CHANGES: Rd 11 vs Western Bulldogs

[binman 43,129]

41 minutes ago, A F said:

Agreed, but I'd be bringing Lockhart in for Nev if Salem is still a week away.

Has to be bowey. If fit enough

I can only assume they didn't think bowey was ready after his injury break. Otherwsie, surely he was the logical replacement for Salem

Assuming that to be the case i understand, sort of, why they went with Nev's, becuase he is experience and is pretty accurate and reliable kick, which with Hunt and Rivers is important as both are hit and miss coming out of defence. But unfortunate Jetts look a liability when dragged out of the back 50 and is not a ditibutor like Salem. So not a like for like.

I would have preferred them putting Jordon in Salem's position and bringing Captain Jack Sparrow in to play Vice Captain Jack's inside mid role. JJ is looking a bit weary and struggled to hit targets again playing an inside mid. Playing him at half back would not be as taxing, and if you look at his heat maps round 1 -8 that's essentially where he played.

He is an excellent kick, makes good decisions, is good defensively, is a good tackler and can get up the ground - all key elements of Salem's game.

And a fresh Captain Jack would have brought a ferocity and willingness to apply pressure we lacked. 

[Young Blood 2,631]

29 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

IMO Jetta has to be dropped even if Salem's not fit. I know the VFL is on a five-day turnaround but I just don't think we can take Jetta into this game on a fast deck at Marvel against the Dogs and come out alive.

The stats don't really back this up too much.

At AFL level this season Brown's averaging 5.3 pressure acts per game to Weideman's 6 (i.e. less than one pressure act per game the difference), but importantly Weideman's averaging 3.5 defensive half pressure acts per game to Brown's 1. That's important because it shows Weideman is playing a different role to Brown and getting more ball up the ground away from the forward line. Taking the defensive half pressure acts out, Brown's averaging 4.3 forward half pressure acts per game to Weideman's 2.5 (just under 2 more per game).

Tackles is the same. Brown's only laid two tackles in three games but both in the forward 50. Weideman's laid 5 tackles but only 1 in the forward 50. Same with marks: Brown's averaging 3.3 marks per game to Weid's 4, but inside 50 Brown averages 2.3 to Weid's 1.

The way both have played this year, Brown offers us something different and IMO stronger in the forward half/50 than what Weideman offers.

Having said all that, it doesn't look like Brown played well in the VFL yesterday and I'm not a huge fan of players coming in without earning it (although to counter that counter argument, I don't think Brown should have been dropped in the first place).

This is awesome and you've highlighted the key areas coaches look for with any of our forwards tall or small. Where do you find these stats?

[JTR 2,846]

Possibly a Sandra Sully, but Treloar is a confirmed out.

I know some Dogs supporters who were hopeful he'd be ok to play, but he's out for a couple of months.

[Dr.D 1,771]

who is gonna match up on Weightman? The guy looks bloody good. I think Hibberd is just about the only guy that can take him.

[Pickett2Jackson 3,904]

3 minutes ago, JTR said:

Possibly a Sandra Sully, but Treloar is a confirmed out.

I know some Dogs supporters who were hopeful he'd be ok to play, but he's out for a couple of months.

Treloar is always injured.

Bad luck Doggies, you get what you pay for.  (or in this case what Collingwood pays for.)

Edited May 24, 2021 by Pickett2Jackson

[dazzledavey36 54,998]

4 minutes ago, Dr.D said:

who is gonna match up on Weightman? The guy looks bloody good. I think Hibberd is just about the only guy that can take him.

Rivers

[Willmoy1947 4,099]

Whether this has been said or not. Now is the time to start as many players as is feasible being given opportunities to go through our Senior Side and have as many as possible with the experience and stamina before the Finals.

[Dr.D 1,771]

9 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Rivers

I think he is more of a rebounding defender than being a strong 1 on 1 player.

[Lucifers Hero 39,965]

2 hours ago, adonski said:

Tom Brown reckons Salem has a groin issue & good chance to miss this week. Interesting after Goodwin confirmed he'd be back in his presser. One to watch.

