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binman Legend

binman   38,838

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, gs77 said:

Andy bring back the ladder predictor! 

For the love of god (the deity, not the much loved rock band from Geelong, or the much loved ex Geelong player for that matter) please don't encourage Andy to go anywhere near a ladder predictor. 

Andy is flying across to Perth to watch us. I fear that if we lose, by the time he touches down back at Tulla he will have done every possible combination and somehow landed on us missing the finals as the most likely outcome. 

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binman Legend

binman   38,838

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Posted
9 minutes ago, D4Life said:

Money coming in for Demons this weekend, Binman on the money!

 

Few Dockers injuries maybe having some influence!

This post is funny coincidence. As you posted, i was just writing this on another thread:

I was pretty confident our odds would drift a bit (from the 1.86 available yesterday), at least into even money (which is how we opened for this game), particularly after the news BB was still out. 

But i just checked then, and we have actually come in and are now into $1.80 to win.

Which, given we are only two days out from the game (and therefore the pool is pretty big and somewhat immune from big price swings) suggests the pros considered the 1.90 opening quote and the 1.86 available yesterday were both overs, and have invested accordingly, forcing the price down.

We still might drift a touch, and maybe even back to even money, but only if the pros think the 2.05 you can currently get for Freo is overs. 

Given we are playing this game on their home deck, and their form over the last few weeks is at least on par with ours, 1.80 favoritism suggest the market is pretty bullish about our chances.

(nb: as i noted in another thread, odds are just  an expression of probability. So of course the fact we are favorite for the game doesn't mean we win, or if we do the bookies have got it wrong. At 1.80 favorites, if we play this game 10 times we win aprox 5.5 times and LOSE 4.5 times. Even money is 50 50)

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D4Life Redleg

D4Life   2,307

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, binman said:

This post is funny coincidence. As you posted, i was just writing this on another thread:

I was pretty confident our odds would drift a bit (from the 1.86 available yesterday), at least into even money (which is how we opened for this game), particularly after the news BB was still out. 

But i just checked then, and we have actually come in and are now into $1.80 to win.

Which, given we are only two days out from the game (and therefore the pool is pretty big and somewhat immune from big price swings) suggests the pros considered the 1.90 opening quote and the 1.86 available yesterday were both overs, and have invested accordingly, forcing the price down.

We still might drift a touch, and maybe even back to even money, but only if the pros think the 2.05 you can currently get for Freo is overs. 

Given we are playing this game on their home deck, and their form over the last few weeks is at least on par with ours, 1.80 favoritism suggest the market is pretty bullish about our chances.

(nb: as i noted in another thread, odds are just  an expression of probability. So of course the fact we are favorite for the game doesn't mean we win, or if we do the bookies have got it wrong. At 1.80 favorites, if we play this game 10 times we win aprox 5.5 times and LOSE 4.5 times. Even money is 50 50)

I’m in your camp on glass half full, loading, and that team defence and run leads to forward line functioning better and us winning.

While many on Demonland worried about Gus on SEN, the comment I really liked was about being ruthless.

I think it was Luke Hodge said after a flag, the following home & away season is a bit ho hum after all the excitement of finals and a flag.

Demons finishing loading and recognising that they are lacking that ruthless commitment for four quarters can hopefully turn it around from this week onwards.

We learned last year we do play finals football,  come September it’s up to the others to match us!

I will be amazed if the Geelong midfield setup can hold the Demons come a final in September, MCG is very different to Kittycat Park!

looking forward to a win on Friday night and the start of our run toward another flag! 

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