10 hours ago, DeeSpencer said:

Comparing us v them is pretty difficult because there's probably more differences than similarities. 

So if you just study St Kilda's trajectory without us they have a strong case for the 8.

If you break down their best 22 you can see they have a really even side. 

Backline - 7
Talls - Carlisle fills a huge hole. Dempster (Or N Brown), Roberton
Smalls - Geary, Savage, Webster, Montagna have played a lot together. That might not be a great backline but it's a reliable 7 without a weakness. Webster's the youngest of the lot and has played 50 games. They'll have to replace Montagna and Dempster but at the moment they play at a high level.

Midfield - 8
Inside: Steven is a gun. Ross is underrated. Armitage, Dunstan will now get pressure from handy depth imports in Steele and Stevens. Again, solid. Freeman is a wildcard as well.
Outside; Riewoldt on a wing is a beast. Newnes is handy.
Ruck - Hickey is an above average ruck, Bruce does enough as a back up. Plus they have some ok depth options
Utility - Gilbert is someone they probably have to pension off but he works really hard covering the ground
 

you rate their midfield an 8? Agree on Steven but no other A graders in my opinion and a lot of them are inside mids or runners without much skill x factor. id rate it a 6 at best

I think their midfield will hold them back, unless guys like Billings move in there and develop

i didnt particularly rate the Saints last year  and they finished above us.  For mine this goes to a few things...we fluffed games we ought not have and somehow they managed a few wins they lucked out a bit on. One being us.

I still dont rate them that highly. Much weighting on Carlisle.  he's not that good.  Their midfield a 6 at best

Theyll be lucky to make 8 this year

28 minutes ago, Uncle Fester said:

Hype is irrelevant. You do or you don't, and all the newspapers hacks and mug punters won't change any of that. 40 people on both lists, with similar ceilings, and what will separate the men from the goats is if they go out and do, or if they believe all they have to do is show up.

Which one of us believes and which one of us expects?

Or maybe both are the first, or both are the latter...

September will tell, not the musings here or any other place.

 

They also make plans against us, which gives them the confidence to expect and then to deliver. Especially because they know that we won't counter-plan.

We don't like being 'the hunted' (favoured to win), because when the 'hunter' makes a plan to tie us up & then follows it really well, we've just watched it happen & not done anything about it. And as we improve, more teams will plan against us, so we must get better at it.

Remember Port a few years ago who had great success with attacking off half back? As soon as teams sussed out how to plan against this tactic, their effectiveness dropped off and they haven't really been able to get it back. That will be us unless we can work out how to still be effective when Gawn, Hogan & Viney are nullified.

At the moment their midfield isn't good enough but they will most likely beat us on a fast Etihad surface.

Their forward line and backline is very good.

They wont beat us this year. We've got this

Our game day strategems will be a tad better this year ...just saying.

Yes...their backline is fairly sound... we have Hogan......we have Hogan whos going to be fed by the likes of Lewis and and new level of midfield.

St Kilda will be the first and possibly last team caught off guard !!

Hunt is going to love a ground like etihad.

46 minutes ago, beelzebub said:

i didnt particularly rate the Saints last year  and they finished above us.  For mine this goes to a few things...we fluffed games we ought not have and somehow they managed a few wins they lucked out a bit on. One being us.

I still dont rate them that highly. Much weighting on Carlisle.  he's not that good.  Their midfield a 6 at best

Theyll be lucky to make 8 this year

They beat us twice due to one factor...kicking. yes they had some extra pace but we are not as good a kicking side and that kills us at Etihad.

3 minutes ago, Bay Riffin said:

They beat us twice due to one factor...kicking. yes they had some extra pace but we are not as good a kicking side and that kills us at Etihad.

The main factor in my mind was Roos treating the fixtures like extended training sessions and not budging an inch from the playing-style we were seeking to ingrain. 

Our zoning defence permitted their forwards to be 30m+ in the clear at The Darklands last year. They played us like a guitar. Watching Roo and the others waltz into the 50 with little direct pressure made me blow a phoofa valve and took 10 years off my life in one afternoon.

18 minutes ago, Bay Riffin said:

They beat us twice due to one factor...kicking. yes they had some extra pace but we are not as good a kicking side and that kills us at Etihad.

We WILL be a better kicking side in 2017. Its been a focus at training. Moving the ball to effect. Taking best option. Moving ball quickly. 

It's something we lacked badly in our bag of tricks. Something the opposition always exploited.

