French presidential elections

[Macca 16,955]

It will be interesting to see how Marine Le Pen fares in the current climate (Le Pen is the leader (President) of the National Front political party in France)

Anyway, here's a couple of up-to-the-minute podcasts about her chances ...

Up First 21/4/2017 (NPR)

The Daily 21/4/2017 (NY Times)

 

 

Edited April 24, 2017 by Macca

[bing181 9,209]

On 4/21/2017 at 1:40 PM, Macca said:

Off topic but no point starting another thread about the French Presidential elections (which begins on Sunday) ... it will be interesting to see how Marine Le Pen fares in the current climate (Le Pen is the leader (President) of the National Front political party in France)

She'll do about as well as predicted. Her base/support has hardly moved for 3 or more years, though given most of her support is a disenfranchised working glass, she has lost some to the hard left candidate Melanchon. The FN have no wider base, and don't control a single elected body above a few town halls: so, no Département, no Region, and a measly 2 seats out of nearly 600 in the National Assembly (federal lower house). Apart from her, the FN has no profile and no established or recognised figures, and they're also seen as being woefully incompetent.

Yes, she represents the views of a substantial minority, in the same way as Pauline Hanson does. But in the second round, you have to get above 50% of the vote, and even the most optimistic polls have her falling way, way short of that. The closest she would run would be with Fillon, because left and centrist voters would have trouble stomaching either of them, but even with Fillon it's almost impossible to imagine she'd get the numbers.

Will know more tonight.

[Macca 16,955]

2 minutes ago, bing181 said:

She'll do about as well as predicted. Her base/support has hardly moved for 3 or more years, though given most of her support is a disenfranchised working glass, she has lost some to the hard left candidate Melanchon. The FN have no wider base, and don't control a single elected body above a few town halls: so, no Département, no Region, and a measly 2 seats out of nearly 600 in the National Assembly (federal lower house). Apart from her, the FN has no profile and no established or recognised figures, and they're also seen as being woefully incompetent.

Yes, she represents the views of a substantial minority, in the same way as Pauline Hanson does. But in the second round, you have to get above 50% of the vote, and even the most optimistic polls have her falling way, way short of that. The closest she would run would be with Fillon, because left and centrist voters would have trouble stomaching either of them, but even with Fillon it's almost impossible to imagine she'd get the numbers.

Will know more tonight.

Yeah,  I was assuming that that would probably happen but was interested to see how many primary votes a candidate like Marine Le Pen does actually receive ... and also, what might happen if Marine made it to the last 2 candidates.  The following article from CNN explains things better ...

Win or lose, Marine Le Pen is a nightmare for the EU

Quote

If Le Pen is ultimately thwarted -- either this weekend or next month -- the political establishment in Brussels will be able to breathe a sigh of relief. However, it's becoming increasingly clear that whether Le Pen wins power or not, the success of her campaign and the flames it has fanned will ensure that any celebrations are short-lived.

 

[bing181 9,209]

Just now, Macca said:

Yeah,  I was assuming that that would probably happen but was interested to see how many primary votes a candidate like Marine Le Pen does actually receive ... and also, what might happen if Marine made it to the last 2 candidates.  The following article from CNN explains things better ...

Win or lose, Marine Le Pen is a nightmare for the EU

It's hard to know where the "success of her campaign" idea comes from. She's currently polling lower than she did a few years back, and support for the FN, as shown by actual votes in actual elections (local government, regions etc.) consistently fails to crack +/- 25%. There's no great recent movement towards the FN. That happened, such as it did, 5 or so years back when she took over the leadership. The one big change is the collapse of the two main left/right parties, which tends to show her/the FN in favourable light, but if you look at what support she actually has, there's not much change. The shootings on Thursday might give her a point or two extra, but even there, hard to see things shifting all that much.

Also, FWIW, pretty well the same article could be written about the rise of Melanchon/the hard left.

[Macca 16,955]

17 minutes ago, bing181 said:

It's hard to know where the "success of her campaign" idea comes from. She's currently polling lower than she did a few years back, and support for the FN, as shown by actual votes in actual elections (local government, regions etc.) consistently fails to crack +/- 25%. There's no great recent movement towards the FN. That happened, such as it did, 5 or so years back when she took over the leadership. The one big change is the collapse of the two main left/right parties, which tends to show her/the FN in favourable light, but if you look at what support she actually has, there's not much change. The shootings on Thursday might give her a point or two extra, but even there, hard to see things shifting all that much.

Also, FWIW, pretty well the same article could be written about the rise of Melanchon/the hard left.

It might also be a case where she (as an individual candidate) fares much better than the party she represents.  Polls can tricky to read as we all found out with the Trump victory.  The 'rust-belt' only became a real talking point on election day and after the election with Trump. 

