Farewell Luke Jackson

[layzie 33,793]

I don't want to call it the go home or mummy factor but I do think since Covid espeically there is a 'life is short' or 'being grateful for what you have' factor. Being closer to family would be a higher priority. I don't want to attack anyone for feeling this way, it may be different but the world has changed. 

[Gawndy the Great 9,011]

7 hours ago, Surfer Dee said:

Anyone familiar with the NHL? I believe the salary cap and trading setup is what the AFL needs to emulate.

A third year player like Jackson, out of contract, would be a restricted free agent. If freo offer him a big contract we have option to match it. If he walks, we get compensated based on the contract.

If he were contracted and the team he wanted to get to doesn't have the ability to satisfy the controlling team in a trade, then bad luck, you can go somewhere else or stay.

Also, the AFL needs to remove the PSD. Why does this even exist? If a team cannot be satisfied by the destination club, the player should return to original club under a standard one year contract. If this were the situation, Freo would have to offer something reasonable. Currently they have no incentive to pay market value for LJ.

It’s absolutely ludicrous that the RFA rules don’t apply. We should be able to match the Freo offer - maybe we can? I wonder what we would get in that scenario. 

[Lucifers Hero 39,732]

To elaborate on why I think Freo won't make the 8 next year:

Their major list changes:

Out:

• Logue:  20 games in 2022
• Tucker:  14 games in 2022
• Acres:  20 games in 2022
• Mundy:  22 games in 2022
• Lobb (probably):  21 games in 2022
• Meek (probably):  8 games in 2022

In:

• Jackson:  22 games in 2022
• Corbett: 4 games in 2022
• Sharp (probably):  12 games in 2022

They may have others coming in but they are unlikely to overcome my doubts:

• They are losing a lot of experience from their best year in eons and not a lot of experience back in.  It will take them a while to assimilate new players and fill the gaps by those going out.
• Synergy and consistency are big factors in winning games and I reckon it will take them a long time to get that next year and to settle in new players.  By which time their chances of the 8 may have slipped. 
•  I expect Port and Carlton to make the 8 next year and I see Freo and Bulldogs as the most vulnerable to fall out.
• They will have a harder draw.

So I'm happy to take Freo's future pics.

Edited October 9, 2022 by Lucifers Hero

[layzie 33,793]

2 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

To elaborate on why I think Freo won't make the 8 next year:

Their major list changes:

Out:

• Logue:  20 games in 2022
• Tucker:  14 games in 2022
• Acres:  20 games in 2022
• Mundy:  22 games in 2022
• Lobb (probably):  21 games in 2022
• Meek (probably):  8 games in 2022

In:

• Jackson:  22 games in 2022
• Corbett: 4 games in 2022
• Sharp (probably):  12 games in 2022

They may have others coming they are unlikely to overcome my doubts:

• They are losing a lot of experience from their best year in eons and not a lot of experience back in.  It will take them a while to assimilate new players and fill the gaps by those going out.
• Synergy and consistency are big factors in winning games and I reckon it will take them a long time to get that next year and to settle in new players.  By which time their chances of the 8 may have slipped. 
•  I expect Port and Carlton to make the 8 next year and I see Freo and Bulldogs as the most vulnerable to fall out.

So I'm happy to take Freo's future pics.

Cohesion was a massive part of their success this season. Going to take a little time to gel again for sure. 

[Bonkers 994]

16 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

To elaborate on why I think Freo won't make the 8 next year:

Their major list changes:

Out:

• Logue:  20 games in 2022
• Tucker:  14 games in 2022
• Acres:  20 games in 2022
• Mundy:  22 games in 2022
• Lobb (probably):  21 games in 2022
• Meek (probably):  8 games in 2022

In:

• Jackson:  22 games in 2022
• Corbett: 4 games in 2022
• Sharp (probably):  12 games in 2022

They may have others coming they are unlikely to overcome my doubts:

• They are losing a lot of experience from their best year in eons and not a lot of experience back in.  It will take them a while to assimilate new players and fill the gaps by those going out.
• Synergy and consistency are big factors in winning games and I reckon it will take them a long time to get that next year and to settle in new players.  By which time their chances of the 8 may have slipped. 
•  I expect Port and Carlton to make the 8 next year and I see Freo and Bulldogs as the most vulnerable to fall out.

