Jason Taylor - visionary or overrated

[layzie 33,803]

I would say much more towards brilliant than overrated.

No draft guru has a 100% record and I certainly don't want him going anywhere. 

[DistrACTION Jackson 8,734]

3 hours ago, spirit of norm smith said:

Lots of hits and misses.  

Perhaps the lack of drafting the next level of midfielder and getting too many small forwards is a current issue.  2024 we must get mids. 

Not a big fan of Caleb and Kolt?

[Gawndy the Great 9,011]

One thing I know is I couldn’t do the job. Looking at previous years to think what if

…Josh Kelly, Bont Curnow, McKay…add any 2 of that to Trac, Oliver… etc I’d be having nightmares 

[jnrmac 20,065]

13 hours ago, Moonshadow said:

I reckon he was super keen to play with his bro, so Carlton were fine for him to have 'issues', perhaps even put extra mayo on them

Like Jack Darling where the rumours about his nocturnal activities were in overdrive pre-draft

[Axis of Bob 11,812]

That first year he turned a first rounder, a 3rd, a 5th and a 6th rounder plus 4 rookie picks into three 200 game players (Salem, Harmes and Hunt), a good ordinary player (JKH), a couple of mature fringe depth players (Clisby and Georgiou), a whiff (the real Max King) and a Neville Freaking Jetta (Nev, who played 118 games after being redrafted) is an outstanding draft based on the picks he had available to him. We took 2 of the 3 best players in the rookie draft, which is pretty good when there were 53 players selected.

To call it 5/10 is hilariously underselling it, like picking up three 200 gamers is just what every team does on average. Particularly with only one pick under pick 40.

For context, Collingwood (who Taylor had just come from) had picks 6, 10, 85 and 77, plus a rookie draft pick. They were Scharenberg (41 games), Freeman (2), T Langdon (89), Marsh (15) and Gault (6). If you add them up it's fewer games between them than from 3 individual players we drafted (not even including Jetta), and none of the Collingwood players have been on an AFL list since Jonathan Marsh was delisted by St Kilda in 2020.

Edited July 8 by Axis of Bob

[jnrmac 20,065]

3 hours ago, spirit of norm smith said:

Lots of hits and misses.  

Perhaps the lack of drafting the next level of midfielder and getting too many small forwards is a current issue.  2024 we must get mids. 

Here's the thing though. They have more info than us. Maybe they were worried about Kozzie going home and needed a plan b?

We did go through a long period without any effective small fwds and then in quick time got Bedford, Kozzie, Chandler, Spargo. You never know who will work out and who won't

Plus the fact that KPP recruiting is fraught with uncertainty. They are few and far between and take time.

Its definitely a moving target and you only have certain tools to work with - ie draft picks, trade currency, salary cap etc.

[Little Goffy 14,545]

Sorry to jump ahead because it looks like Deespicable is going to walk through the drafts chronologically (Thanks, looking forward to it @Deespicable ) I looked at this thread, then I looked at the 'Kozzie Pickett 100 games' thread, then I looked at the 2019 draft.

Pickett is indeed the first of his draft to reach 100.

Chasing breakaway includes Anderson (97) Serong (96) Rivers (93) Ash (93) and Jackson (91).

[Jeremy 981]

4 hours ago, spirit of norm smith said:

Lots of hits and misses.  

Perhaps the lack of drafting the next level of midfielder and getting too many small forwards is a current issue.  2024 we must get mids. 

What are the ‘lots’ of misses? 

[Maldonboy38 6,403]

When everything began to change with Peter Jackson, Paul Roos and  Jason Taylor as our Head of Recrruiting was the next best thing, quickly followed by making Nathan Jones skipper. Yes, there have been some recruiting misses but only because of the rose coloured glasses called hindsight. 

What I rate highly is his ability to trade picks to constantly get us multiple picks inside the top 20, even during years when we have finished high on the ladder and had little drafting positional power. 

Edited July 9 by george_on_the_outer

[middleagedemon 325]

Silly debate. 

No recruiting team nails every pick. 

But stack Taylor and co's record vs other clubs and I imagine he'd be in the top 5 for strike-rate. That's without doing any number crunching. 

He's been amazing for us. 

Which current recruiting team/head recruiter would you have over him aside from Stephen Wells at Geelong? 

