POSTGAME: Rd 09 vs Carlton

[DEElirium 16]

I know we lost but we can take so much out of that game gave them a 6 goal head start and the boys never gave up maybe trac should stay 80% forward he is reading the play so well and is a nightmare for defenders 

[binman 43,717]

10 hours ago, The heart beats true said:

Expected Scores:

#AFLBluesDees Final xScores:

CARL 75 from expected 51.1 (+2 rushed)

MELB 73 from expected 72.4 (+3 rushed)

Those first 5 goals being all goals is the only reason they won. Honestly I’m fed up with finding ways to not beat Carlton. 

This is where x score is useful.

I have zero doubt goody would have used it at quarter and half time to reinforce that the scoreboard didn't reflect the relative performance levels, and certainly not the effort levels.

It shows their kicking for goal, particularly early was brilliant- but anomalous.

Their set shots from say 40 are 50-50 chances.

Credit to them for kicking them, but once kicking for goal there's nothing we can do about their chances of kicking the goal.

In most circumstances they are something like 3.2 or 2.3 at quarter time and the game looks very different.

And our accuracy was bang on average.

Like the lions game, it wasn't a game we threw away because of innacracy. The lions and blues won because of their accuracy

Yes, we could point to bad misses, Petty comes to mind. But take that miss. On average that goal is still only kicked perhaps 70-75% of the time. 

For me the issue in terms of our kicking was the last kick inside 50, for most of the match, but particularly the first.

The game was actually pretty evenly balanced performance wise in the first 10 mins, but we butchered the ball going inside 50 - and credit to their defence, they were excellent- so had nothing to show for our efforts.

A couple of decent inside 50s and we get an early goal or two and the game looks different.

Edited May 10 by binman

[titan_uranus 25,042]

4 minutes ago, Gawndy the Great said:

I looked at it frame by frame last night with what was on the telly and said it wasn't clear enough. My gripe was more aimed at the dangerous tackle which was far more conclusive and the officiating in the first half.

So frustrating given they took a goal off us in the final last year. This time inconclusive, last time conclusive. 

There’s no doubt the dangerous tackle free was wrong. I don’t think Kemp staged, I just think his knee stuck in the turf. Either way, the tackle was fine and it was either holding the ball or play on.

[titan_uranus 25,042]

Just now, binman said:

This is where x score is useful.

I have zero doubt goody would have used it at quarter and half time to reinforce that the scoreboard didn't reflect the relative performance levels, and certainly not the effort levels.

It shows their kicking for goal, particularly early was brilliant- but anomalous.

Their set shots from say 40 are 50-50 chances.

Credit to them for kicking them, but once kicking for goal there's nothing we can do about their chances of kicking the goal.

In most circumstances they are something like 3.2 or 2.3 at quarter time and the game looks very different.

And our accuracy was bang on average.

Like the lions game, it wasn't a game we threw away because of innacracy. The lions and blues won because of their accuracy

Yes, we could point to bad misses, Petty comes to mind. But take that miss. On average that goal is still only kicked perhaps 70-75% of the time. 

For me the issue in terms of our kicking was tge ladt kick inside 50, fior most of the match but particularly the first.

The game was actually pretty evenly balanced performance wise in the first 10 mins, but we butchered the ball going inside 50 - and credit to their defence, they were excellent- so had nothing to show for our efforts.

A couple of decent inside 50s and we get an early goal or two and the game looks different.

I agree with your interpretation of the stat but there’s no doubt we had some really bad misses (Petty as you say, but Fritsch before that and Chandler too) that cruelled our chances. That can be true despite what you day about xScore.

[Brownie 5,986]

So who reckons Newman will get rubbed out for his elbow to ANBs jaw?

Late, left the ground. 

I reckon he'll get a fine. Because Carlton.

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/live-afl-scores-2024-carlton-blues-vs-melbourne-demons-round-9-updates-stats-video-how-to-stream-watch-news-blog/news-story/53a0904ddc0a2d7d0ca5e4062062263a

[Jaded No More 68,972]

Just now, titan_uranus said:

I agree with your interpretation of the stat but there’s no doubt we had some really bad misses (Petty as you say, but Fritsch before that and Chandler too) that cruelled our chances. That can be true despite what you day about xScore.

Also Kosi running into goal and getting run down. I reckon that happens once in a blue moon. He never get out run in those situations.

[58er 6,538]

1 minute ago, Jaded No More said:

Also Kosi running into goal and getting run down. I reckon that happens once in a blue moon. He never get out run in those situations.

But close to goal in last quarters he dies not always kick the goals. Just seems to be not always be composed and rushes his shot. 

[leave it to deever 17,517]

10 hours ago, At the break of Gawn said:

They got 6 goals from centre clearance. There’s your game.

Mini has his work cut out for him because we’ve been garbage all year at clearance.

And we didn't capitalize on our 61 i50s to 41.

Our tall fwds are not much chop. Jvr is averaging a goal a game. Petty much less than. Disco one a game but only starting.

