The Run Home

[Lucifers Hero 39,600]

11 hours ago, rpfc said:

Ok, how about this LH - let’s take the lid off if we beat Freo over there and come back and beat GWS the week after.

Don't think I'll be taking the lid off any time soon.

Have no idea which of the remaining 6 games we win but I'm quietly optimistic we will make the 8.   Hopefully we then win a final and get that 'straight sets' / 'haven't won a final in x years' monkey off our back.

Edited July 17 by Lucifers Hero

[Gawndy the Great 9,011]

There are no easy games in the run home. To go 3-3 will be an absolute achievement and perhaps just get us through. 

Its an incredibly difficult feat playing Freo in Perth and with no Gawn will make it even more so. We are on a bit of a roll and i hope we can cause an upset, but being realistic (with a sprinkle of MFCSS), i cant see us getting within 6 goals. I sense one of those snap-back-to-reality with a bit of kick-in-the-guts MFC specials coming up. 

[middleagedemon 325]

16 hours ago, binman said:

That's the biggest load of old cobblers I've ever read.

But illuminating - the penny has just dropped.

Couldn't stay away huh?

That's funny.

Timing's right.

Pop up when we start losing.

Alas, like clock work the good form and wins return.

So I guess you be leaving soon.

In the meantime, see ya.

I was banned, so you're incorrect about 'popping up' when we're losing. 

My post was completely reasonable and my views would be echoed by others on here. Old cobblers because there are some home truths? 

Thanks for the well thought out response. 

 

 

[Sir Why You Little 36,985]

One week at a time Kiddies, one week at a time

With thorough planning and some luck (every team needs some luck) we can still make Top 4, our young kids have taken up the challenge of Senior football better than i expected. 
Losing to WCE and Freo, earlier in the year has hurt us, but Teams around us are also dropping games. 
This weekend’s games are all 8 pointers….

[HarpenDee 249]

Oh if we beat Freo and GWS the lid is definitely off. That form line combined with the coulda/shoulda win at the GABBA (and the Lions own form line stacks up) would put us in the mix vs everyone. Particulalry with a fully fit Gawn then returning.

 

But this is all the biggest IF ever. Just enjoying each game.

[Adam The God 30,129]

22 minutes ago, Sir Why You Little said:

One week at a time Kiddies, one week at a time

With thorough planning and some luck (every team needs some luck) we can still make Top 4, our young kids have taken up the challenge of Senior football better than i expected. 
Losing to WCE and Freo, earlier in the year has hurt us, but Teams around us are also dropping games. 
This weekend’s games are all 8 pointers….

Those two losses to the WA teams hurt, but the two games I'd argue hurt us more are the 1 point losses to Carlton and Brisbane. We win both those games and we're second.

[middleagedemon 325]

19 hours ago, Deestar9 said:

You obviously haven’t read articles or listened to discussions (not Binman’s) where the High Performance teams are arguably one of the most important factors. It’s not rocket science that you have to keep the performance levels of teams..players to a level that has them “cherry ripe” for finals but  the challenge this year is there’s been an extra game ,,,5 day breaks ..some teams with 2 byes etc. Players would also have their own personal programs ..,goals etc. This year has had more anomalies in terms of scoring ..results..upsets that I can remember..so good luck trying to work out all that & also when “other teams “ are loading. Whether you want to acknowledge this or not football is a science ..we only see the obvious things but it’s what we don’t know & shouldn’t know.. is quite simply what goes  on between those four walls. 

I have a full understanding of what 'in-season' loading is. I've played football my entire life and played at a level where in-season loading was deployed. 

My position on the matter isn't that it doesn't exist and never has been. 

It's that trying to decipher which results are decided by which 'phase of loading' we may be in is silly given the multitude of factors that also contribute to a result. 

Im confused by the point of your post. 

If 'in-season loading' was as dominant a factor in a 'result' as certain posters believe, there would be a lot more commentary about it across all forms of media during the season. It's not as if the topic of 'loading' is some kind of secret. Why don't football analysts talk about it us much as some posters do around this time of year? Maybe because it's not as big a factor in determining a result as some THINK. 

It's simply just another practice that a high performance team use to try and get an edge on their opponents at the pointy end of a season.