 

[Lucifers Hero 39,805]

8 hours ago, Demon Disciple said:

JT has a fantastic eye for mids and smalls, but needs to get better in drafting quality talls.

May and Lever were traded in, Gawn was before his time, and we’ve been struggling to come up with his replacement or KPF’s for a long time.

Hoping JVR & Jeffo answer our prayers.

Petty and Turner may yet be 200+ game players for us. 

[whatwhat say what 22,755]

8 minutes ago, middleagedemon said:

Silly debate. 

No recruiting team nails every pick. 

But stack Taylor and co's record vs other clubs and I imagine he'd be in the top 5 for strike-rate. That's without doing any number crunching. 

He's been amazing for us. 

Which current recruiting team/head recruiter would you have over him aside from Stephen Wells at Geelong? 

 

derek hine at the filth

[roy11 3,853]

Any recruiting manager will have hits and misses.
Taylor doing a good job at the moment, perhaps we hold him in slightly higher esteem due to the drafting which occurred before him.
 

[Lucifers Hero 39,805]

At the risk of hijacking @Deespicable's future posts I'm going to fast forward to 2024.

For several years Taylor has not and shows no signs of using picks after round 2.  With the odd exception he has nailed all those picks.

I reckon an underrated Taylor talent is his picks of the rookies. 

Rookies that played on Sunday and could easily be 100+ game players for us:

• McVee 😍
• Turner
• Chandler
• Moriz-Wakefield

The first three have been or will soon be promoted to the Senior list.  AMW may also be on his way to the senior list.

That is awesome drafting.

And there is a bunch of other Rookies awaiting their chance.  I reckon there could be a few more potential Senior list players among them.

Edited July 9 by Lucifers Hero

[Fritta and Turner 4,415]

I think we should remember that JT doesn't pick the players, the Footy department does.

So if the FD asks for a one eyed one armed tall with the mange JT will tell them the next best available.

On that basis I think he has done a great job.

[whatwhat say what 22,755]

Just now, Lucifers Hero said:

Petty and Turner may yet be 200+ game players for us. 

talls drafted by taylor...

• max king - rookie draft pick 19 2012: 0 afl games  ❎
• oscar mcdonald - pick 53 2013: 87 ✅
• sam weideman - pick 9 2015: 75  ❎
• mitch king - pick 42 2015: 0 ❎
• liam hulett - pick 46 2015: 0 ❎
• lachlan filipovic - rookie pick 8 2017: 0 ❎
• tim smith (mature ager) - rookie pick 25 2017: 13 ❓
• declan keilty (mature ager) - rookie pick 41 2017: 2  ❎
• harrison petty - pick 37 2018: 75  ✅🏆
• luke jackson - pick 3 2019: 91  ✅ 🏆
• fraser rosman - pick 34 2020: 0 ❎
• daniel turner - mid year pick 22 2020: 11  ✅
• jacob van rooyen - pick 19 2021: 34  ✅
• matthew jefferson - pick 15 2020: yet to debut ❓
• jed adams - pick 38 2020: yet to debut  ❓
• will verrall - rookie pick 14 2020: yet to debut  ❓
• luker kentfield - mid year pick 11: yet to debut  ❓

i'm probably being a bit generous to the 'later' picks, like o mac, but to get over 80 games out of a pick 50+ is not bad going, while i think it's pretty hard to judge the success / otherwise of those mature age picks like tim smith

and i think turner is going to be a serious player for us for a long time, so that's a personal bias

if two of jefferson / adams / verrall / kentfield contribute at afl level then his ratio of hits: misses for talls will look markedly better

[old55 23,573]

1 hour ago, Axis of Bob said:

That first year he turned a first rounder, a 3rd, a 5th and a 6th rounder plus 4 rookie picks into three 200 game players (Salem, Harmes and Hunt), a good ordinary player (JKH), a couple of mature fringe depth players (Clisby and Georgiou), a whiff (the real Max King) and a Neville Freaking Jetta (Nev, who played 118 games after being redrafted) is an outstanding draft based on the picks he had available to him. We took 2 of the 3 best players in the rookie draft, which is pretty good when there were 53 players selected.

To call it 5/10 is hilariously underselling it, like picking up three 200 gamers is just what every team does on average. Particularly with only one pick under pick 40.

