Where we are heading

[Dr. Gonzo 22,682]

10 hours ago, Je Roos Salem said:

I understand the youth issue, it's good to see young guys get games, Hunt and Wagner have mostly deserved their spots, Dunn and Grimes have been the unlucky seniors. I guess O.Mac is the one guy who seems to stay in for seasoning, regardless of form.

I'm not convinced by that logic, maybe in the past I was, but I am convinced that if we don't have that improvement people will make excuses that 2018 is meant to be the year. Let's call it "Next year syndrome", a side effect of prolonged mediocrity.

Next year we definitely need to make finals.

Another thing that needs to be taken into account when looking at our improvement is our %.

2013 - 2 wins 50%

2014 - 4 wins 70%

2015 - 7 wins 77%

2016 (to date) - 6 wins 103%

Even if we only win another 2-3 games if we can maintain our % above say 90-95% (based on increased offense not a dour defensive game style) I think it will be another step forward, albeit a baby step. We have a tough run home but to date we've eradicated the 90-100 point losses which has been a hallmark of our failure over the last decade.

Overall we are improving arent we are aiming for sustainable improvement but it's not coming as quick as some (including myself) would like - but I am confident we're on the right track. There are comparisons to the Bailey-era & supporters suffering PTSD (or MFCSS/MSDS) won't believe it til they see it but there are differences to that team, not least of which is the type of players we have now compared to then.

Edited June 22, 2016 by Dr. Gonzo

[PaulRB 6,048]

2 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Next year we definitely need to make finals.

Another thing that needs to be taken into account when looking at our improvement is our %.

2013 - 2 wins 50%

2014 - 4 wins 70%

2015 - 7 wins 77%

2016 (to date) - 6 wins 103%

Even if we only win another 2-3 games if we can maintain our % above say 90-95% (based on increased offense not a dour defensive game style) I think it will be another step forward, albeit a baby step. We have a tough run home but to date we've eradicated the 90-100 point losses which has been a hallmark of our failure over the last decade.

Overall we are improving arent we are aiming for sustainable improvement but it's not coming as quick as some (including myself) would like - but I am confident we're on the right track. There are comparisons to the Bailey-era & supporters suffering PTSD (or MFCSS/MSDS) won't believe it til they see it but there are differences to that team, not least of which is the type of players we have now compared to then.

It would be further illumination of our progress if you add that the age and experience of our team has decreased over the past couple of years while maintaining the upward trajectory. This means that over 80% of our players are yet to have hit their prime as footballers physically nor played even 50 games. 

Maxy is on 52 games! 

[beelzebub 22,510]

Cameron Mooney looks at which teams outside the top eight can play finals in 2017

extract from above

"MELBOURNE:

Melbourne, to me, out of all of the sides out of the eight look best placed to move in next year.

They have gone to the draft and got in some high level talent, such as Jesse Hogan, Christian Petracca, Clayton Oliver and Angus Brayshaw. These guys will only get better again.

Add that to some great father-son selections in Todd Viney, who will be their next captain and is already a spiritual leader, and young Billy Stretch.

Add that to more experienced players like Tom McDonald, Max Gawn and Nathan Jones, and a few very handy recruits in Bernie Vince and Tom Bugg, and the list has so much upside.

What I like about the Dees is that they seem to be enjoying playing with each other.

Young blokes like Viney just bleed for the jumper and his mates are jumping in behind him.

They want to be there and they desperately want success together. That is the minimum starting point and the signs are good.

The gap between their good and bad games is getting closer and there is a good culture there now.

Paul Roos was criticised initially for his defensive and ugly tactics, but he has taught tis list to defend, win contested ball, and now as they are learning to attack. Next year I’d expect them to take another step under Simon Goodwin."

[stevethemanjordan 6,952]

That'd be 'Jack Viney'.

There's no arguing that we have some really good young talent that will take us for a ride.

They're nearly all midfielders. And we need to be smart about who we put in and around them.

If we can land someone like Hurley next year and inject a couple of pacey and classy disposers in the back-line and wings over the next one or two seasons then I can see us challenging the top 4 in about three or four years when our core group will have played around 100 games.

As Buckenara has said, it's those two elements that we are sorely missing at the moment. Foot-skills and pace. 

The fact that we have top-end talent in Brayshaw, Petracca, Salem, Viney, Oliver and Hogan won't mean a thing if we don't assemble the right players around them. They will only take us so far.

The Hawthorn model is a modern day template that should be used for all clubs who have a bottoming out period. Inside/outside players who can use the footy.

I don't think we'll ever see another side who are as damaging with the ball as they are when it's in dispute. Hawthorn stand alone in that category. During their golden years, nearly every player in their side was damaging by foot. Compare that to us a present and we have a handful of players who are damaging by foot.

I'm just happy we've built a foundation.

 

[hemingway 7,608]

1 hour ago, beelzebub said:

Cameron Mooney looks at which teams outside the top eight can play finals in 2017

extract from above

"MELBOURNE:

Melbourne, to me, out of all of the sides out of the eight look best placed to move in next year.

They have gone to the draft and got in some high level talent, such as Jesse Hogan, Christian Petracca, Clayton Oliver and Angus Brayshaw. These guys will only get better again.

