The 'Afterpay' Kings

[Mr Steve 3,820]

We have done this so well the last few years. 

The 'Afterpay' kings: How Demons have mastered future pick tradin

[Spaghetti 264]

Clearly it has worked for us, but does anyone else think this whole "strategy" is being played up a bit in the media? 

Surely 95% of the success is attributed to who we pick and how well they adapt to the training and development system we have as opposed to any nebulous impact of "clustering" players to come through together. 

If we never traded any picks, there would still be a "cluster" coming through together each year.

 

[adonski 12,109]

5 minutes ago, Spaghetti said:

Clearly it has worked for us, but does anyone else think this whole "strategy" is being played up a bit in the media? 

Surely 95% of the success is attributed to who we pick and how well they adapt to the training and development system we have as opposed to any nebulous impact of "clustering" players to come through together. 

If we never traded any picks, there would still be a "cluster" coming through together each year.

 

A little bit.

But we wouldn't of have Pickett, Rivers & Bowey out there on grandfinal day if we weren't prepared to do these things.

[Jibroni 5,003]

Only really works if you nail your later picks which fortunately JT has been able to do.

[Wrecker46 2,973]

Buy now pay later. I don't care I've seen a premiership.

[deelusions from afar 1,810]

I think a key point is that we get a year of development into them - and this means so much more now that we are a successful team, with excellent development coaches and culture - arguably the best in the league. 

E.g. Bailey Laurie who hasn't played senior footy - but is in the system, has had work through rehab and has seen up close what it takes to make it into a successful side and for that side to win a premiership. 

Although its been an interrupted season due to covid and injuries, he is a long way ahead of the player that Brisbane will pick from this year's draft.

[Turner 1,514]

wouldn't be surprised to see other clubs try and do this now, which is a shame coz itll make it harder for us but luckily there will always be F/S and NGA players i guess to force clubs out of the first round, just gotta make sure we're front of the queue with the best offer to improve our hand

[illbarto 379]

I think importantly, without knowing the ins and outs of the trades is that we appear to be a club that is easy to deal with and that our trades and pick swaps appear to be beneficial to both parties. Perhaps this is something that allows us to continue this method? I wouldn't have thought the same thing could be said about Fremantle or to a lesser extent Collingwood?

[Clayton van Oliver 1,823]

Josh Mahoney's fingerprints all over this strategy, along with Lamb and the rest of the crew. Credit where it is due

[rpfc 28,407]

Good article. It was savvy to bundle picks forward and get the blokes coming through as mates and maturing together. 

Salem, Petracca, Brayshaw and Oliver is the OG of that strategy. They will be one club champions that should be in multiple flags.

And of course the Jackson Pickett Rivers combo is another masterpiece.

It all hinges on good drafting and decent development though and crucially with top picks. I keep hearing the refrain - ‘the best recruiters are seen in the 3rd and 4th rounds!’

No they’re not. The best ones don’t waste the highest of investments. And Taylor has only one blemish in his time here; Salem, Petracca, Brayshaw, Oliver, Jackson, and Pickett make up 5 of the most impactful 7 players on GF day. With only Viney and Fritsch to round it out.

That drafting is why we won the flag.

[Queanbeyan Demon 6,843]

Typical of AFL journalism . . . Melbourne's strategy is nothing like Afterpay.

[Turner 1,514]

2 hours ago, rpfc said:

Good article. It was savvy to bundle picks forward and get the blokes coming through as mates and maturing together. 

Salem, Petracca, Brayshaw and Oliver is the OG of that strategy. They will be one club champions that should be in multiple flags.

And of course the Jackson Pickett Rivers combo is another masterpiece.

It all hinges on good drafting and decent development though and crucially with top picks. I keep hearing the refrain - ‘the best recruiters are seen in the 3rd and 4th rounds!’

No they’re not. The best ones don’t waste the highest of investments. And Taylor has only one blemish in his time here; Salem, Petracca, Brayshaw, Oliver, Jackson, and Pickett make up 5 of the most impactful 7 players on GF day. With only Viney and Fritsch to round it out.

That drafting is why we won the flag.

who's the blemish?

[Clayton van Oliver 1,823]

1 minute ago, Turner said:

who's the blemish?

Dom?

[rpfc 28,407]

32 minutes ago, Turner said:

who's the blemish?

Weideman 

[Skuit 10,031]

Thought I’d do a spot of analysis on what our ‘Afterpay’ strategy has cost us to date in terms of interest, as our ‘get-em’-in-now-and-develop-them’ philosophy necessitates that any club we trade in future markets with knowingly sacrifices that opportunity – logically requiring sweeteners to get these deals done. There is an element of gambling on finishing positions, but I’ll try to be as straightforward in my analysis as possible, and attempt to go light on the players actually selected at these picks – although some have undoubtedly been targeted.

