Crow leading forward Scott, is a ready-to-go third tall forward with some X-factor. If the Crows take a third selection (they cleared some list space pre-draft), the extremely athletic Molier could be an option as a developmental ruckman.

Brisbane -

2. Levi Ashcroft 17, 179cm - midfielder - Sandringham Dragons
22. Sam Marshall 18, 185cm - midfielder - Sandringham Dragons
61. Ty Gallop 18, 194cm - key forward - Maroochydore
87. Keighton Matofai-Forbes 18, 188cm - forward - Western Jets

Levi Ashcroft and Sam Marshall are matched at their likely spots, giving the Lions a tremendous leg up on the competition before new bidding rules take place. Levi I have rated as a slightly lesser prospect than brother Will but he is a ready-to-go future top line midfielder. Marshall is a hard-working midfielder who may take time to break through such will be the density of Brisbane's midfield, but he is a player. Brisbane may have to absorb a bid at some point for bullocking 194cm key forward Ty Gallop who has something about him and covers the ground well for a player of his robust physique. Keighton Matofai-Forbes is raw but there is some Cam Rayner about his game which may entice the Lions to expend with a list sport if they don't receive any more NGA bids - ruckman Tom Gillett being a possibility along with defender Fergus McFadyen.

Carlton -

4. Sid Draper 18, 182cm - midfielder - South Adelaide
40. Ben Camporeale 18, 185cm - midfielder - Glenelg
59. Will Hayes 18, 178cm - small forward - Clarememont
60. Charles West 18, 195cm - key forward - Woodville/West Torrens
64. Lucas Camporeale 18, 186cm - wingman - Glenelg

The Blues trade up and get a premium talent in Draper - a ready-made breakaway midfielder who brings different ingredients to the table than Carlton's incumbent centre square stars. The Camporeales join as father-sons, Ben's inside game will work well the Blues current midfield mix, while Lucas brings a more outside game to the table. South Australian West is a big, strong-bodied key position player/emergency ruckman who will bring a point of difference to Carlton's spine with his bullocking style and thick physique. Small West Aussie Hayes will add some speed and agility around the packs and some goalkicking bite, something the Blues will covet at some point having lost Matt Owies and Jack Martin in the off-season.

Collingwood -

47. Harry O'Farrell 18, 196cm - key back - Calder Cannons
50. Josh Dolan 18, 178cm - small forward/midfielder - Sandringham Dragons
52. Jack Ough 17, 194cm - wing/midfielder - GWV Rebels
56. Doug Kerr 18, 192cm - medium defender - Oakleigh Chargers

The Pies look to the loing-term future and select O'Farrell as their primary key defensive prospect, before drafting Jordan De Goey mini-me Dolan, a blond-locked 178cm midfielder/half forward, in this scenario. Ough is a tall 194cm midfielder/wingman who has a good feel for the game with neat disposal. The game slows up for him a bit when he has ball in hand. Had Kerr not torn an ACL this year, he'd be ready to go in 2025. The St Kevins captain is a strongly built utility, primarily a midfielder/forward now but once played a promising game on Logan Morris as a 15 year old at Coates League level quite a few years ago. Kerr tested well in early screening and I'm sure the Pies match to retain him or as in this scenario protect him by selecting him with their final pick recently acquired in a pick trade with Brisbane.

Essendon -

8. Isaac Kako 18, 175cm - small forward - Calder Cannons
48. Floyd Burmeister 18, 198cm - ruck/forward - GWV Rebels
49. Ned Bowman 18, 186cm - wing/forward - Norwood
55. Hugh Boxshall 18, 187cm - midfielder - Claremont
76. Mitchell Kirkwood-Scott 18, 181cm - small defender - Sandringham Dragons
78. Jayden Nguyen 18, 177cm - small forward - Calder Cannons
87. Will Hoare 24, 198cm - key defender - Essendon VFL

Bomber fans will love their NGA additions, Kako and Nguyen. Kako is an incredibly tricky small forward and an elite talent. Nguyen is a lesser ranked player but an exciting, diminutive player who who can play in a range in a positions with an abundance of speed and nimbleness. In Burmeister, Essendon has added an incredibly athletic long-term ruck/resting forward prospect. Bowman gives Essendon some X-factor as a quick, high-leaping medium marking forward or wingman. Hugh Boxshall become a spruik player leading into the draft after some terrific combine results added to some good tape coming out of the West. He is the type of inside bull the Bombers will covet. Kirkwood-Scott is a line-breaking transition defender with pace and a penetrating kick. Hoare has impressed for Essendon's VFL program as a tall key back will good interception skills. I fully suspect Essendon to trade back into the draft at some point, looking for a key forward, with Jobe Shanahan being one of their primary targets if he is somehow attainable.

Fremantle -

17. Joe Berry 18, 180cm - small forward - Gippsland Power
32. Tom Sims 18, 199cm - key forward - Northern Knights
57. Jaxon Artemis 18, 180cm - half back/wing - South Fremantle
77. Charlie Burke 18, 183cm - wing - Subiaco

The rumours flow that Freo are interested are interested in Berry and I think one of the reasons for that is that they see some Caleb Serong in his play. Berry is quite similar to a bottom age Serong and if the Dockers project a similar outcome then they would be out of their mind not to go in this direction and try a re-print of their star rover. Comparisons aside, Berry is a very sold high half forward prospect at this stage with upside to play higher up the ground in time. Sims is a close-to-200cm key forward who launches at the ball and reaches it at its highest point. He may take a bit of time to be AFL ready but he is an exciting talent who will be hard to defend and a likely steal at pick 32. Artemis would be a steal at 57, he is a neat kicking half-back/wing type who plays with composure. The Dockers round out their draft with another local West Australian prospect in Charlie Burke, a wing/utility with a well-rounded game.

Geelong -

41. Lachlan Jaques 18, 184cm - defender - Geelong Falcons
51. Sam Davidson 22, 191cm - forward - Richmond (VFL)
67. Gabriel Stumpf 18, 194cm - key forward - Northern Knights
81. Xavier Ivisic 18, 180cm - midfielder - Geelong Falcons

The Cats bookend their draft with two local products. Lachlan Jaques is a medium-sized intercept marking defender who has the potential to be an excellent third or fourth tall defender in the Nick Haynes-mould if he can wash away his penchant for the odd goal-conceding moment of madness. He does do plenty of good things though and has controlled junior games from the back half this year. Ivisic is a hard-working local midfielder. He is on the small side and that threatens his draft standing. I think the Cats could use a ready-made forward option and Richmond's VFL star Davidson fits that bill as a would-be complement to Shannon Neal and Jeremy Cameron. Stumpf is a tall, lean key forward who shone at the combine but is a project player. The Cats could also look to local Daniel Lowther as another key forward option in the Rookie Draft. It's an area they are thin on for depth.

Gold Coast -

12. Leo Lombard 18, 178cm - midfielder - Gold Coast Suns Academy
62. Tom McKay 18, 191cm - tall swingman - Glenelg
68. Aiden Riddle 19, 199cm - ruckman - Claremont

Lombard is one the most pedigreed juniors for a long time and has seemingly been playing under 18 championships football for a decade. He's a good player, a tough and skilful small midfielder who should play straightway. McKay will take some time as he's very skinny but he's a talented 190cm-plus swingman, able to play as a matchup defender but also showing some forward craft at junior level in SA. He's not getting much buzz but is a highly promising player. Riddle is one of the better ruckmen in the pool and has used his 19th year on Earth adding the ability to play forward to his game, but also improving his hands in close and his kicking touch. It's possible a bid may come for rangy utility Caleb Nancarrow but he's more likely a category B option at best. Not so classy half-back/midfielder Zeke Uwland, a likely top 5 pick in the 2025 draft, one of three of four exciting NGA prospects the Suns have on the way in 12 months' time.