This time around there are no electoral college votes at stake but Le Pen needs to finish 2nd or better to get into the final vote (May 7) ... it might be a case of her vote count being solid enough to gain 2nd place with the winner being a candidate that doesn't appeal to the majority of French voters.  And that's when it can get interesting.

Edited April 23, 2017 by Macca

[bing181 9,209]

Just to say as well (sorry, rabbiting on here), support for the EU has swung back the other way since Brexit became a reality. Everyone here is coming to understand the reality of what "being out on your own" actually means, and all recent polls have the French fairly solidly pro-EU (though it does vary depending on what you're actually talking about, e.g. agriculture), and very solidly pro-Euro. There's also a sense that with the UK out, France becomes an even more major player in the EU, which is seen as a positive and giving France more control/influence.

There's a big difference between "we don't like everything you do" and "we want out", that sometimes these articles fail to pick up on, and the French are very good at bitching.

[bing181 9,209]

1 minute ago, Macca said:

It might also be a case where she (as an individual candidate) fares much better than the party she represents.  Polls can tricky to read as we all found out with the Trump victory.  The 'rust-belt' only became a real talking point during and after the event with Trump. 

This time around there are no electoral college votes at stake but she needs to finish 2nd or better to get into the final vote (May 7) ... it might be a case of her vote count being solid enough to gain 2nd place with the winner being a candidate that doesn't appeal to the majority of French voters.  And that's when it can get interesting.

I don't know that polls are all that tricky if you look at what they're actually polling and the results. Even in the US election, there was very little that was outside the margin of error. But the way the polls are done here is apparently quite different to in the US (they use different statistical techniques ... but don't quote me).

Also, as Nate Silver pointed out, there's a bit difference between polls being out when candidates are running within 5% of each other, to when the differences are 10 - 20% or more.

You're right though, she as a candidate does better than her party - but that's not really saying much.

[Macca 16,955]

2 hours ago, bing181 said:

I don't know that polls are all that tricky if you look at what they're actually polling and the results. Even in the US election, there was very little that was outside the margin of error. But the way the polls are done here is apparently quite different to in the US (they use different statistical techniques ... but don't quote me).

Also, as Nate Silver pointed out, there's a bit difference between polls being out when candidates are running within 5% of each other, to when the differences are 10 - 20% or more.

You're right though, she as a candidate does better than her party - but that's not really saying much.

Well, I was all over the polls during the US election and many/most of the news outlets were proclaiming a Hillary victory because of the polls ... the podcasts that Silver is associated with were as well.  I listened to nearly all of them.

Many of the staunch Democrats are still in shock ... they didn't see a loss coming.  What I've learned from it all are that polls are dicey when it comes to immigration and matters of race.  Some/many people hide their true intentions. 

If Le Pen gets into the final 2 with the  far-left candidate (Jean-Luc Mélenchon) as her opponent, do the majority of the French voters then vote for a candidate from the far-left? 

By the way, I don't have a dog in the fight as I never fully buy into party politics from any side ... my interest is in the process and the outcome.

Edited April 23, 2017 by Macca

[bing181 9,209]

4 hours ago, Macca said:

If Le Pen gets into the final 2 with the  far-left candidate (Jean-Luc Mélenchon) as her opponent, do the majority of the French voters then vote for a candidate from the far-left? 

Yes, polls show Mélenchon would comfortably beat her. "Far-left" isn't the dirty word here that it is in some/many countries, and there are still towns with openly communist mayors. There are a few candidates that are to the left of Mélenchon as well, so while he's certainly left, he could just about still find a place in the Labour Party.

Polls - well, different discussion. Most US polls were within their range of error. Statistics is never meant to be about certainties. The trouble is, that kind of ambiguity isn't all that useful for us, so we join the dots. Even when they aren't really there.

[bing181 9,209]

Polls were accurate, outcomes within 1% it seems.

All over bar the shouting. Right across the political spectrum, political figures (including Fillon) are calling to vote Macron. LePen's percentage might go up a little from a few out on the margins, helped along by some abstentions, but she's light years away from 50%.

[Wrecker45 3,378]

Anyone who doesn't vote for the first female French President must be sexist. 

[daisycutter 29,610]

1 hour ago, Wrecker45 said:

Anyone who doesn't vote for the first female French President must be sexist. 

misogynist surely, wrecker?

[Diamond_Jim 12,566]

Much easier to predict with single electorate system. The result was predicted within a minute of polls closing and Francois Fillon was conceding within half an hour.

The interesting thing is that neither of the run off candidates have formal party backing. The French political system has similarities to the US system and it is difficult to pursue an agenda unless you have support in the equivalent to the US Congress. The role of the Prime Minister in France is particularly tricky if he/she is from a different party to the President. 

Have you guys watched Spin? It is a fantastic show based on spin doctors and French politics.