Should it be placed above diet, sleep routine, mindfulness/meditation practice, therapy/counselling, a healthy relationship with one's partner/family/children, pre-game preparation, post game preparation, week to week preparation, in-season niggle, motivation/arousal levels etc etc? There are myriad of factors that contribute to an individual's performance gameday performance. More than we could count. 

Jack Viney may be more fatigued in a match mid-season because he had a broken sleep the night before a match because of the need to tend to his waking child. 

Clayton Oliver may be more fatigued in the same game due to the fact that he stayed up too late playing video games and ate a pre-match meal that he shouldn't have. 

Steven May may be fatigued also in that same match because he's in a depression and had an argument with his partner the days leading up to the match. 

You see where I'm going. 

Deciding that the reason we look tired after a loss must be because of 'in-season loading' is just casting a blind-eye to everything else that IS going on. Not that MIGHT be. These athletes are human beings. They deal with the same things as us. 

Binman is someone who likes stats, trends, patterns and due to his borderline obsession with 'in-season loading', started placing far too much weight on it when analsying a loss. If you're convinced that 'loading' is a significant factor, you're going to search for stats that back your pre-determined judgement. Classic confirmation bias. 

But fatigue could also have been caused by any number of things, just like I pointed out. 

This will be my last post on the issue and hopefully posters don't think I'm 'bashing' binman. Cause I'm not. I'm just giving another view. 

And that should be okay I would have thought. 

 

Edited July 17 by middleagedemon

[Sir Why You Little 36,985]

36 minutes ago, Binmans PA said:

Those two losses to the WA teams hurt, but the two games I'd argue hurt us more are the 1 point losses to Carlton and Brisbane. We win both those games and we're second.

But they are decent Sides 

Losing those matches to the WA Teams should be unacceptable 

Selling home games for a 15 goal loss

Uggh…😡

[Guest]

4 hours ago, middleagedemon said:

I was banned, so you're incorrect about 'popping up' when we're losing. 

My post was completely reasonable and my views would be echoed by others on here. Old cobblers because there are some home truths? 

Thanks for the well thought out response. 

 

 

Well I’ll be a monkey’s uncle!!!

You were banned?!?!?!

Shock freakin’ horror 😱

You… the least inflammatory, most humble, least holier-than-thou, most affable poster ever (in this incarnation anyways)… YOU were banned?????

Boy oh boy, DL has really gone to the dogs.

PS Binman was being extremely magnanimous when he used the term Old Cobbler’s. 

[M_9 2,081]

5 hours ago, Lucifers Hero said:

.... Hopefully we then win a final and get that 'straight sets' / 'haven't won a final in x years' monkey off our back.

You absent the day Roman Numerals were taught? 

x = 10

FYI III = 3

[middleagedemon 325]

@WalkingCivilWaranything to actually add to a post that is not in any way criticising/'bagging' a player?

Care to give an actual view on the issue? Or just continue on giving nothing with your childish emojies? 

 

 

[Lucifers Hero 39,600]

1 hour ago, M_9 said:

You absent the day Roman Numerals were taught? 

x = 10

FYI III = 3

No I wasn't absent! 

Nor was I absent from the Algebra class where they teach that the x = the unknown number 😇

Edited July 17 by Lucifers Hero

[Little Goffy 14,462]

7 hours ago, Roost it far said:

I think Melksham will play next year. He’s only 32, very fit and has just given his body 12 months of rehab.  

Fingers crossed, because I'd love to see it. But I fear lugging around that chunky Gary Ayres Medal will slow him down.

He is certainly not looking like he's struggling!

[Lucifers Hero 39,600]

6 hours ago, Gawndy the Great said:

There are no easy games in the run home. To go 3-3 will be an absolute achievement and perhaps just get us through. 

Its an incredibly difficult feat playing Freo in Perth and with no Gawn will make it even more so. We are on a bit of a roll and i hope we can cause an upset, but being realistic (with a sprinkle of MFCSS), i cant see us getting within 6 goals. I sense one of those snap-back-to-reality with a bit of kick-in-the-guts MFC specials coming up. 