It's doing much. 

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,936]

2 hours ago, demon3165 said:

And yet people complained about not being on prime time tv spot for years which is great for sponsors and thr club for exposure and now you don't want that cannot have it both ways.

I wasn't one of the people that complained about prime tv spots. I go to the games as opposed to watching them on TV so I couldn't care less what time slot we're on. I love Saturday afternoon footy which has become a TV dead zone.

The point I was making is that we clearly have an issue with Thursday night games given the record I quoted. If we have preparation issues heading into Thursday night games, I'd therefore be happy to not play in them.

[demosaw 1,067]

10 hours ago, Skuit said:

At one stage in the tense final quarter, Chandler tackled Cincotta over the boundary line. I've been stuck ever since trying to work out a worthy 'double-chin' pun.

gave him the ‘double-chin treatment’

[DubDee 26,114]

I was so annoyed at the loss but I just found out we won convincingly via the expected score

what a relief!

maybe we can share the points?

[58er 6,538]

2 hours ago, Winners at last said:

Spot on.

Demons have a poor percentage. A draw would have been as good as a win having regard to that.

Such a poor start to the match. Yes, good comeback but I can't help feeling disappointed. 

Let’s worry more about wins not percentage.
Most teams have a poor % only  Swans don’t. 
It’s only a third of the way through so % can be built by successive wins . 

[demosaw 1,067]

We are a just a quality defensive mid and an improved KPF off a flag. Who will step up?

We showed massive character not to lose by the opening 5 goals.

[58er 6,538]

1 minute ago, demosaw said:

We are a just a quality defensive mid and an improved KPF off a flag. Who will step up?

We showed massive character not to lose by the opening 5 goals.

Rivers on ball and Petty closer to goal as FF.? 

[binman 43,717]

11 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

I agree with your interpretation of the stat but there’s no doubt we had some really bad misses (Petty as you say, but Fritsch before that and Chandler too) that cruelled our chances. That can be true despite what you day about xScore.

Of course. Particularly the point in the match those misses occurred. 

Petty's miss wa a heartbreaker.

But players miss a high percentage of such shots. 

Against that, we kicked some clutch goals.

Tracc was unbelievable, discos nailed a long set sho on an angle and maxys long range bomb, after barely taking any time, was elite. 

[DubDee 26,114]

10 hours ago, Skuit said:

At one stage in the tense final quarter, Chandler tackled Cincotta over the boundary line. I've been stuck ever since trying to work out a worthy 'double-chin' pun. What was the end score? 

[drdrake 3,185]

6 minutes ago, leave it to deever said:

And we didn't capitalize on our 61 i50s to 41.

Our tall fwds are not much chop. Jvr is averaging a goal a game. Petty much less than. Disco one a game but only starting.

It's doing much. 

For the first 3 qtrs our pressure inside the forward 50m was poor.  I think at half time Kozzie hadn't touched it, Chandler maybe had 2, Billings was terrible.  Then Fritsch, Petty, Turner would have been luck to have 5 touches between them in the first half.

The speed Carlton was able to exit our forward 50 with we were very lucky our back 6 held up.

[deelusions from afar 1,854]

What a strange and disappointing night!  My reflections:

• We learnt a lot about the team which will be useful going forward this year:
  • Trac's ability going forward
  • ANB playing in the centre square (I assume to nullify and run with Walsh?)
  • Langdon playing more of an attacking role
  • How damaging /dynamic we can be when we need to score.
• Carlton's ins (Kemp, MccGovern, Hollands and Martin) were all very good particularly early.
• Carlton jumped us, were harder at the ball and also got us for strategy (Pittonet running forward to make Gawn accountable, not allowing Lever to go third man up) but the most important thing was we were able to adjust this and fix it after the 1st quarter.
• Beyond quarter time, Carlton were only able to score from stoppage.
• Our ball movement is definitely getting better - the way we moved the ball around in the last enabled us to create opportunities we couldn't have in previous years.
• Crucial misses and some umpiring calls (May touching Curnow's kick, the dump tackle) and we would have somehow won.

I'm hoping that it doesn't cost us at the end of the year - but also think you learn more from a loss than a win.  I hope they go to work on minimising the impact of a Weitering type player.  We get a bit more from Petty / van Rooyen / Turner and we win that game.

[Garbo 1,542]

17 minutes ago, binman said:

This is where x score is useful.

I have zero doubt goody would have used it at quarter and half time to reinforce that the scoreboard didn't reflect the relative performance levels, and certainly not the effort levels.

It shows their kicking for goal, particularly early was brilliant- but anomalous.

Their set shots from say 40 are 50-50 chances.

Credit to them for kicking them, but once kicking for goal there's nothing we can do about their chances of kicking the goal.

In most circumstances they are something like 3.2 or 2.3 at quarter time and the game looks very different.

And our accuracy was bang on average.