So I'm happy to take Freo's future pics.

I don’t think it’s likely that we will hold onto their picks. Going by previous trade periods I assume we will likely trade out what we get to move up further into this years first round. 

[drdrake 3,163]

Be nice to throw 13 and Bedford at GWS for pick 3.  Add in the future second rd from North swap with GWS future second.

[DistrACTION Jackson 8,712]

5 minutes ago, drdrake said:

Be nice to throw 13 and Bedford at GWS for pick 3.  Add in the future second rd from North swap with GWS future second.

No chance they would do that.

[Lord Nev 13,512]

6 minutes ago, drdrake said:

Be nice to throw 13 and Bedford at GWS for pick 3.  Add in the future second rd from North swap with GWS future second.

Depending on the pick swap, that would make Bedford woth around pick 18 points wise. 0 chance.

[Demonland 72,133]

 

[layzie 33,793]

Might just be onto something Coons

[IRW 1,387]

1 hour ago, CYB said:

It’s absolutely ludicrous that the RFA rules don’t apply. We should be able to match the Freo offer - maybe we can? I wonder what we would get in that scenario. 

Maybe we( secretly) don't want to anyway..like WC

[Mel Bourne 4,515]

1 hour ago, layzie said:

I don't want to call it the go home or mummy factor but I do think since Covid espeically there is a 'life is short' or 'being grateful for what you have' factor. Being closer to family would be a higher priority. I don't want to attack anyone for feeling this way, it may be different but the world has changed. 

I don't think the term "go-home factor" is necessarily derogative, and can pretty easily accommodate what you've described here,

[Mel Bourne 4,515]

2 hours ago, BDA said:

We'll get a good player with 13. 

I think Freo will regress nest year so their F1 will be a good pick as well

In Jason Taylor I trust

 

Based on what? A vibe?

Freo are looking a cert for finals next year, and this future first of theirs has not exactly gotten me all that excited.

[drdrake 3,163]

15 minutes ago, Lord Nev said:

Depending on the pick swap, that would make Bedford woth around pick 18 points wise. 0 chance.

I know just nice to dream that we could turn the Jackson trade into a top 5 pick this year. Plus a future 1st, maybe we get a future 3rd back instead of their future second.

It might depend on where we see Brown fall as a FS next year.  

[layzie 33,793]

4 minutes ago, Mel Bourne said:

I don't think the term "go-home factor" is necessarily derogative, and can pretty easily accommodate what you've described here,

Of course. However there have been a lot of mummy's boy comments and talk of 'men not being what they used to be' around here lately. 

[Gawndy the Great 9,011]

3 minutes ago, Mel Bourne said:

I don't think the term "go-home factor" is necessarily derogative, and can pretty easily accommodate what you've described here,

I’m not in the know but if anyone in his direct family has stumbled   into some health challenges, then it does make sense.

I can also understand just wanting to live in the place you grew up in. I have lived in 3 places all within 2km of each other since i can remember - close to 40 years and turned back multiple opportunities to work interstate or abroad. Also live close to my parents. So can’t really fault LJ for wanting to do the same.

[Lord Nev 13,512]

4 minutes ago, drdrake said:

I know just nice to dream that we could turn the Jackson trade into a top 5 pick this year. Plus a future 1st, maybe we get a future 3rd back instead of their future second.

It might depend on where we see Brown fall as a FS next year.  

I hear ya. I think most of us feel underwhelmed thus far, but reckon we've gotta just hold off and see how our list looks after the trade and draft periods.

[Lord Nev 13,512]

1 hour ago, Lucifers Hero said:

To elaborate on why I think Freo won't make the 8 next year:

Their major list changes:

Out:

• Logue:  20 games in 2022
• Tucker:  14 games in 2022
• Acres:  20 games in 2022
• Mundy:  22 games in 2022
• Lobb (probably):  21 games in 2022
• Meek (probably):  8 games in 2022

In:

• Jackson:  22 games in 2022
• Corbett: 4 games in 2022
• Sharp (probably):  12 games in 2022

They may have others coming in but they are unlikely to overcome my doubts:

• They are losing a lot of experience from their best year in eons and not a lot of experience back in.  It will take them a while to assimilate new players and fill the gaps by those going out.
• Synergy and consistency are big factors in winning games and I reckon it will take them a long time to get that next year and to settle in new players.  By which time their chances of the 8 may have slipped. 
•  I expect Port and Carlton to make the 8 next year and I see Freo and Bulldogs as the most vulnerable to fall out.
• They will have a harder draw.