No more

4 minutes ago, Skuit said:

The main factor in my mind was Roos treating the fixtures like extended training sessions and not budging an inch from the playing-style we were seeking to ingrain. 

I agree. Game day could often resemble a dissection in slow motion. Loved Roos but I didn't rate him as game day strategist. I did like watching us in last years preseason. We moved and reacted ( on field and in box ) very differently. No accident there.

Same lad back in charge

This is going to get interesting.

I don't really care whether the 'Aints are being hyped or not.  In the wash up, the only thing that will matter is how any team performs in season 2017 and nothing that was written or spoken prior to that will make any difference at all.  I like to think that we now have one of the better mid-fields in the competition and that our forward and back lines are looking very strong, but I'm sure that every supporter of every other team is thinking exactly the same thing about their teams prospects.

Having said that, come round one, I hope we tear 'em a new one!

St Kilda are a good honest average team. A few teams will go past them in 2017. We being one of them. Some go up...they go down.

Carlisle has had interupted Preseason and will start behind .

?? Marks over him for mine.

Not too many putting hands up to take over mantle of their "older " brigade.

There will be two types of losses for the Aints in 17. Either they are simply out gunned...or beaten in the 4th as they tire.

When I participate in the annual footy tipping competitions, I will always pick with head and not heart.  

When I do my tips for Round 1 2017, I will be picking St Kilda, and will do so with a great deal of confidence.  They just continue to matchup better against us.  Does this make them a better side than us?  I don't know.

 

3 minutes ago, Akum said:

They also make plans against us, which gives them the confidence to expect and then to deliver. Especially because they know that we won't counter-plan.

We don't like being 'the hunted' (favoured to win), because when the 'hunter' makes a plan to tie us up & then follows it really well, we've just watched it happen & not done anything about it. And as we improve, more teams will plan against us, so we must get better at it.

Remember Port a few years ago who had great success with attacking off half back? As soon as teams sussed out how to plan against this tactic, their effectiveness dropped off and they haven't really been able to get it back. That will be us unless we can work out how to still be effective when Gawn, Hogan & Viney are nullified.

Agree... somewhat... Plans get you so far... maybe... maybe a 20% drop on a team if they aren't ready for it (but I think I'm being generous). What matters more than anything is good cattle that believe that whatever the coach says is the word of God, and believes they have the talent to do whatever he asks.

Probably 70% of football is the talent - without that you can have Jesus coach and you'll be lucky to win 4 games. 20% is coaching, selection, tactics... maybe even media propaganda. The last 10% is belief. In you. In your teammates, In your coach, in your club. That last bit is the one that wins you the close ones. Good teams have it. Poor teams don't. Find a way to bottle that and you'll be a billionaire.

 

So with talent and belief you'll win a lot more than you lose. The coach is just the one to put on the icing and make a ten point win into a 70 point win.

44 minutes ago, Moonshadow said:

Our zoning defence permitted their forwards to be 30m+ in the clear at The Darklands last year. They played us like a guitar. Watching Roo and the others waltz into the 50 with little direct pressure made me blow a phoofa valve and took 10 years off my life in one afternoon.

Yes Mooney it took me 3 weeks to recover my voice after shouting instructions in vain all afternoon

We were dissected by a game plan and did FA to  counter it. Those who suggested it was a part of Roos'training plan are on the money

we will have far more of a plan B about our games in future  ( it all those skills and training drills that will be called upon according to directives on the day )

3 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

The reason for the hype is that they're building a ripper list that will be top 4 as early this year.

If they can overcome their interstate hoodoo and go 3-3, they will finish top 4. Unlike the Dees, they actually use their home-ground to advantage winning 9 of their last 12 at Etihad, meanwhile we can't even beat rubbish sides like Carlton and Essendon on our home turf. To add insult, the Saints won 3 from 3 at the G.

Unlike us, they can actually beat the sides below them when they're heavy favourites. We on the other hand lose to sides that either have 11 of their best players suspended or face a team on an 11 game losing steak that had packed up for the year.

As much I don't like it, they will play finals before us I fear.

 

 

 

Some very good points there BBP

Those aspects of our performance must change for us to be a serious contender.

51 minutes ago, beelzebub said:

I agree. Game day could often resemble a dissection in slow motion. Loved Roos but I didn't rate him as game day strategist. I did like watching us in last years preseason. We moved and reacted ( on field and in box ) very differently. No accident there.

