Looking ahead ... the Path to September

[drdrake 3,059]

On ‎1‎/‎07‎/‎2017 at 8:49 AM, brendan said:

Does anyone think we might struggle to make finals now with all our injuries, Carlton will need to be a must win if we lose have some tough games after that, I'm a bit worried now 

Tend to agree, the competition is extremely even this year there is no easy game and really for us to have almost a third of our starting 18 out is a real concern.  Also worried about Max Gawn, his tap work is good but his marking has been poor, hoping he can get his touch back this week after 2 games back.

Hopefully we can at least get our forward line back this week with Watts, Garlett and Hogan

[Lucifers Hero 37,524]

The obvious statement is if we win enough games we will make the 8!

But, how quickly our injured players get back will determine that.  So we may need some luck from the teams in the pack also trying to make the 8.     

The 'pack' is teams in spots 4 to 11.  (Rich, Port, Demons, WCE, StK. Syd. WB, Ess.)  5 spots up for grabs!  The results of their 8-point games will be critical.  They look like this:

• Rich: StK, StK.  (will make the 8).
• Port: WCE, Demons, StK, WB. (will make the 8 because their % is so good).
• Demons: Port, StK. (We need to beat all the bottom teams but our extra win and % on the 'pack' should get us there.)
• WCE:  Port, StK.  (will make probably make the 8 as have 4 games vs bottom of the ladder sides)
• StK: Rich, Ess, Syd, Port, WCE, Demons, Rich (will not make it as inferior % and too many 8-pt games).
• Syd: StK.  (will win enough to make the 8)
• WB:  Ess, Port.  (Need to win extra games to offset poor %)
• Ess: StK, WB (a long shot - won't make the 8)

My 'definites' are Rich, Port, Sydney. 

My 'outs' are Ess and Stk.   

That leaves Demons, WB, WCE fighting for the last 2 spots.  WB are a game and % behind Demons and WCE so I reckon they will miss.

So with a bit of luck I am still optimistic of Demons making the 8! 

Now back to thinking one week at a time!

Edited July 3, 2017 by Lucifer's Hero

[beelzebub 22,708]

By my reckoning we need 4 more wins to remain in 8. % should hold up.

Hang on, gunna get really bumpy here on in 

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

Injuries are really going to hurt, I would be shocked if we beat Carlton as their midfield will completely dominate ours.

[The heart beats true 16,643]

30 minutes ago, Clint Bizkit said:

Injuries are really going to hurt, I would be shocked if we beat Carlton as their midfield will completely dominate ours.

Agreed. Carlton have one strength, and unfortunately it's our biggest weakness right now. 

We need some forwards back with pace and energy to work their butts off and hold the ball forward to have any chance. 

[Dr. Gonzo 22,786]

On 01/07/2017 at 7:04 PM, Petraccattack said:

Carlton a huge danger game. They will beat us unless we get a couple of Watts, Garlett and Hogan back.

 

Agreed they've been very good this year beating GWS and pushing the Crows. They have a great structure and are well coaches, I think we should be going in underdogs unless we have a couple of players coming back in.

[DistrACTION Jackson 6,869]

I have run the ladder predictor with us winning 1 of our next 5 and then the last 3 games and we scrapped into 8th on percentage.

Gives me confidence we still have a shot even if we struggle in this next patch with all our injuries.

If we somehow beat Carlton this weekend I will be very confident we will make finals. Lose and it will be tough.

[Diamond_Jim 12,097]

Not sure why all the doom and gloom.

1. Beat Carlton ... ok we have injuries but with Hogan and Garlett back and a strong game plan that should be doable. The key here is the game plan. Carlton have shown they know how to shut teams down (even the Giants fell prey to their counter punch style)... up to the coaching staff to work up a plan to suit and for the players to execute.

2. Then we have Adelaide and Port.. win one and its a bonus

3. Next game ... four weeks time is against North .... should have at least a few more players back by then and is a must win.

4. Giants the following week .... who knows but I'll live with a loss.

5. Okay then comes the run home (Round 20) for which all players should be back. Saints, Lions and Collingwood. If we cannot win those three we don;t deserve to play finals.

So the key is beat... Carlton and North ... have a good run home and that's 13 wins. Win an extra against any of the three better teams and who knows.

Remember Richmond play St Kilda twice so they have two double points games.

And from our last five we have lost once to the Swans which love them or hate them are the best team going around at present.

