2024 Phantom Drafts

[Demonland 70,020]

 

[Little Goffy 13,901]

Seems like there are two unusual phases in the draft.

The sheer volume and variety of gun mids at the very start of the draft is impressive, but what has caught my eye is the swarm of key position players starting from late in the first round and continuing into the 30s.

My overall thinking at the moment is to hold onto our first pick to monitor for a slider of interest, but if no specific player we want makes it then we should be seriously looking at the early second round instead.

It'll be a live trading festival for us again, made more complicated by wanting to ensure we can burn our later picks to pay for Yze.

Speaking of whom, he got a respectable write-up on RookieMeCentral the other day but it doesn't help any of us figure out his draft position. Still looks like he will go pretty late.

 

#15 Noah Yze
Defender/Midfielder | 190cm | 12/04/2006

Stats: 23 disposals, 4 tackles, 6 inside 50s

A prospect of intrigue to Melbourne fans as a father-son this year, Yze produced arguably his best game to date. The versatile 190cm prospect started in defence and was then thrown into midfield as a good size matchup for the likes of Josh Smillie and Oliver Greeves. His strength was evident when tackling, while also absorbing contact well and looking quite comfortable in the clinches. Overall, he performed solidly in both roles and held his own against handy opposition.

 

[Demonland 70,020]

 

[spirit of norm smith 14,849]

Phantom draft update: 

1 Finn O'Sullivan - Oakleigh

2. ***Brisbane match bid. Levi Ashcroft Father son.

3. Jagga Smith - Oakleigh

4. Luke Trainor - Sandringham 
5. Josh Smillie - Eastern

6. Sid Draper - Sth Adel 

7.***Suns match bid - Leonardo Lombard (Academy )
8. Harvey Langford - Dandenong⭐️
9. Sam Lalor- GWV⭐️

10. Xavier Lindsay - Gippsland⭐️
11. Murphy Reid - Sandringham
12. Tobie Travaglia - Bendigo

13. Tom Gross - Oakleigh
14. Taj Hotton - Sandringham 

15. Harry Armstrong - Sandringham 

16. ***Blues match bid. Father son. Ben Camporeale - Glenelg SA

17. Bo Allan - WA
18.***Lions match bid. Sam Marshall - Bris Lions academy

19. Joe Berry - Murray

20. Alix Tauru - Gippsland
21. Harry O'Farrell - Calder

22. Jobe Shanahan - Bendigo (NSW) 

23. Christian Moraes - Eastern 

24. Jonty Faull - GWV

25. **** Ess match bid. Isaac Kako - Calder (Ess NGA) 

26. Alex Dodson- SA 
27. Jack Whitlock - Murray
28. Harrison Oliver - Sandringham 
29. Cooper Hynes - Dandenong
30. Matt Whitlock- Murray

31. ****Crows match bid. Father son. Tyler Welsh - WWT 

32. Thomas Sims - Northern 
33. Jesse Dattoli - Northern

34. Charlie Nicholls - Central District SA

35. Lachie Jacques - Geelong
36. Hamish Davis - Claremont WA

37. *** Port match bid. NGA. Benny Barrett - Sth Adel
38. Zak Johnson- Northern

39. Kade Herbert - SA
40. Kayle Gerryn - West Perth

41. Josh Murphy - Murray

42. Nathaniel Sulzberger - Sandringham/  Tassie 

43.****Sydney match bid  Joel Cochran (academy) 

44. ***Blues match bid.  Father son. Luke Camporeale - Glenelg SA
45. Angus Clarke - Glenelg
46. Archer Day-Wicks - Bendigo
47. Damon Hollow - Calder
48. Jack Ough - GWV 
49. Noah Mraz - Dandenong

50. Lucas McInerney - Northern

51. Patrick Retschko - Oakleigh 

52. Phoenix Hargrave - Sth Adel 
53. Sam Davidson - RICHMOND VFL 
54. Jaxon Artemis- WA

55.*** Port Adelaide match bid. Father son. Louis Montgomery - Nth Adel 

56. Nash King - Calder 
57. Malakai Champion - Subiaco
58. Cody Anderson - Eastern

59. Jasper Alger -Oakleigh

60. Harry Charlson - GWV

61. Zane Cochrane - Oakleigh
62. Keighton Matofai-Forbes - Western
63. Oliver Depaoli-Kubank - Tassie
64. Luke Urquhart WA