[bing181 9,209]

2 hours ago, Diamond_Jim said:

The role of the Prime Minister in France is particularly tricky if he/she is from a different party to the President. 

Yes, but the PM is nominated by the President, not elected from within a party. The PM would need to come from the majority party on the floor of the house, but there's some elbow room there. The cabinet ministers are also directly nominated by the President, but they don't need to necessarily come from the party in the majority - Macron himself is an example.

Presumably the Republicans (right) are going to get a majority in the upcoming Legislative elections (June), and that's what Macron will have to deal with. However, there are a big slab of Republicans who are centrist (also PS), so you'd expect he'll be able to push through most of his program.

[Macca 16,955]

Le Pen disassociates herself (somewhat) from the National Front party but will that make much difference to the result?  As it stands, Le Pen is miles behind Macron and there's too much ground to make up ... 37% to 63% is way too big a gap.  But who am I to judge? ha ha

French election: Le Pen says, 'I am not the candidate of the National Front'

[Biffen 12,940]

Le Pen will win unless France decides to commit suicide .

I'm disregarding the polls on this one and hoping for common sense from the French,which isn't that common over there .

[jackaub 1,402]

I would like to know who is funding Macron and his campaign

Came from nowhere isnt part of mainstream just appeared

I fear he is part of the wide web of external influence ever present in the world

We shall seesoon because Le Pen has no chance in the second round

[Biffen 12,940]

17 hours ago, jackaub said:

I would like to know who is funding Macron and his campaign

Came from nowhere isnt part of mainstream just appeared

I fear he is part of the wide web of external influence ever present in the world

We shall seesoon because Le Pen has no chance in the second round

He is repulsive .

He married his mother.

Are you sure about the 2nd round?

Unable to label Le Pen a feminist, they are rallying behind Macron for marrying the old bag.Sickening.

They can chose the mummy lover or the Iron lady .

Edited May 4, 2017 by Biffen

[jackaub 1,402]

The d'Immigres will ensure that Le Pen doesnt win, they are frightened  of re export. In fact the only group more frightened of a Le pen  victory are the European bankers and their owners

the fix is well and truely in!

[Biffen 12,940]

On 05/05/2017 at 8:35 AM, jackaub said:

The d'Immigres will ensure that Le Pen doesnt win, they are frightened  of re export. In fact the only group more frightened of a Le pen  victory are the European bankers and their owners

the fix is well and truely in!

The perverted granny grabbing banker got in.

What a country of hoares.

Decades of rampant social stupidity have made it fairly impossible to run the country.

They are the laziest morons I've met, outside of the italians.

Edited May 11, 2017 by Biffen

[bing181 9,209]

Not sure what's worse, the ignorance or the misogyny.

[Biffen 12,940]

On 10/05/2017 at 9:12 AM, bing181 said:

Not sure what's worse, the ignorance or the misogyny.

She would have been charged and made a registered sex offender for life if she did that here.

Also I question his sanity on his choice of partner as well.

Nothing to do with misogyny. 

Common sense and human biology are more key you would think.

[Biffen 12,940]

On 04/05/2017 at 2:40 PM, jackaub said:

I would like to know who is funding Macron and his campaign

Came from nowhere isnt part of mainstream just appeared

I fear he is part of the wide web of external influence ever present in the world

We shall seesoon because Le Pen has no chance in the second round

Soros is certain to be behind him.

[bing181 9,209]

5 hours ago, Biffen said:

Soros is certain to be behind him.

You're still just guessing. Macron's campaign finance figures are available online, as are the regulations for campaign financing, overseen by an electoral commission. If you'd like to back up your claims the information is available.

On the other hand, we know for a fact that Le Pen and the FN have had substantial loans from Russia.

In any case the amounts we're talking about for France wouldn't even get you a senate seat in the US, yet alone a presidency, and are also far below amounts for an Australian federal election (though of course, it's a different system).

[Biffen 12,940]

8 hours ago, bing181 said:

You're still just guessing. Macron's campaign finance figures are available online, as are the regulations for campaign financing, overseen by an electoral commission. If you'd like to back up your claims the information is available.

On the other hand, we know for a fact that Le Pen and the FN have had substantial loans from Russia.

In any case the amounts we're talking about for France wouldn't even get you a senate seat in the US, yet alone a presidency, and are also far below amounts for an Australian federal election (though of course, it's a different system).

Macron might have financed his campaign from "Maman's" purse when she wasn't looking.

Le Pen may well have received funding from Russians.

Putin wants some control over the Muslim population in Europe so they don't  slaughter the people who belong there.

The French aren't worried about that- but they have always been weak willed and pathetic.

Meanwhile Turkey is threatening to open the floodgates,which is an act of war in itself ,but some don't see it .

Brrexit is the smartest thing GB has done since D-day.