Like the lions game, it wasn't a game we threw away because of innacracy. The lions and blues won because of their accuracy

Yes, we could point to bad misses, Petty comes to mind. But take that miss. On average that goal is still only kicked perhaps 70-75% of the time. 

For me the issue in terms of our kicking was tge ladt kick inside 50, fior most of the match but particularly the first.

The game was actually pretty evenly balanced performance wise in the first 10 mins, but we butchered the ball going inside 50 - and credit to their defence, they were excellent- so had nothing to show for our efforts.

A couple of decent inside 50s and we get an early goal or two and the game looks different.

What expected scores won’t show is that they had us at arm length all night and just took the foot off too early and panicked at the end, once you get a lead like that it affords you all kinds of options, if we weren’t so far behind maybe Trac doesn’t go fwd full time and blues continue to build a lead. No way can anyone convince me we deserved to win that game last night based on expected scores, we were thoroughly outplayed for the for most of the first 3 qtrs.

To add expected score also assumes each point could be a potential goal, what it misses is if you goal it goes back to the centre and you reset, if you miss it’s a kick out and it’s still in your half for a potential repeat entry and another scoring chance which is often what occurs.

[Fork 'em 6,990]

Every week Windsor does something that reinforces the fact he's gonna be an absolute ripper.
His quick reaction to toe poke Vineys lunge over the defenders shoulder was forking brilliant.

And watching Gawn launch one of his bombs is one of the best sights in the game.

[Red But Mostly Blue 4,547]

5 minutes ago, binman said:

Of course. Particularly the point in the match those misses occurred. 

Petty's miss wa a heartbreaker.

But players miss a high percentage of such shots. 

Against that, we kicked some clutch goals.

Tracc was unbelievable, discos nailed a long set sho on an angle and maxys long range bomb, after barely taking any time, was elite. 

I did refer to the miss as Petty and the Heartbreakers, which I thought was a decent call. 

At the end of it, aside from a dud umpiring call here and there (which I thought were wrong calls, but won't blame for the loss), we lost in in Q1 for numerous reasons - aside from the fact that we gave up a 5-0 start (and then 6-0 at the start of Q2) (which you just can't do against sides, let alone dangerous sides like the Blues), which was partly because of their midfield dominance, but also because our i50 entries were so poor and we could not land a mark in there (they did, several times) - AND they were as you say, unusually accurate - an anomaly - any other day, they kick 4.1 or 3.2, and if so, we win. 

A very strange game. Won the i50 entries again, more scores, and x score - another moral victory, but no points. 

Just gutted we gave them another close one. I truly dislike their fans and am bummed we don't play them again this year. We can only hope we both make finals, and if we face them - we actually beat them. They are claiming us as their bunnies now. And while we know this is not true. The proof is in the results. They knocked us out of the finals, and now claimed another close one. We have to beat them on the scoreboard and not fluff it. Again. 

Long wait until then. But overall I think we're in good health. Really positive signs. But they will need to examine what happened in Q1. 

[binman 43,717]

35 minutes ago, Jaded No More said:

Also Kosi running into goal and getting run down. I reckon that happens once in a blue moon. He never get out run in those situations.

Fair play to I think cotteral. That was great defensive pressure.

[leave it to deever 17,517]

11 minutes ago, deelusions from afar said:

What a strange and disappointing night!  My reflections:

• We learnt a lot about the team which will be useful going forward this year:
  • Trac's ability going forward
  • ANB playing in the centre square (I assume to nullify and run with Walsh?)
  • Langdon playing more of an attacking role
  • How damaging /dynamic we can be when we need to score.
• Carlton's ins (Kemp, MccGovern, Hollands and Martin) were all very good particularly early.
• Carlton jumped us, were harder at the ball and also got us for strategy (Pittonet running forward to make Gawn accountable, not allowing Lever to go third man up) but the most important thing was we were able to adjust this and fix it after the 1st quarter.
• Beyond quarter time, Carlton were only able to score from stoppage.
• Our ball movement is definitely getting better - the way we moved the ball around in the last enabled us to create opportunities we couldn't have in previous years.
• Crucial misses and some umpiring calls (May touching Curnow's kick, the dump tackle) and we would have somehow won.

I'm hoping that it doesn't cost us at the end of the year - but also think you learn more from a loss than a win.  I hope they go to work on minimising the impact of a Weitering type player.  We get a bit more from Petty / van Rooyen / Turner and we win that game.

Tracca was a monster up fwd.

But I'm not sure if we can't afford to have him play there .

It's a tough call taking him away from our midfield.

[DeeZee 7,445]

The lack of intensity in the first quarters of the Carlton and Brisbane games are worrying factors for me.

You'd think they’d be super pumped for these big games.

Were were switched on against the cats, but way off it against Blues and Lions.

[leave it to deever 17,517]

10 minutes ago, Red But Mostly Blue said:

But they will need to examine what happened in Q1. 

Same thing as what happened in two of our three games prior.

Just dead said flat.

We need some sort of new motivation drill before games. We can't continue coming out so dozy.