65. Ned Bowman - Norwood SA

66. Cody Angove -WA

67. Bailey McKenzie - Sandringham 

68. James Barrat - Bendigo 

69. Riley Bice - Werribee VFL

70. Josh Dolan - Sandringham 

of course Noah Yze - Dees (Cat A rookie - father son) and Ricky Mentha - Dees (rookie Cat B, NGA) 

[spirit of norm smith 14,849]

2024 draft rankings update …

1 Finn O'Sullivan - Oakleigh⭐️

2. ***Brisbane match bid. Levi Ashcroft Father son.

3. Harvey Langford- Dandenong⭐️

4. Sid Draper - Sth Adel ⭐️

5. Sam Lalor- GWV⭐

6. Jagga Smith - Oakleigh

7. Luke Trainor - Sandringham 

8. ***Suns match bid - Leonardo Lombard (Academy )

9. Xavier Lindsay - Gippsland⭐

10. Josh Smillie - Eastern
11. Murphy Reid - Sandringham
12. Tobie Travaglia - Bendigo

13. Harry Armstrong - Sandringham
14. Taj Hotton - Sandringham 

15.  Jobe Shanahan - Bendigo (NSW) 

16. ***Blues match bid. Ben Camporeale - Glenelg SA ( father son)

17. Bo Allan - WA
18.***Lions match bid. Sam Marshall - Bris Lions academy

19. Joe Berry - Murray

20. Alix Tauru - Gippsland
21. Tom Gross - Oakleigh

22. Alex Dodson- SA 

23. Harry O'Farrell - Calder

24. Cooper Hynes - Dandenong

25. **** Ess match bid. Isaac Kako - Calder (Ess NGA) 

26. Hamish Davis - Claremont WA

27. Jesse Dattoli - Northern
28. Jack Whitlock - Murray
29. Harrison Oliver - Sandringham 
30. Christian Moraes - Eastern 

31. ****Crows match bid. Father son. Tyler Welsh - WWT 

32. Thomas Sims - Northern 
33. Jonty Faull - GWV

34. Matt Whitlock- Murray

35. Lachie Jacques - Geelong
36.Charlie Nicholls - Central District SA

37. Noah Mraz - Dandenong
38. Angus Clarke - Glenelg
39. Josh Murphy - Murray
40. Kayle Gerryn - West Perth

41. Nathaniel Sulzberger - Sandringham/  Tassie 

42. James Barrat - Bendigo

43.****Sydney match bid  Joel Cochran (academy) 
44.  Archer Day-Wicks - Bendigo
45.  Riley Bice - Werribee VFL

46. ***Blues match bid.  Father son. Luke Camporeale - Glenelg SA
47. Kade Herbert - SA
48. Jack Ough - GWV

49. *** Port match bid. NGA. Benny Barrett - Sth Adel

50. Lucas McInerney - Northern

51. Clancy Dennis - WA

52. Phoenix Hargrave - Sth Adel 
53. Sam Davidson - RICHMOND VFL 
54. Jaxon Artemis- WA

55.*** Port Adelaide match bid. Father son. Louis Montgomery - Nth Adel 

56. Nash King - Calder 
57. Malakai Champion - Subiaco
58. Cody Anderson - Eastern

59. Jasper Alger -Oakleigh

60. Lucca Grego - Western

61. Zane Cochrane - Oakleigh
62. Patrick Retschko - Oakleigh 
63. Oliver Depaoli-Kubank - Tassie
64. Luke Kennedy - Sandringham 

65. Ned Bowman - Norwood SA

66. Cody Angove -WA

67. Bailey McKenzie - Sandringham 

68. Zak Johnson- Northern  

69.Keighton Matofai-Forbes - Western

70. Josh Dolan - Sandringham 

71. Oliver Warburton - Murray

72.Harry Charlson - GWV

73.  Luke Urquhart - WA 

74. Damon Hollow - Calder

THEN of course there is Noah Yze - Dees (Cat A rookie - father son) and Ricky Mentha - Dees (rookie Cat B, NGA) 

This is a deep draft with plenty of talent , youngsters already showing AFL prepared skills.  Though any youngster post 50 is more a rookie chance 

The only “Phantom” with real credence is Cal Twomey’s late mail in the weeks close to the draft, ideally a week or so pre draft. This is because his media role gives him access to club recruiters and more notably player agents privy to the levels of interest shown by clubs in specific players.

