Trading back into Round One or Top 10?

[DeeSpencer 24,952]

3 minutes ago, Mickey said:

I would be loathe to do this, considering the talent on offer next year compared to this. Only player I would like is English,  the midfielder who grew into a ruckman

I'm sure we heard last year that this years draft would be better than last years. It was a worry for me when we traded up but hasn't become reality. Seems like it happens most years. 

Unfortunately you can't trade during the draft because that would make it a lot easier. Wait until the pick you want is next in the draft order, make sure the kid you rate is still there and then do the swap.

[RalphiusMaximus 6,013]

If we really want more first round picks then trading Hogan is the way to do it.  Get Freo to pony up their first round picks from this year and next year for him.  Save ourselves the pain of a year spent wondering if he'll stay or go.  Be seen as decisive and pro-active in getting rid of a player before he can mess with the club or hold it to ransom for a better deal. 

Not only would we be getting a good pick this year, but Freo have to be good odds to finish below us again next year (even with a new forward or two), so we get what will probably be a top ten pick in a strong draft there as well. 

 

I would also like it noted that I in no way prefer this option.  Ideally Hogan announces tomorrow that he has signed a five year contract extension to stay with the Dees.  However if we're talking trade hypotheticals, he's the player who will attract the best deal and we know that Freo would jump at the chance. 

[Lampers 563]

The way to do this is not to trade an Alex Neal-Bullen because his market value is low, probably lower than his true value. To illustrate a point, if the club being confident Alex Neal-Bullen is good enough to be a senior contributor, they trade out someone he would be replacing in the 22.

That someone would have higher market value because they have exposed 22 form.

This is the key trading advantage of having strong development.

So if they think ANB is up to it and Oliver will come on, then who becomes expendable?

I can't come up with a name getting regular senior games that would attract a first round pick where we may have the depth already there to cover their loss, so I don't think it will happen. This is the downside of lack of development and depth in the 24-28 year old bracket.

Nathan Jones if he wasn't the captain and important culturally would be the sort though.

 

Edited September 15, 2016 by Lampers

[rjay 24,680]

1 hour ago, Lampers said:

The way to do this is not to trade an Alex Neal-Bullen because his market value is low, probably lower than his true value. To illustrate a point, if the club being confident Alex Neal-Bullen is good enough to be a senior contributor, they trade out someone he would be replacing in the 22.

That someone would have higher market value because they have exposed 22 form.

This is the key trading advantage of having strong development.

So if they think ANB is up to it and Oliver will come on, then who becomes expendable?

I can't come up with a name getting regular senior games that would attract a first round pick where we may have the depth already there to cover their loss, so I don't think it will happen. This is the downside of lack of development and depth in the 24-28 year old bracket.

Nathan Jones if he wasn't the captain and important culturally would be the sort though.

 

You are right of course & it's why we are not in a position to trade back into the first round this year unless Hogan goes (I would hope not) or we trade next years first round pick (doubtful).

We've already traded out or let go of our currency over the last few years in building this list.

It's going to be Hibbard, Melcham & development this year...maybe a late value pick & delisted free agent,

[FireInTheBennelly 4,061]

7 hours ago, rjay said:

You are right of course & it's why we are not in a position to trade back into the first round this year unless Hogan goes (I would hope not) or we trade next years first round pick (doubtful).

We've already traded out or let go of our currency over the last few years in building this list.

It's going to be Hibbard, Melcham & development this year...maybe a late value pick & delisted free agent,

Or we trade next years 2nd, 3rd and 4th round picks to GWS for one of their 1st rounders this year.

[old55 23,047]

20 minutes ago, FireInTheBelly said:

Or we trade next years 2nd, 3rd and 4th round picks to GWS for one of their 1st rounders this year.

I don't think GWS are going to be interested in picks 50 (273 points) and 70 (39 points) next year.  They will still have to have equivalent list vacancies to use them on Academy players and these picks aren't worth enough to be useful.

http://www.afl.com.au/staticfile/AFL Tenant/AFL/Files/biddingsystemfeedback.pdf

[FireInTheBennelly 4,061]

49 minutes ago, Fifty-5 said:

I don't think GWS are going to be interested in picks 50 (273 points) and 70 (39 points) next year.  They will still have to have equivalent list vacancies to use them on Academy players and these picks aren't worth enough to be useful.

http://www.afl.com.au/staticfile/AFL Tenant/AFL/Files/biddingsystemfeedback.pdf

I'm not sure where picks 50 and 70 came from, but if by some minor miracle we finished fourth next year the relevant picks would be 33, 51 and 69 wouldn't they? A combined points total of 871. I have no idea what they have coming through in the way of academy talent next year, but they could very well couple those picks up with their own picks for next year for a decent total that might save their 1st round pick.

As far as vacancies go, I'm not sure how they look through the crystal ball to know what list vacancies they'll have this time next year. That rule can't apply to future drafts as there's no way of knowing. No doubt as soon as a team exploits this the AFL will shut it down somehow, I'd just like to be the team that thinks outside the box, as per Mahoney's last few years.

I think this is the best way to get back into the 1st round this year (if that's what we wanted to do) without losing any of our talent. And if I was GWS (and they had serious academy talent coming through) I'd be doing everything possible now to stockpile picks for next year, considering they won't be able to do it next year due to the rule changes.

[old55 23,047]

6 hours ago, FireInTheBelly said:

I'm not sure where picks 50 and 70 came from, but if by some minor miracle we finished fourth next year the relevant picks would be 33, 51 and 69 wouldn't they? A combined points total of 871. I have no idea what they have coming through in the way of academy talent next year, but they could very well couple those picks up with their own picks for next year for a decent total that might save their 1st round pick.

As far as vacancies go, I'm not sure how they look through the crystal ball to know what list vacancies they'll have this time next year. That rule can't apply to future drafts as there's no way of knowing. No doubt as soon as a team exploits this the AFL will shut it down somehow, I'd just like to be the team that thinks outside the box, as per Mahoney's last few years.

I think this is the best way to get back into the 1st round this year (if that's what we wanted to do) without losing any of our talent. And if I was GWS (and they had serious academy talent coming through) I'd be doing everything possible now to stockpile picks for next year, considering they won't be able to do it next year due to the rule changes.

Of course it applies to future draft picks because they have to have sufficient vacancies next year to be able to use them.  If they are going to stockpile picks they need to have more value than 40 points.  Look at the picks they've stockpiled this year, they're not in the 40s to 60s.  Hopefully we make finals next year, at worst that's 11, 29, 47, 65 that's where my approximation of 50 and 70 comes from.

 

[Deecisive 1,709]

just wondering because the suns will have so many first round picks whether they would consider swapping one or more of those for a player like dunn, or others and our next years first round pick so that they spread the impact of having so many young first year players hit their side at once. This would give them another experienced player or two and give them another first round draft pick next year, so they wouldnt loose a whole lot on the deal.