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The Brownlow Predictor

Little Richard
in Melbourne Demons

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The AFL Brownlow predictor currently has our skipper in second place, behind Lachie Neale. 

Do we think he could win it this year? He hasn't polled as well as expected in previous years, partly due to the intense focus on midfielders over any other position IMO. Maybe this will be the year though...

Brownlow predictor as it currently stands:

13 - Lachie Neale (Brisbane)
10 - Max Gawn (Melbourne)
9 - Matt Rowell (Gold Coast)
8 - Toby Greene (GWS Giants)
8 - Travis Boak (Port Adelaide)
8 - Jack Steele (St Kilda)
7 - Dylan Shiel (Essendon)
7 - Chad Wingard (Hawthorn)
7 - Mitch Duncan (Geelong)

https://www.afl.com.au/news/476685/brownlow-predictor-the-shock-contender-challenging-lions-star

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    Do they explain how the voting works?  Is it on stats?

    Given that Petracca has had several BOG and 2nd BOG from multiple coaches it is a surprise he isn't in the top 3.   Worse, he is missing altogether ?

    Edited by Lucifer's Hero

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    4 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

    Do they explain how the voting works?  Is it on stats?

    Given that Petracca has had several BOG and 2nd BOG from multiple coaches it is a surprise he isn't in the top 3.

    Not sure how it works. I agree, it's interesting that Petracca is actually third in the betting odds though.

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    I'd love to see Maxy win it obviously but Neale is going really well, is an umpires favourite and with possibly only Zorko to take votes away from him.  Of the others, I think the only danger (based on those listed) is Boak.  Rowell is out of contention of course and Toby Greene will probably shoot himself in the foot (or use his foot to shoot himself in the foot....).

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    Trac would be ahead of Gawn, no doubt about it. Except the umps are doing the votes so it actually probably Lockhart on 18 votes

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    1 hour ago, Gorgoroth said:

    Trac would be ahead of Gawn, no doubt about it. Except the umps are doing the votes so it actually probably Lockhart on 18 votes

    Gawn was second favourite two years ago and Brayshaw outpolled him, albeit 21 to 20. I think Gawn's season has been underrated here.  The Age player of the year is a pretty accurate guide as a rule and Gawn is polling very well in that.  Second or third from memory.  He's in the top few in the Herald Sun award as well.  The coaches have Tracc in second place and Gawn around 10th. When we win Gawn is always a chance to poll 3's.  I believe Tracc has barely ever polled a Brownlow vote.  Be interesting to see whenever they count them.

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    I feel like short of an injury or suspension Lachie Neale is going to win the brownlow by a fair margin

     

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    20 hours ago, Luther said:

    Not sure how it works. I agree, it's interesting that Petracca is actually third in the betting odds though.

    yep, good luck to those who got on at 501/1 before the first practice match in Feb.  Paying 11's now.

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    2 hours ago, P-man said:

    Did lol at Chad Wingard.

    Yeah... not sure if I've just missed the Hawks match reports entirely but I haven't heard a peep from him all season.

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    19 hours ago, Swooper1987 said:

    Gawn was second favourite two years ago and Brayshaw outpolled him, albeit 21 to 20. I think Gawn's season has been underrated here.  The Age player of the year is a pretty accurate guide as a rule and Gawn is polling very well in that.  Second or third from memory.  He's in the top few in the Herald Sun award as well.  The coaches have Tracc in second place and Gawn around 10th. When we win Gawn is always a chance to poll 3's.  I believe Tracc has barely ever polled a Brownlow vote.  Be interesting to see whenever they count them.

    Is there a link to The Age votes?  Cheers.

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    5 hours ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

    Is there a link to The Age votes?  Cheers.

    I can't find one.  It's usually in the paper every Monday.

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    1 hour ago, whatwhatsaywhat said:

    arguably bog in two wins for them

    No doubt, but just the thought of the Chad winning Charlie amuses me.

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    17 hours ago, P-man said:

    Did lol at Chad Wingard.

     

    14 hours ago, Luther said:

    Yeah... not sure if I've just missed the Hawks match reports entirely but I haven't heard a peep from him all season.

    Was very good against Richmond and Brisbane 

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    On 7/29/2020 at 8:45 AM, Lucifer's Hero said:

    Is there a link to The Age votes?  Cheers.

    Haven't got a link but the totals after the last round are:

    Neale 61

    Gawn 46

    Goldstein 45

    Steele 42

    Macrae 38

    Parker 37

    Gaff 37

    Higgins 36

    Pendlebury 36

    Naitanui 35

    That's the top 10.  Petracca is on 30 with Boak and Tim Kelly.

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    • 3 weeks later...
    On 7/28/2020 at 9:58 AM, Luther said:

    The AFL Brownlow predictor currently has our skipper in second place, behind Lachie Neale. 

    Do we think he could win it this year? He hasn't polled as well as expected in previous years, partly due to the intense focus on midfielders over any other position IMO. Maybe this will be the year though...

    Brownlow predictor as it currently stands:

    13 - Lachie Neale (Brisbane)
    10 - Max Gawn (Melbourne)
    9 - Matt Rowell (Gold Coast)
    8 - Toby Greene (GWS Giants)
    8 - Travis Boak (Port Adelaide)
    8 - Jack Steele (St Kilda)
    7 - Dylan Shiel (Essendon)
    7 - Chad Wingard (Hawthorn)
    7 - Mitch Duncan (Geelong)

    https://www.afl.com.au/news/476685/brownlow-predictor-the-shock-contender-challenging-lions-star

     

    Update  https://www.afl.com.au/brownlow-medal/predictor

     Trac and Clarry have rocketed up the charts while Maxy hasn't moved due to injury and his two dominant mids  both firing up.

     

    Lachie Neale                                     20
    Travis Boak                                     13
    Christian Petracca                                     12
    Max Gawn                                     10
    Tom Hawkins                                     10
    Clayton Oliver                                     9
    Dustin Martin                                     9
    Josh J Kennedy                                     9
    Matt Rowell                                     9
    Nic Naitanui                                     9
    Zak Jones                                     9

    Edited by Pickett2Jackson

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    Neale's to lose really.  He's had an amazing season.  Great effort by the three Melbourne boys - especially Oliver in recent times.

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    I'm on Petracca with Dees to make to make the 8 @120/1. Need Neale to fall over at this stage - even then it's anyone's guess.

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