If a 6 goal loss is a 'sprinkle' of mfcss, I'd hate to see what a 'full serve' of mfcss would result in ... 🙄

[At the break of Gawn 4,460]

I've done the ladder predictor at least a dozen times, and I'm fairly confident 13 wins will be enough if expected results go our way (e.g. Dogs lose to Geelong and Sydney, Port lose to Carlton, Sydney and Freo at Optus etc) and we beat Port and the Giants. In my opinion the most crucial clash that can help us stay in with 13 wins is the Q clash game between the Suns and Brisbane. If Brisbane can knock the Suns off at HBS, then I'm fairly confident the Suns won't catch us based off their terrible away record while still assuming they beat West Coast and Richmond away. 

I've got the Suns, Port and Hawks all finishing on 12 wins. The Dogs and Pies on 11 wins.

My run home prediction is:

Freo - L

Giants - W

Dogs - W

Port - W

Suns - L

Pies - L

Although I'm pretty sure the Pies will be dead and buried by round 24, my past trauma makes me somehow expect to lose that game. 

Edited July 17 by At the break of Gawn

[JJR 681]

Not related to the thread, but did this bloke really ride his bike home after an AFL game 🤣

[whatwhat say what 22,700]

9 minutes ago, JJR said:

Not related to the thread, but did this bloke really ride his bike home after an AFL game 🤣

yep

doesn't live far from the g although i question his safety instincts on a wet saturday nite

[Demonstone 22,316]

9 hours ago, JJR said:

Not related to the thread, but did this bloke really ride his bike home after an AFL game 🤣

That's only part of the story.

He did ride home, but only to have a shower, pack a bag and then hop back on his bike and set off on a nice ride to Perth for the Freo game on Sunday.

[Sparrowsfart 47]

16 hours ago, Sir Why You Little said:

But they are decent Sides 

Losing those matches to the WA Teams should be unacceptable 

Selling home games for a 15 goal loss

Uggh…😡

Dockers have recently smacked us at the 'G too. Really doesn't matter.

[Pates 9,660]

On 16/07/2024 at 08:59, Roost it far said:

It's the loss to Carlton that annoys me the most, firstly giving them a 6 goal start and then the late umpiring when we had them on toast.....

I haven't given up on causing some carnage in this years finals yet. If we can hit the finals fit there's no one in the 8 I don't think we can beat.....for now just beat Freo. There's a real John Northey vibe about us atm, I think we like being the hunters.

That we couldn't manage a single point which could ultimately have given us the draw to get us in a better position drives me so nuts.

[Sir Why You Little 36,985]

2 hours ago, Sparrowsfart said:

Dockers have recently smacked us at the 'G too. Really doesn't matter.

We still shouldn’t be selling home games in 2024

[dazzledavey36 54,285]

15 hours ago, middleagedemon said:

@WalkingCivilWaranything to actually add to a post that is not in any way criticising/'bagging' a player?

Care to give an actual view on the issue? Or just continue on giving nothing with your childish emojies? 

 

 

Hahahahah! I think I've found my new favourite poster.

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,778]

If we don't quite get over the line this weekend, we still should be as high as 9th provided Dogs, Suns and Pies lose (or have a small win)

The good news is that Port play Carlton at Marvel next week which you'd favour them to lose. So if we beat GWS next week, we should be back in the 8. Dogs and Suns both have tough games next weekend against Sydney and Brisbane respectively.

I'm of the opinion that if we lose our next 2 games, then it's curtains for us.

[dazzledavey36 54,285]

2 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

If we don't quite get over the line this weekend, we still should be as high as 9th provided Dogs, Suns and Pies lose (or have a small win)

The good news is that Port play Carlton at Marvel next week which you'd favour them to lose. So if we beat GWS next week, we should be back in the 8. Dogs and Suns both have tough games next weekend against Sydney and Brisbane respectively.

I'm of the opinion that if we lose our next 2 games, then it's curtains for us.

I have us winning 3 games for the rest of the year which should get us in.

I do agree that if we lose the next two then I do think our season may be done.

[whatwhat say what 22,700]

27 minutes ago, Sir Why You Little said:

We still shouldn’t be selling home games in 2024

it's a difficult one

'sell' the home game as part of a sponsorship agreement with the nt gov and make ~$800k

conversely, have a 'home' game at docklands and lose ~$200k