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NON-MFC: Round 20

Demonland
in Melbourne Demons

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North are going to have a serious midfield in a couple of years

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    Bittery disappointed Carlton couldn't get the job done against an opponent which had only a tiny margin of % ahead of us. Blues still a club relying too much on a handful of stars, but at least their fans will be able to say 'but but but we were missing the greatest players ever' and still believe. Port are still chasable not only because we play them, but their other opponents are Sydney, Adelaide, and Freo in Perth.

    Feels strange to be keeping at least a half eye on all of today's other games. We could do some kind of motorcyle stunt jump over both Scott twins in one day if Geelong and Essendon squelch it against their low-ranked opponents.

    Plus, no harm in St Kilda coming home strong and making Magpie fans nervous.

    An Adelaide win over Hawthorn tomorrow would also clean up the chase while bringing a Collingwood bottom-4 finish into the range of possibilities. come to think of it, Adelaide are our absolute best friends for the rest of the season, with four games being against our close positional rivals.

    Brisbane either fail and bring themselves back into the peloton, or they do the job and remove Gold Coast from the race. Either result is acceptable but I wouldn't think Brisbane could stumble completely from here, so it'll be better to have on less chaser to worry about.

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    Carlton, solid block of training… 

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    4 hours ago, binman said:

    And we'd have plenty of posters saying that despite sitting 2nd on the ladder we are shot, having lost 3 of our last 5 (which is Carlton's  record in their last 5 games - with their two wins being against the 18th placed tigers and a lucky 19 point win over the 17th placed roos).

    The blues actually provide a good objectivity test case. 

    Do posters think, with their record, that the blues are toast now?

    In poor form but there is a month left for them to get it back. They have 5 genuine stars so they will still be in with a chance if they work into form and not get more injuries

    I have the Lions and Swans in front of them though

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    Damned if I'm hoping for the likes of Gold Coast to lose games to help us fall into the eight. I want to do it on our own merits. I hope they hammer Brisbane today and I'm glad Carlton coughed up another four points last night.  I want Carlton to drop out of the top four and go to Fremantle where they'll get a 2,000 ticket allocation instead of hosting the likes of GWS in front of 80,000 of their own knøb heads. 

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    1 hour ago, jnrmac said:

    Whats the record for teams off a 5 day break?

     

    Not sure, but I'd be guessing it's not statistically significant.

    We for instance have gone 50 50 this year. We beat the crows and lost by a point to the blues.

    But there are so many variables at play that make a statistical analysis of the win loss ratio problematic.

    For example the relative strength of the two teams. The swans off a five day break against the Eagles are still likely to win.

    Another variable is how many days break the opposition has.

    And yet another variable is how teams decide to prepare for the 5 day break, for example targeting specific games.

    For example we had a very clear plan for the port crows double that prioritised winning both games, potentially risking not maximising our chances of beating the lions the following week.

    I reckon we had a similar plan for the cats blues double.

    Which touches on another impact to consider - the impact of the five day break on the following game.

    After beating the crows off a five day break were flat as a tack against the lions at the G.

    After beating the cats in a torrid game, we came out flat 5 days later against the blues but came home like a train only to fall short by a point.

    We were again flat as a tack in our next game after a five day break - our loss to the Eagles.

    A better statistical analysis of the impact of the five day break would be whether a team under performed as measured by the betting line, a pretty reliable indicator.

    For example, the blues line last night was -9.5 points.

    Port won by 14, so a plus 23.5 points swing against the line.

    I am pretty confident based on my own punting that the data would show teams coming off a five day break statistically do poorly in terms of making their line (note: teams can win and still under perform against expectations).

    Edited by binman

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    4 hours ago, fr_ap said:

    Depends - have they been loading? 

    I  assume this is supposed to be a joke?

    Either way, it's a good question and one I wished was asked more, particularly by the media.

    I actually think there is a high likelihood loading has been a factor in the blues' performances in the last 6 weeks.

    Ditto for the swans who like the blues have also lost three of their last five.

    No coincidence they are one and two on the ladder and so can afford to train hard now as they have points in the bank.