For context, Collingwood (who Taylor had just come from) had picks 6, 10, 85 and 77, plus a rookie draft pick. They were Scharenberg (41 games), Freeman (2), T Langdon (89), Marsh (15) and Gault (6). If you add them up it's fewer games between them than from 3 individual players we drafted (not even including Jetta), and none of the Collingwood players have been on an AFL list since Jonathan Marsh was delisted by St Kilda in 2020.

Two premiership players and a third in Hunt who would have been but for injury. I'll take that every year.

[Lucifers Hero 39,805]

4 minutes ago, whatwhat say what said:

talls drafted by taylor...

• max king - rookie draft pick 19 2012: 0 afl games  ❎
• oscar mcdonald - pick 53 2013: 87 ✅
• sam weideman - pick 9 2015: 75  ❎
• mitch king - pick 42 2015: 0 ❎
• liam hulett - pick 46 2015: 0 ❎
• lachlan filipovic - rookie pick 8 2017: 0 ❎
• tim smith (mature ager) - rookie pick 25 2017: 13 ❓
• declan keilty (mature ager) - rookie pick 41 2017: 2  ❎
• harrison petty - pick 37 2018: 75  ✅🏆
• luke jackson - pick 3 2019: 91  ✅ 🏆
• fraser rosman - pick 34 2020: 0 ❎
• daniel turner - mid year pick 22 2020: 11  ✅
• jacob van rooyen - pick 19 2021: 34  ✅
• matthew jefferson - pick 15 2020: yet to debut ❓
• jed adams - pick 38 2020: yet to debut  ❓
• will verrall - rookie pick 14 2020: yet to debut  ❓
• luker kentfield - mid year pick 11: yet to debut  ❓

i'm probably being a bit generous to the 'later' picks, like o mac, but to get over 80 games out of a pick 50+ is not bad going, while i think it's pretty hard to judge the success / otherwise of those mature age picks like tim smith

and i think turner is going to be a serious player for us for a long time, so that's a personal bias

if two of jefferson / adams / verrall / kentfield contribute at afl level then his ratio of hits: misses for talls will look markedly better

Thanks.  That is quite a list.

I mentioned only the 'quality' talls on our list that have played a game that the post I quoted seemed to miss.  It was a compliment to Taylor.

Edited July 9 by Lucifers Hero

[Axis of Bob 11,812]

3 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

Petty and Turner may yet be 200+ game players for us. 

The key position/rucks Taylor's drafted with picks inside the first 2 rounds:

Weideman (9), Petty (37), Jackson (3), Van Rooyen (19), Jefferson (15), Adams (38), 

Whilst it's too early to judge the success of Jefferson and Adams, the strike rate is really good. Everyone will reference the Weideman pick, which wasn't the best (albeit he's had a nearly 10 year AFL career so far) but the other picks have been unbelievably good. If Jefferson continues to develop then we'll have been able to get a 10 year forward structure out of two late first round picks, which is an absolute coup. There were really only about 4 or 5 talls worth picking in the 2021 draft, 3 of which were taken before our pick, and we got arguably the best one at 18 (Van Rooyen). 

Outside of that we really haven't even fired a shot at taller players in the draft. We clearly don't really rate talls in the back end of the draft and haven't really tried. Each of these players were taken early in Taylor's tenture and Oscar was probably a win, whilst the others weren't. You could argue Rosman was a tall but he was really drafted as a wingman.

Late ND picks: Oscar McDonald (53), Mitch King (42), Liam Hullett (46)

 

I would argue that Taylor has bee very successful drafting talls. however many supporters have tunnel vision because of how the Weideman pick played out. It'd be an interesting exercise to see if there are key forwards drafted after pick 15/18 in Taylor's time that could eventually be considered more successful picks than Van Rooyen and Jefferson. 

[Lucifers Hero 39,805]

11 minutes ago, Axis of Bob said:

The key position/rucks Taylor's drafted with picks inside the first 2 rounds:

Weideman (9), Petty (37), Jackson (3), Van Rooyen (19), Jefferson (15), Adams (38), 

Whilst it's too early to judge the success of Jefferson and Adams, the strike rate is really good. Everyone will reference the Weideman pick, which wasn't the best (albeit he's had a nearly 10 year AFL career so far) but the other picks have been unbelievably good. If Jefferson continues to develop then we'll have been able to get a 10 year forward structure out of two late first round picks, which is an absolute coup. There were really only about 4 or 5 talls worth picking in the 2021 draft, 3 of which were taken before our pick, and we got arguably the best one at 18 (Van Rooyen). 