GWS -

18. Taj Hotton 18, 182cm - midfielder/forward - Sandringham Dragons
19. Xavier Lindsay 18, 183cm - wing/half back - Gippsland Power
25. Tate Delmenico 17, 190cm - defender - Woodville/West Torrens
37. Jasper Alger 17, 182cm - small forward - Oakleigh Chargers
38. Logan Smith 18, 204cm - ruckman - GWS Academy
57. Cooper Bell 17, 198cm - full back - GWS Academy
80. Sam Toner 19, 186cm - forward - Narre Warren

It's been an eventful off-season for the Giants, losing some key ingredients and they look to offset that with a big draft here. Taj Hotton could have gone in the top 3 if he hadn't done an ACL and could well go much higher than this. He is a supremely talented mid/wing/half-forward that will obviously take time now but will be a terrific pick for the patient club that gets him with a bit of luck. Lindsay gives them a ball-user on the outside to help offset their off-season departures. He's highly-rated by many but I worry about his physicality and that he won't be freely given the space he's been blessed with at junior level. I'm clearly a big fan of Delmenico, a 190cm third tall defender with a lovely pair of hands who reads the game well. He's one of the youngest players in the pool and one of a few South Australians I rank much higher than consensus. Check Melbourne's summary for the main one. Jasper Alger is an agile small-to-medium forward who is good at ground level but also a clever aerialist for his size. He likes to play close to goal and will have a great mentor in Toby Greene. GWS' Academy selections are good building blocks for the future - Smith being a long-term ruck prospect with a tremendous frame for the position and Bell a rude-haired, key defensive pillar who is a hard to beat one on one. Sam Toner has become the nominal smokey of the draft having spent most of the year playing suburban football. He's a do-it-all forward, dangerous in the air but also in transition and a good finisher. Another late pick contender for the Giants is Connor Evans who could appeal to clubs late in the draft as rebounding medium defender and the Giants might look at this type of player to offset the loss of Isaac Cumming and Harry Perryman in particular, although Delmenico will help in this regard. Rover Josiah Delana is a likely Category B rookie.

Hawthorn

34. Alex Dodson 18, 203cm - ruckman - Sturt
63. Tom Gross 18, 181cm - midfielder - Oakleigh Chargers
67. Archer Day-Wicks 18, 186cm - forward - Bendigo Pioneers

Having heavily invested in its defence already, the Hawks use the draft to address other areas. Dodson falls them here at 34, giving the Hawks their ruckman of the future. With a basketball pedigree, he has the tools to one day be a premier AFL ruckman. Gross is small midfielder and defensive forward who lacks size but brings a high pressure rating and workrate. Day-Wicks is a medium forward who has an excellent aerial game and plays a lot taller than his described height. Nuggety midfielder Cody Anderson will be a likely Category B option for Hawthorn under this scenario.

Melbourne -

6. Jagga Smith 18, 181cm - midfielder - Oakleigh Chargers
11. Bo Allan 18, 190cm - midfielder/half-back - Peel Thunder
73. Jay Polkinghorne 18, 192cm - key forward - Norwood
86. Boyd Woodcock 24, 179cm - rover/small forward - Southport (VFL)

It's probably a case of sit back and see what falls for the Dees with their first pick and in this scenario, with Harvey Langford off the table, I have them taking Jagga Smith, who is probably one of the more solid picks in the draft and a nice counterpointing fit for Melbourne's existing midfield and their likely next pick. Allan is a tremendous athlete with the protypical modern AFL body who plays at a manic pace and embraces collision. There is some Beau Waters characteristics (Waters being the most courageous player I've seen come through the system with the highest rated intangibles) and leadership appeal with this West Australian. He'll be ready to go as a half-back before becoming a big-bodied mid and with some added polish, should be a very good player. Interestingly, with Allan, the Dees will now have a war-chest of WA talent to potentially throw at the Eagles if Harley Reid ever wanted to return to Victoria. Jay Polkinghorne is my fantasy pick for the Dees. Believe it or not I have him rated in my top 25. He's a key forward with very good marking ability and a solid set shot for goal. Injury robbed him of most of his season but he came home strong featuring in Norwood's SANFL reserves premiership before being BOG in Adelaide's private school grand final. He hails from a country town five hours from South Australia's capital so let's hope Jason Taylor wants to bring in another country SA kid to add to Harry Petty and Kade Chandler. In my opinion, it's a mistake we haven't held a midrange pick to collect at some point in the 40s to try to guarantee his acquisition. 24 year old Former Power rover/small forward Boyd Woodcock has developed into one of - if not - the best players in the NEAFL, with some added strings to his bow, and deserves another chance at AFL level. The Dees could use some crumbing depth and nip around the packs. Rebounding third tall defenders Ben Kennedy and Connor Evans were in consideration also for this pick. I couldn't manipulate Kennedy to last long enough - another one of my favourite prospects that no-one talks about.

North Melbourne -

3. Alix Tauru - 17, 193cm - key defender - Gippsland Power
54. Josh Murphy 17, 190cm - forward - Murray Bushrangers
70. Ben Kennedy 18, 186cm - defender - Murray Bushrangers
85. Max Rohr 19, 197cm - key forward - Claremont

The Kangaroos are in a pincer movement whereby their pick doesn't suit the flow of their list, even more so after their trade period. In a mock without trades, I have to have them taking Tauru here, even though I think holding and picking up a midfielder might make more sense and then trading their future first to get a Tauru, Trainor, Armstrong or Shanahan. In this setup they get the 'Flying Viking' Tauru, a pack-marking defender with a lot of upside. The pick just doesn't marry the talent rating in this draft in my opinion, which is why North has a dilemma on its hands and needs trade bedfellows. Murphy is one of the youngest players in the pool and a third tall forward with a diverse skillset. Rohr is a 197cm ruckman from WA, who looked promising as a key forward at the National Championships, something he hadn't shown much of before, and the Roos will likely see him a as forward/ruck hybrid for the future. Ben Kennedy is a third to fourth tall defender who intercepts well but can also carry the footy with a burst of pace. His season output doesn't equate to the quality of the player - no shock if his name called out at some point.

Port Adelaide -

16. Josh Smillie 18, 194cm - midfielder/utility - Eastern Ranges
31. Kayle Gerreyn 18, 199cm - ruck/forward - West Perth
36. Christian Moraes 18, 182cm - wingman - Eastern Ranges
45. Charlie Nicholls 18, 197cm - tall forward - Central Districts
82. Harry Charleson 18, 182cm - small defender - GWV Rebels

Smillie would is a great slider pick here for the Power and certainly a contrast for their midfield. He could easily go at Pick 3 without surprising, but as a I worked my way through and you have player v player discussions, other options seemed to win out. He's got a bit of David Mundy about him and if he can nuance his way around AFL players like he does juniors he will likely end up the best player from the pool. Gerreyn is a big backsided forward/ruck who has had a very productive season and could likely play straightaway for the Power as its back up ruckman/third tall forward. He will add an extra dimension to Port's big man stocks and help cover for the loss of Charlie Dixon. Moraes is a hard-running wingman and the long-term replacement for Travis Boak. He could easily go much higher. As could small defender Harry Charleson, who links up with his brother Lachlan at Alberton and has shown an ability to stand up in pressure cooker situations through his top age year. Charlie Nicholls is a South Australian 197cm key position prospect who can play at both ends, either as a matchup key defender or a rangy, ground covering key forward - he has the raw tools to be a good long term prospect.

Richmond -

1.Sam Lalor 18, 187cm - midfielder/forward - GWV Rebels
7. Finn O'Sullivan 18, 182cm - midfielder - Oakleigh Charges
13. Murphy Reid 18, 181cm - midfielder - Sandringham Dragons
14. Harry Armstrong 18, 193cm - key forward - Sandringham Dragons
21. Harrison Oliver 18, 181cm - small defender - Sandringham Dragons
24. Cooper Hynes 18, 190cm - wing/forward - Dandenong Stingrays
27. Jesse Dattoli 18, 178cm - small forward - Northern Knights
28. Noah Mraz 18, 198cm - key defender - Dandenong Stingrays
69. Bailey McKenzie 18, 191cm - forward - Sandringham Dragons
84. Isiah Winder 22, 180cm - wingman - South Fremantle

Incredible draft haul. Lalor looks and plays like Dusty, but is not as good a player coming out. That said he has all the tools to be a fine AFL player - neat disposal, courage, work-rate, power and nice marking hands. He's the right pick, right time for the Tigers. They will be delighted to get O'Sullivan, a nimble inside/out midfielder who is good overhead and will add a point of difference to their midfield and is a nice counterbalance to Lalor's traits. His APS tape in 2024 is better than his Coates League and National Champs stuff. Murphy Reid has the best inside footwork, the best 360-degree handballing range and the best short-to-intermediate kicking range in the class. There is a bit of Travis Johnstone about the way he plays and he will likely make clubs who pass him up cry down the road. I rate him extremely highly. Armstrong is one of the better forwards in the draft and is a nice rebuilding cornerstone. He's a competitor with a booming kick on him and with Hynes and Dattoli, long term, in their different ways, will help replace the X-factor lost in the trade period. Hynes is a 190cm forward/wingman who almost has a Jake Stringer type impact on games. Dattoli is a small forward, with clever hands who can pinch hit through the midfield. Harrison Oliver is a Liam Duggan-type small defender who runs in straight lines and uses the ball well. Noah Mraz is a hulking 198cm defender who is a prodigious talent but had his season cruelled by injury. There aren't many players of his size/type who are relevant at ground level like he is. McKenzie is a dangerous third tall forward, who is particularly dangerous on the lead. Isiah Winder has returned to the WAFL after an ill-fated AFL stint at the Eagles and is interesting Richmond as a possible wing/half forward option to replace some of what has been lost after the trading of Liam Baker and Shai Bolton. There is much conjecture about the Tigers trading some picks into to the future to balance out their rebuild. Victorian talls Archie Ludowyke and Riley Onley have already put their hands up as potential target options in 2025.