2015

In the first year of future-round trading, we traded out pick 6 and 29 plus a future first-rounder to Gold Coast for picks 3 (Oliver), 10 and 43 in return. That future first ended up as pick 9 (Will Brodie). According to the draft points system, we actually came out on top by about 150 points, to the equivalent of pick 62. I can’t recall GC’s exact circumstances at the time, but it seems similar to this year, some sort of list management issue to spread their squad. We finished 11th in 2016, which was about expected, so I don’t think it was a matter of gambling on our failure.

Notes: GC ended up taking Callum Ah Chee at 6 in 2015, and didn’t have another selection until 20, and then 34. The year after they took four players in the top ten. We, meanwhile, in a very busy 2015 trade period, cut another deal oddly in our favour with GWS – maybe due to similar circumstances – swapping pick s10, 43, and 64 for Bugg (whatever you think of him) and pick 7, which got us Weids (whatever you think of him). Our first move up was obviously to secure Oliver, and the second move likely had Weideman in mind too.

2019

While in the intervening years (Hannan, at 46, was our first pick in 2016!), we spent our first-round draft cookies on Lever and May (and how glorious a plan that turned out to be), in 2019 we returned to our now-first philosophy (taking advantage of our [censored] year, as stated by Lamb and Taylor, to bring in groupings of elite young talent to grow together – an approach possibly designed but definitely now echoed by Mahoney at Essendon). It should be noted though, that even in 2018 we selected the underager James Jordon, with the notion of an extra year of development.

Futures start to get especially messy in 2019, with second- and third-rounders bouncing between multiple clubs, but I will try to focus on the specifics of the first round. We traded picks 26, 50, and our future first to North in exchange for pick 8. Our first-rounder had a post-slide value of 13 (spent on some guy named Tom Powell), adding up to a loss of close to 670 points, or around pick 29. We split that 8 again when we thought we could get Koz cheaper, and basically gained Rivers for ‘free’.

2020

Back at it again. But the crazy series of moves to ultimately land us Bowie and Laurie in consecutive picks 21 and 22 makes it seriously difficult to prise the value apart. First up, pick 43 and Brisbane’s fourth-rounder for MFC pick 53 and a third-rounder (and from here I struggle to follow the trail). Ultimately though, we swap 25, 68 and 69 plus a first with the same club for picks 18 and 19 and a second. That first will be pick 18 before sliding, as we’re the now the AFL champions of the universe. I roughly calculate the loss of points to be the equivalent of pick 29.

2021

More swapsies to get into the first round, and half way through trade week we are still looking to maybe elevate again if the option presents, according to Tim Lamb’s interview with SEN (and I love how he follows in the real straight-up tradition of Mahoney). At this stage we traded out a bunch of picks for some others in return – 33, 45, and a future first for 17, 37, and 49. Let’s put a generous pick 12 floor on the future first, as we are the now the 'AFL champions of the universe' but I’m feeling somewhat magnanimous, and it’s another loss of around 400 points – or the equivalent of pick 43.

Conclusion

It’s highly likely that some of my inputs are wrong, but on a basic level it looks like we’ve traded ahead at the cost of two picks at 29 and one at 43, with a 62 coming back our way. While a highly dodgy measure, on draft value that deficit adds up to around pick 8. More immediate is the knowledge that Taylor has nailed so many picks in that 30 to 45 range. The answer is pretty clear as to the worth of the strategy – as we just won the flag – but we maybe have given up another ‘Fritsch and Spargo’ on the list to get ahead of the game. Will it come back to bite us? Who cares really, but most probably no. 

 

 

 

 

 

[adonski 12,109]

13 minutes ago, Skuit said:

Thought I’d do a spot of analysis on what our ‘Afterpay’ strategy has cost us to date in terms of interest, as our ‘get-em’-in-now-and-develop-them’ philosophy necessitates that any club we trade in future markets with knowingly sacrifices that opportunity – logically requiring sweeteners to get these deals done. There is an element of gambling on finishing positions, but I’ll try to be as straightforward in my analysis as possible, and attempt to go light on the players actually selected at these picks – although some have undoubtedly been targeted.

2015

In the first year of future-round trading, we traded out pick 6 and 29 plus a future first-rounder to Gold Coast for picks 3 (Oliver), 10 and 43 in return. That future first ended up as pick 9 (Will Brodie). According to the draft points system, we actually came out on top by about 150 points, to the equivalent of pick 62. I can’t recall GC’s exact circumstances at the time, but it seems similar to this year, some sort of list management issue to spread their squad. We finished 11th in 2016, which was about expected, so I don’t think it was a matter of gambling on our failure.

Notes: GC ended up taking Callum Ah Chee at 6 in 2015, and didn’t have another selection until 20, and then 34. The year after they took four players in the top ten. We, meanwhile, in a very busy 2015 trade period, cut another deal oddly in our favour with GWS – maybe due to similar circumstances – swapping pick s10, 43, and 64 for Bugg (whatever you think of him) and pick 7, which got us Weids (whatever you think of him). Our first move up was obviously to secure Oliver, and the second move likely had Weideman in mind too.