More likely his info is from reading DL.

[Ted Lasso 19,521]

17 minutes ago, Dr.D said:

who is gonna match up on Weightman? The guy looks bloody good. I think Hibberd is just about the only guy that can take him.

I think it'll be Hibberd that gets the job. i don't know that we match up all that well on the dogs forwards generally so we will be relying on pressure up the field 

[dazzledavey36 54,998]

17 minutes ago, Dr.D said:

I think he is more of a rebounding defender than being a strong 1 on 1 player.

His size and strength is at an exceptional for his age. Holds his ground really well in marking contests.

Would easily outbody Weightman and has the speed to stay with him.

[Adam The God 30,274]

1 hour ago, binman said:

Has to be bowey. If fit enough

I can only assume they didn't think bowey was ready after his injury break. Otherwsie, surely he was the logical replacement for Salem

Assuming that to be the case i understand, sort of, why they went with Nev's, becuase he is experience and is pretty accurate and reliable kick, which with Hunt and Rivers is important as both are hit and miss coming out of defence. But unfortunate Jetts look a liability when dragged out of the back 50 and is not a ditibutor like Salem. So not a like for like.

I would have preferred them putting Jordon in Salem's position and bringing Captain Jack Sparrow in to play Vice Captain Jack's inside mid role. JJ is looking a bit weary and struggled to hit targets again playing an inside mid. Playing him at half back would not be as taxing, and if you look at his heat maps round 1 -8 that's essentially where he played.

He is an excellent kick, makes good decisions, is good defensively, is a good tackler and can get up the ground - all key elements of Salem's game.

And a fresh Captain Jack would have brought a ferocity and willingness to apply pressure we lacked. 

Agreed. My assumption was they want him to get more games in the MFC system before playing him in the big time.

I like your suggestions RE Sparrow and JJ too, although JJs tackling around the ball is the closest thing we've got to Viney.

[Lord Nev 13,512]

3 hours ago, A F said:

I reckon some mark him harshly. He isn't at the level that he can get to obviously, but he's playing the lockdown role to allow others to intercept. When his KPD mates in May and Lever struggled, particularly May, it brings more pressure on the back 6.

I don't think it's a case of Salem out, Melbourne defensively hopeless. I think we just had a poor night, where we gave Adelaide sniff, they were up for it, they'd clearly set themselves for the game (resting Walker the week before) and one of three umpiring decisions goes our way in the last 2 minutes and we're all having a different conversation on here.

May and Lever need to be better. In his young career, it's up to Petty to just play his role until he's confident enough to take on the intercept game a bit more. I reckon they'll be saying to Harry we need to have more composure coming out of the back 50 and just keep things simple. Use May's kicking and ideally Salem's to unlock that tricky kick in the middle. But at the end of the day, when we've turned it over by foot in the middle of the ground, usually our defensive shape prevents us giving up a score. Not to be on the weekend.

It's up to our leaders like Max, May, Lever and Petracca to step up. It'd be good to get Hunt in the game a bit more too. Already having Salem out hurt our rebound, but Hunt playing a shocker only compounded the problem. Next week we have to step up as a collective.

Agree mate. I'm not trying to put pressure on Petty, I think he's gonna be ok for us and I like the hardness he's developing. Just seems to get super nervous when kicking, but that will get better over time I reckon.

May had a Barry Crocker on Saturday, Lever was a bit up and down - he was clearly effected by the crowd. Gee we missed Salo a lot. Hunt would be one the blokes who wouldn't want another poor one this week, not by himself there.

It felt like the flat week that had been coming for a while. They'd teased it for a few games beforehand.

[Young Blood 2,631]

1 hour ago, Dr.D said:

who is gonna match up on Weightman? The guy looks bloody good. I think Hibberd is just about the only guy that can take him.

Yep bring the physicality. Make him feel every bump and tackle.

