Farewell Jesse Hogan

[beelzebub 23,382]

3 hours ago, EnterTheDragon said:

 

I’ve heard that Hogan becomes a restricted free agent nextt season? This could greatly affect things should he stay at Melbourne.

Heard wrong.

[praha 11,240]

8 hours ago, Dr.D said:

mahoney can't screw us again at the trade table. He seems far too nice. Why did we cough up 2 first rounders for Lever when he was out of contract and we had all of the power? No-one can pre-empt an injury but we are so far behind on that trade so far. You need to be stronger this time around Josh!!

He set the bar pretty high, no? You can either go the Adelaide or even the Carlton or WC route and pretend to be hard arses but end of the day the player will get to their destination. Our trade with Crows for Lever will stand as an important moment whenever we go to the trade table because that set the precedent.

[pbrown 2]

7 hours ago, Older demon said:

Consider this option then. Freo I expect will not give up pick 5 & 6 (after GC compensation for Lynch) and I hope MFC say no deal, go away. Rightly so, no compromise and no deal and Jessie can be part of finals glory.

Hogans manager cleverly requests a 1 year extension till 2020 which takes Jessie into restricted free agency and then he can accept the mega deal which MFC wont match and take compensation. Hogan will have done his 8 years of service is still only 25 and gets the contract of a lifetime. I don't think at this stage we will have a million dollar a year player yet, as we try to keep our list together and share the money .  If we need another backman play Hogan at CHB where he made all Australian in the under 18's. 

GC will not let May go cheap and he is a free agent next year anyway and will be hunting dollars. We get Kolajazz for a third rounder 

Yep I was thinking the same with Hogan. Do a  full pre season as a key backman and see what happens

[beelzebub 23,382]

If this is to be, it needs doing asap. Mock bravado and delusional standoffs just bite you....and make you look stupid when reality eventually over-rides.

MFC will do a deal, one that works for us. So many caught up in false detail.

Watch and learn

[Atholwebb 110]

I think Jesse will likely leave but the Club now that we are in the premiership window has to be asking him to recommit till at least till the end of 2021 and will be making an attractive offer to him.  We don’t want Jesse leaving at the end of next year if he just sees out the current contract. It’s too disruptive to the team and the structure. Time for Jesse to commit or move on. We cannot have this saga at the end of every year. Either Jesse is in or he is out. 

[Lucifers Hero 40,339]

7 hours ago, Older demon said:

Consider this option then. Freo I expect will not give up pick 5 & 6 (after GC compensation for Lynch) and I hope MFC say no deal, go away. Rightly so, no compromise and no deal and Jessie can be part of finals glory.

Hogans manager cleverly requests a 1 year extension till 2020 which takes Jessie into restricted free agency and then he can accept the mega deal which MFC wont match and take compensation. Hogan will have done his 8 years of service is still only 25 and gets the contract of a lifetime. I don't think at this stage we will have a million dollar a year player yet, as we try to keep our list together and share the money .  If we need another backman play Hogan at CHB where he made all Australian in the under 18's. 

GC will not let May go cheap and he is a free agent next year anyway and will be hunting dollars. We get Kolajazz for a third rounder 

That might suit Hogan but I can't imagine the club buying it.  He gets the mega deal and we get pick 16-18 as AFL comp when he goes as an FA.  He won't get a one year extension!  Leaving mfc as an FA won't happen. 

The real heat is on Hogan - does he want a another year of media 'go home' speculation.  With this mooted move to go home now the speculation will become stratospheric in 2019.  He is a private guy, I reckon he will choose to go now and get on with his life. 

[Nasher 33,617]

4 hours ago, Fifty-5 said:

There's an agenda of unjustified outrage among some posters who use misinformation and ignorance as fuel.

Microcosm of society.

[Lucifers Hero 40,339]

As an aside we went thru this little dance with Jesse with his last contract extension.  It was announced on Oct 4 2016, a few days before the trade period started.  I recall learned chat here on DL that he had been given an ultimatum: extend the contract now or we will trade you.  The timing of that contract supports that chat.

I suspect the same thing is happening now, except maybe a tougher stance on extension terms.  Can't imagine the club wanting this little dance to happen every two years.  For the club, for the team, for Jesse he needs to commit for the long haul or he goes.  I really don't think there is a satisfactory middle road here. 

[beelzebub 23,382]

No middle ground.. stay or go. 

I truly believe it's like sunshine...what you see today actually originated some time ago.

However the 'legitimate' trade period is next week. This is all just circus circle work

[At Least I Saw a Flag 5,274]

The club has been extremely loyal to JH.

Ned Kelly's (supposed) last words were "such is life".

