THE RUN HOME 2020

[Lucifers Hero 40,358]

3 minutes ago, Action Jackson said:

So if we win all our remaining games we should finish top 4...

I'm guessing the Eagles will get us on %'age.

To win all 6 remaining games means 9 consecutive wins...don't like the odds.

[DistrACTION Jackson 9,224]

8 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

I'm guessing the Eagles will get us on %'age.

To win all 6 remaining games means 9 consecutive wins...don't like the odds.

It was a bit tongue in cheek.

Stranger things have happened though, so you never know.

All winnable games

[Lucifers Hero 40,358]

I just noticed that the Eagles play: Giants, Ess, Bulldogs, Saints.  Teams that we play and competitors for a 5th-8th spot or our position therein.

Will be barracking for the Eagles to smash those teams!  Especially the Giants and Bulldogs, those most threatening our spot.

Now, more convinced that 9 wins will be enough for a finals berth!

Edited August 18, 2020 by Lucifer's Hero

[old55 23,687]

It's easier said than done but if we beat the Dogs and GWS in 8 point games then we will probably only need one more win to make it.  Huge game this week - win and the road gets clearer.

Edited August 18, 2020 by Pollyanna

[Adam The God 30,407]

The AFL will be able to pack 18,000 more people into Optus Stadium than the Gabba, so that's the financial move they'll make. Eagles are a massive shot at winning it this year. Plus, they'll get the double chance.

[Dees2014 2,377]

On 8/17/2020 at 9:56 AM, Deestar9 said:

I’d much prefer to beat teams either in the eight or vying for the eight than beat up on teams whose seasons are finished. What confidence would we have in our team with that type of form ?

I’ll take beating anyone and everyone at this stage. Percentage might still be important as we move towards finals. It is still possible for us to sneak into the top four if we win every game by big margins - not impossible if we develop some 2018-style momentum. We do not meet anyone who we would normally consider unbeatable....

[Dees2014 2,377]

1 hour ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

The AFL hasn't said if there will be a pre finals bye.  We probably won't know until they decide where the GF will be and if in Perth whether the WA gov't will relax the mandatory 14 day quarantine. 

If WA quarantine is required the AFL will most likely schedule the bye the week before the GF. 

If GF is in Qld there may or may not be a bye at all.  Because 6 of the top 8 teams have a bye in the next 6 rounds I think it is less likely there will be a pre finals bye.  Eagles and Demons have had their byes. 

We won't win all our next 6 games so each will be do-or-die.  So not having a pre finals bye will really hurt our chances.

It is critical we go all out to win the next 3 (Bulldogs, Saints, Freo) so we can consider resting players in the last few rounds, if no pre finals bye is scheduled.

Momentum...momentum! A bye at this stage would interrupt our momentum and 2018 showed how important that is to us come finals time. Playing the Prelim in Perth did exactly that, something we won’t have this time. It may well though substantially affect the WCE flag hopes.

[Lucifers Hero 40,358]

2 minutes ago, Dees2014 said:

Momentum...momentum! A bye at this stage would interrupt our momentum and 2018 showed how important that is to us come finals time. Playing the Prelim in Perth did exactly that, something we won’t have this time. It may well though substantially affect the WCE flag hopes.

You misunderstood.  I wasn't suggesting a bye for us.  To the contrary I was saying as so many top 8 teams have a bye coming up that may make the AFL not have a pre-finals bye.  I believe that will hurt us as other finalists will be fresher.  And I was focusing on the importance of winning the next few games so that we can rest some at the end of the H&A season. 

The Prelims may very well be in Perth!

[hardtack 10,626]

20 minutes ago, A F said:

The AFL will be able to pack 18,000 more people into Optus Stadium than the Gabba, so that's the financial move they'll make. Eagles are a massive shot at winning it this year. Plus, they'll get the double chance.

I wonder if it's likely to be a twilight GF as well (another first)?

[old55 23,687]

2 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

You misunderstood.  I wasn't suggesting a bye for us.  To the contrary I was saying as so many top 8 teams have a bye coming up that may make the AFL not have a pre-finals bye.  I believe that will hurt us as other finalists will be fresher.  And I was focusing on the importance of winning the next few games so that we can rest some at the end of the H&A season. 

The Prelims may very well be in Perth!

I think the Prelims are likely to be at the higher finishing sides home ground if that's Brisbane and Port.  I don't think the AFL will get to go back to WA after the Swans episode and McGowan's reaction.  The Eagles are nowhere near as good away from there.

[Dees2014 2,377]

5 minutes ago, Pollyanna said:

I think the Prelims are likely to be at the higher finishing sides home ground if that's Brisbane and Port.  I don't think the AFL will get to go back to WA after the Swans episode and McGowan's reaction.  The Eagles are nowhere near as good away from there.

Quite agree. If you think any finals are going to Perth you haven’t been paying attention to the relationship between the AFL and the WA premier. WA are no chance to get any of the finals, something the Eagles appear to have accepted. The GABBA would also be 200% better for us. 