    Edited by binman

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    17 minutes ago, Rab D Nesbitt said:

    Damned if I'm hoping for the likes of Gold Coast to lose games to help us fall into the eight. I want to do it on our own merits. I hope they hammer Brisbane today and I'm glad Carlton coughed up another four points last night.  I want Carlton to drop out of the top four and go to Fremantle where they'll get a 2,000 ticket allocation instead of hosting the likes of GWS in front of 80,000 of their own knøb heads. 

    Completely agree. If we deserve finals we will win 4 of the next 5. No point falling in playing rubbish

    I'm glad the Blues lost

    I've a sneaky feeling that GC will win today too.  They are very good at home.  9 from 9 I believe

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    1 hour ago, Little Goffy said:

    Bittery disappointed Carlton couldn't get the job done against an opponent which had only a tiny margin of % ahead of us. Blues still a club relying too much on a handful of stars, but at least their fans will be able to say 'but but but we were missing the greatest players ever' and still believe. Port are still chasable not only because we play them, but their other opponents are Sydney, Adelaide, and Freo in Perth.

    Feels strange to be keeping at least a half eye on all of today's other games. We could do some kind of motorcyle stunt jump over both Scott twins in one day if Geelong and Essendon squelch it against their low-ranked opponents.

    Plus, no harm in St Kilda coming home strong and making Magpie fans nervous.

    An Adelaide win over Hawthorn tomorrow would also clean up the chase while bringing a Collingwood bottom-4 finish into the range of possibilities. come to think of it, Adelaide are our absolute best friends for the rest of the season, with four games being against our close positional rivals.

    Brisbane either fail and bring themselves back into the peloton, or they do the job and remove Gold Coast from the race. Either result is acceptable but I wouldn't think Brisbane could stumble completely from here, so it'll be better to have on less chaser to worry about.

    Goofy - we must not rely on others; we need to get it done ourselves.  I am more bitterly disappointed by some of the games we have dropped.

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    Just now, monoccular said:

    Goofy - we must not rely on others; we need to get it done ourselves.  I am more bitterly disappointed by some of the games we have dropped.

    I have never ever been bitterly disappointed, in the slightest, when Carlscum have been beaten. 
    Goalless in the last quarter, may it long continue….

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    9 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

    If Port winning is not a disaster, it’s by far not a good result for us. If Carlton held or built on their 5 goal lead and we won by a few goals tonight, then guess who replaces Port in the 8?

    I’m thinking in terms of the rest of the season, quite frankly we need to win the next 4 games, incl GC away which will be tough. I like the idea of Carlton not having a home final.

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    1 hour ago, monoccular said:

    Goofy - we must not rely on others; we need to get it done ourselves.  I am more bitterly disappointed by some of the games we have dropped.

    No doubt on that. I'm just watching the puzzle pieces fall. We are in control of our destiny as far as top 8 goes, but a home final would be nice and top 4 still conceivable, but only if other results play out nicely.

    Plus, at the simplest realistic level, we're clearly still getting our act together and even if we're hitting form by September and have a reasonable shot at finals, we'd want those puzzle pieces to fall our way.

    Also, It's Goffy. I may be somewhat odd, but not a little goofy!

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    3 hours ago, DiscoStu17 said:

    Yeah. They’re cooked. 
    Maybe. 

    No maybes about Ess though. 
    They are absolutely charred. 

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    43 minutes ago, Little Goffy said:

    No doubt on that. I'm just watching the puzzle pieces fall. We are in control of our destiny as far as top 8 goes, but a home final would be nice and top 4 still conceivable, but only if other results play out nicely.

    Plus, at the simplest realistic level, we're clearly still getting our act together and even if we're hitting form by September and have a reasonable shot at finals, we'd want those puzzle pieces to fall our way.

    Also, It's Goffy. I may be somewhat odd, but not a little goofy!

    I think we will be death riding lots of clubs in lots of matches all the way to September.

    And be careful about the corrections....that's how nicknames start.😃

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    Top 4 Bombers do it again!

    this is too sweet

    Zero chance of finals for them now

    Hows bomberblitz going?

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    21 hours ago, Left Foot Snap said:

    FFS, yes - we also picked Clayton over Parish!

    It's a huge call but I have hopes that Jvr will be as good as Curnow.

    Mind you, two Curnows isn't enough.

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