[Docs Demons 1,792]

14 minutes ago, Lord Nev said:

Agree mate. I'm not trying to put pressure on Petty, I think he's gonna be ok for us and I like the hardness he's developing. Just seems to get super nervous when kicking, but that will get better over time I reckon.

May had a Barry Crocker on Saturday, Lever was a bit up and down - he was clearly effected by the crowd. Gee we missed Salo a lot. Hunt would be one the blokes who wouldn't want another poor one this week, not by himself there.

It felt like the flat week that had been coming for a while. They'd teased it for a few games beforehand.

Concur Lord Nev. We looked a bit flat plus Crows played well and Umpires didn't assist (late any way) and we only lost by a point. So it's not all doom and gloom in my view. Other than Oliver no one else dominated so get 6-7 more fired up and we are still a chance Friday night. Have to be at our best.

[titan_uranus 25,020]

2 hours ago, Yung Blood said:

This is awesome and you've highlighted the key areas coaches look for with any of our forwards tall or small. Where do you find these stats?

https://www.afl.com.au/stats/stats-pro

They've released significantly more data to the general public this year, and it's largely available here. You can compare players and then see their season or career averages.

[All the Jacks 99]

Someone said Jones please no 

not in best at Casey 

hoping Salem and Sparrow out Jetta and Melksham 

[titan_uranus 25,020]

A lot people are arguing we should return to TMac, Jackson and four mids/smalls as we were running with up to the Richmond game, because our form has diminished since then.

I think there's a chicken-egg question with that. Has our form slid because we've inserted Brown/Weideman into the forward line? I'm not convinced, particularly because I think two other metrics have bugged us since Richmond: Viney's been out, reducing our midfield capability (both at clearances and defending on transition), and our forward half pressure game hasn't been at the same level (except for the Sydney game).

So I'm not sure that by dropping Weid and not bringing Brown back, we automatically start playing better. 

[Gator 17,383]

2 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

A lot people are arguing we should return to TMac, Jackson and four mids/smalls as we were running with up to the Richmond game, because our form has diminished since then.

I think there's a chicken-egg question with that. Has our form slid because we've inserted Brown/Weideman into the forward line? I'm not convinced, particularly because I think two other metrics have bugged us since Richmond: Viney's been out, reducing our midfield capability (both at clearances and defending on transition), and our forward half pressure game hasn't been at the same level (except for the Sydney game).

So I'm not sure that by dropping Weid and not bringing Brown back, we automatically start playing better. 

It's a conundrum.  We have looked better smaller, but I agree re Viney.

Also, the one weakness Footscray have is their tall key backs. 

[Ted Lasso 19,521]

1 minute ago, titan_uranus said:

A lot people are arguing we should return to TMac, Jackson and four mids/smalls as we were running with up to the Richmond game, because our form has diminished since then.

I think there's a chicken-egg question with that. Has our form slid because we've inserted Brown/Weideman into the forward line? I'm not convinced, particularly because I think two other metrics have bugged us since Richmond: Viney's been out, reducing our midfield capability (both at clearances and defending on transition), and our forward half pressure game hasn't been at the same level (except for the Sydney game).

So I'm not sure that by dropping Weid and not bringing Brown back, we automatically start playing better. 

I think it's definitely the latter, to my mind our absolute best 22 includes both Ben Brown and Jack Viney, we haven't been great in clearances all year, but we've fallen away significantly without Viney, not only because of his output, but the referred pressure. 

Depth is everything in the AFL, when Viney is in there it takes pressure off everyone. Harmes becomes the 4th mid, Jordan the 5th etc. 

I don't know what the right mix is forward of the ball, but i do know that, if the dogs have a weakness, it's against tall forwards, and we know Jackson and Tmac will play, so it's down to who Goodwin and co think is the better player as of right now of Weideman and Brown, as to who is going to be better suited to exposing that weakness. 

I also think the form of Max Gawn dropping away slightly has made a huge difference, we rely so heavily on Max still for his marking around the ground and it's been undeniable he's not quite at his best. 