2019

While in the intervening years (Hannan, at 46, was our first pick in 2016!), we spent our first-round draft cookies on Lever and May (and how glorious a plan that turned out to be), in 2019 we returned to our now-first philosophy (taking advantage of our [censored] year, as stated by Lamb and Taylor, to bring in groupings of elite young talent to grow together – an approach possibly designed but definitely now echoed by Mahoney at Essendon). It should be noted though, that even in 2018 we selected the underager James Jordon, with the notion of an extra year of development.

Futures start to get especially messy in 2019, with second- and third-rounders bouncing between multiple clubs, but I will try to focus on the specifics of the first round. We traded picks 26, 50, and our future first to North in exchange for pick 8. Our first-rounder had a post-slide value of 13 (spent on some guy named Tom Powell), adding up to a loss of close to 670 points, or around pick 29. We split that 8 again when we thought we could get Koz cheaper, and basically gained Rivers for ‘free’.

2020

Back at it again. But the crazy series of moves to ultimately land us Bowie and Laurie in consecutive picks 21 and 22 makes it seriously difficult to prise the value apart. First up, pick 43 and Brisbane’s fourth-rounder for MFC pick 53 and a third-rounder (and from here I struggle to follow the trail). Ultimately though, we swap 25, 68 and 69 plus a first with the same club for picks 18 and 19 and a second. That first will be pick 18 before sliding, as we’re the now the AFL champions of the universe. I roughly calculate the loss of points to be the equivalent of pick 29.

2021

More swapsies to get into the first round, and half way through trade week we are still looking to maybe elevate again if the option presents, according to Tim Lamb’s interview with SEN (and I love how he follows in the real straight-up tradition of Mahoney). At this stage we traded out a bunch of picks for some others in return – 33, 45, and a future first for 17, 37, and 49. Let’s put a generous pick 12 floor on the future first, as we are the now the 'AFL champions of the universe' but I’m feeling somewhat magnanimous, and it’s another loss of around 400 points – or the equivalent of pick 43.

Conclusion

It’s highly likely that some of my inputs are wrong, but on a basic level it looks like we’ve traded ahead at the cost of two picks at 29 and one at 43, with a 62 coming back our way. While a highly dodgy measure, on draft value that deficit adds up to around pick 8. More immediate is the knowledge that Taylor has nailed so many picks in that 30 to 45 range. The answer is pretty clear as to the worth of the strategy – as we just won the flag – but we maybe have given up another ‘Fritsch and Spargo’ on the list to get ahead of the game. Will it come back to bite us? Who cares really, but most probably no. 

 

 

 

 

 

We won from the Brisbane trade -

Recieve:

2020: Picks 18, 19 (1933 points, equivalent of pick 5)
2021: 33 (563 points)

Total: 2496 (equivalent of pick 3)

Give-up:

2020: Pick 25, 68, 69
2021: Pick 18

Total: 1849 (equivalent of pick 6) 

We gain points equivalent of pick 29, not lose 

[Skuit 10,031]

25 minutes ago, adonski said:

We won from the Brisbane trade -

Recieve:

2020: Picks 18, 19 (1933 points, equivalent of pick 5)
2021: 33 (563 points)

Total: 2496 (equivalent of pick 3)

Give-up:

2020: Pick 25, 68, 69
2021: Pick 18

Total: 1849 (equivalent of pick 6) 

We gain points equivalent of pick 29, not lose 

You're probably right - and I just got it straight up backwards. The sentiment remains though: we've paid a lot less in capital than what might be expected to trade in to current first rounds. 

[3183 Dee 2,853]

6 hours ago, deelusions from afar said:

I think a key point is that we get a year of development into them - and this means so much more now that we are a successful team, with excellent development coaches and culture - arguably the best in the league. 

E.g. Bailey Laurie who hasn't played senior footy - but is in the system, has had work through rehab and has seen up close what it takes to make it into a successful side and for that side to win a premiership. 

Although its been an interrupted season due to covid and injuries, he is a long way ahead of the player that Brisbane will pick from this year's draft.

You’re dead right - the recruitment has happened at the same time as the culture has changed on and off the field, which has led eventually to the flag. Every aspect of the club, it seems, is being run in the right way, which leads to harmonious outcomes. It’s been a long build, but hopefully one that will now breed sustained success.

The fact that all these draftees, no matter if a defender, midfielder or forward, are able to learn their craft from (now) elite players is something we haven’t had at our club for many, many years. Imagine if the likes of Watts, Trengrove, Garland etc had the same opportunity…

[BAMF 4,351]

7 hours ago, Turner said:

wouldn't be surprised to see other clubs try and do this now, which is a shame coz itll make it harder for us but luckily there will always be F/S and NGA players i guess to force clubs out of the first round, just gotta make sure we're front of the queue with the best offer to improve our hand

Even if other clubs do they same thing we win. At some point (possibly the next few years) we will get to the point that we will avoid the draft. 

Hopefully other teams adopt out strategies and are eager to give up future firsts. We oblige them and reverse the formula. We take 2 first rounders but delay it a year.

Hopefully we have got a few more flags to our name by this point. We may be able to top up with free agents or trade 2nd round picks for role players during the years we forgo a first rounder.