Dear Demonland Number Crunchers; Cap Room/War Chest

[The Song Formerly Known As 6,479]

Dear Demonland Number Crunchers,

Not having the nouse with numbers that others have and getting in early with 2015 Free Agency articles and targets* (see below posted article, and other rumours); if you crunch the numbers of who approximately is paid what at our beloved/dreaded football club (including front-loaded contracts if you are really clever): how much cash do we realistically have to "throw" at a big player next trade period?
And for those who expect a gif from me to further illiterate my point:




*http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/patrick-dangerfield-jeremy-cameron-head-top-10-afl-trade-targets-for-2015/story-fnp04d70-1227094020472

Edited October 17, 2014 by The Song Formerly Known As

[Lucifers Hero 40,364]

I suggest working backwards (with a bit of guesswork):

Savings: - Clark $600K

- Frawley $350K (because his contract had been front ended).

- Delisted players $1.6m (8*$200K)

- Savings from other front ended contracts eg Dawes/Trengrove but these probably offset by renewed contracts eg Dunn/McDonald

Savings of approx $2.5m

Cost of new players Frost $250K), Lumumba ($450K) , Garlett ($350K) = approx $1m; Cost of new draftees: $500K. Total New Costs approx: $1.5m

Other variations: AFL allow pay't up to 105% of cap if offset in other years; sal cap will go up for 'inflation'; savings from contracted delisted players (if any)

On the basis of this 'back-of-the-envelope' calc at least $1m for an FA (front ended so that it tapers off when our young players need to be paid more)

Oh, forgot an additional cost: Big increase to N Jones when he signs new long-term contract but I would hope his is front ended into 2015.

Hope this helps your thinking!

ps couldn't open HS article so can't comment on it

Edited October 17, 2014 by Lucifer's Hero

[Moonshadow 17,677]

Lumumba rumoured to be on $500k pa.

[The Song Formerly Known As 6,479]

I suggest working backwards (with a bit of guesswork):

Savings: - Clark $600K

- Frawley $350K (because his contract had been front ended).

- Delisted players $1.6m (8*$200K)

- Savings from other front ended contracts eg Dawes/Trengrove but these probably offset by renewed contracts eg Dunn/McDonald

Savings of approx $2.5m

Cost of new players Frost $250K), Lumumba ($450K) , Garlett ($350K) = approx $1m; Cost of new draftees: $500K. Total New Costs approx: $1.5m

Other variations: AFL allow pay't up to 105% of cap if offset in other years; sal cap will go up for 'inflation'; savings from contracted delisted players (if any)

On the basis of this 'back-of-the-envelope' calc at least $1m for an FA (front ended so that it tapers off when our young players need to be paid more)

Oh, forgot an additional cost: Big increase to N Jones when he signs new long-term contract but I would hope his is front ended into 2015.

Hope this helps your thinking!

ps couldn't open HS article so can't comment on it

thanks pal.

[demoniac 1,336]

The offset may be an equalisation measure.

It will be harder for a top team to pay under 100% of the cap and thus access the overcap payment.

Rebuilding teams are more likely to be paying 95% which in 2015 equates to being able to spend approximately $500,000 above the cap in 2016.

As a result top clubs may be limited to offering a top free agent a la Dangerfield $750K + a high chance of finals footy/premierships.

A bottom club coming off 2 years of paying 95% of the cap could be able to offer $1,25mil a year in the first 2 years or $1 million more than the top club.

That is enough to make a Dangerfield think about knocking back the Hawks to play for the Dees.

Obviously a Hawthorn would then have to think about trading out good players who they would have kept before this change to allow them to access the overcap payments.

Come to think of it Geelong may be doing the same by letting Varcoe go and the unplanned exit of Christensen may be an attempt at salary cap dumping to allow then to access the overcap in 2016 to help lure Dangerfield.

Either way the effect should be to see more player movement from stronger clubs to weaker clubs unless players at strong clubs take even great market discounts to give their clubs access to overcap payments.

This aligns with the thinking in the NBA that if each team had one player outside the cap the best talent would be more evenly spread among the teams beause instead of sacrificing $5 million to play with other stars in a title contender they'd have to sacrifice far more to do so ie $10 million or $20 million a season.

[rpfc 28,779]

Cap will increase by about $400-500k too.

More money than Jesus, TSFKA...

Edited October 21, 2014 by rpfc

[poita 3,902]

Honestly, if we can't find $2m + a year to spend on player acquisitions, there is something terribly wrong. I wouldn't value our squad at even 80% of Hawthorn's even on a good day, and that doesn't take into account forward loading of contracts..

[Beats 190]

At this time of year this is a difficult (impossible) equation to put together. Blindly speculating I'd say it would be in the range of $1.5m-$2m.

A few factors to consider:

• We have a number of delistings yet to be announced
• Players who have been taken in the ND who have not been listed on an AFL team before are on a 2 year contract set by the AFL
• Typically player contracts comprise a guaranteed base salary, match payments and other incentives/ bonuses (eg. a placing in the b'n'f, number of games played etc)
• The numbers reported in the media, while not wrong, are often incorrect, as it is the players maximum theoretical earnings. For example, the $500k reported to Lumumba will be made up of a base and incentives/ bonuses, without intimate knowledge of the contract any speculation could be well off. (eg the 500k could be a 200k base + 15k per game played)
• There are a number of players out of contract at the end of 2015 who will be getting significant pay rises (Viney, N.Jones, JKH, Salem)
• Rookie player salaries are included in the cap at a discounted amount depending on the number of rookies (50% discount if you have 4 rookies)
• For each Veteran player you have (Jamar/ Dunn/ N.Jones will be veterans in 2016) you get an extra 1.229% added to the cap *I am not 100% sure how this is applied
• The salary cap for 2016 has not been finalised yet, with 2015's cap set at $10.071million and a 4% increase expected it's likely to be around the $10.5mil mark for the 40 main list players and 4 rookies (who are included at a 50% discount)

EDIT: fixed some errors

EDIT #2: http://www.aflplayers.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/CBA-2012-2016-FINAL.pdf

Edited October 21, 2014 by Beats

[grazman 7,451]

While new draftees get a minimum of 2 years I wouldn't be surprised if the club tried to get picks 2 & 3 to commit beyond that.

[Beats 190]

While new draftees get a minimum of 2 years I wouldn't be surprised if the club tried to get picks 2 & 3 to commit beyond that.

I'm sure they will, a la Hogan, Viney & Toumpas in recent years. In the first two years their salary is set by the AFL, as per Schedule C items 2 & 3 of this link - http://www.aflplayer...-2016-FINAL.pdf

For the purpose of this thread, as you can get a pretty accurate idea of what a player is/ will be paid in their first and second years, you can work back to figure out how much we will have at years end to spend on FA.