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If we miss the final 8 next year then ...


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Slightly off the topic but every single supporter could do worse than watching a compilation of Clayton Oliver's highlights. 

It has been forgotten the calibre of footballer Clarry is. 

There's no way we miss the 8. The coach is brilliant and he's hired a strong strategist in McQualter. 

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11 minutes ago, Dannyz said:

Slightly off the topic but every single supporter could do worse than watching a compilation of Clayton Oliver's highlights. 

It has been forgotten the calibre of footballer Clarry is. 

There's no way we miss the 8. The coach is brilliant and he's hired a strong strategist in McQualter. 

Got a link to Choo Choos highlights reel?

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19 hours ago, Katrina Dee Fan said:

Yikes, it doesn't take much for the Chicken Little Melbourne supporters to come out from under their doonas, does it???

Just two years in a row of straight sets exits after winning a flag with a list that should be making a preliminary final at minimum.

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12 hours ago, Jibroni said:

Might take up smoking to manage the anxiety.

It doesn’t work… trust me. 😭

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We won't miss the 8, but I don't think we make top 4 in my honest opinion. 

There is still concerns with our forward line which obviously got shown out during the finals series.

There is also some concerns around Pettys injury. Speaking to a player this off season who I bumped into up here and he stated that the injury in itself was pretty significant and the club will take all precautionary measures. Reckons he might not be back in full training around mid to late February.. but that was purely his own opinion. 

I also have concerns around our midfield and ruck depth. Last year we did have Harmes, Grundy, Jordon ready to step in immediately when needed, but this year our depth is very thin with young players like Woewodin who are still unknown at senior level. We've been very lucky that the likes of Petracca, Viney and Brayshaw have been playing consistently each week for the past 2 years, but they're also getting older as well so the hits and knocks will probably get to them at some stage next year. 

The way I see it is that next year will be a year where we'll take a step back purely because I think we'll focus on getting some games into kids such as Howes, Turner, Adams, Woewodin, Laurie, Windsor, Tholstrup, AMW and even Will Varrell with the hope that we can then catapult again with a rejuvenated list for the next few years. 

I would be okay with this if it means it gives us the opportunity to extend our premiership window for the next few years.

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36 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

We won't miss the 8, but I don't think we make top 4 in my honest opinion. 

There is still concerns with our forward line which obviously got shown out during the finals series.

There is also some concerns around Pettys injury. Speaking to a player this off season who I bumped into up here and he stated that the injury in itself was pretty significant and the club will take all precautionary measures. Reckons he might not be back in full training around mid to late February.. but that was purely his own opinion. 

I also have concerns around our midfield and ruck depth. Last year we did have Harmes, Grundy, Jordon ready to step in immediately when needed, but this year our depth is very thin with young players like Woewodin who are still unknown at senior level. We've been very lucky that the likes of Petracca, Viney and Brayshaw have been playing consistently each week for the past 2 years, but they're also getting older as well so the hits and knocks will probably get to them at some stage next year. 

The way I see it is that next year will be a year where we'll take a step back purely because I think we'll focus on getting some games into kids such as Howes, Turner, Adams, Woewodin, Laurie, Windsor, Tholstrup, AMW and even Will Varrell with the hope that we can then catapult again with a rejuvenated list for the next few years. 

I would be okay with this if it means it gives us the opportunity to extend our premiership window for the next few years.

Have to say this is my thinking as well. 

We’ll be back for more finals footy, the list and gameplan is there. However there are more loose ends coming into next year than the previous two. Petty’s injury is a concern for me as well, Lisfranc injuries are always wait and see so a big question mark there considering he’s probably moved into the top 6 or so most important players. 

The ruck depth is definitely another, as much as Max wants to be a majority ruckman we will need that reliever ruck as well. There isn’t enough data on Fullerton and weather he can do that job or even as a pinch hitting forward. I love the look of Varrell but this needs to be another development year rather than pinning our hopes on him. I’m stoked that we chose Windsor as it addressed a need but again you can’t bank on first year players to come straight in and perform roles to elite levels, same with Tholstrup.

Apart from above, the ‘what if’ list continues: Is Salem’s health under control and can he get back to that 2021 form? Can either Bowey or Rivers move into the middle and make a real difference week to week? Will T-Mac and BBB be able to contribute or are they just VFL mentors now? Can we trust the midfield depth we have yet? Time will tell, a ripper pre season with barely any injuries may alter my thinking but that’s where I stand. If it’s a step back to go forward I’m ok with it as well. 
 

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We still have a decent list still (albeit our stars are either coming to the end of their prime or have gone totally off the rails, the forward line is a massive concern as is ruck depth after the mishandling of Grundy), what it will come down to is the coach’s ability to manage and select the correct team each week.

In 2022 we limped into the finals as the coach refused to manage or rest key players throughout the season while Casey was full of players in form who only lost one game all year. Geelong of course did exactly this and won the flag in a canter.

In 2023 team selection was a constant mess, particularly around the selection or lack thereof tall defenders and forwards (May and Lever totally at sea without Petty/Tomlinson, Briwn playing for Casey after retuning from injuring, Joel Smith being played as a forward four years too late and so on).

It of course culminated in the greatest coaching blunder in modern finals history of selecting Schache as the sub while an in-form Hibberd was dropped and Grundy sat in the stands while Gawn had a broken toe and then the sub wasn’t even used!

 

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1 hour ago, dazzledavey36 said:

We won't miss the 8, but I don't think we make top 4 in my honest opinion. 

There is still concerns with our forward line which obviously got shown out during the finals series.