St Kilda -

8. Jobe Shanahan 18, 194cm - key forward - Bendigo Pioneers
9. Tobie Travaglia 18, 187cm - half-back/wing - Bendigo Pioneers
33. Luke Urquhart 18, 183cm - midfielder - East Fremantle
42. Clancy Dennis 18, 194cm - key defender - Claremont
44. Adrian Cole 18, 197cm - defender - Sandringham Dragons
73. Lachlan Blakiston 26, 204cm - ruckman - East Fremantle

The Saints need a key forward and the best of them in the pool in my opinion and also the best fit here is Jobe Shanahan. If he was a touch quicker, I think he goes top three, but all the same I think he's a very, very good player. Travaglia could easily surprise and go even higher than this He's a very, very good tallish half-back flanker but has also shown himself to be a quality wingman and makeshift forward. The blend of running capacity, marking ability and leadership points to him being a 200-plus game player. Ross Lyon will love him. Luke Urquhart is a big-bodied clearance beast from the West whose stock in my estimation has risen following an excellent combine - an Andrew Swallow type. Another West Australian, Clancy Dennis is a cagey centre-half-back with a knack for being in the right place at the right time and forms with NGA acquisition Adrian Cole the nucleus of St Kilda's backline long-term. Cole is a 197cm full back who is close checking but needs to improve his ball-in-hand game. 26yo 205cm ruckman Blakiston has been earmarked as Rowan Marshall's deputy, leaving third tall back Lennox Hoffman, Justin Peckett's son Elwood and possible close checking back pocket Sam Linder to fall through to the rookie system under this scenario.

Sydney -

23. Jack Whitlock - 18, 200cm - key forward - Murray Bushrangers
26. Matt Whitlock 18, 197cm - key back/forward - Murray Bushrangers
39. Oliver Hannaford 18, 180cm - small forward - GWV Rebels
46. Joel Cochran 18, 195cm - key defender - Sydney Swans Academy
83. Oliver Warburton 18, 185cm - defender/wing - Murray Bushrangers

The Swans unite the Whitlock twins over the span of four picks giving them their key position bookends for the future. Both are steepling raw 200cm or so project players but both are terrific mounds of clay to work with and each could go higher. Jack will almost certainly play as a deep key forward with the ability to pinch hit in the ruck. Matt has spent a lot of time down back where his long cephalopodous arms make him an effective spoiler. He is adept as a forward but it is likely the Swans recruiting network dream of one at each end of the field when gazing into the future. Hannaford is a small forward with an appetite for the contest who can also play in other areas of the ground and put his name in lights with some starring displays at the backend of the GWV Rebels' excellent Coates League season. NGA Academy defender Joel Cochran could pair down the track with Matt Whitlock to give Sydney a defensive reboot. Cochran likes to dash out of defense with his athletic 195cm frame, but is also a promising contest defender for the future. Swans fan Oliver Warburton is a rebounding medium-sized defender with a well-rounded game and a sound decision maker.

West Coast -

15. Luke Trainor 18, 195cm - key defender - Sandringham Dragons
30. Jonty Faull 18, 195cm - key forward - GWV Rebels
60. Cody Angove 18, 182cm - wing/forward - Claremont
71. Riley Bice 24, 185cm - rebound defender - Werribee
75. Malaki Champion 18, 176cm - small forward - Subiaco
88. Tom Bell 18, 195cm - key defender - South Fremantle

The Eagles need to shore up their key defensive stocks and they use two picks here to that end. Trainor is a classy, intercept marking key back who can also go forward. Faull is a bullocking key forward and the long-term Jack Darling replacement. Both the top picks could be in Andrew McQualter's first side. West Australian Cody Angove is a hard-running, evasive wingman/forward who loves a goal. Tom Bell was one of the stars of the 2024 WAFL colts competition and will act as a development key back for West Coast, an obvious area of need. Riley Bice has had a terrific season for Werribee and the West Australian tundra will suit his ball carrying style and piercing kicking. The Eagles will love his ability to drill targets from the back 50 if his VFL form can translate to the higher level. With their second last pick, they match a bid for the pint-sized indigenous crumbing forward Malakai Champion, who will be a fan favourite if he makes the grade as a Charlie Cameron type.

Western Bulldogs -

20. Angus Clarke 18, 188cm - defender - Glenelg
29. Hamish Davis 18, 190cm - midfielder/forward - Claremont
35. James Barrat 17, 193cm - key defender - Bendigo Pioneers
43. Rhys Unwin 18, 178cm - midfielder/small forward - GWV Rebels
78. Patrick Retschko 18, 188cm - midfielder - Oakleigh Chargers

As the draft draws closer, Angus Clarke will be a riser. A third tall defender, he loves to run and carry and has a penetrative kick and terrific character traits. He can also play forward, but his recruitment will likely continue to free up fellow redhead Ed Richards long term. Hamish Davis late season work at WAFL senior and colts level proved he was a big game performer and the Doggies knife in early to take him - an attacking wingman/half-forward - from the West. James Barratt fills a need as an extra tall defender who's got a very well-rounded game. That well-roundedness involves the ability to go forward as a marking option. Unfortunately, a skill unlikely to ever need to be utilised by Luke Beveridge. I like Unwin as a versatile small who can play in any quadrant of the ground without fuss. Retschko is a strong bodied midfielder with an enormous tank but a worrisome injury record. Like many, he could be drafted much higher or not all.

Closing Thoughts -

I'm very keen on Polkinghorne and some of the other South Australians, like Clarke, Delmenico and McKay, are criminally under-rated by the various. I think basically much of what is out there is group think.

It's an incredible draft to decipher, I can make a case for 12 out of the top 18 picks as the number one pick with players like Shanahan, Reid and Travaglia very highly rated personally and Hotton would have been a top 5 pick and top overall pick candidate if uninjured and staying on his early season trajectory.

There are players in the 50-80 range who could easily go top 35 and there should be more picks than originally forecast.

Lindsay, Gross and Faull are the three most over-rated players in the draft for me but still AFL prospects. Anyone promoting Lindsay as a top 10 pick or similar, I basically check off. He went to ground too much in the Champs - clubs won't like that.

Richmond have two category B ruckmen and Samson Ryan, couldn't see them taking Dodson, hence why he fell. Hard for clubs to choose to draft an investment that will take 2-3 years with so much instant gratification out there. He's probably a top 20-25 talent.

From a Demons point of view (my club) - any two of Lalor, Draper, Langford, Smith, O'Sullivan, Travaglia, Shanahan, Allan, Reid or Hotton I would be happy with.

I would probably order them - in a blanket finish -

TIER A - Lalor, Ashcroft, Reid, Shanahan, Draper, Langford, Smith, Travaglia, O'Sullivan

TIER B - Allan, Tauru, Hotton, Smillie, Lombard

Players like Armstrong, J.Whitlock, Trainor aren't far away but I don't consider them as options for Melbourne with either of the two picks.

Most under-rated well-known players : Jobe Shanahan, Angus Clarke
Most over-rated players: Xavier Lindsay, Tom Gross
Best Smokeys: Jay Polkinghorne, Ben Kennedy
Most unlucky to miss out: Connor Evans, Damon Hollow, Jacob Newton

 

Edited November 14 by Yze_13

[Supreme_Demon 3,815]

Interesting analysis.

However, I would much rather the Demons take the most talented Victorian at pick #9 over Bo Allan from WA.

Josh Smillie, Murphy Reid or Xavier Lindsay are much better kicks than Bo Allan too.

I am sick of the Demons having players that blindly kick the ball like a mule into the forward line. It drives me bananas! 😵🍌🍌🍌🍌

I want players that can accurately pin point passes with the ball and hit our forwards on the chest lace out!