Edited October 3, 2018 by bingers

[Dr.D 1,771]

4 hours ago, Fifty-5 said:

Correct and well said but you shouldn't need to do it.  I have already posted this in the thread and it's far from the first time.

It is hard to understand why @Dr.D continues to post wrong information about historical trades and then makes incorrect assumptions based on these errors.  The real information is easy to find on the internet.

Mahoney and ream have done a tremendous list management job recently, not least creatively trading up for Oliver and Weed.

We had @goodwindees telling us we should be "harder" and more like Essendon.  When I challenged him to provide a list of Dodoro's trading coups all I got was crickets.

There's an agenda of unjustified outrage among some posters who use misinformation and ignorance as fuel.

Please! you're telling me harrison petty and an upgrade from a 4th to a 3rd round draft pick actually changes anything?  The odds of picking up a career player drops significantly after the first round. These were merely slight adjustments to a one sided trade. Adelaide definitely got the better of that trade thus far. Lever will miss games next season too so we've lost 1.5 seasons from him unfortunately.  I love josh Mahoneys ability to get things done but we could've technically got him for free if we wanted to play hardball. 

[Jibroni 5,009]

3 minutes ago, Dr.D said:

These were merely slight adjustments to a one sided trade. Adelaide definitely got the better of that trade thus far. Lever will miss games next season too so we've lost 1.5 seasons from him unfortunately.  I love josh Mahoneys ability to get things done but we could've technically got him for free if we wanted to play hardball. 

But if Lever did not get injured we most likely take Collingwoods spot last week and be singing Mahoneys praises. Lever was the right player to trade for at the time.

[Undeeterred 3,124]

16 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

As an aside we went thru this little dance with Jesse with his last contract extension.  It was announced on Oct 4 2016, a few days before the trade period started.  I recall learned chat here on DL that he had been given an ultimatum: extend the contract now or we will trade you.  The timing of that contract supports that chat.

I suspect the same thing is happening now, except maybe a tougher stance on extension terms.  Can't imagine the club wanting this little dance to happen every two years.  For the club, for the team, for Jesse he needs to commit for the long haul or he goes.  I really don't think there is a satisfactory middle road here. 

Whoever is driving this speculation, the die is cast in my view. He has to go - there's no way he can sign up to us with any credibility given how long he and the club have let this go on.

He's definitely going.

[Lucifers Hero 40,339]

The heat on Freo just went up on Freo: 

"WEST Coast coach Adam Simpson hasn't ruled out pursuing Jesse Hogan, declaring the Eagles are "all ears" if the star Melbourne forward...want to come home".

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-10-04/eagles-all-ears-if-hogan-kelly-want-wa-return

Eagles don't have the sal cap or the trade currency to better a Freo deal but it certainly puts the pressure on Freo to get a deal done. 

Very clever by WCE it forces Freo to pay the max which weakens their position on other list management decisions and in a two horse town it by default strengthens WCE's position.  Its a mini version of Packer forcing Ch7 to pay max price for AFL TV rights!

Thank you, Eagles ?

Edited October 3, 2018 by Lucifer's Hero

[beelzebub 23,382]

Thanks Adam... goalposts concreted in now

Reality though...Eagles would find it very hard to ante up.

[SFebes 4,884]

3 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

The heat on Freo just went up on Freo: 

"WEST Coast coach Adam Simpson hasn't ruled out pursuing Jesse Hogan, declaring the Eagles are "all ears" if the star Melbourne forward...want to come home".

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-10-04/eagles-all-ears-if-hogan-kelly-want-wa-return

Eagles don't have the sal cap or the trade currency to better a Freo deal but it certainly puts the pressure on Freo to get a deal done.  Very clever by WCE it forces Freo to pay the max which weakens their position on other list management decisions.  Its a mini version of the Packer deal to force Ch7 to pay max price for AFL TV rights!

Thank you, Eagles ?

Simmo just went BANG!

[SFebes 4,884]

10 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

The heat on Freo just went up on Freo: 

"WEST Coast coach Adam Simpson hasn't ruled out pursuing Jesse Hogan, declaring the Eagles are "all ears" if the star Melbourne forward...want to come home".

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-10-04/eagles-all-ears-if-hogan-kelly-want-wa-return

Eagles don't have the sal cap or the trade currency to better a Freo deal but it certainly puts the pressure on Freo to get a deal done. 

Very clever by WCE it forces Freo to pay the max which weakens their position on other list management decisions and in a two horse town it by default strengthens WCE's position.  Its a mini version of Packer forcing Ch7 to pay max price for AFL TV rights!

Thank you, Eagles ?

It also means that Freo will now have to do a deal this year as next year is the unknown and they won't hold better cards than they do now, it's a good situation for us right now thanks to Eagles interest.