[binman 43,129]

26 minutes ago, Lord Nev said:

Agree mate. I'm not trying to put pressure on Petty, I think he's gonna be ok for us and I like the hardness he's developing. Just seems to get super nervous when kicking, but that will get better over time I reckon.

May had a Barry Crocker on Saturday, Lever was a bit up and down - he was clearly effected by the crowd. Gee we missed Salo a lot. Hunt would be one the blokes who wouldn't want another poor one this week, not by himself there.

It felt like the flat week that had been coming for a while. They'd teased it for a few games beforehand.

I thought they way they set up was really strange to be honest. And made life more difficult for Petty as a result.

The structure we have run with for well over two years has been Omac, then Tomo as the deep full back/goal keeper, with May and Lever playing higher. 

Petty replaced Tomlinson and took over that role, which is how he played against the swans and the blues. 

But against the crows they put Petty on Walker when he left the forward line and May played deep.  It is too early for them to be playing around with roles in terms of Petty bedding down his role. May should have been on Walker the whole match and followed him whenever he left the 50 metre arc leaving Petty deep as the sweeper. 

Sure the crows would have tried to engineer Petty on Walker deep in that scenario. And i get that they probably were happy enough to have Walker on the wing against Petty, even if he was out marking him, as he is not kicking goals from there and they would have thought May and Gawn would then be more of weapon.

But in doing so they disrupted the systems and defensive synergy and exposed Petty to being out marked to boot.  And to make matters worse may had his worst game for the season, and was not an offensive threat at all, and max wasn't taking his marks.

They should have just keep things simple and stuck with their go to structure. 

 

[John Crow Batty 8,871]

I wish AVDB was available to park on the bench this game. I feel we are gonna need the extra muscle. 

[maximum bob 462]

In my dreams I'd save AVDB for the preliminary final, (god willing), tell him to go for it, wreak physical havoc and slip him a brown paper envelope post-match crammed with more fifties than you'd ever see in the Mahogany room. 

[Adam The God 30,274]

1 hour ago, Lord Nev said:

Agree mate. I'm not trying to put pressure on Petty, I think he's gonna be ok for us and I like the hardness he's developing. Just seems to get super nervous when kicking, but that will get better over time I reckon.

May had a Barry Crocker on Saturday, Lever was a bit up and down - he was clearly effected by the crowd. Gee we missed Salo a lot. Hunt would be one the blokes who wouldn't want another poor one this week, not by himself there.

It felt like the flat week that had been coming for a while. They'd teased it for a few games beforehand.

I disagree with this mate, but each to their own. I think he's actually a nice kick. He's just missed a few he should/would normally hit. 

[Adam The God 30,274]

1 hour ago, Hannibal Inc. said:

It's a conundrum.  We have looked better smaller, but I agree re Viney.

Also, the one weakness Footscray have is their tall key backs. 

I'd be going tall against the Bulldogs. I think we should risk it for the biscuits this week and try and play Weideman, Brown, McDonald and Jackson. I'd play Jackson through the midfield more though, because he's so clean below his knees and is a decent tackler. I worry Weideman is not going to make it, but I reckon we have to find out this year whether he will.

The only thing I haven't worked out yet is who comes out for Brown. If it's Melksham then Jackson has to take Melksham's 2 or 3 midfield stoppages as a pure mid and maybe Fritsch plays higher as the midfield/forward connector, that role Melksham plays between the arcs and high half forward.

Play Brown and Weideman deep and try and expose their talls. With Kozzie, Spargo and ANB bringing the pressure at ground level with the other mids. Petracca rotating deep forward as well.

With that team, that'd leave our midfield as Oliver, Petracca, Harmes, JJ, Jackson, ANB and even Brayshaw (if we utilise McDonald higher up the ground as a wing chop out too). Oliver, Petracca and Jackson as the offensive mids and Harmes, JJ, ANB and Gus as the defensive mids. 

I think they'll feel this line up is too unbalanced, but I reckon if we can match them in the contest, prevent them spreading against us on the outside and get enough supply with our pressure up, I reckon it's a side that could expose them.