[Nascent 9,209]

He used to post here @Yze_13. He's a very astute watcher of junior footy.

[BW511 2,667]

Very committed, that’s an enormous amount of time!

[Tolstoys Nudge 1,658]

On 08/11/2024 at 15:35, DeeSpencer said:

Whose mail? Seems conflicting to the report just above 

Numerous — and Nope it doesn’t - just has Langford slightly ahead but I can’t see that and maybe am Hoping it’s still Smith but does seem to be much more a guessing game than usual which makes sense given tightness of draft. Still think Crows take Draper and Blues FOS Langford massively lees exciting for me than Jagga not even close in my book I’d prefer Smilie to Langford by a street too

[Tolstoys Nudge 1,658]

1 hour ago, Yze_13 said:

Saw this on Bigfooty - some excellent analysis

This year extremely tough with such a deep even pool. There will be quite a few trades and Richmond's haul like never before makes things certainly very interesting. I think more picks will be taken than thought. A lot of clubs have freed list spots and have more flexibility than seems to have been noticed - 5th and 6th and perhaps even a 7th rounder could come into play. Either way it's a fatter mock draft than the likely reality, but with more concepts and more players under consideration, it's a bit more interesting.
 

1. Richmond - Sam Lalor (GWV Rebels)
2. Brisbane - Levi Ashcroft (Sandringham Dragons)
3. North Melbourne - Alix Tauru (Gippsland Power)
4. Carlton - Sid Draper (South Adelaide)
5. Adelaide - Harvey Langford (Dandendong Stingrays)
6. Melbourne - Jagga Smith (Oakleigh Chargers)
7. Richmond - Finn O'Sullivan (Oakleigh Chargers)
8. Essendon - Isaac Kako (Calder Cannons)
9. St Kilda - Jobe Shanahan (Bendigo Pioneers)
10. St Kilda - Tobie Travaglia (Gippsland Power)
11. Melbourne - Bo Allan (Peel Thunder)
12. Gold Coast - Leo Lombard (Suns Academy)
13. Richmond - Murphy Reid (Sandringham Dragons)
14. Richmond - Harry Armstrong (Sandringham Dragons)
15. West Coast - Luke Trainor (Sandringham Dragons)
16. Port Adelaide - Josh Smillie (Eastern Ranges)
17. Fremantle - Joe Berry (Murray Bushrangers)
18. GWS - Taj Hotton (Sandringham Dragons)
19. GWS - Xavier Lindsay (Gippsland Power)
20. Western Bulldogs - Angus Clarke (Glenelg)
21. Richmond - Harrison Oliver (Sandringham Dragons)
22. Brisbane - Sam Marshall (Sandringham Dragons)
23. Sydney - Jack Whitlock (Murray Bushrangers)
24. Richmond - Cooper Hynes (Dandenong Stingrays)
25. GWS - Tate Delmenico (Woodville/West Torrens)
26. Sydney - Matt Whitlock (Murray Bushrangers)
27. Richmond - Jesse Dattoli (Northern Knights)
28. Richmond - Noah Mraz (Dandenong Stingrays)
29. Western Bulldogs - Hamish Davis (Claremont)
30. West Coast - Jonty Faull (GWV Rebels)
31. Port Adelaide - Kayle Gerreyn (West Perth)
32. Fremantle - Tom Sims (Northern Knights)
33. St Kilda - Luke Urquhart (East Fremantle)
34. Hawthorn - Alex Dodson (Sturt)
35. Western Bulldogs - James Barrat (Bendigo Pioneers)
36. Port Adelaide - Christian Moraes (Eastern Rangers)
37. GWS - Jasper Alger (Oakleigh Chargers)
38. GWS - Logan Smith (Giants Academy)
39. Sydney - Oliver Hannaford (GWV Rebels)
40. Carlton - Ben Camporeale (Glenelg)
41. Geelong - Lachlan Jaques (Geelong Falcons)
42. St Kilda - Clancy Dennis (Claremont)
43. Western Bulldogs - Rhys Unwin (GWV Rebels)
44. St Kilda - Adrian Cole (Sandringham Dragons)
45. Port Adelaide - Charlie Nicholls (Central Districts)
46. Sydney - Joel Cochran (Swans Academy)
47. Collingwood - Harry O'Farrell (Calder Cannons)
48. Essendon - Floyd Burmeister (GWV Rebels)
49. Essendon - Ned Bowman (Norwood)
50. Collingwood - Josh Dolan (Sandringham Dragons)
51. Geelong - Sam Davidson (Richmond VFL)
52. Collingwood - Jack Ough (GWV Rebels)
53. Adelaide - Tyler Welsh (Woodville/West Torrens)
54. North Melbourne - Josh Murphy (Murray Bushrangers)
55. Essendon - Hugh Boxshall (Claremont)
56. Collingwood - Doug Kerr (Oakleigh Chargers)
57. Fremantle - Jaxon Artemis (South Fremantle)
58. GWS - Cooper Bell (Giants Academy)
59. Carlton - Will Hayes (Claremont)
60. Carlton - Charles West (Woodville West Torrens)
61. Brisbane - Ty Gallop (Maroochydore)
62. Gold Coast - Thomas McKay (Glenelg)
63. Hawthorn - Tom Gross (Oakleigh Chargers)
64. Carlton - Lucas Camporeale (Glenelg)
65. Gold Coast - Aiden Riddle (Claremont)
66. West Coast - Cody Angove (Claremont)
67. Geelong - Gabriel Stumpf (Northern Knights)
68. Hawthorn - Archer Day-Wicks (Bendigo Pioneers)
69. Richmond - Bailey McKenzie (Sandringham Dragons)
70. North Melbourne - Ben Kennedy (Murray Bushrangers)
71. West Coast - Riley Bice (Werribee VFL)
72. Adelaide - Jacob Molier (Sturt)
73. Melbourne - Jay Polkinghorne (Norwood)
74. St Kilda - Lachlan Blakiston (East Fremantle)
75. West Coast - Malakai Champion (Subiaco)
76. Essendon - Mitchell Kirkwood-Scott (Sandringham Dragons)
77. Fremantle - Charlie Burke (Subiaco)
78. Essendon - Jayden Nguyen (Calder Cannons)
79. Western Bulldogs - Patrick Retscko (Oakleigh Chargers)
80. GWS - Sam Toner (Narre Warren)
81. Geelong - Xavier Ivisic (Geelong Falcons)
82. Port Adelaide - Harry Charleson (GWV Rebels)
83. Sydney - Oliver Warburton (Murray Bushrangers)
84. Richmond - Isiah Winder (South Fremantle)
85. North Melbourne - Max Rohr (Fremantle)
86. Melbourne - Boyd Woodcock (Southport VFL)
87. Essendon - Will Hoare (Essendon VFL)
88. West Coast - Tom Bell (South Fremantle)
89. Brisbane - Keighton Matofai-Forbes (Westen Jets)

Adelaide -

5. Harvey Langford 18, 190cm - midfielder/forward - Dandenong Stingrays
53. Tyler Welsh 18, 191cm - forward - Woodville/West Torrens
72. Jacob Molier 18, 201cm - ruck - Sturt

It's a possibility Carlton vaulted ahead of the Crows so that it had access to the best South Australian in the pool, midfielder Sid Draper, and in that scenario, Adelaide would probably be left to choose between Harvey Langford and Jagga Smith. In this scenario, the size and physically of Langford wins out, with his thumping left foot and ability to play as a marking forward winning out. Father/Son Tyler Welsh also helps in that regard. With a powerhouse build, the son of former Kangaroo and Crow leading forward Scott, is a ready-to-go third tall forward with some X-factor. If the Crows take a third selection (they cleared some list space pre-draft), the extremely athletic Molier could be an option as a developmental ruckman.

Brisbane -

2. Levi Ashcroft 17, 179cm - midfielder - Sandringham Dragons
22. Sam Marshall 18, 185cm - midfielder - Sandringham Dragons
61. Ty Gallop 18, 194cm - key forward - Maroochydore
87. Keighton Matofai-Forbes 18, 188cm - forward - Western Jets

Levi Ashcroft and Sam Marshall are matched at their likely spots, giving the Lions a tremendous leg up on the competition before new bidding rules take place. Levi I have rated as a slightly lesser prospect than brother Will but he is a ready-to-go future top line midfielder. Marshall is a hard-working midfielder who may take time to break through such will be the density of Brisbane's midfield, but he is a player. Brisbane may have to absorb a bid at some point for bullocking 194cm key forward Ty Gallop who has something about him and covers the ground well for a player of his robust physique. Keighton Matofai-Forbes is raw but there is some Cam Rayner about his game which may entice the Lions to expend with a list sport if they don't receive any more NGA bids - ruckman Tom Gillett being a possibility along with defender Fergus McFadyen.