[dazzledavey36 52,403]

6 minutes ago, spirit of norm smith said:

 

2024 draft rankings update …

1 Finn O'Sullivan - Oakleigh⭐️

2. ***Brisbane match bid. Levi Ashcroft Father son.

3. Harvey Langford- Dandenong⭐️

4. Sid Draper - Sth Adel ⭐️

5. Sam Lalor- GWV⭐

6. Jagga Smith - Oakleigh

7. Luke Trainor - Sandringham 

8. ***Suns match bid - Leonardo Lombard (Academy )

9. Xavier Lindsay - Gippsland⭐

10. Josh Smillie - Eastern
11. Murphy Reid - Sandringham
12. Tobie Travaglia - Bendigo

13. Harry Armstrong - Sandringham
14. Taj Hotton - Sandringham 

15.  Jobe Shanahan - Bendigo (NSW) 

16. ***Blues match bid. Ben Camporeale - Glenelg SA ( father son)

17. Bo Allan - WA
18.***Lions match bid. Sam Marshall - Bris Lions academy

19. Joe Berry - Murray

20. Alix Tauru - Gippsland
21. Tom Gross - Oakleigh

22. Alex Dodson- SA 

23. Harry O'Farrell - Calder

24. Cooper Hynes - Dandenong

25. **** Ess match bid. Isaac Kako - Calder (Ess NGA) 

26. Hamish Davis - Claremont WA

27. Jesse Dattoli - Northern
28. Jack Whitlock - Murray
29. Harrison Oliver - Sandringham 
30. Christian Moraes - Eastern 

31. ****Crows match bid. Father son. Tyler Welsh - WWT 

32. Thomas Sims - Northern 
33. Jonty Faull - GWV

34. Matt Whitlock- Murray

35. Lachie Jacques - Geelong
36.Charlie Nicholls - Central District SA

37. Noah Mraz - Dandenong
38. Angus Clarke - Glenelg
39. Josh Murphy - Murray
40. Kayle Gerryn - West Perth

41. Nathaniel Sulzberger - Sandringham/  Tassie 

42. James Barrat - Bendigo

43.****Sydney match bid  Joel Cochran (academy) 
44.  Archer Day-Wicks - Bendigo
45.  Riley Bice - Werribee VFL

46. ***Blues match bid.  Father son. Luke Camporeale - Glenelg SA
47. Kade Herbert - SA
48. Jack Ough - GWV

49. *** Port match bid. NGA. Benny Barrett - Sth Adel

50. Lucas McInerney - Northern

51. Clancy Dennis - WA

52. Phoenix Hargrave - Sth Adel 
53. Sam Davidson - RICHMOND VFL 
54. Jaxon Artemis- WA

55.*** Port Adelaide match bid. Father son. Louis Montgomery - Nth Adel 

56. Nash King - Calder 
57. Malakai Champion - Subiaco
58. Cody Anderson - Eastern

59. Jasper Alger -Oakleigh

60. Lucca Grego - Western

61. Zane Cochrane - Oakleigh
62. Patrick Retschko - Oakleigh 
63. Oliver Depaoli-Kubank - Tassie
64. Luke Kennedy - Sandringham 

65. Ned Bowman - Norwood SA

66. Cody Angove -WA

67. Bailey McKenzie - Sandringham 

68. Zak Johnson- Northern  

69.Keighton Matofai-Forbes - Western

70. Josh Dolan - Sandringham 

71. Oliver Warburton - Murray

72.Harry Charlson - GWV

73.  Luke Urquhart - WA 

74. Damon Hollow - Calder

THEN of course there is Noah Yze - Dees (Cat A rookie - father son) and Ricky Mentha - Dees (rookie Cat B, NGA) 

This is a deep draft with plenty of talent , youngsters already showing AFL prepared skills.  Though any youngster post 50 is more a rookie chance 

The only “Phantom” with real credence is Cal Twomey’s late mail in the weeks close to the draft, ideally a week or so pre draft. This is because his media role gives him access to club recruiters and more notably player agents privy to the levels of interest shown by clubs in specific players.

