TRAINING: Monday 13th January 2020

[demoniac 1,337]

Interesting to see how they handle the intermittent smoke haze. Can't be healthy for players to be training in it. Both Brumbies and Raiders have moved their pre season out of Canberra until it stops being enveloped in smoke.

[Satyriconhome 10,880]

The difference between Kozzie Friday and Kozzie Monday, was he hadn't run a 3k on Monday

On Friday, he couldn't get near the ball

His fitness base is clearly lacking at the moment

I expect him to spend more time at Casey than AFL level

[DeeSpencer 26,273]

2 hours ago, demoniac said:

Interesting to see how they handle the intermittent smoke haze. Can't be healthy for players to be training in it. Both Brumbies and Raiders have moved their pre season out of Canberra until it stops being enveloped in smoke.

If tomirrow is anything like today I’d be looking for an indoor facility to do skills training and then hit the bikes for some fitness. 

Unless the perennially windy Casey fields is still getting some southerly winds and has better conditions?

[old55 23,833]

Really great training reports and exciting times because we've got almost the full core having a complete pre season.

I think Gawn, Oliver, May and TMac are key to our fortunes in 2020, no surprises there and only May hopefully temporarily interrupted.

Then my next core 11: Salem, Harmes, Petracca, Viney, Lever, Brayshaw, Langdon, Melksham, AVB, Fritsch and Jetta all in full training.

Only Jones, Hannan, Tomlinson  and Smith are in rehab and I have all 4 in the 3rd echelon and Hannan sounds like the only one restricted medium term.

I think if we can get that 15 on the ground for the majority of the season and with some solid support from Hibberd, Weed, OMac, Hunt, ANB, Hore, Petty and Brown, all who are in full training, we can give  the flag a real shake this year.

I think it's quite reasonable to expect 2 or 3 of the 1st and 2nd year players to make a decent contribution too. For example Lockhart, Jordon, Dunkley, Sparrow and any of the 3 draftees could step up.

Preuss is there as Max insurance.

That's about 30 goers in total.  I don't agree with other posters who say we're "6 - 8 good players off challenging".  IMO the challenge starts this year.

Edited January 14, 2020 by Fifty-5

[binman 44,530]

49 minutes ago, Fifty-5 said:

Really great training reports and exciting times because we've got almost the full core having a complete pre season.

I think Gawn, Oliver, May and TMac are key to our fortunes in 2020, no surprises there and only May hopefully temporarily interrupted.

Then my next core 11: Salem, Harmes, Petracca, Viney, Lever, Brayshaw, Langdon, Melksham, AVB, Fritsch and Jetta all in full training.

Only Jones, Hannan, Tomlinson  and Smith are in rehab and I have all 4 in the 3rd echelon and Hannan sounds like the only one restricted medium term.

I think if we can get that 15 on the ground for the majority of the season and with some solid support from Hibberd, Weed, OMac, Hunt, ANB, Hore, Petty and Brown, all who are in full training, we can give  the flag a real shake this year.

I think it's quite reasonable to expect 2 or 3 of the 1st and 2nd year players to make a decent contribution too. For example Lockhart, Jordon, Dunkley, Sparrow and any of the 3 draftees could step up.

Preuss is there as Max insurance.

That's about 30 goers in total.  I don't agree with other posters who say we're "6 - 8 good players off challenging".  IMO the challenge starts this year.

Good post, agree with most of it.

It us an interesting point you make about 1st and 2nd year players going up a level.

Last year was unusual in so far as no first year or even second year players made a real impact at senior level (As opposed to just getting a game) These days at least one normally one would have.

And no knock on any of those players. Just the way their development has progressed. 

If you include this year's draftees to the group that is now entering their 2nd and 3rd years it reasonable to expect a handful will make an impact. And maybe one might really surprise and become a really important player.

[Demons1858 1,789]

43 minutes ago, binman said:

Good post, agree with most of it.

It us an interesting point you make about 1st and 2nd year players going up a level.

Last year was unusual in so far as no first year or even second year players made a real impact at senior level (As opposed to just getting a game) These days at least one normally one would have.