Carlton -

4. Sid Draper 18, 182cm - midfielder - South Adelaide
40. Ben Camporeale 18, 185cm - midfielder - Glenelg
59. Will Hayes 18, 178cm - small forward - Clarememont
60. Charles West 18, 195cm - key forward - Woodville/West Torrens
64. Lucas Camporeale 18, 186cm - wingman - Glenelg

The Blues trade up and get a premium talent in Draper - a ready-made breakaway midfielder who brings different ingredients to the table than Carlton's incumbent centre square stars. The Camporeales join as father-sons, Ben's inside game will work well the Blues current midfield mix, while Lucas brings a more outside game to the table. South Australian West is a big, strong-bodied key position player/emergency ruckman who will bring a point of difference to Carlton's spine with his bullocking style and thick physique. Small West Aussie Hayes will add some speed and agility around the packs and some goalkicking bite, something the Blues will covet at some point having lost Matt Owies and Jack Martin in the off-season.

Collingwood -

47. Harry O'Farrell 18, 196cm - key back - Calder Cannons
50. Josh Dolan 18, 178cm - small forward/midfielder - Sandringham Dragons
52. Jack Ough 17, 194cm - wing/midfielder - GWV Rebels
56. Doug Kerr 18, 192cm - medium defender - Oakleigh Chargers

The Pies look to the loing-term future and select O'Farrell as their primary key defensive prospect, before drafting Jordan De Goey mini-me Dolan, a blond-locked 178cm midfielder/half forward, in this scenario. Ough is a tall 194cm midfielder/wingman who has a good feel for the game with neat disposal. The game slows up for him a bit when he has ball in hand. Had Kerr not torn an ACL this year, he'd be ready to go in 2025. The St Kevins captain is a strongly built utility, primarily a midfielder/forward now but once played a promising game on Logan Morris as a 15 year old at Coates League level quite a few years ago. Kerr tested well in early screening and I'm sure the Pies match to retain him or as in this scenario protect him by selecting him with their final pick recently acquired in a pick trade with Brisbane.

Essendon -

8. Isaac Kako 18, 175cm - small forward - Calder Cannons
48. Floyd Burmeister 18, 198cm - ruck/forward - GWV Rebels
49. Ned Bowman 18, 186cm - wing/forward - Norwood
55. Hugh Boxshall 18, 187cm - midfielder - Claremont
76. Mitchell Kirkwood-Scott 18, 181cm - small defender - Sandringham Dragons
78. Jayden Nguyen 18, 177cm - small forward - Calder Cannons
87. Will Hoare 24, 198cm - key defender - Essendon VFL

Bomber fans will love their NGA additions, Kako and Nguyen. Kako is an incredibly tricky small forward and an elite talent. Nguyen is a lesser ranked player but an exciting, diminutive player who who can play in a range in a positions with an abundance of speed and nimbleness. In Burmeister, Essendon has added an incredibly athletic long-term ruck/resting forward prospect. Bowman gives Essendon some X-factor as a quick, high-leaping medium marking forward or wingman. Hugh Boxshall become a spruik player leading into the draft after some terrific combine results added to some good tape coming out of the West. He is the type of inside bull the Bombers will covet. Kirkwood-Scott is a line-breaking transition defender with pace and a penetrating kick. Hoare has impressed for Essendon's VFL program as a tall key back will good interception skills. I fully suspect Essendon to trade back into the draft at some point, looking for a key forward, with Jobe Shanahan being one of their primary targets if he is somehow attainable.

Fremantle -

17. Joe Berry 18, 180cm - small forward - Gippsland Power
32. Tom Sims 18, 199cm - key forward - Northern Knights
57. Jaxon Artemis 18, 180cm - half back/wing - South Fremantle
77. Charlie Burke 18, 183cm - wing - Subiaco

The rumours flow that Freo are interested are interested in Berry and I think one of the reasons for that is that they see some Caleb Serong in his play. Berry is quite similar to a bottom age Serong and if the Dockers project a similar outcome then they would be out of their mind not to go in this direction and try a re-print of their star rover. Comparisons aside, Berry is a very sold high half forward prospect at this stage with upside to play higher up the ground in time. Sims is a close-to-200cm key forward who launches at the ball and reaches it at its highest point. He may take a bit of time to be AFL ready but he is an exciting talent who will be hard to defend and a likely steal at pick 32. Artemis would be a steal at 57, he is a neat kicking half-back/wing type who plays with composure. The Dockers round out their draft with another local West Australian prospect in Charlie Burke, a wing/utility with a well-rounded game.

Geelong -

41. Lachlan Jaques 18, 184cm - defender - Geelong Falcons
51. Sam Davidson 22, 191cm - forward - Richmond (VFL)
67. Gabriel Stumpf 18, 194cm - key forward - Northern Knights
81. Xavier Ivisic 18, 180cm - midfielder - Geelong Falcons

The Cats bookend their draft with two local products. Lachlan Jaques is a medium-sized intercept marking defender who has the potential to be an excellent third or fourth tall defender in the Nick Haynes-mould if he can wash away his penchant for the odd goal-conceding moment of madness. He does do plenty of good things though and has controlled junior games from the back half this year. Ivisic is a hard-working local midfielder. He is on the small side and that threatens his draft standing. I think the Cats could use a ready-made forward option and Richmond's VFL star Davidson fits that bill as a would-be complement to Shannon Neal and Jeremy Cameron. Stumpf is a tall, lean key forward who shone at the combine but is a project player. The Cats could also look to local Daniel Lowther as another key forward option in the Rookie Draft. It's an area they are thin on for depth.

Gold Coast -

12. Leo Lombard 18, 178cm - midfielder - Gold Coast Suns Academy
62. Tom McKay 18, 191cm - tall swingman - Glenelg
68. Aiden Riddle 19, 199cm - ruckman - Claremont

Lombard is one the most pedigreed juniors for a long time and has seemingly been playing under 18 championships football for a decade. He's a good player, a tough and skilful small midfielder who should play straightway. McKay will take some time as he's very skinny but he's a talented 190cm-plus swingman, able to play as a matchup defender but also showing some forward craft at junior level in SA. He's not getting much buzz but is a highly promising player. Riddle is one of the better ruckmen in the pool and has used his 19th year on Earth adding the ability to play forward to his game, but also improving his hands in close and his kicking touch. It's possible a bid may come for rangy utility Caleb Nancarrow but he's more likely a category B option at best. Not so classy half-back/midfielder Zeke Uwland, a likely top 5 pick in the 2025 draft, one of three of four exciting NGA prospects the Suns have on the way in 12 months' time.

GWS -

18. Taj Hotton 18, 182cm - midfielder/forward - Sandringham Dragons
19. Xavier Lindsay 18, 183cm - wing/half back - Gippsland Power
25. Tate Delmenico 17, 190cm - defender - Woodville/West Torrens
37. Jasper Alger 17, 182cm - small forward - Oakleigh Chargers
38. Logan Smith 18, 204cm - ruckman - GWS Academy
57. Cooper Bell 17, 198cm - full back - GWS Academy
80. Sam Toner 19, 186cm - forward - Narre Warren

It's been an eventful off-season for the Giants, losing some key ingredients and they look to offset that with a big draft here. Taj Hotton could have gone in the top 3 if he hadn't done an ACL and could well go much higher than this. He is a supremely talented mid/wing/half-forward that will obviously take time now but will be a terrific pick for the patient club that gets him with a bit of luck. Lindsay gives them a ball-user on the outside to help offset their off-season departures. He's highly-rated by many but I worry about his physicality and that he won't be freely given the space he's been blessed with at junior level. I'm clearly a big fan of Delmenico, a 190cm third tall defender with a lovely pair of hands who reads the game well. He's one of the youngest players in the pool and one of a few South Australians I rank much higher than consensus. Check Melbourne's summary for the main one. Jasper Alger is an agile small-to-medium forward who is good at ground level but also a clever aerialist for his size. He likes to play close to goal and will have a great mentor in Toby Greene. GWS' Academy selections are good building blocks for the future - Smith being a long-term ruck prospect with a tremendous frame for the position and Bell a rude-haired, key defensive pillar who is a hard to beat one on one. Sam Toner has become the nominal smokey of the draft having spent most of the year playing suburban football. He's a do-it-all forward, dangerous in the air but also in transition and a good finisher. Another late pick contender for the Giants is Connor Evans who could appeal to clubs late in the draft as rebounding medium defender and the Giants might look at this type of player to offset the loss of Isaac Cumming and Harry Perryman in particular, although Delmenico will help in this regard. Rover Josiah Delana is a likely Category B rookie.