 

Edited July 3, 2017 by Diamond_Jim

[bandicoot 1,395]

On 01/07/2017 at 8:49 AM, brendan said:

Does anyone think we might struggle to make finals now with all our injuries, Carlton will need to be a must win if we lose have some tough games after that, I'm a bit worried now 

Only need to win another 4 from 8.  Carlton is a must... Brisbane, Collingwood and north should be wins.

Saints, GWS, Adelaide and port should yield at least 1 win.. 

[beelzebub 22,708]

The reality is every game here on is a danger game. 

Every game takes on a 'must win' component. That's not to be MFCSS  just acknowledging how perilous the games are now. The first teams to lose traction will find it hard to regain it.

Might get away with a slip...but fall over.....night night rover 

[PaulRB 6,099]

Best guess from what I can gleen...

 

Round 16 Sunday, July 9 - Carlton Vs Melbourne - MCG 3:20pm A

• Players likely to be back - Garlett, Hogan, Joel Smith

Round 17 Saturday, July 15 - Melbourne Vs Adelaide Crows - TIO 7:10pm H

• Players likely to be back - Watts, Tyson?

Round 18 Saturday, July 22 - Melbourne Vs Port Adelaide - MCG 2:10pm H

• Players likely to be back - Salem

Round 19 Saturday, July 29 - North Melbourne Vs Melbourne - BA 1:45pm A

Round 20 Saturday, August 05 - GWS Vs Giants Melbourne - UNSW 1:45pm A

• Players likely to be back - Viney?, Jones, Brayshaw

Round 21 Sunday, August 13 - Melbourne Vs St Kilda - MCG 1:10pm H

• Players likely to be back - Bugg

Round 22 Sunday, August 20 - Melbourne Vs Brisbane Lions - MCG 1:10pm H

Round 23 Sunday, August 27 - Collingwood Melbourne - MCG 12:00am A

Edited July 3, 2017 by PaulRB

[Diamond_Jim 12,097]

13 minutes ago, PaulRB said:

Best guess from what I can gleen...

 

Round 16 Sunday, July 9 - Carlton Vs Melbourne - MCG 3:20pm A

• Players likely to be back - Garlett, Hogan, Joel Smith

Round 17 Saturday, July 15 - Melbourne Vs Adelaide Crows - TIO 7:10pm H

• Players likely to be back - Watts, Tyson?

Round 18 Saturday, July 22 - Melbourne Vs Port Adelaide - MCG 2:10pm H

• Players likely to be back - Salem

Round 19 Saturday, July 29 - North Melbourne Vs Melbourne - BA 1:45pm A

Round 20 Saturday, August 05 - GWS Vs Giants Melbourne - UNSW 1:45pm A

• Players likely to be back - Viney?, Jones, Brayshaw

Round 21 Sunday, August 13 - Melbourne Vs St Kilda - MCG 1:10pm H

• Players likely to be back - Bugg

Round 22 Sunday, August 20 - Melbourne Vs Brisbane Lions - MCG 1:10pm H

Round 23 Sunday, August 27 - Collingwood Melbourne - MCG 12:00am A

Great Post ... so beat Carlton and life is good for the moment.

FWIIW I would have Watts and Tyson on a plane to Darwin now so they can do rehab and acclimatize in advance of the rest of the team. Probably don't have the budget but it is the smart move.

I understand why you have put Brayshaw in but it may just be that bridge too far for this season. (Like the sentiment though).

Of course the bogey man is "more injuries."

Edited July 3, 2017 by Diamond_Jim

[SaberFang 7,141]

23 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

I understand why you have put Brayshaw in but it may just be that bridge too far for this season. (Like the sentiment though).

Agreed, Brayshaw won't play this season.

He's out indefinitely and match committee won't select him for seniors unless he strings together an uninterrupted month in the VFL.

[beelzebub 22,708]

....and if we don't beat Carlton the road gets steeper...etc etc

Blues building up steam....like we were 2-3  weeks back ( remember the good ol days ) ...  whilst we trip over our boots (sts)

Simon the Conjurer has his work cut out.

 

[DubDee 21,917]

we need 4 more wins and play all bottom 4 teams. So... whats the problem???

I know the Blues will be tough, but this is where Lewis and Vince etc earn their money.  We need to cope with adversity.

