Run home to Finals - 2018

[Leoncelli_36 2,264]

As good of a season as we have had and as talented as our list is, I remain of the view that we miss and finish 9th again. That is unless we can beat Swans and GWS. If that happens we are in. I see us only winning 1 out of the remaining 3 and falling to 9th. 

[The Chazz 4,077]

The good part about this coming weekend is that we will know the results of the other "8 point games".

I think Hawthorn are a lock to make it, so we need to hope they beat Geelong.  If we win this week and Geelong lose, I can't see them passing us, even if we lose the last two and they (will) win the last two.

Port also have a tough run, so we need to barrack hard for the Eagles to roll them.  It's unlikely that the Eagles will miss the top 2, but there's also the possibility of Power dropping 2 of their next 3.  Again, if we can roll Sydney, and West Coast beats Port, it adds a lot of pressure on Port to win their last two (against Collingwood and Essendon).

There's no way I can see the Dogs beating North, so we're going to need to rely on Adelaide rowing North the following week.  With North a game behind us, and with 2 very winnable games in their next 3, again, we will need to beat Sydney to give us that 2 game buffer on them, so regardless of our last two games, our percentage should stop them from passing us.

With the results of the likes of Haw vs Geel, Power vs WCE, Pies vs Bris and Dogs vs North being known before our game starts on Sunday, if we have all the results go our way (especially a Hawks and Eagles win), I reckon we can lock our spot in the 8 with a win over Sydney.  And if somehow the Lions and Dogs can get up, we'll be right in the hunt for a top 4 position.

We MUST beat Sydney this week to make finals.  A win over either West Coast or GWS I think locks us in for a Top 4 spot.

[Deeoldfart 8,005]

I did the predictor again after the weekend results, and the likely fallout (injuries and suspension).  Trying to be as objective as possible for a diehard Demon, I had us beating the Swans and the Eagles (which looks easier now) and losing to GWS.  Final result had us ending 5th, and playing the Hawks in the first Elimination Final.  However, other permutations have us finishing as high as 4th and as low as 9th.  Bottom line ......... buckle up for the ride, this is going down to the wire.  Stock up with your prescribed BP / heart  medication and preferred beverages.

[Lucifers Hero 39,562]

33 minutes ago, Leoncelli_36 said:

I did the ladder predictor this morning, factoring in that we only win 1 of the next three games and had North losing to Adelaide in Adelaide. That saw us finishing 6th. I also had Hawks beating Geelong. Those 2 games are the anomalies  I also had North losing to the Doggies. It is really tight. A win this week for us is a must. I think 13 and our percentage will be enough. 

 

19 minutes ago, Leoncelli_36 said:

As good of a season as we have had and as talented as our list is, I remain of the view that we miss and finish 9th again. That is unless we can beat Swans and GWS. If that happens we are in. I see us only winning 1 out of the remaining 3 and falling to 9th. 

Five bob each way, L36??

[What 18,810]

1 minute ago, The Chazz said:

 

Port also have a tough run, so we need to barrack hard for the Eagles to roll them.  It's unlikely that the Eagles will miss the top 2,

 

If Melbourne beats Sydney and Port beats West Coast ....  we go to Perth the week after and if we roll the Eagles, we leapfrog them.  Likely pushing them out of the top 4 completely and moving us to 2nd or 3rd.

Maybe we end up playing GWS in ROund 23 for 2nd place... and play them again in the first final.   So many possibilities  (including not making the finals at all).

[The Chazz 4,077]

12 minutes ago, Petraccattack said:

If Melbourne beats Sydney and Port beats West Coast ....  we go to Perth the week after and if we roll the Eagles, we leapfrog them.  Likely pushing them out of the top 4 completely and moving us to 2nd or 3rd.

Maybe we end up playing GWS in ROund 23 for 2nd place... and play them again in the first final.   So many possibilities  (including not making the finals at all).

Problem with the Eagles is that they have Brisbane in the last round (I appreciate it is in Brisbane), and we have GWS, so I would expect that West Coast will leap frog us back.  And let's not forget that GWS are half a game ahead of us.  The only way we can finish 2nd is for us to in all our remaining games, and for the Eagles to lose this week.  I think this scenario is highly unlikely, but I'm not against rooting for it!

[Lucifers Hero 39,562]

36 minutes ago, MSFebey said:

This time of the year is all about injuries.

Very true.  For what is facing us:

• Sydney are playing with a lot of their players injured and are inconsistent.
• WCE are not playing well and without Kennedy, Nic Nat and Gaff will struggle.
• GWS have big outs in Greene and Dawson.  Not sure when HWSNBN retruns.

We should get Hibberd and Melksham back in coming weeks and I think we have good replacements for Smith.  We certainly miss Viney and Lever but we have learnt to play and importantly learnt to win without them.

So on the injury front we are doing ok vs our last 3 opponents.  Probably, better than most other teams in the finals race. 

The bye after rnd 23 should give everyone a chance to freshen up so the injury landscape will look quite different for the finals.

Fingers crossed for no more major injuries for us.

[DubDee 25,590]

Surely it is time for the 'Book your Finals Tickets' letter from the club???

[Lucifers Hero 39,562]

Following on @MSFebeypoint on injuries.  The scary team is Hawthorn.

• Grant Birchall  Knee  2-4 weeks
•  Harry Jones Shoulder Indefinite
•  Ben McEvoy Cheekbone 3 weeks
•  James Sicily Wrist 4 weeks

They will have Birchall, McEvoy and Sicily back for finals.  Virtually a full list and certainly all their top 30 to choose from.

Hawks are the real wild card in the finals.  They will have everything going for them:  Master coach, healthy list, hardened finals campaigners.

Beware the Hawks come September!!