Hawthorn

34. Alex Dodson 18, 203cm - ruckman - Sturt
63. Tom Gross 18, 181cm - midfielder - Oakleigh Chargers
67. Archer Day-Wicks 18, 186cm - forward - Bendigo Pioneers

Having heavily invested in its defence already, the Hawks use the draft to address other areas. Dodson falls them here at 34, giving the Hawks their ruckman of the future. With a basketball pedigree, he has the tools to one day be a premier AFL ruckman. Gross is small midfielder and defensive forward who lacks size but brings a high pressure rating and workrate. Day-Wicks is a medium forward who has an excellent aerial game and plays a lot taller than his described height. Nuggety midfielder Cody Anderson will be a likely Category B option for Hawthorn under this scenario.

Melbourne -

6. Jagga Smith 18, 181cm - midfielder - Oakleigh Chargers
11. Bo Allan 18, 190cm - midfielder/half-back - Peel Thunder
73. Jay Polkinghorne 18, 192cm - key forward - Norwood
86. Boyd Woodcock 24, 179cm - rover/small forward - Southport (VFL)

It's probably a case of sit back and see what falls for the Dees with their first pick and in this scenario, with Harvey Langford off the table, I have them taking Jagga Smith, who is probably one of the more solid picks in the draft and a nice counterpointing fit for Melbourne's existing midfield and their likely next pick. Allan is a tremendous athlete with the protypical modern AFL body who plays at a manic pace and embraces collision. There is some Beau Waters characteristics (Waters being the most courageous player I've seen come through the system with the highest rated intangibles) and leadership appeal with this West Australian. He'll be ready to go as a half-back before becoming a big-bodied mid and with some added polish, should be a very good player. Interestingly, with Allan, the Dees will now have a war-chest of WA talent to potentially throw at the Eagles if Harley Reid ever wanted to return to Victoria. Jay Polkinghorne is my fantasy pick for the Dees. Believe it or not I have him rated in my top 25. He's a key forward with very good marking ability and a solid set shot for goal. Injury robbed him of most of his season but he came home strong featuring in Norwood's SANFL reserves premiership before being BOG in Adelaide's private school grand final. He hails from a country town five hours from South Australia's capital so let's hope Jason Taylor wants to bring in another country SA kid to add to Harry Petty and Kade Chandler. In my opinion, it's a mistake we haven't held a midrange pick to collect at some point in the 40s to try to guarantee his acquisition. 24 year old Former Power rover/small forward Boyd Woodcock has developed into one of - if not - the best players in the NEAFL, with some added strings to his bow, and deserves another chance at AFL level. The Dees could use some crumbing depth and nip around the packs. Rebounding third tall defenders Ben Kennedy and Connor Evans were in consideration also for this pick. I couldn't manipulate Kennedy to last long enough - another one of my favourite prospects that no-one talks about.

North Melbourne -

3. Alix Tauru - 17, 193cm - key defender - Gippsland Power
54. Josh Murphy 17, 190cm - forward - Murray Bushrangers
70. Ben Kennedy 18, 186cm - defender - Murray Bushrangers
85. Max Rohr 19, 197cm - key forward - Claremont

The Kangaroos are in a pincer movement whereby their pick doesn't suit the flow of their list, even more so after their trade period. In a mock without trades, I have to have them taking Tauru here, even though I think holding and picking up a midfielder might make more sense and then trading their future first to get a Tauru, Trainor, Armstrong or Shanahan. In this setup they get the 'Flying Viking' Tauru, a pack-marking defender with a lot of upside. The pick just doesn't marry the talent rating in this draft in my opinion, which is why North has a dilemma on its hands and needs trade bedfellows. Murphy is one of the youngest players in the pool and a third tall forward with a diverse skillset. Rohr is a 197cm ruckman from WA, who looked promising as a key forward at the National Championships, something he hadn't shown much of before, and the Roos will likely see him a as forward/ruck hybrid for the future. Ben Kennedy is a third to fourth tall defender who intercepts well but can also carry the footy with a burst of pace. His season output doesn't equate to the quality of the player - no shock if his name called out at some point.

Port Adelaide -

16. Josh Smillie 18, 194cm - midfielder/utility - Eastern Ranges
31. Kayle Gerreyn 18, 199cm - ruck/forward - West Perth
36. Christian Moraes 18, 182cm - wingman - Eastern Ranges
45. Charlie Nicholls 18, 197cm - tall forward - Central Districts
82. Harry Charleson 18, 182cm - small defender - GWV Rebels

Smillie would is a great slider pick here for the Power and certainly a contrast for their midfield. He could easily go at Pick 3 without surprising, but as a I worked my way through and you have player v player discussions, other options seemed to win out. He's got a bit of David Mundy about him and if he can nuance his way around AFL players like he does juniors he will likely end up the best player from the pool. Gerreyn is a big backsided forward/ruck who has had a very productive season and could likely play straightaway for the Power as its back up ruckman/third tall forward. He will add an extra dimension to Port's big man stocks and help cover for the loss of Charlie Dixon. Moraes is a hard-running wingman and the long-term replacement for Travis Boak. He could easily go much higher. As could small defender Harry Charleson, who links up with his brother Lachlan at Alberton and has shown an ability to stand up in pressure cooker situations through his top age year. Charlie Nicholls is a South Australian 197cm key position prospect who can play at both ends, either as a matchup key defender or a rangy, ground covering key forward - he has the raw tools to be a good long term prospect.

Richmond -

1.Sam Lalor 18, 187cm - midfielder/forward - GWV Rebels
7. Finn O'Sullivan 18, 182cm - midfielder - Oakleigh Charges
13. Murphy Reid 18, 181cm - midfielder - Sandringham Dragons
14. Harry Armstrong 18, 193cm - key forward - Sandringham Dragons
21. Harrison Oliver 18, 181cm - small defender - Sandringham Dragons
24. Cooper Hynes 18, 190cm - wing/forward - Dandenong Stingrays
27. Jesse Dattoli 18, 178cm - small forward - Northern Knights
28. Noah Mraz 18, 198cm - key defender - Dandenong Stingrays
69. Bailey McKenzie 18, 191cm - forward - Sandringham Dragons
84. Isiah Winder 22, 180cm - wingman - South Fremantle

Incredible draft haul. Lalor looks and plays like Dusty, but is not as good a player coming out. That said he has all the tools to be a fine AFL player - neat disposal, courage, work-rate, power and nice marking hands. He's the right pick, right time for the Tigers. They will be delighted to get O'Sullivan, a nimble inside/out midfielder who is good overhead and will add a point of difference to their midfield and is a nice counterbalance to Lalor's traits. His APS tape in 2024 is better than his Coates League and National Champs stuff. Murphy Reid has the best inside footwork, the best 360-degree handballing range and the best short-to-intermediate kicking range in the class. There is a bit of Travis Johnstone about the way he plays and he will likely make clubs who pass him up cry down the road. I rate him extremely highly. Armstrong is one of the better forwards in the draft and is a nice rebuilding cornerstone. He's a competitor with a booming kick on him and with Hynes and Dattoli, long term, in their different ways, will help replace the X-factor lost in the trade period. Hynes is a 190cm forward/wingman who almost has a Jake Stringer type impact on games. Dattoli is a small forward, with clever hands who can pinch hit through the midfield. Harrison Oliver is a Liam Duggan-type small defender who runs in straight lines and uses the ball well. Noah Mraz is a hulking 198cm defender who is a prodigious talent but had his season cruelled by injury. There aren't many players of his size/type who are relevant at ground level like he is. McKenzie is a dangerous third tall forward, who is particularly dangerous on the lead. Isiah Winder has returned to the WAFL after an ill-fated AFL stint at the Eagles and is interesting Richmond as a possible wing/half forward option to replace some of what has been lost after the trading of Liam Baker and Shai Bolton. There is much conjecture about the Tigers trading some picks into to the future to balance out their rebuild. Victorian talls Archie Ludowyke and Riley Onley have already put their hands up as potential target options in 2025.