Add that to some great father-son selections in Todd Viney, who will be their next captain and is already a spiritual leader, and young Billy Stretch.

Add that to more experienced players like Tom McDonald, Max Gawn and Nathan Jones, and a few very handy recruits in Bernie Vince and Tom Bugg, and the list has so much upside.

What I like about the Dees is that they seem to be enjoying playing with each other.

Young blokes like Viney just bleed for the jumper and his mates are jumping in behind him.

They want to be there and they desperately want success together. That is the minimum starting point and the signs are good.

The gap between their good and bad games is getting closer and there is a good culture there now.

Paul Roos was criticised initially for his defensive and ugly tactics, but he has taught tis list to defend, win contested ball, and now as they are learning to attack. Next year I’d expect them to take another step under Simon Goodwin."

A great summary by Mooney, thanks for sharing Bub. I think most of us share these sentiments, but it's nice to hear from a footy person that we do have reason to be optimistic. It may not translate into a flag, but future team success and happier times ahead appear on the horizon. Expert list management will be critical and the ability of Goodwin to take the players with him through his own force of personality, vision, and game plan. We now have a group of young players that expect and demand success. Viney is the best example but there are many others exhibiting the same features.

[drdrake 3,058]

We are on an upward trend, lets face it we have been bottomed out for so long that we had to improve at some stage.  Couple of positions still need to be addressed and as mentioned some outside speed but we have this on our list in Hunt, Salem, Kent, Harmes, add in Garlett, Kennedy and H you get another preseason into the younger guys so they can spend more time running higher up the ground.  To compare players I reckon Hunt will become like Isaac Smith.  The best thing this year we have 2 key position players developing their craft in the VFL we have that back up forwards.

A couple of key defenders would be high on the wish list and another ruck option.

[junk 342]

Roos inherited sub standard players, 3 yrs is time to make some sort of  improvement but not great one. WE still need more quality players and hopefully we are now a destination club. it is good to see Harmes,Hunt,O'Mac,Petracca,Stretch and Oliver getting games into them.Unfortunately Brayshaw and Salem have been unavailable. Minchie,Newton and ANB have remained static. White could be an asset. Huelett and Weed are not ready. Max King is probably a bit disappointing.

[Willmoy1947 3,823]

Should we be concerned that the reason for O'Mac  playing so many continuous games is because the feeling is that his brother won't be here  next year.

If that is the case then there must be a good side to this.

[Je Roos Salem 661]

On 6/23/2016 at 7:17 AM, Dr. Gonzo said:

Next year we definitely need to make finals.

Another thing that needs to be taken into account when looking at our improvement is our %.

2013 - 2 wins 50%

2014 - 4 wins 70%

2015 - 7 wins 77%

2016 (to date) - 6 wins 103%

Even if we only win another 2-3 games if we can maintain our % above say 90-95% (based on increased offense not a dour defensive game style) I think it will be another step forward, albeit a baby step. We have a tough run home but to date we've eradicated the 90-100 point losses which has been a hallmark of our failure over the last decade.

Overall we are improving arent we are aiming for sustainable improvement but it's not coming as quick as some (including myself) would like - but I am confident we're on the right track. There are comparisons to the Bailey-era & supporters suffering PTSD (or MFCSS/MSDS) won't believe it til they see it but there are differences to that team, not least of which is the type of players we have now compared to then.

Our improvement has seemed linear under Roos, I'll give you that. Let's hope Goodwin knows what he's doing and it continues

[Binmans PA 26,587]

On 6/22/2016 at 7:38 AM, Lucifer's Hero said:

In one of Roos recent interviews he said his initial plan was:

Year 1 - Defence (22 player team defence, not just the back 6)

Year 2 - Contested Ball (by 22 players)

Year 3 - Attacking Football (Starting from HB)

(And I recall at the beginning he said something about handing over an AFL ready list to a new Coach).

We were 22 players running around doing their own thing with no semblance of team work let alone contested football (remember the 'bruise free' label).  That is why it is taking Roos longer than other teams.  That it is taking so long is an indictment on where we were not on Roos or others now at the club.

Improvement not fast enough for some?  Fair enough.  But Roos did not have much to work with and it had to be done in stages.  Roos wasn't able to get experienced players so he had to (I think reluctantly) play kids.  It is easier to train them from scratch than to 'teach old dogs new tricks' especially if the latter aren't able/willing to learn.

Roos has implemented his plan.  Yeah, he has made some mistakes but I thank God he came to the Dees.

Where are we heading?  Onward and upward!  Only the players and Goodwin's team can decide how far!! 

Whilst I agree with a lot of this, but I'm still convinced that the other important element of Roos' plan was stockpiling draft picks and improving the list from the draft. It doesn't take two years to build defence and contested ball numbers. You can do that across a single season, but we didn't want to win too many and blow our draft position. We kept it respectable (as much as we could with a VFL-like list) and keystones as such defence and contested footy was focused on.

FWIW, this is precisely the correct approach for the football club and we've built brilliantly through the draft and if we continue to do so (outside talent and skill being an important attribute we don't have enough of), I've no doubt we'll have sustained success.