Same lad back in charge

This is going to get interesting.

Maybe, just maybe, he was prepared to sacrifice short term pain for longer term gain?   After all, he didn't have a reputation to build or a contract to defend.

2 hours ago, DubDee said:

you rate their midfield an 8? Agree on Steven but no other A graders in my opinion and a lot of them are inside mids or runners without much skill x factor. id rate it a 6 at best

I think their midfield will hold them back, unless guys like Billings move in there and develop

DeeSpencer was referring to the 8 players in the midfield (and the 7 forward and 7 in defence).

Still a couple of young gun midfielders shy of a side that can challenge, but they should be able to acquire them in this year's draft.

They should be a direct competitor for a top four spot in the coming years. Building nicely imo. That said, I wouldn't cast aside the potential impact of losing of Montagna, Riewoldt and co. It's a test that still needs to be passed.

Edited February 10, 20178 yr by P-man

1 hour ago, Moonshadow said:

Our zoning defence permitted their forwards to be 30m+ in the clear at The Darklands last year. They played us like a guitar. Watching Roo and the others waltz into the 50 with little direct pressure made me blow a phoofa valve and took 10 years off my life in one afternoon.

The worst part is we allowed them to do it twice.

8 minutes ago, P-man said:

Still a couple of young gun midfielders shy of a side that can challenge, but they should be able to acquire them in this year's draft.

They should be a direct competitor for a top four spot in the coming years. Building nicely imo. That said, I wouldn't cast aside the potential impact of losing of Montagna, Riewoldt and co. It's a test that still needs to be passed.

Just asking - why do you think that they, as opposed to anyone else, should be able to pick up two gun mids in this year's draft?  Couldn't any team with drafting skills, and luck?

20 minutes ago, monoccular said:

 

Maybe, just maybe, he was prepared to sacrifice short term pain for longer term gain?   After all, he didn't have a reputation to build or a contract to defend.

This is an oft mooted rationale.

Personally i don't see what stagnating your ability to battle on game day accomplishes other than losing .

1 hour ago, Bay Riffin said:

They beat us twice due to one factor...kicking. yes they had some extra pace but we are not as good a kicking side and that kills us at Etihad.

The reason that they kicked it better than us is because they were rarely under pressure when they turned it over, and had players in acres of space out the back.  The prime reason they beat us in both games last year wasn't their kicking, it was their exceptional pressure.  I reckon Richo said to his men both times  "if you harass and pressure them like mad, they'll cough it up with 1m handballs to no one, or blast it on the boot and we'll zone off and turn it over".  We never adapted to it.  In both games we started quite well but when they really put the heat on, we couldn't handle it, and we struggled to get the ball back due to their pace and our press being far too high.   The other thing they have is a decent ruckman who knows how to nullify Maxy - Hickey isn't a star but he's mobile, smart, and broke even with Max both times.  We didn't get as many of those dominant clearances that he so often provides.

I subscribed to the theory a couple of years back that they'd drop off when their old crop retires.  I'm not so sure now.  Montagna is still handy but not as critical as he once was, same for Gilbert.  They've drafted well in recent years, and now have some midfield depth with the likes of Koby Stevens and Jack Steele, who aren't first choice but handy second tier mids.  Of course they will miss Sir Nick but if McCartin can stay healthy, they have a very exciting forward set up with Bruce and Membrey and some very classy small forwards - Billings could be a genuine gun and Gresham looks the goods.  I wish we had one of that ilk up forward.

I do think that on our day, our midfield is better than theirs and can get a hold of them but round 1 will be really interesting to see what we've learnt from last year.  The excitement about the Saints is based on real evidence, they beat some good teams last year.  I'm just as confident in our own list build and can see both sides having a genuine rivalry over the next few years, although that is only possible if we actually start beating them in a game!! 

1 hour ago, monoccular said:

Just asking - why do you think that they, as opposed to anyone else, should be able to pick up two gun mids in this year's draft?  Couldn't any team with drafting skills, and luck?

Sure, but you stand a better chance the higher up you go. They acquired the Hawks' first round pick so have two first round picks going into the draft, both of which I would think will be used on mids.

Edited February 10, 20178 yr by P-man

Round 1 is the epitome of an '8 point game'.

 

They match up so well against us and - like others - I rate them very highly and can definitely understand why they're a near-consensus pick to make the finals this year; classic slow build approach by Richardson and their coaching dept.