And no knock on any of those players. Just the way their development has progressed. 

If you include this year's draftees to the group that is now entering their 2nd and 3rd years it reasonable to expect a handful will make an impact. And maybe one might really surprise and become a really important player.

That's what happens when you trade away 1st rounders

[binman 44,530]

22 minutes ago, Demons1858 said:

That's what happens when you trade away 1st rounders

Fair point.

But nonetheless I still think there is some real potential in players like sparrow, dunkley, jordon, Lockhart and Bedford. 

ALao petty, spargo, fritter and baker are all coming into their 3rd season and I included that group in my comments.

Add jackson, kozzie and rivers to that group and there is a pretty good core of young players coming through.

[Ron Burgundy 8,587]

This is a cracking training thread - thanks for the reports.

Fingers crossed on May and Smith, but I’m no longer as worried about our forward line and our ability to score goals than I was about 3 months ago.

T Mac seems to have rediscovered his mojo, Melksham is back to his best, Fritsch is in superb form, Brown will be an effective tall forward, we have plenty of other decent options (tall and small) to rotate through, and we now have good wingers and attacking mids who are fit and who will be able to effectively deliver the ball. This represents such a big change from last season.

As an aside, I’m glad I’m not an Essendon supporter - apparently one third of their list is not able to train at the moment. If I were Worsfold, I’d be handing over the baton right now.

 

[old dee 24,001]

9 minutes ago, Ron Burgundy said:

This is a cracking training thread - thanks for the reports.

Fingers crossed on May and Smith, but I’m no longer as worried about our forward line and our ability to score goals than I was about 3 months ago.

T Mac seems to have rediscovered his mojo, Melksham is back to his best, Fritsch is in superb form, Brown will be an effective tall forward, we have plenty of other decent options (tall and small) to rotate through, and we now have good wingers and attacking mids who are fit and who will be able to effectively deliver the ball. This represents such a big change from last season.

As an aside, I’m glad I’m not an Essendon supporter - apparently one third of their list is not able to train at the moment. If I were Worsfold, I’d be handing over the baton right now.

 

Dees 2019. It will be interesting to see how they go this year.

[monoccular 17,642]

13 hours ago, Yokozuna said:

Kossie - silky, quick, just what we need. Just needs some fitness as he won’t play much u til he can use his speed and pressure for more than 10 minutes........

 

Sure fitness and endurance will inevitably improve but as I recall Bwooooce’s previous love child, Cyrrrrrrriiilllll did his best work in short bursts and rarely was dominant for a full game (happy to be corrected on that).

[Fat Tony 5,306]

5 hours ago, Fifty-5 said:

Really great training reports and exciting times because we've got almost the full core having a complete pre season.

I think Gawn, Oliver, May and TMac are key to our fortunes in 2020, no surprises there and only May hopefully temporarily interrupted.

Then my next core 11: Salem, Harmes, Petracca, Viney, Lever, Brayshaw, Langdon, Melksham, AVB, Fritsch and Jetta all in full training.

Only Jones, Hannan, Tomlinson  and Smith are in rehab and I have all 4 in the 3rd echelon and Hannan sounds like the only one restricted medium term.

I think if we can get that 15 on the ground for the majority of the season and with some solid support from Hibberd, Weed, OMac, Hunt, ANB, Hore, Petty and Brown, all who are in full training, we can give  the flag a real shake this year.

I think it's quite reasonable to expect 2 or 3 of the 1st and 2nd year players to make a decent contribution too. For example Lockhart, Jordon, Dunkley, Sparrow and any of the 3 draftees could step up.

Preuss is there as Max insurance.

That's about 30 goers in total.  I don't agree with other posters who say we're "6 - 8 good players off challenging".  IMO the challenge starts this year.

Petracca really needs to go to the next level IMO but your analysis is on the money. 

[CHF 2,817]

12 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

People forget that in 2018 we went an impressive 8-2 between rounds 16 - semi final (our best 2 months of footy in 12 years) and O Mac played in all those games without the services of Lever and May.