So I'm happy to take Freo's future pics.

Love this mate! Great reasoning and analysis.

For mine, their rise and fall might depend on replacing Logue and Lobb. They're the only truly important players out of the ones they'll lose IMO. I actually think they're better off without Acres tbh.

I reckon if Taberner stays fit then the combo of Jackson and him more than covers Lobb.

Logue is harder to replace though.

I'm not as convinced as others on their demise just yet, they have some absolute guns in the midfield, and their core talent of Brayshaw, Young, Serong and Darcy are still a year or two off their prime and will only get better.

[whatwhat say what 22,735]

i am more HOPING that freo regress than expecting them to do so

mundy was their #3 mid behind andy brayshaw and serong last season and will be a bit of a loss

while fyfe is likely to come back in for them in 2023, they definitely had a pretty decent run when it came to injury in 2022

[hardtack 10,537]

18 minutes ago, layzie said:

Of course. However there have been a lot of mummy's boy comments and talk of 'men not being what they used to be' around here lately. 

I’d say most of those posting such comments are most likely ‘projecting’.

[Lord Nev 13,512]

1 minute ago, whatwhat say what said:

i am more HOPING that freo regress than expecting them to do so

mundy was their #3 mid behind andy brayshaw and serong last season and will be a bit of a loss

while fyfe is likely to come back in for them in 2023, they definitely had a pretty decent run when it came to injury in 2022

Mundy wasn't in their top 10 at the BnF though.

 

[mmwd6 220]

9 minutes ago, Lord Nev said:

Love this mate! Great reasoning and analysis.

For mine, their rise and fall might depend on replacing Logue and Lobb. They're the only truly important players out of the ones they'll lose IMO. I actually think they're better off without Acres tbh.

I reckon if Taberner stays fit then the combo of Jackson and him more than covers Lobb.

Logue is harder to replace though.

I'm not as convinced as others on their demise just yet, they have some absolute guns in the midfield, and their core talent of Brayshaw, Young, Serong and Darcy are still a year or two off their prime and will only get better.

In terms of personnel I don't think anyone except lobb leaving will have a big impact. They trade him and I cannot see anyway in which they finish top 8. Acres is replaceable and Logue was playing up fwd in a role that I think can be easily covered.

I just think their game plan was figured out on the second half of the season and that's gonna be where they fall down the ladder. 

Edited October 9, 2022 by mmwd6

[mmwd6 220]

2 minutes ago, Lord Nev said:

Mundy wasn't in their top 10 at the BnF though.

 

Was still probably 1 or 2 for clearances though. Unless fyfe returns back to form (doubt it) then they're replacing 370 games with a teenager 

[Lord Nev 13,512]

2 minutes ago, mmwd6 said:

In terms of personnel I don't think anyone except lobb leaving will have a big impact. Acres is replaceable and Logue was playing up fwd in a role that I think can be easily covered.

I just think their game plan was figured out on the second half of the season and that's gonna be where they fall down the ladder. 

Yeah that's fair. I think Logue has been a bit underrated around the traps though. I didn't pay a huge amount of attention to their game plan tbh, but gut feel was it got a bit stale as the year went on so you're probably on the ball there. Longmuir seemed to get a lot of love from the media during the year, next year is a big test for him.

[mmwd6 220]

1 minute ago, Lord Nev said:

Yeah that's fair. I think Logue has been a bit underrated around the traps though. I didn't pay a huge amount of attention to their game plan tbh, but gut feel was it got a bit stale as the year went on so you're probably on the ball there. Longmuir seemed to get a lot of love from the media during the year, next year is a big test for him.

Logue was really good in that first game against us, but from what I saw in the finals he was pretty useless. They had a second gamer come in after missing the entire year with a kidney laceration and even he outplayed Logue. 

Edited October 9, 2022 by mmwd6