Prefer Riak Andrew over Yze.

[manny100 1,338]

1 hour ago, spirit of norm smith said:

 

2024 draft rankings update …

1 Finn O'Sullivan - Oakleigh⭐️

2. ***Brisbane match bid. Levi Ashcroft Father son.

3. Harvey Langford- Dandenong⭐️

4. Sid Draper - Sth Adel ⭐️

5. Sam Lalor- GWV⭐

6. Jagga Smith - Oakleigh

7. Luke Trainor - Sandringham 

8. ***Suns match bid - Leonardo Lombard (Academy )

9. Xavier Lindsay - Gippsland⭐

10. Josh Smillie - Eastern
11. Murphy Reid - Sandringham
12. Tobie Travaglia - Bendigo

13. Harry Armstrong - Sandringham
14. Taj Hotton - Sandringham 

15.  Jobe Shanahan - Bendigo (NSW) 

16. ***Blues match bid. Ben Camporeale - Glenelg SA ( father son)

17. Bo Allan - WA
18.***Lions match bid. Sam Marshall - Bris Lions academy

19. Joe Berry - Murray

20. Alix Tauru - Gippsland
21. Tom Gross - Oakleigh

22. Alex Dodson- SA 

23. Harry O'Farrell - Calder

24. Cooper Hynes - Dandenong

25. **** Ess match bid. Isaac Kako - Calder (Ess NGA) 

26. Hamish Davis - Claremont WA

27. Jesse Dattoli - Northern
28. Jack Whitlock - Murray
29. Harrison Oliver - Sandringham 
30. Christian Moraes - Eastern 

31. ****Crows match bid. Father son. Tyler Welsh - WWT 

32. Thomas Sims - Northern 
33. Jonty Faull - GWV

34. Matt Whitlock- Murray

35. Lachie Jacques - Geelong
36.Charlie Nicholls - Central District SA

37. Noah Mraz - Dandenong
38. Angus Clarke - Glenelg
39. Josh Murphy - Murray
40. Kayle Gerryn - West Perth

41. Nathaniel Sulzberger - Sandringham/  Tassie 

42. James Barrat - Bendigo

43.****Sydney match bid  Joel Cochran (academy) 
44.  Archer Day-Wicks - Bendigo
45.  Riley Bice - Werribee VFL

46. ***Blues match bid.  Father son. Luke Camporeale - Glenelg SA
47. Kade Herbert - SA
48. Jack Ough - GWV

49. *** Port match bid. NGA. Benny Barrett - Sth Adel

50. Lucas McInerney - Northern

51. Clancy Dennis - WA

52. Phoenix Hargrave - Sth Adel 
53. Sam Davidson - RICHMOND VFL 
54. Jaxon Artemis- WA

55.*** Port Adelaide match bid. Father son. Louis Montgomery - Nth Adel 

56. Nash King - Calder 
57. Malakai Champion - Subiaco
58. Cody Anderson - Eastern

59. Jasper Alger -Oakleigh

60. Lucca Grego - Western

61. Zane Cochrane - Oakleigh
62. Patrick Retschko - Oakleigh 
63. Oliver Depaoli-Kubank - Tassie
64. Luke Kennedy - Sandringham 

65. Ned Bowman - Norwood SA

66. Cody Angove -WA

67. Bailey McKenzie - Sandringham 

68. Zak Johnson- Northern  

69.Keighton Matofai-Forbes - Western

70. Josh Dolan - Sandringham 

71. Oliver Warburton - Murray

72.Harry Charlson - GWV

73.  Luke Urquhart - WA 

74. Damon Hollow - Calder

THEN of course there is Noah Yze - Dees (Cat A rookie - father son) and Ricky Mentha - Dees (rookie Cat B, NGA) 

This is a deep draft with plenty of talent , youngsters already showing AFL prepared skills.  Though any youngster post 50 is more a rookie chance 

The only “Phantom” with real credence is Cal Twomey’s late mail in the weeks close to the draft, ideally a week or so pre draft. This is because his media role gives him access to club recruiters and more notably player agents privy to the levels of interest shown by clubs in specific players.

Thanks, great effort, can we take all of Yze, Mentha and Andrew?

