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NON-MFC: Rd 15 2023


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Just now, Demonland said:

Not in Melbourne.

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Can’t argue with that at all, I was just looking back through the games, all be it at home bad kicking cost them victory last time they met. Will be a cracking game to watch. Crows have some gun fwds and mids, not sure how their defence will hold up though.

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I don't that top 2 is a realistic hope for the Dees. Lions are certain to finish top 4 by reason of their likely home wins.

Accordingly, I prefer that teams pushing for 4th place on the ladder lose ... read St Kilda!! 

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Oh, wow. Color me shocked.

Lions look so much more energised this week. So much more run.

It's like they are a completely different team to the listless lions that limped to loss against the hawks.

Just an off game last week I guess.

Glad I backed them

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1 minute ago, binman said:

Oh, wow. Color me shocked.

Lions look so much more energised this week. So much more run.

It's like they are a completely different team to the listless lions that limped to loss against the hawks.

Just an off game last week I guess.

Glad I backed them

So based on your theory you can get some serious value next week on Essendon beating Port, Hawthorn beating Carlton and Fremantle beating Dogs. All underdogs. Multi paying $18.

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1 hour ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

So based on your theory you can get some serious value next week on Essendon beating Port, Hawthorn beating Carlton and Fremantle beating Dogs. All underdogs. Multi paying $18.

That's not my theory behind backing the lions. 

I knew the lions would be running over the ground in their third game after their bye.

The lions are a much better side than the sainsts (who, by the by, had their bye three weeks ago so should also not be fatgued).

And the docklands doesn't expose their lack of pace like the G.

The lions should have been shorter odds in my opinion - and the main reason they weren't is their post bye performance against the hawks

I rarely back the win, almost always the line, and my assessment was minus five points line @ 1.90 represented excellent value.

Similarly, the minus five points line @ 1.90 for freo tommorow night against the bombers also represents excellent value - because they were so poor against the giants due to fatigue.

In fact it is probably even better value than the lions bet - freo are playing their second post match ground (and like the lions will be running on top of the ground) and the bombers are coming off their bye.

Edited by binman
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8 minutes ago, binman said:

That's not my theory behind backing the lions. 

I knew the lions would be running over the ground in their second game after their bye.

The lions are a much better side than the sainsts (who, by the by, had their bye three weeks ago so should also not be fatgued).

And the docklands doesn't expose their lack of pace like the G.

The lions should have been shorter odds in my opinion - and the main reason they weren't is their post bye performance against the hawks

I rarely back the win, almost always the line, and my assessment was minus five points line @ 1.90 represented excellent value.

Similarly, the minus five points line @ 1.90 for freo tommorow night against the bombers also represents excellent value.

In fact it is probaly even better value than the lions bet - freo are playing their second post match ground (and like the lions will be running on top of the ground) and the bombers are coming off their bye.

I thought you were intimating the struggles post bye. Every “fresh” club has lost thus far, including Brisbane’s loss to Hawthorn.

Those 3 games I mentioned for next week, I’m sure at least one or two outsiders will salute based on the post bye theory.

Edited by Bring-Back-Powell
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12 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

I thought you were intimating the struggles post bye. Every “fresh” club has lost thus far, including Brisbane’s loss to Hawthorn.

Those 3 games I mentioned for next week, I’m sure at least one or two outsiders will salute based on the post bye theory.

No you're right, all are good value because of the post bye factor.

But what I'm saying is many punters will have marked the lions down because they were poor against the hawks.

But got the symptoms right, but the diagnosis of the problem wrong - the key factor in their loss was fatgue. Same for freo.

A good recipie for value.

Edited by binman
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Scoring has really started to dry up as clubs have gone to work on one-another’s game plan and strategies. 

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