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

Our finals start now.

[Demonland 71,313]

2 minutes ago, Clint Bizkit said:

Our finals start now.

3 Qualifying/Elimination Finals.

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,762]

56 minutes ago, The Chazz said:

I think Hawthorn are a lock to make it, so we need to hope they beat Geelong.  If we win this week and Geelong lose, I can't see them passing us, even if we lose the last two and they (will) win the last two.

On the assumption we win 13 games:

I actually hope Geelong beats Hawthorn this week.

Geelong are going to [censored] Freo and GC in the last 2 rounds to the point where they could leap frog us on percentage if we finish on 13 wins, so you may as well given them 14 wins.

The good part about Hawthorn losing to Geelong is that they play Sydney in the final game. The loser of that game will likely fall below us on the ladder with 13 wins in the event that Sydney beat either us or GWS.

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,762]

1 hour ago, Leoncelli_36 said:

As good of a season as we have had and as talented as our list is, I remain of the view that we miss and finish 9th again. That is unless we can beat Swans and GWS. If that happens we are in. I see us only winning 1 out of the remaining 3 and falling to 9th. 

An amazing sequence of events would have to happen for us to miss the finals on 13 wins.

[david_neitz_is_my_dad 4,083]

27 minutes ago, DubDee said:

Surely it is time for the 'Book your Finals Tickets' letter from the club???

At 3 quarter time this Sunday up by 5 goals the button gets pressed, only to have the Swans easily come back and get over the line and us to not win another game ?

[old55 23,369]

1 minute ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

An amazing sequence of events would have to happen for us to miss the finals on 13 wins.

Not really:

• North and Geelong win all 3
• 2 of Port, Hawthorn, Collingwood and Sydney win 2

[SFebes 4,884]

14 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Following on @MSFebeypoint on injuries.  The scary team is Hawthorn.

• Grant Birchall  Knee  2-4 weeks
•  Harry Jones Shoulder Indefinite
•  Ben McEvoy Cheekbone 3 weeks
•  James Sicily Wrist 4 weeks

They will have Birchall, McEvoy and Sicily back for finals.  Virtually a full list and certainly all their top 30 to choose from.

Hawks are the real wild card in the finals.  They will have everything going for them:  Master coach, healthy list, hardened finals campaigners.

Beware the Hawks come September!!

Really not sure why or how I left out Hawks (probably because I hate them, but more likely not enough coffee)

Thanks LH

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

10 minutes ago, Demonland said:

3 Qualifying/Elimination Finals.

Against finals-quality teams.

[DubDee 25,590]

10 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

On the assumption we win 13 games:

I actually hope Geelong beats Hawthorn this week.

Geelong are going to [censored] Freo and GC in the last 2 rounds to the point where they could leap frog us on percentage if we finish on 13 wins, so you may as well given them 14 wins.

The good part about Hawthorn losing to Geelong is that they play Sydney in the final game. The loser of that game will likely fall below us on the ladder with 13 wins in the event that Sydney beat either us or GWS.

this is very unlikely.  they need to make up 14%. we only increased by 4% after a 100 pt win

[Maxwell Edison MD 143]

40 minutes ago, DubDee said:

Surely it is time for the 'Book your Finals Tickets' letter from the club???

Haha, too soon mate. 

[Jibroni 4,987]

As long as we beat Sydney if Port lose two more matches or Geelong and Kangas lose one match each were in the 8.

Hence Im going for Hawks, Dogs and West Coke this week.

 

 

[Wiseblood 24,637]

You can always tell something about a supporter when they complete the 'ladder predictor'.  Some are realistic, others can't help but go with the 'horror scenario' of us missing out, even if we reach 13 wins.  

If we win this week then we're almost a lock to make it.  Winning two is ideal, but 13 wins and super percentage should be more than enough.

[Willmoy1947 4,081]

1 hour ago, Deeoldfart said:

I did the predictor again after the weekend results, and the likely fallout (injuries and suspension).  Trying to be as objective as possible for a diehard Demon, I had us beating the Swans and the Eagles (which looks easier now) and losing to GWS.  Final result had us ending 5th, and playing the Hawks in the first Elimination Final.  However, other permutations have us finishing as high as 4th and as low as 9th.  Bottom line ......... buckle up for the ride, this is going down to the wire.  Stock up with your prescribed BP / heart  medication and preferred beverages.

Are we allowed take computers on the Styx??

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

2 hours ago, MSFebey said:

This time of the year is all about injuries.

 

 

2 hours ago, MSFebey said:

RICH

Have been Starting to get a couple. Butler, Conca, Graham, Prestia all due to come back within the next 3 weeks.

Certainly helps a lot when arguably 8 of your most important players can stay healthy for a long time.

Games Missed since the start of 2017.

Rance - 0

Astbury - 1

Grimes - 1

Cotchin - 1

Martin - 1

Lambert - 1

Nankervis - 1

Riewoldt - 2

 

 

 

 

 

[SFebes 4,884]

18 minutes ago, Dee Zephyr said:

 

Certainly helps a lot when arguably 8 of your most important players can stay healthy for a long time.

Games Missed since the start of 2017.

Rance - 0

Astbury - 1

Grimes - 1

Cotchin - 1

Martin - 1

Lambert - 1

Nankervis - 1

Riewoldt - 2

 

 

 

 

 

Injection program

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,762]

57 minutes ago, DubDee said:

this is very unlikely.  they need to make up 14%. we only increased by 4% after a 100 pt win

Problem is a couple of 4 goal losses to us and our percentage will drop right down.

Geelong are going to do some serious serious damage in the last fortnight down at the Cattery in terms of winning margin. I did the ladder predictor which has Geelong overtaking us on percentage with 2 100 point wins.