[The Taciturn Demon 327]

17 hours ago, spirit of norm smith said:

This is a deep draft with plenty of talent

How often does a consensus draft designation - "deep", "shallow", "even", "lopsided" - match the reality. For example, was 2019 considered deep or generally good before hand? In now looks like an absolute beauty. 

[Axis of Bob 11,017]

4 minutes ago, The Taciturn Demon said:

How often does a consensus draft designation - "deep", "shallow", "even", "lopsided" - match the reality. For example, was 2019 considered deep or generally good before hand? In now looks like an absolute beauty. 

It very difficult to describe a draft in a single word because it's made up of a number of people, each of whom has different attributes and are rated differently by different clubs.

I think you'll get a pretty good idea from looking at how easy/hard it is for clubs to trade into certain areas of the draft, in terms of how many picks change hands and how much you need to spend to get in there. For example, last year you saw teams fighting to get Gold Coast's pick 11 (we ended up paying 14, 27 and 35) whilst Adelaide got pick 14 for only pick 23 and 26. That's because, as Taylor said afterwards, there was a big drop off in quality after the first 12 players in the draft, in the eyes of most clubs. In 2019 a lot of clubs were willing to move draft picks around in that late 1st round-early 2nd round range, which probably indicates that there was still a bit of quality around and teams were searching for specific players they were interested in for a pretty even draft (after the first 2 or 3). There were some really excellent players in that lot but some proper misses as well.

Do you measure the strength of a draft on the quality of pick 1, 5, 10, 20, 30, 70? 

[Fat Tony 5,041]

42 minutes ago, Axis of Bob said:

It very difficult to describe a draft in a single word because it's made up of a number of people, each of whom has different attributes and are rated differently by different clubs.

I think you'll get a pretty good idea from looking at how easy/hard it is for clubs to trade into certain areas of the draft, in terms of how many picks change hands and how much you need to spend to get in there. For example, last year you saw teams fighting to get Gold Coast's pick 11 (we ended up paying 14, 27 and 35) whilst Adelaide got pick 14 for only pick 23 and 26. That's because, as Taylor said afterwards, there was a big drop off in quality after the first 12 players in the draft, in the eyes of most clubs. In 2019 a lot of clubs were willing to move draft picks around in that late 1st round-early 2nd round range, which probably indicates that there was still a bit of quality around and teams were searching for specific players they were interested in for a pretty even draft (after the first 2 or 3). There were some really excellent players in that lot but some proper misses as well.

Do you measure the strength of a draft on the quality of pick 1, 5, 10, 20, 30, 70? 

This is partially correct, but the recruiters regularly get it wrong. (Darcy Wilson was pick 18 last year.) It very hard to pick AFL players in under 18s.

Also, in any population distribution, it is the tails where there is big variance in ability. Some drafts have Hodge, Ball and Judd and some have some have Whitfield, O'Rourke and Plowman. But the difference after the pointy end the draft tends to be less between draft classes.

[seventyfour 966]

18 hours ago, spirit of norm smith said:

2024 draft rankings update …

1 Finn O'Sullivan - Oakleigh⭐️

2. ***Brisbane match bid. Levi Ashcroft Father son.

3. Harvey Langford- Dandenong⭐️

4. Sid Draper - Sth Adel ⭐️

5. Sam Lalor- GWV⭐

6. Jagga Smith - Oakleigh

7. Luke Trainor - Sandringham 

8. ***Suns match bid - Leonardo Lombard (Academy )

9. Xavier Lindsay - Gippsland⭐

10. Josh Smillie - Eastern
11. Murphy Reid - Sandringham
12. Tobie Travaglia - Bendigo

13. Harry Armstrong - Sandringham

If Armstrong and Smillie are available from 10-13, I hope we have a plan to get a second early pick, likely targeting one of the picks Richmond will get from Freo.

[Lord Neville X Flash 224]

1 hour ago, The Taciturn Demon said:

How often does a consensus draft designation - "deep", "shallow", "even", "lopsided" - match the reality. For example, was 2019 considered deep or generally good before hand? In now looks like an absolute beauty. 

2018 was hyped as a super draft with heaps of talent, particuarly the top 8: Walsh, Lukosius, Rankine, M.King, Rozee, B.King, Smith, Blakey (slipped to 10).