[Lucifers Hero 40,358]

14 minutes ago, Pollyanna said:

I think the Prelims are likely to be at the higher finishing sides home ground if that's Brisbane and Port.  I don't think the AFL will get to go back to WA after the Swans episode and McGowan's reaction.  The Eagles are nowhere near as good away from there.

The prelims may work out that way but without a pre finals bye we may run out of puff like we did in 2018 which was my point, not so much where they are held.

I think that is posturing by the WA government as they are negotiating big time to get some finals, especially the GF and offering the a AFL a $35m carrot. 

Edited August 18, 2020 by Lucifer's Hero

[old55 23,687]

1 minute ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Posturing by the WA government. 

They are negotiating big time to get some finals, especially the GF and offering the a AFL a $35m carrot. 

All the finals would need to be there then.  As I think you mentioned - they'd need the pre-finals bye to overcome 2 week quarantine and then play 4 finals at Optus Stadiums in the first week, that would be very tight to schedule.  They couldn't play those finals without crowds so that probably means all the finalists would need to fly out on Sunday of Round 18.  I can't see it happening.

[Lucifers Hero 40,358]

8 minutes ago, Pollyanna said:

All the finals would need to be there then.  As I think you mentioned - they'd need the pre-finals bye to overcome 2 week quarantine and then play 4 finals at Optus Stadiums in the first week, that would be very tight to schedule.  They couldn't play those finals without crowds so that probably means all the finalists would need to fly out on Sunday of Round 18.  I can't see it happening.

I've heard of different scenarios.  eg The AFL could take the 4 prelim teams to Perth and whoever wins stay for the GF.  In this case the bye would be before the Prelim, if the 14 day quarantine is still required.

Even if finals are in SA and Qld the AFL may not schedule a pre-season bye.

My only point is that until the finals schedule is released (FC last night said it would be later this month) we shouldn't assume there will be a pre-season bye and imv if there isn't it will hurt us.

Edited August 18, 2020 by Lucifer's Hero

[Lucifers Hero 40,358]

Sydney has put the cue in the rack. injury-crisis-sydney

They play 3 top 4 sides but none of the sides competing with us for a finals berth so our competitors won't get an 'easy' win vs Syd. 

I know there are no 'easy' wins but if we exploit Syd's injury position their draw works in our favour.

[JTR 2,854]

Sorry if already posted (Edit - yep, it was ?), but now all fixtures are up we can finally play around with this...

https://predictor.squiggle.com.au/

Tipping us to win all remaining games and auto tipping the rest, I came up with this:

                        W  L  D
 1. Port Adelaide      13  4  0  127.5%
 2. Brisbane Lions     13  4  0  124.3%
 3. Geelong            12  5  0  137.0%
 4. Melbourne          12  5  0  122.7%
 5. Richmond           11  5  1  125.4%
 6. West Coast         11  6  0  116.1%
 7. St Kilda           11  6  0  105.8%
 8. Collingwood         9  7  1  111.9%
 9. Carlton             9  8  0  103.1%
10. GWS                 9  8  0   96.8%
11. Western Bulldogs    7 10  0   94.1%
12. Gold Coast          6 10  1   89.2%
13. Essendon            6 10  1   85.6%
14. Hawthorn            6 11  0   91.2%
15. North Melbourne     5 12  0   86.8%
16. Fremantle           5 12  0   82.5%
17. Sydney              5 12  0   81.6%
18. Adelaide            1 16  0   56.5%

Then finals...  ?

QF1: Port Adelaide v *MELBOURNE*
QF2: Brisbane Lions v *GEELONG*
EF1: *RICHMOND* v Collingwood
EF2: *WEST COAST* v St Kilda

SF1: Port Adelaide v *RICHMOND*
SF2: Brisbane Lions v *WEST COAST*

PF1: *MELBOURNE* v West Coast
PF2: Geelong v *RICHMOND*

 GF: *MELBOURNE* v Richmond

Edited August 18, 2020 by JTR

[Engorged Onion 10,223]

33 minutes ago, JTR said:

Sorry if already posted (Edit - yep, it was ?), but now all fixtures are up we can finally play around with this...

https://predictor.squiggle.com.au/

Tipping us to win all remaining games and auto tipping the rest, I came up with this:

                        W  L  D
 1. Port Adelaide      13  4  0  127.5%
 2. Brisbane Lions     13  4  0  124.3%
 3. Geelong            12  5  0  137.0%
 4. Melbourne          12  5  0  122.7%
 5. Richmond           11  5  1  125.4%
 6. West Coast         11  6  0  116.1%
 7. St Kilda           11  6  0  105.8%
 8. Collingwood         9  7  1  111.9%
 9. Carlton             9  8  0  103.1%
10. GWS                 9  8  0   96.8%
11. Western Bulldogs    7 10  0   94.1%
12. Gold Coast          6 10  1   89.2%
13. Essendon            6 10  1   85.6%
14. Hawthorn            6 11  0   91.2%
15. North Melbourne     5 12  0   86.8%
16. Fremantle           5 12  0   82.5%
17. Sydney              5 12  0   81.6%
18. Adelaide            1 16  0   56.5%

Then finals...  ?