Outside of that we really haven't even fired a shot at taller players in the draft. We clearly don't really rate talls in the back end of the draft and haven't really tried. Each of these players were taken early in Taylor's tenture and Oscar was probably a win, whilst the others weren't. You could argue Rosman was a tall but he was really drafted as a wingman.

Late ND picks: Oscar McDonald (53), Mitch King (42), Liam Hullett (46)

 

I would argue that Taylor has bee very successful drafting talls. however many supporters have tunnel vision because of how the Weideman pick played out. It'd be an interesting exercise to see if there are key forwards drafted after pick 15/18 in Taylor's time that could eventually be considered more successful picks than Van Rooyen and Jefferson. 

My comment was in the context of the post below referencing Taylor needing to be better at drafting quality talls.  I was highlighting quality talls currently on our list and playing games.  It was not intended as a retro or future look at all his drafting of talls.

My comment was intended as a compliment to Taylor's drafting. 

9 hours ago, Demon Disciple said:

JT has a fantastic eye for mids and smalls, but needs to get better in drafting quality talls.

May and Lever were traded in, Gawn was before his time, and we’ve been struggling to come up with his replacement or KPF’s for a long time.

Hoping JVR & Jeffo answer our prayers.

 

[Jeremy 981]

Laurie probably the only big stuff up of the past few years considering he was a first rounder. Such a shame Geelong snuck in and grabbed the pick before us to get Holmes. Holmes and Bowey would’ve been some haul in a pretty bad draft. Jefferson will be a player. 

[Axis of Bob 11,812]

39 minutes ago, Axis of Bob said:

It'd be an interesting exercise to see if there are key forwards drafted after pick 15/18 in Taylor's time that could eventually be considered more successful picks than Van Rooyen and Jefferson. 

This is the full list of (vaguely) AFL standard key forwards selected after pick 14 in the draft prior to 2022. This ignores those that were mature players redrafted (eg, doesn't include a 27 year old redrafted Mitch Brown but does include Ben Brown, Brodie Mihocek and Jake Ricciardi). 

2021- Jacob Van Rooyen (18)

2020- None

2019- Mitch Georgiades (21), Harry Jones (30), Harry Petty (37), Jake Ricciardi (51)

2018- Jacob Koschitzke (52)

2017- Oscar Allen (21), Brodie Mihocek (Rookie pick 22), Joel Amartey (rookie pick 28)

2016- Todd Marshall (16), Nick Larkey (73), Mitch Lewis (76), 

2015- None

2014- None

2013- Daniel McStay (25), Rory Lobb (29), Ben Brown (47), Matt Taberner (70)

Over this time period there would have been about 1000 draft pick made, of which there were only about 15 decent young key forwards drafted outside of the first half of the first round. What you see here is how rare it is to draft these types of players successfully without the best picks. Van Rooyen isn't the norm, he's an absolute exception and one of Taylor's best ever draft picks.

If we get a long term forward line out of Van Rooyen and Jefferson from late first round picks then they should build Jason Taylor (another) statue.

Edited July 9 by Axis of Bob

[Axis of Bob 11,812]

21 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

My comment was in the context of the post below referencing Taylor needing to be better at drafting quality talls.  I was highlighting quality talls currently on our list and playing games.  It was not intended as a retro or future look at all his drafting of talls.

My comment was intended as a compliment to Taylor's drafting. 

I know, I was backing your comments up. 🙂

[Lucifers Hero 39,805]

1 minute ago, Axis of Bob said:

I know, I was backing your comments up. 🙂

Thank you🙃

My bad.

[Engorged Onion 10,215]

15 minutes ago, Jeremy said:

Laurie probably the only big stuff up of the past few years considering he was a first rounder. Such a shame Geelong snuck in and grabbed the pick before us to get Holmes. Holmes and Bowey would’ve been some haul in a pretty bad draft. Jefferson will be a player. 

Language is interesting eh... if Geelong snuck in, then perhaps we didn't 'stuff up' (nor Laurie)* it was the way it fell on the night.... You can only draft who is still on the board. 😇

*not sure who came after Laurie