St Kilda -

8. Jobe Shanahan 18, 194cm - key forward - Bendigo Pioneers
9. Tobie Travaglia 18, 187cm - half-back/wing - Bendigo Pioneers
33. Luke Urquhart 18, 183cm - midfielder - East Fremantle
42. Clancy Dennis 18, 194cm - key defender - Claremont
44. Adrian Cole 18, 197cm - defender - Sandringham Dragons
73. Lachlan Blakiston 26, 204cm - ruckman - East Fremantle

The Saints need a key forward and the best of them in the pool in my opinion and also the best fit here is Jobe Shanahan. If he was a touch quicker, I think he goes top three, but all the same I think he's a very, very good player. Travaglia could easily surprise and go even higher than this He's a very, very good tallish half-back flanker but has also shown himself to be a quality wingman and makeshift forward. The blend of running capacity, marking ability and leadership points to him being a 200-plus game player. Ross Lyon will love him. Luke Urquhart is a big-bodied clearance beast from the West whose stock in my estimation has risen following an excellent combine - an Andrew Swallow type. Another West Australian, Clancy Dennis is a cagey centre-half-back with a knack for being in the right place at the right time and forms with NGA acquisition Adrian Cole the nucleus of St Kilda's backline long-term. Cole is a 197cm full back who is close checking but needs to improve his ball-in-hand game. 26yo 205cm ruckman Blakiston has been earmarked as Rowan Marshall's deputy, leaving third tall back Lennox Hoffman, Justin Peckett's son Elwood and possible close checking back pocket Sam Linder to fall through to the rookie system under this scenario.

Sydney -

23. Jack Whitlock - 18, 200cm - key forward - Murray Bushrangers
26. Matt Whitlock 18, 197cm - key back/forward - Murray Bushrangers
39. Oliver Hannaford 18, 180cm - small forward - GWV Rebels
46. Joel Cochran 18, 195cm - key defender - Sydney Swans Academy
83. Oliver Warburton 18, 185cm - defender/wing - Murray Bushrangers

The Swans unite the Whitlock twins over the span of four picks giving them their key position bookends for the future. Both are steepling raw 200cm or so project players but both are terrific mounds of clay to work with and each could go higher. Jack will almost certainly play as a deep key forward with the ability to pinch hit in the ruck. Matt has spent a lot of time down back where his long cephalopodous arms make him an effective spoiler. He is adept as a forward but it is likely the Swans recruiting network dream of one at each end of the field when gazing into the future. Hannaford is a small forward with an appetite for the contest who can also play in other areas of the ground and put his name in lights with some starring displays at the backend of the GWV Rebels' excellent Coates League season. NGA Academy defender Joel Cochran could pair down the track with Matt Whitlock to give Sydney a defensive reboot. Cochran likes to dash out of defense with his athletic 195cm frame, but is also a promising contest defender for the future. Swans fan Oliver Warburton is a rebounding medium-sized defender with a well-rounded game and a sound decision maker.

West Coast -

15. Luke Trainor 18, 195cm - key defender - Sandringham Dragons
30. Jonty Faull 18, 195cm - key forward - GWV Rebels
60. Cody Angove 18, 182cm - wing/forward - Claremont
71. Riley Bice 24, 185cm - rebound defender - Werribee
75. Malaki Champion 18, 176cm - small forward - Subiaco
88. Tom Bell 18, 195cm - key defender - South Fremantle

The Eagles need to shore up their key defensive stocks and they use two picks here to that end. Trainor is a classy, intercept marking key back who can also go forward. Faull is a bullocking key forward and the long-term Jack Darling replacement. Both the top picks could be in Andrew McQualter's first side. West Australian Cody Angove is a hard-running, evasive wingman/forward who loves a goal. Tom Bell was one of the stars of the 2024 WAFL colts competition and will act as a development key back for West Coast, an obvious area of need. Riley Bice has had a terrific season for Werribee and the West Australian tundra will suit his ball carrying style and piercing kicking. The Eagles will love his ability to drill targets from the back 50 if his VFL form can translate to the higher level. With their second last pick, they match a bid for the pint-sized indigenous crumbing forward Malakai Champion, who will be a fan favourite if he makes the grade as a Charlie Cameron type.

Western Bulldogs -

20. Angus Clarke 18, 188cm - defender - Glenelg
29. Hamish Davis 18, 190cm - midfielder/forward - Claremont
35. James Barrat 17, 193cm - key defender - Bendigo Pioneers
43. Rhys Unwin 18, 178cm - midfielder/small forward - GWV Rebels
78. Patrick Retschko 18, 188cm - midfielder - Oakleigh Chargers

As the draft draws closer, Angus Clarke will be a riser. A third tall defender, he loves to run and carry and has a penetrative kick and terrific character traits. He can also play forward, but his recruitment will likely continue to free up fellow redhead Ed Richards long term. Hamish Davis late season work at WAFL senior and colts level proved he was a big game performer and the Doggies knife in early to take him - an attacking wingman/half-forward - from the West. James Barratt fills a need as an extra tall defender who's got a very well-rounded game. That well-roundedness involves the ability to go forward as a marking option. Unfortunately, a skill unlikely to ever need to be utilised by Luke Beveridge. I like Unwin as a versatile small who can play in any quadrant of the ground without fuss. Retschko is a strong bodied midfielder with an enormous tank but a worrisome injury record. Like many, he could be drafted much higher or not all.

Closing Thoughts -

I'm very keen on Polkinghorne and some of the other South Australians, like Clarke, Delmenico and McKay, are criminally under-rated by the various. I think basically much of what is out there is group think.

It's an incredible draft to decipher, I can make a case for 12 out of the top 18 picks as the number one pick with players like Shanahan, Reid and Travaglia very highly rated personally and Hotton would have been a top 5 pick and top overall pick candidate if uninjured and staying on his early season trajectory.

There are players in the 50-80 range who could easily go top 35 and there should be more picks than originally forecast.

Lindsay, Gross and Faull are the three most over-rated players in the draft for me but still AFL prospects. Anyone promoting Lindsay as a top 10 pick or similar, I basically check off. He went to ground too much in the Champs - clubs won't like that.

Richmond have two category B ruckmen and Samson Ryan, couldn't see them taking Dodson, hence why he fell. Hard for clubs to choose to draft an investment that will take 2-3 years with so much instant gratification out there. He's probably a top 20-25 talent.

From a Demons point of view (my club) - any two of Lalor, Draper, Langford, Smith, O'Sullivan, Travaglia, Shanahan, Allan, Reid or Hotton I would be happy with.

I would probably order them - in a blanket finish -

TIER A - Lalor, Ashcroft, Reid, Shanahan, Draper, Langford, Smith, Travaglia, O'Sullivan

TIER B - Allan, Tauru, Hotton, Smillie, Lombard

Players like Armstrong, J.Whitlock, Trainor aren't far away but I don't consider them as options for Melbourne with either of the two picks.

Most under-rated well-known players : Jobe Shanahan, Angus Clarke
Most over-rated players: Xavier Lindsay, Tom Gross
Best Smokeys: Jay Polkinghorne, Ben Kennedy
Most unlucky to miss out: Connor Evans, Damon Hollow, Jacob Newton

 

Were not taking Allan — just aren’t 

[Tolstoys Nudge 1,658]

1 hour ago, Roddog said:

The thought of getting Armstrong is very disheartening. What happened last time we took a key forward at pick 9?

Armstrong disheartening?

Crikey.. seen the kid play have you? Give me strength 

[picket fence 17,126]

2 hours ago, 12345_54321 said:

all between the ears for Weid. Stephen Silvagni has said multiple times he would’ve picked Weideman before Curnow and McKay. They fell into Carltons lap. 

Silvagni knows Jack Shheeeit

[12345_54321 1,110]

12 minutes ago, picket fence said:

Silvagni knows Jack Shheeeit

The point being Jason Taylor *the best in the business* wasn’t alone in rating Weid higher than Curnow and McKay. 

[12345_54321 1,110]

23 minutes ago, Tolstoys Nudge said:

Numerous — and Nope it doesn’t - just has Langford slightly ahead but I can’t see that and maybe am Hoping it’s still Smith but does seem to be much more a guessing game than usual which makes sense given tightness of draft. Still think Crows take Draper and Blues FOS Langford massively lees exciting for me than Jagga not even close in my book I’d prefer Smilie to Langford by a street too

Rating Smillie over Langford? Crazy take. 

[RalphiusMaximus 6,046]

12 hours ago, Neil Crompton said:

That statement is becoming about as boring as the statement about Pendlebury having a basketball background.

 

Wait.  Pendlebury played basketball?  🤯

[The Jackson FIX 3,099]

10 hours ago, Roddog said:

What happened last time we took a key forward at pick 9?