There is also some concerns around Pettys injury. Speaking to a player this off season who I bumped into up here and he stated that the injury in itself was pretty significant and the club will take all precautionary measures. Reckons he might not be back in full training around mid to late February.. but that was purely his own opinion. 

I also have concerns around our midfield and ruck depth. Last year we did have Harmes, Grundy, Jordon ready to step in immediately when needed, but this year our depth is very thin with young players like Woewodin who are still unknown at senior level. We've been very lucky that the likes of Petracca, Viney and Brayshaw have been playing consistently each week for the past 2 years, but they're also getting older as well so the hits and knocks will probably get to them at some stage next year. 

The way I see it is that next year will be a year where we'll take a step back purely because I think we'll focus on getting some games into kids such as Howes, Turner, Adams, Woewodin, Laurie, Windsor, Tholstrup, AMW and even Will Varrell with the hope that we can then catapult again with a rejuvenated list for the next few years. 

I would be okay with this if it means it gives us the opportunity to extend our premiership window for the next few years.

Sensible post with a long term view as opposed to many who think if we don’t win it in 2024 that’s it for a decade

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11 minutes ago, Super Sub Schache said:

 

It of course culminated in the greatest coaching blunder in modern finals history of selecting Schache as the sub while an in-form Hibberd was dropped and Grundy sat in the stands while Gawn had a broken toe and then the sub wasn’t even used!

 

I’d say when Gus put us 5 points up with a minute to go in the 2021 GF and Bevo failed to send a runner out telling English to hit down and in close, playing a sweeper and lock it in at all costs trumps it by a fair way

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23 hours ago, poita said:

I think we're 50/50 to play finals in 2024, and considerably less than that in 2025. Our depth in key areas is almost non-existent and we are very heavily reliant on Gawn and May to play full seasons, which is unlikely given their ages.

The age profile of our list says that our fall, when it inevitably comes, will be pretty brutal. I doubt the coach and the list manager will survive.

Disagree regarding your second paragraph. Gawn and May are the only significant losses to come due to age over the next few years (I consider Tmac and BBB already done). Important players yes, but with free agency and likely a good amount of cap space we would be in a good position to replace them. Ruckman can go on to a surprisingly good age - Sandilands was 36 when he retired (Gawn is almost 32). Our age profile is excellent.

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30 minutes ago, Pennant St Dee said:

Sensible post with a long term view as opposed to many who think if we don’t win it in 2024 that’s it for a decade

Need to take one step back to then take two steps forward.

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2 hours ago, dazzledavey36 said:

We won't miss the 8, but I don't think we make top 4 in my honest opinion. 

There is still concerns with our forward line which obviously got shown out during the finals series.

There is also some concerns around Pettys injury. Speaking to a player this off season who I bumped into up here and he stated that the injury in itself was pretty significant and the club will take all precautionary measures. Reckons he might not be back in full training around mid to late February.. but that was purely his own opinion. 

I also have concerns around our midfield and ruck depth. Last year we did have Harmes, Grundy, Jordon ready to step in immediately when needed, but this year our depth is very thin with young players like Woewodin who are still unknown at senior level. We've been very lucky that the likes of Petracca, Viney and Brayshaw have been playing consistently each week for the past 2 years, but they're also getting older as well so the hits and knocks will probably get to them at some stage next year. 

The way I see it is that next year will be a year where we'll take a step back purely because I think we'll focus on getting some games into kids such as Howes, Turner, Adams, Woewodin, Laurie, Windsor, Tholstrup, AMW and even Will Varrell with the hope that we can then catapult again with a rejuvenated list for the next few years. 

I would be okay with this if it means it gives us the opportunity to extend our premiership window for the next few years.

I think this is logical, especially given the profile of our list, given JVR is still so young, as is Petty and the entire core still has 6-7 years left a mini re-set could allow us to push for more flags, continuing the same course would likely see us consistent contenders, and maybe we'd pinch another flag, but we'd need a lot of luck. 

My concern with this, is the risk it carries is that if Gawn or May suffers a significant long term injury, we're in a lot of trouble, we'll be relying on trade/free agency and a very aggressive pursuit of an opposition star

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2 hours ago, dazzledavey36 said:

...I think we'll focus on getting some games into kids such as Howes, Turner, Adams, Woewodin, Laurie, Windsor, Tholstrup, AMW and even Will Varrell with the hope that we can then catapult again with a rejuvenated list for the next few years. 

But why would we do this?  We have to pick our best side and go all in for a premiership while Gawn and May are still at their peak

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23 minutes ago, greenwaves said:

But why would we do this?  We have to pick our best side and go all in for a premiership while Gawn and May are still at their peak

Because if we don't do this and start exposing some of our more promising kids then we'll fall completely off the cliff once the likes of May and Gawn retire.

Introducing the kids alongside May and Gawn will only benefit their development. 

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32 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Because if we don't do this and start exposing some of our more promising kids then we'll fall completely off the cliff once the likes of May and Gawn retire.

Introducing the kids alongside May and Gawn will only benefit their development. 

Yes it will benefit their development but it means we won't win the premiership next year

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1 hour ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Need to take one step back to then take two steps forward.

So if we took two steps back, one in 2022 and 2023 where does that leave us??

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2 hours ago, greenwaves said:

But why would we do this?  We have to pick our best side and go all in for a premiership while Gawn and May are still at their peak

Because when you don’t you end up falling off a massive cliff like West Coast and similar to the Dees when we didn’t turn the list over in Danners latter years

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1 hour ago, greenwaves said:

Yes it will benefit their development but it means we won't win the premiership next year

It doesn’t have to mean that at all, a few fresh faces can rejuvenate the list very quickly 

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