QF1: Port Adelaide v *MELBOURNE*
QF2: Brisbane Lions v *GEELONG*
EF1: *RICHMOND* v Collingwood
EF2: *WEST COAST* v St Kilda

SF1: Port Adelaide v *RICHMOND*
SF2: Brisbane Lions v *WEST COAST*

PF1: *MELBOURNE* v West Coast
PF2: Geelong v *RICHMOND*

 GF: *MELBOURNE* v Richmond

How on earth has our % only jumped 4% man.... we'll be into 3rd for sure if we win them all!

[JTR 2,854]

I was a little conservative with our win margins. ?

Really just wanted to see the W/L

[JTR 2,854]

Ok...  win last 6 all by 50+, and threw in an upset loss for Brisbane and Port.

Better?  ?

                        W  L  D
 1. Melbourne          12  5  0  140.1%
 2. Geelong            12  5  0  137.0%
 3. Port Adelaide      12  5  0  126.3%
 4. Brisbane Lions     12  5  0  123.6%
 5. Richmond           11  5  1  125.4%
 6. West Coast         11  6  0  116.1%
 7. St Kilda           11  6  0  103.8%
 8. Collingwood        10  6  1  112.9%
 9. Carlton            10  7  0  103.8%
10. GWS                 9  8  0   96.8%
11. Western Bulldogs    7 10  0   90.8%
12. Gold Coast          6 10  1   89.2%
13. Essendon            6 10  1   82.3%
14. Hawthorn            6 11  0   91.2%
15. North Melbourne     5 12  0   86.8%
16. Fremantle           5 12  0   80.5%
17. Sydney              5 12  0   80.3%
18. Adelaide            1 16  0   56.5%

QF1: *MELBOURNE* v Brisbane Lions
QF2: *GEELONG* v Port Adelaide
EF1: *RICHMOND* v Collingwood
EF2: *WEST COAST* v St Kilda

SF1: Brisbane Lions v *RICHMOND*
SF2: Port Adelaide v *WEST COAST*

PF1: *MELBOURNE* v West Coast
PF2: Geelong v *RICHMOND*

 GF: *MELBOURNE* v Richmond

Edited August 18, 2020 by JTR

[Whispering_Jack 30,640]

The Age has weighed into this discussion - 

How each club will fare in final rounds - and who could make the eight

As far as I’m concerned, I will follow a one week at a time principle. Hope we can beat the Bulldogs on Saturday.

 

[Demondan75 188]

Sam McClure's current prediction.

[ManDee 7,222]

So he has us winning 5 more matches losing one and dropping percentage. Must have been a bad loss!

[Lucifers Hero 40,358]

21 hours ago, Dees2014 said:

If you think any finals are going to Perth you haven’t been paying attention to the relationship between the AFL and the WA premier. WA are no chance to get any of the finals, something the Eagles appear to have accepted. The GABBA would also be 200% better for us. 

 

20 hours ago, Pollyanna said:

All the finals would need to be there then.  As I think you mentioned - they'd need the pre-finals bye to overcome 2 week quarantine and then play 4 finals at Optus Stadiums in the first week, that would be very tight to schedule.  They couldn't play those finals without crowds so that probably means all the finalists would need to fly out on Sunday of Round 18.  I can't see it happening.

fyi, article today about finals and byes afl-moving-closer-to-grand-final-clarity

Does McGowan have an ace up his sleeve?  We will know by the end of the month.

The AFL may try and keep both Qld and WA happy: offer Qld the Brownlow and at least the first two weeks of finals (6 games).  Premlims could be either Qld or WA and the GF to WA.  This keeps the door open with Qld to move the comp i/state next year if necessary and gets the big $ on offer from WA.   The byes (if any) will fall out from that timetable.

If the GF is on Oct 24 it increases the likelihood of a bye at some stage.

Of course the ultimate irony would be WA get the GF but Eagles don't make it...

In the meantime, keep winning Dees!

Edited August 18, 2020 by Lucifer's Hero

[titan_uranus 25,043]

16 hours ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Sydney has put the cue in the rack. injury-crisis-sydney

They play 3 top 4 sides but none of the sides competing with us for a finals berth so our competitors won't get an 'easy' win vs Syd. 

I know there are no 'easy' wins but if we exploit Syd's injury position their draw works in our favour.

They do play Carlton, though, and as far as I'm concerned Carlton is a genuine competitor for a finals spot.

[Lucifers Hero 40,358]

37 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

They do play Carlton, though, and as far as I'm concerned Carlton is a genuine competitor for a finals spot.

True but I see our 1 game and very large %'age as a buffer to Carlton.  Carlton need to win 4 of 6 and boost their % to make the 8.

They may do that but I don't see it being at our expense (as long as we win at least 3/6 and keep %'age over 100).   More likely Giants or Bulldogs make way for Carlton.

Of course, if we lose 4 of 6 then its 'all over red rover' for us!

Edited August 18, 2020 by Lucifer's Hero