He must have done something right in 2018.  

That period of work he did is what gives me confidence he can perform if/when required.

[old55 23,833]

10 hours ago, CHF said:

That period of work he did is what gives me confidence he can perform if/when required.

Right now OMac is at least pencilled in for R1 considering WC tall forward line and Petty training with the forwards.  Quite a few posters here and a particular questioner at the Info night need to come to terms with this reality.

[dpositive 1,818]

16 hours ago, DeeSpencer said:

If tomirrow is anything like today I’d be looking for an indoor facility to do skills training and then hit the bikes for some fitness. 

Unless the perennially windy Casey fields is still getting some southerly winds and has better conditions?

Maybe a chance to look for a country location where smoke is not so prevalent. 

I don't recommend NE Vic (we are still generating most of it), but surely there are some smoke free zones.

Relocation not only gives country members a chance to relieve Dland posters but also shows clubs concerns for players buildingcommittment and a change which may refreshes interest. As they are scheduled to go North some of these factors are already acknowledged.

[old55 23,833]

11 hours ago, Fat Tony said:

Petracca really needs to go to the next level IMO but your analysis is on the money. 

I agree Tony. The overall outlook for the players in each of my categories above is upside.

Petracca and Brayshaw have the talent to move into the A Grade and if Viney can stay fit he's definitely in there.

Weed and Petty have every chance to elevate to the B grade this year.

And I've already said I expect 2-3 from the youth group to establish themselves.

The only players potentially on the slide are Jones, Hibberd and Jetta, and maybe AVB and May if they can't stay injury free.

Edited January 14, 2020 by Fifty-5

[Red and Blue realist 2,058]

39 minutes ago, dpositive said:

Maybe a chance to look for a country location where smoke is not so prevalent. 

I don't recommend NE Vic (we are still generating most of it), but surely there are some smoke free zones.

Relocation not only gives country members a chance to relieve Dland posters but also shows clubs concerns for players buildingcommittment and a change which may refreshes interest. As they are scheduled to go North some of these factors are already acknowledged.

Not sure if that's too possible DP, doesn't seem like there's too much of the state that's not impacted. I was 3hrs west of Melbourne on Monday and there was thick smoke there, and it'd be even worse today. The trip up north is usually designed to coincide with the Aust Open so it's hard for them to bring that forward as well.

[dpositive 1,818]

27 minutes ago, Red and Blue realist said:

Not sure if that's too possible DP, doesn't seem like there's too much of the state that's not impacted. I was 3hrs west of Melbourne on Monday and there was thick smoke there, and it'd be even worse today. The trip up north is usually designed to coincide with the Aust Open so it's hard for them to bring that forward as well.

Thanks RaBr as I was not  sure if there was any clear air anywhere. Caution is warranted as while the fires here are predicted to last months it's still early in the training program.

[Fat Tony 5,306]

 

1 hour ago, Fifty-5 said:

I agree Tony. The overall outlook for the players in each of my categories above is upside.

Petracca and Brayshaw have the talent to move into the A Grade and if Viney can stay fit he's definitely in there.

Weed and Petty have every chance to elevate to the B grade this year.

And I've already said I expect 2-3 from the youth group to establish themselves.

The only players potentially on the slide are Jones, Hibberd and Jetta, and maybe AVB and May if they can't stay injury free.

I broadly agree with this, but (for balance) … While TMac should have a better year than 2019, he could be past his zenith. The jury is out on Lever IMO, who is very overrated on Demonland. He struggles to defend key forwards and is a poor kick. Lever is obviously very good at reading the play but he is vulnerable if isolated inside 50. Gawn could go backwards, albeit he is coming from the top of the mountain. Melksham is another who could go backwards.

Edited January 14, 2020 by Fat Tony

[old55 23,833]

1 hour ago, Fat Tony said:

 

I broadly agree with this, but (for balance) … While TMac should have a better year than 2019, he could be past his zenith. The jury is out on Lever IMO, who is very overrated on Demonland. He struggles to defend key forwards and is a poor kick. Lever is obviously very good at reading the play but he is vulnerable if isolated inside 50. Gawn could go backwards, albeit he is coming from the top of the mountain. Melksham is another who could go backwards.