Using this logic, I’m just glad we had the courage to select Christian Petracca at #2 after the failure of the #2 Jack Trengove pick in the past 

[No10 461]

17 hours ago, FTB said:

Carlton into Draper in a big way so sounds like he will be a near certainty to be off the board when it comes to our first pick.

1. Lalor

2. Tauru

Carlton or Adelaide to pick Draper with the other to select one of FOS/Langford/Smith.

So sounds likely we will choose between the two that are still on the board out of FOS/Langford/Smith.

I can imagine a lot of bluffing.  Expecting Adelaide to trade above Carl for Draper. Nth might prefer moving to 6 but we’re pressing on Tauru at 5…

I guess it hinges on who we actually want… I think Langford fits us best. Think he’s the most exciting player in the draft.

FOS looks brilliant to me also, but some on here who’d know better don’t rate him so highly.

Smith is probably an extremely effective player, he’s just the type of player that I’m personally less excited to watch.

[Dee Boys 621]

From today’s Herald Sun:

Highly-rated Victorian midfielder Jagga Smith is looking increasingly certain to be a top-five draft pick next Wednesday, with Harvey Langford shaping as a potential slider to St Kilda’s first selection.

Smith is believed to have strong interest from Carlton (pick 3), Adelaide (pick 4) and Melbourne (pick 5) and is no longer expected to get past the Demons. 

Richmond is still favoured to select Sam Lalor at pick 1 but has also weighed up Finn O’Sullivan. 

With North Melbourne eyeing Alix Tauru at pick 2, Carlton looks set to have a choice between O’Sullivan, Sid Draper and Smith.

[dazzledavey36 54,741]

12 minutes ago, Dee Boys said:

From today’s Herald Sun:

 

Highly-rated Victorian midfielder Jagga Smith is looking increasingly certain to be a top-five draft pick next Wednesday, with Harvey Langford shaping as a potential slider to St Kilda’s first selection.

Smith is believed to have strong interest from Carlton (pick 3), Adelaide (pick 4) and Melbourne (pick 5) and is no longer expected to get past the Demons. 

Richmond is still favoured to select Sam Lalor at pick 1 but has also weighed up Finn O’Sullivan. 

With North Melbourne eyeing Alix Tauru at pick 2, Carlton looks set to have a choice between O’Sullivan, Sid Draper and Smith.

That to me sounds like that if we had to choose between Langford and Smith, we'd obviously select Smith?

[Lucifers Hero 39,687]

I'm not too clued in with the draftees but what I read that stood out for me (paraphrasing):

• Smith (smallish mid 182 cm) - excellent prospect, ready to go but doesn't have the ceiling of other top draftees.
• Langford (tall mid 191cm ) - excellent prospect, often compared to a Bontempelli/Cripps type.

While maybe not as talented we have other players of the Smith type:  Rivers, Windsor and plenty of depth:  Billings, Laurie Sparrow etc.

Langford gives us a different type in the midfield and would be a great paring (or replacement) for Petrecca and maybe Oliver should either leave.

So my preference would be Langford

[spirit of norm smith 16,418]

 

6 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

That to me sounds like that if we had to choose between Langford and Smith, we'd obviously select Smith?

It would be a very very tough decision to make.  It seems likely though it might come down to the Dees having to make the call.  Either Smith or Langford would be an excellent choice.  Both have many AFL qualities.  Smith is a definitely a classy player.  Smart. Skilled. Footy IQ. However I’m leaning towards Langford given he is more versatile and perhaps more seen as ready to go.  Physically can play midfield or (with his extra height and marking) he can drift forward or indeed play even across half back. 
I did like a statement made on an earlier post.  With 5 & 9 “from a Demons point of view (my club) - any two of Lalor, Draper, Langford, Smith, O'Sullivan, Travaglia, Shanahan, Allan, Reid or Hotton I would be happy with”.   It sums up the depth of talent and the many different pick options and choices for JT.  In JT we trust.  

[Colm 2,150]

17 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

That to me sounds like that if we had to choose between Langford and Smith, we'd obviously select Smith?

I’d prefer Langford but what would I know. 
Goody has always liked being a contested team first and although he has a slight frame Jagga does seem to win a lot of his own footy and is very efficient(maybe not super damaging)  with it when he gets it.

[Lil_red_fire_engine 11,150]

Assuming we have the choice of Smith or Langford I want Smith but would not be disappointed with Langford (in JT we Trust). When I watch Merritt, Butters, Neale I wish we had one of those types to complement our bulls. Clean, buzzy second possessions connectors who accumulate and make things happen. Jagga is not a carbon copy of any of them but he is in the mould. Anyone thinking he wont impact in 2025 should go and watch his impact in 3 VFL Richmond games without an AFL preseason or knowing his team mates. 

If Smith at 5 or even if Langford I am all in on Allan next up. He just has X factor attributes in his speed and size combo but also his hardness that I can see his immediate lock into a back flank whilst he develops for the inevitable midfield transition in a season or two. Whilst Jackson went home you just need to look at our depth of WA boys to know we dont draft talent with that concern and back ourselves in (3 year minimum contracts now also assist that settling period).

Fantasy maybe but if we take Jagga at 5 is there a strange world where if Smillie goes 6 and one of pick 7/8 becomes a tall where Langford could fall in our laps at 9? (A boy can dream I guess). 

[BW511 2,667]

5 minutes ago, Lil_red_fire_engine said:

Assuming we have the choice of Smith or Langford I want Smith but would not be disappointed with Langford (in JT we Trust). When I watch Merritt, Butters, Neale I wish we had one of those types to complement our bulls. Clean, buzzy second possessions connectors who accumulate and make things happen. Jagga is not a carbon copy of any of them but he is in the mould. Anyone thinking he wont impact in 2025 should go and watch his impact in 3 VFL Richmond games without an AFL preseason or knowing his team mates. 

If Smith at 5 or even if Langford I am all in on Allan next up. He just has X factor attributes in his speed and size combo but also his hardness that I can see his immediate lock into a back flank whilst he develops for the inevitable midfield transition in a season or two. Whilst Jackson went home you just need to look at our depth of WA boys to know we dont draft talent with that concern and back ourselves in (3 year minimum contracts now also assist that settling period).

Fantasy maybe but if we take Jagga at 5 is there a strange world where if Smillie goes 6 and one of pick 7/8 becomes a tall where Langford could fall in our laps at 9? (A boy can dream I guess). 

This would be a dream scenario for sure, Jagga and Langford!

Is there a world where Langford slides a little due to not having a set position?

Versatility could work against him in an AFL system where roles are assigned very specifically. There’s a number of bigger body/tall mids who have never really cemented themselves

[Roddog 89]

2 hours ago, The Jackson FIX said:

Using this logic, I’m just glad we had the courage to select Christian Petracca at #2 after the failure of the #2 Jack Trengove pick in the past 

May be so, I just detest the idea of spending a top 10 pick in a ‘super draft’ on a raw key forward when we’ve taken key forwards with our last pick in 2/3 drafts. I’m still bullish on Jeffo, and JVR has all the makings of an elite Key forward. What’s more, our 2021 flag was built on an outstanding midfield, not a ridiculous forward line. I’d prefer to address our aging midfield before the inevitable media swarm next offseason 

[Colm 2,150]

13 minutes ago, Roddog said:

May be so, I just detest the idea of spending a top 10 pick in a ‘super draft’ on a raw key forward when we’ve taken key forwards with our last pick in 2/3 drafts. I’m still bullish on Jeffo, and JVR has all the makings of an elite Key forward. What’s more, our 2021 flag was built on an outstanding midfield, not a ridiculous forward line. I’d prefer to address our aging midfield before the inevitable media swarm next offseason 

Id rather we take a mid at our second pick as well. But there’s definitely too much smoke around Armstrong now to deny that we have a strong interest in him. 
Im assuming if we pick him it would mean we see Turner and Petty as defenders ling term. 
If we pick him given the other options that would be available JT must think he will be a gun. 

[12345_54321 1,110]

If Smith and Langford were available at our pick, Richmond will offer something over the odds with pick 6 to move to pick 5 so they can select Jagga and we get a pick + Langford. 

[Dee Boys 621]

16 minutes ago, 12345_54321 said:

If Smith and Langford were available at our pick, Richmond will offer something over the odds with pick 6 to move to pick 5 so they can select Jagga and we get a pick + Langford. 

Why? All the talk recently is they’re heavily into Smillie and would take him over Jagga if they’re both available.