We don't deserve finals if we cannot beat bottom teams. Although going on 2017 form, we will beat the crows and GWS and lose to some bottom teams!

[beelzebub 22,708]

5 minutes ago, DubDee said:

we need 4 more wins and play all bottom 4 teams. So... whats the problem???

I know the Blues will be tough, but this is where Lewis and Vince etc earn their money.  We need to cope with adversity.

We don't deserve finals if we cannot beat bottom teams. Although going on 2017 form, we will beat the crows and GWS and lose to some bottom teams!

in theory...tis all a cinch 

Reality is...it's a mad mad mad mad season 

So ...ah....how's everyone's tipping going this season ??? 

We're playing a new style of game .....

called  Patch-UP Footy !!  

[deelete my account 1,194]

30 minutes ago, SaberFang said:

Agreed, Brayshaw won't play this season.

He's out indefinitely and match committee won't select him for seniors unless he strings together an uninterrupted month in the VFL.

I think it was AFL Tonight that had a small segment of Gus in a helmet and said he was eyeing a July 27th Return and was doing extra neck stretch exercises that rugby players do and had been meeting with Nathan Burke. Perhaps he is eyeing a 2 or 3 game VFL return over the next month? Maybe Brayshaw returning and backing himself could be just the remedy for our depth issues if injuries continue. His most recent concussion was because of another players reckless off the ball actions and also because he hadn't embarked on his current strength conditioning until the past month.

Edited July 3, 2017 by DominatrixTyson

[SaberFang 7,141]

4 minutes ago, DominatrixTyson said:

I think AFL Tonight had a small cut of Gus in a helmet and said he was eyeing a July 27th Return and was doing extra neck stretch exercises that rugby players do. Perhaps he is eyeing a VFL return in a few weeks?

That's a VFL return around Round 19. I still think the footy department will be overly cautious on Brayshaw (and so they should) before considering him for seniors.

Sadly I think the stupid VFL fixturing will make it difficult for him to string together enough games to be considered.

[Pates 9,554]

I'm really hoping the extended break this week will give the coaches and the players a chance to breath and regroup. As many have said, Carlton this week will be a very tough start but belief is huge for us, the midfield looks like it will struggle so it will be on our structures and how we reload from the back. 

I will also say this, it's not the first time a team will come into a game with serious injury issues, I'm backing Goodwin to be able to get the players up for this. He did incredibly well when faced with the challenge of no ruckman. 

[pinkshark 938]

Im always a one week at time guy.  Looking forward, ladder predictors etc etc - ridiculous waste of time.

With our current injury list, and some of those being Watts (one of our most influential and important players), Garlett, Jones (see Watts), Salem and Viney (see Watts) - actually, bugger it...

We are in big strife.... 

[Sir Why You Little 35,320]

3 minutes ago, pinkshark said:

Im always a one week at time guy.  Looking forward, ladder predictors etc etc - ridiculous waste of time.

With our current injury list, and some of those being Watts (one of our most influential and important players), Garlett, Jones (see Watts), Salem and Viney (see Watts) - actually, bugger it...

We are in big strife.... 

Sadly i agree with you....

[pinkshark 938]

1 minute ago, Sir Why You Little said:

Sadly i agree with you....

yeah but nothing to be sad about.  Thats footy.  We have talent.  we are not a laughing stock anymore.  Seemingly well coached.  Future 'should' be alright.  Tough comp.  Mind you though, I'm happy to be pleasantly surprised if we show resilience and competitiveness in the next few weeks.  But again...tough comp.  

Go Dees.  

[Sir Why You Little 35,320]

22 minutes ago, pinkshark said:

yeah but nothing to be sad about.  Thats footy.  We have talent.  we are not a laughing stock anymore.  Seemingly well coached.  Future 'should' be alright.  Tough comp.  Mind you though, I'm happy to be pleasantly surprised if we show resilience and competitiveness in the next few weeks.  But again...tough comp.  

Go Dees.  

I am not infering sympathy. It is just so tough when so many injuries happen at the one time. 

Careers could be made though. 

[beelzebub 22,708]

9 minutes ago, Sir Why You Little said:

 

Careers could be made though. 

? hmmm ... well ?

[Diamond_Jim 12,097]

I can understand the one week at a time line but if we can get beyond Carlton the weeks look brighter.

Can feel the September grass growing ...

August .... named after the great Augustus... first emperor of Rome and a very smart cookie ... will be our month !!