This draft also had Butters, Bobby Hill, Quanyor, Jordan Clark - and a plethora of players establishing a good career for themselves. 

So I think the recruiters were right this year at least

Edited yesterday at 03:54 by Lord Neville X Flash

[spirit of norm smith 14,849]

1 hour ago, The Taciturn Demon said:

How often does a consensus draft designation - "deep", "shallow", "even", "lopsided" - match the reality. For example, was 2019 considered deep or generally good before hand? In now looks like an absolute beauty. 

Yes sometimes it takes the 4th or 5th year after the draft to actually rate the elite top picks or the depth of a draft.  This year from attending a handful of Coates League games live, others online and watching the online videos of the championship matches, I think this years group has a deep of talent.  There is an elite group of mids, but also down in the 40s and 50+ others are definitely worth an AFL opportunity imv. 

[manny100 1,338]

If JT and his team thinks draft is a beauty then we may try to trade our future 1st back in. We will be looking at bringing White and Ah-Mu in next year so they will be guessing what sort of picks we need in 2025.

[Pennant St Dee 12,600]

Hamish Davis moving up the board, not mentioned in earlier phantom drafts, will continue to climb the way he’s going and will be top 20 by the end of September and likely to be first West Aussie drafted

[whatwhat say what 21,856]

1 hour ago, Lord Neville X Flash said:

2018 was hyped as a super draft with heaps of talent, particuarly the top 8: Walsh, Lukosius, Rankine, M.King, Rozee, B.King, Smith, Blakey (slipped to 10).

This draft also had Butters, Bobby Hill, Quanyor, Jordan Clark - and a plethora of players establishing a good career for themselves. 

So I think the recruiters were right this year at least

even then, nearly half of those players will be onto their second clubs by the start of 2025, and at least several of those - lukosius, rankine, bobby hill - arguably didn't amount to the players they were expected to be at their first club

interestingly only five premiership players - atkins from the cats, who was picked in the rookie draft, jordon and sparrow from us, and then quaynor plus norm smith medallist bobby hill, who i think the filth picked up for a pick in the 40s from gw$

 

Edited yesterday at 04:54 by whatwhat say what

[dazzledavey36 52,403]

18 minutes ago, Pennant St Dee said:

Hamish Davis moving up the board, not mentioned in earlier phantom drafts, will continue to climb the way he’s going and will be top 20 by the end of September and likely to be first West Aussie drafted

Ahead of Bo Allen?

[spirit of norm smith 14,849]

2 hours ago, Pennant St Dee said:

Hamish Davis moving up the board, not mentioned in earlier phantom drafts, will continue to climb the way he’s going and will be top 20 by the end of September and likely to be first West Aussie drafted

Yes I think he has pushed up to the mid 20s range now.  If the Dees get that pick 25 off the crows (ANB + MFC #51 -> Crows #25) then the following players are probably in the frame… Hamish Davis, Jesse Dattoli,  Harrison Oliver & Christian Moraes. 

[Storm Boy 338]

All eyes will be on Hamish Davis this Sunday afternoon 

[Lord Neville X Flash 224]

3 hours ago, whatwhat say what said:

even then, nearly half of those players will be onto their second clubs by the start of 2025, and at least several of those - lukosius, rankine, bobby hill - arguably didn't amount to the players they were expected to be at their first club

interestingly only five premiership players - atkins from the cats, who was picked in the rookie draft, jordon and sparrow from us, and then quaynor plus norm smith medallist bobby hill, who i think the filth picked up for a pick in the 40s from gw$

 

Moving clubs irrelevant imo, these guys have just turned 24 this year - so just entering prime.

Considering they could play for another 10 years if good enough, a lot more will end careers with a premiership medal. 

Of the top 13, 12 are on track to play 200+ games - Thomas, the anomaly, had nothing to do with football ability. 

[Pennant St Dee 12,600]

7 hours ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Ahead of Bo Allen?

Yes I believe so 

[spirit of norm smith 14,849]

8 hours ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Ahead of Bo Allen?

Yes I think Bo Allen is very impressive and I would rank 16-17. He has good size as a mid and skills.  
Davis at 25-29.  He’s a good runner and wins the footy.  It’s his kicking that might be a knock on him just imv.