[GCDee 3,199]

16 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

The heat on Freo just went up on Freo: 

"WEST Coast coach Adam Simpson hasn't ruled out pursuing Jesse Hogan, declaring the Eagles are "all ears" if the star Melbourne forward...want to come home".

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-10-04/eagles-all-ears-if-hogan-kelly-want-wa-return

Eagles don't have the sal cap or the trade currency to better a Freo deal but it certainly puts the pressure on Freo to get a deal done. 

Very clever by WCE it forces Freo to pay the max which weakens their position on other list management decisions and in a two horse town it by default strengthens WCE's position.  Its a mini version of Packer forcing Ch7 to pay max price for AFL TV rights!

Thank you, Eagles ?

I forgive the Eagles for giving us the belting of a life time in the prelim now this has pretty much certainly netted us 2 low first rounders. 

Weirdly I kind of would want Jesse to see some success (after we win a flag) at a new club and he wont be getting that under Ross the boss. 

[old55 23,687]

It could get ugly if he nominates the Eagles though.  They have Gaff cap space too.

[rjay 25,073]

21 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Eagles don't have the sal cap or the trade currency to better a Freo deal but it certainly puts the pressure on Freo to get a deal done. 

They will have the Gaff money...so I would expect salary cap may not be an issue.

[John Demonic 5,850]

22 minutes ago, SFebes said:

Simmo just went BANG!

On his spud gun. Pick 20 & 21 !! No, but seriously, convince gaff to join us and pay some of his salary to reach NM's figure and then we'll talk picks for Hogan, Simmo

Edited October 3, 2018 by johndemonic

[SFebes 4,884]

4 minutes ago, johndemonic said:

On his spud gun. Pick 20 & 21 !! No, but seriously, give us gaff and pay some of his salary and then we'll talk picks for Hogan Simmo

As I said in my post above, it's not about this year for WCE, Freo now know they are interested and it'll force Freos hand to do a trade this year as next year is unknown, who knows WCE may trade up and release players to gain Hogan next year and Freo may only have a single first round pick say pick 8, that's why Freo will want to get Hogan right now as they know they can trump the Eagles picks 20 and 21. Game on.

Edited October 3, 2018 by SFebes

[GCDee 3,199]

1 minute ago, SFebes said:

As I said in my post above, it's not about this year for WCE, Freo now know they are interested and it'll force Freos hand to do a trade this year as next year is unknown, who knows WCE may trade up and release players to gain Hogan next year, that's why Freo will want to get Hogan right now as they know they can trump the Eagles picks 20 and 21. Game on.

Hypothetically if they match the Gaff offer & force a trade in means WCE will have picks 10 & 18 this year... which on points is worth between pick 2 & 3. 

That would be a pretty damn good starting point for a trade. 

If the general consensus is he is worth pick 5 & 10 then on points we would need another pick somewhere between 15-18 to get the same value...

Therefore!

Hogan out

10, 18 & WCE 2019 first round in. 

[John Demonic 5,850]

8 minutes ago, GCDee said:

Hypothetically if they match the Gaff offer & force a trade in means WCE will have picks 10 & 18 this year... which on points is worth between pick 2 & 3. 

That would be a pretty damn good starting point for a trade. 

If the general consensus is he is worth pick 5 & 10 then on points we would need another pick somewhere between 15-18 to get the same value...

Therefore!

Hogan out

10, 18 & WCE 2019 first round in. 

I thought they needed 1.2mill xap space to match?

 

Thats why i thought it served their interest to pay some of gaffs salary at MFC in exchange for us accepting their pick 20 & 2 for Hogan

Edited October 3, 2018 by johndemonic

[Lucifers Hero 40,339]

9 minutes ago, GCDee said:

Hypothetically if they match the Gaff offer & force a trade in means WCE will have picks 10 & 18 this year... which on points is worth between pick 2 & 3. 

That would be a pretty damn good starting point for a trade. 

If the general consensus is he is worth pick 5 & 10 then on points we would need another pick somewhere between 15-18 to get the same value...

Therefore!

Hogan out

10, 18 & WCE 2019 first round in. 

Nice hypothetical!  It would really snooker North:  choose between Polec or Gaff!!

 

Your underlying point is valid.  If WCE want Jesse they will find the trade currency to make it happen.  They can package up their 2018/2019 picks (to other clubs) to find a deal that we can agree with.  Any WCE players we would be interested in, for a Jesse deal?

Having said that I reckon WCE are posturing!  Their fans would be asking the big question:  Why aren't we chasing Jesse?  WCE can't be seen to be doing nothing. 

Their fans would love the theater of giving Freo a fright and watching them squirm, even if they don't get Jesse.

Edited October 3, 2018 by Lucifer's Hero