TMac 27yo and Gawn 28yo should be hitting their peak over the next 2-3 years.

I've rated Lever and Melksham in the B category and I'm comfortable they sit there for some time to come - some may have them as As currently.

[binman 44,530]

2 hours ago, Fifty-5 said:

I agree Tony. The overall outlook for the players in each of my categories above is upside.

Petracca and Brayshaw have the talent to move into the A Grade and if Viney can stay fit he's definitely in there.

Weed and Petty have every chance to elevate to the B grade this year.

And I've already said I expect 2-3 from the youth group to establish themselves.

The only players potentially on the slide are Jones, Hibberd and Jetta, and maybe AVB and May if they can't stay injury free.

I'm not sure about being on the slide as such but this year is a critical one for hunt, who is treading water a bit.

We need his pace, he is competitive and has an x factor but it's not clear what tge best position and role he is best suited for. And there should be a lot more competition for spots this year, so he won't be gifted any games (hopefully).

Big year in his career I reckon. The positive is that if he is regular starting 22 player he will have gone up a level.

[Fat Tony 5,306]

3 minutes ago, binman said:

I'm not sure about being on the slide as such but this year is a critical one for hunt, who is treading water a bit.

We need his pace, he is competitive and has an x factor but it's not clear what tge best position and role he is best suited for. And there should be a lot more competition for spots this year, so he won't be gifted any games (hopefully).

Big year in his career I reckon. The positive is that if he is regular starting 22 player he will have gone up a level.

Hunt is still our best bet as a forward pocket IMO. He kicked 21 goals in 18 games last year, which is respectable. Bedford, Pickett Lockhart, Spargo or Corey Wagner would need to step up to take his spot.

[binman 44,530]

4 minutes ago, Fat Tony said:

Hunt is still our best bet as a forward pocket IMO. He kicked 21 goals in 18 games last year, which is respectable. Bedford, Pickett Lockhart, Spargo or Corey Wagner would need to step up to take his spot.

Maybe. He doesn't look a natural crumbing forward, but as you say he kicked goals. But from memory most were from leads not crumbing?

[Fat Tony 5,306]

16 minutes ago, binman said:

Maybe. He doesn't look a natural crumbing forward, but as you say he kicked goals. But from memory most were from leads not crumbing?

He had 26 set shots and 10 field shots, which shows you are correct. https://www.statsinsider.com.au/afl/shot-charting

In terms of a rough comparison to other forwards:

Stephenson, Cameron and McDonald-Tipungwuti are around 50% in terms of set shots versus general play. Ablett is 30% and Papley 35%. Green is 40%. Breust, Walters and Castagna are around 55%. So Hunt at 72% is a much higher percentage.

[old55 23,833]

1 hour ago, binman said:

I'm not sure about being on the slide as such but this year is a critical one for hunt, who is treading water a bit.

We need his pace, he is competitive and has an x factor but it's not clear what tge best position and role he is best suited for. And there should be a lot more competition for spots this year, so he won't be gifted any games (hopefully).

Big year in his career I reckon. The positive is that if he is regular starting 22 player he will have gone up a level.

Yes I agree he's currently in the C class and it could go either way this year.  I think he could find a role and go onto B class, regular 22, stay the same as last year and probably be traded or regress and be delisted. 

Sounds like he's getting a good pre season. It has been observed that lack of agility is his negative.

[daisycutter 29,892]

3 minutes ago, Fifty-5 said:

Yes I agree he's currently in the C class and it could go either way this year.  I think he could find a role and go onto B class, regular 22, stay the same as last year and probably be traded or regress and be delisted. 

Sounds like he's getting a good pre season. It has been observed that lack of agility is his negative.

I'd put hunt in the depth category. ok when you need to promote someone. will play the odd serviceable game, has shown promise but has been so far unable to take that next step. I'm not expecting much from him. if he proves me wrong then well and good.